Technical Analysis – 25 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 412, Target 438, Stop 399

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
Long – Entry 167.0, Target 180.0, Stop 160.5

Singtel Ltd. (ST SP)

Shares closed at the 20dEMA with a surge in volume.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 2.37, Target 2.51 Stop 2.30

Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 1.08 Target 1.20 Stop 1.02

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings Co Ltd (570 HK)

Shares closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
Long – Entry 3.50, Target 3.80, Stop 3.35

China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
Long – Entry 6.65, Target 7.35, Stop 6.30

Coca-Cola Co (KO)

3Q23 Revenue: $12B, +8.1% YoY, beat estimates by $580M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.09, beat estimates by $0.45
FY23 Guidance: Organic revenue growth of 10% to 11%; Effective tax rate is estimated to be 19.0%; Comparable currency neutral EPS growth of 13% to 14% and comparable EPS growth of 7% to 8%, versus $2.48 in 2022; Free cash flow of approximately $9.5bn through cash flow from operations of approximately $11.4bn, less capital expenditures of approximately $1.9bn.
Comment: Coca-Cola raised its annual sales and profit forecasts for the second time this year due to strong consumer demand for its beverages and higher prices. The company reported Q3 results that exceeded expectations. Coca-Cola’s average selling prices rose by 9% in Q3, while overall unit case volumes increased by 2%. The company’s CEO mentioned monitoring the impact of weight-loss drugs but believes Coca-Cola may see the effects later than others. With consumers continuing to be willing to spend on goods sold by Coca-Cola despite the price increases, we anticipate sales to remain strong in the last quarter, especially with the holiday season coming. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $53 to $58. Positive Outlook.

可口可乐 (KO)

23财年第三季营收：120亿美元, 同比增幅8.1%，超预期5.8亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.09美元，超预期0.45美元
23财年指引：有机收入增长10%至11%；实际税率估计为19.0%；可比较货币中性每股收益增长13%至14%，可比较每股收益增长7%至8%，2022年为2.48美元；自由现金流约95亿美元，其中经营现金流约114亿美元，资本支出减少约19亿美元。
短评：由于消费者对其饮料的强劲需求和价格上涨，可口可乐今年第二次上调了年度销售和利润预期。该公司公布的第三季度业绩超出预期。可口可乐第三季度的平均售价上涨了9%，而整体单位箱销量增长了2%。该公司的首席执行官提到了监测减肥药的影响，但他认为可口可乐可能比其他公司更久看到效果。尽管价格上涨，但消费者仍然愿意在可口可乐销售的商品上消费，我们预计上一季度的销售将保持强劲，尤其是随着假日季节的到来。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：53美元至58美元。积极前景。

General Electric Co (GE)

3Q23 Revenue: $17.3B, +19.6% YoY, beat estimates by $1.61B
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.82, beat estimates by $0.26
FY23 Guidance: Organic revenue growth in low teens prior guidance of Low-double-digit; Adjusted EPS of $2.55 to $2.65 vs. the consensus of $2.34 and prior guidance of $2.10 to $2.30; Free cash flow of $4.7 to $5.1bn vs. prior guidance of $4.1 to $4.6bn.
Comment: General Electric delivered strong quarterly results, beating estimates. For FY23 it raised profit and free cash flow forecasts, driven by growth in its aerospace business. GE’s aerospace operations continue to experience rapid growth driven by robust demand and solid execution. The company is well positioned for continued healthy results, thanks to the durable positive momentum in the aerospace unit and improvements in the renewable energy business. GE is also spinning off its power-generation and renewable-energy units into a standalone business called GE Vernova, which is planned for 2Q24. This will leave GE Aerospace as a standalone business that the company expects will see higher sales and profits through FY25 as air travel continues to rebound after the pandemic. However, there may be some issues hindering the supply of its LEAP jet engine deliveries due to a shortage of both parts as well as labour. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $110 to $120. Neutral Outlook.

通用电气 (GE)

23财年第三季营收：173亿美元, 同比增幅19.6%，超预期16.1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.82美元，超预期0.26美元
23财年指引：有机收入增长低于10%，之前的指导是低两位数；调整后每股收益为2.55美元至2.65美元，市场预期为2.34美元，此前指引为2.10美元至2.30美元；自由现金流为47亿至51亿美元，此前指引为41亿至46亿美元。
短评：通用电气发布了强劲的季度业绩，超出预期。在航空业务增长的推动下，该公司上调了23财年的利润和自由现金流预测。在强劲需求和稳健执行的推动下，公司的航空业务继续快速增长。由于航空航天部门的持续积极势头和可再生能源业务的改善，该公司已经为持续健康的业绩做好了准备。通用电气还将其发电和可再生能源部门分拆为一个名为GE Vernova的独立业务，计划于24年第二季度进行。这将使通用电气航空航天公司成为一个独立的业务，该公司预计，随着航空旅行在疫情后继续反弹，到25财年，该公司的销售额和利润将会增加。然而，由于零件和劳动力短缺，可能会有一些问题阻碍其LEAP喷气发动机的供应。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：110美元至120美元。中性前景。

3M Co (MMM)

3Q23 Revenue: $8.31B, -3.6% YoY, beat estimates by $280M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.68, beat estimates by $0.33
FY23 Guidance: Raise adjusted EPS to be in the range of $8.95 to $9.15 ($8.88 consensus) versus $8.60 to $9.10 prior. Adjusted operating cash flow is estimated in the range of $6.5 to $6.9 billion, contributing to 100 to 110% adjusted free cash flow conversion. Adjusted full-year total sales growth is forecasted to decline by approximately -5% versus a decline of -5 to -1 % prior.
Comment: 3M reported strong Q3 earnings and raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast. The company faced slow demand in some sectors but managed to counteract it through price increases and cost savings. 3M’s financial strategy includes managing inflation through price hikes, although this approach could be challenging amid the current economic uncertainty. Operating margins saw improvements, especially in segments like Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, and Health Care. The company noted weak demand for consumer electronics, especially in China and Europe alongside a soft back-to-school season and the impact of rising interest rates. 3M also incurred a significant $4.2bn charge to settle lawsuits related to earplugs used by US military personnel. Litigation liabilities continue to be a key factor affecting the company’s performance. Despite these challenges, 3M returned $828mn to shareholders through dividends and reduced its net debt. Furthermore, 3M raised its FY23 adjusted earnings per share outlook and is working on a healthcare business spin-off. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $85to $95. Neutral Outlook.

3M公司 (MMM)

23财年第三季营收：83.1亿美元, 同比跌幅3.6%，超预期2.8亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.68美元，超预期0.33美元
23财年指引：将调整后的每股收益提高至8.95美元至9.15美元，市场共识为8.88美，而之前的预期为8.60美元至9.10美元。调整后的经营现金流估计在65亿至69亿美元之间，调整后的自由现金流转化率为100至110%。调整后的全年总销售增长预计将下降约5%，而之前的下降幅度为1%至5%。
短评：3M公布了强劲的第三季度收益，并上调了全年调整后利润预期。该公司在某些行业面临需求放缓，但通过提价和节约成本成功抵消了这一影响。3M的财务策略包括通过价格上涨来控制通货膨胀，尽管这种方法在当前经济不确定的情况下可能具有挑战性。营业利润率有所提高，尤其是在安全和工业、交通和电子以及医疗保健等领域。该公司指出，消费电子产品需求疲软，尤其是在中国和欧洲，再加上开学季疲软和利率上升的影响。3M还支付了42亿美元的巨额费用，以了结与美国军事人员使用耳塞有关的诉讼。诉讼责任仍是影响公司业绩的关键因素。尽管面临这些挑战，3M还是通过股息向股东返还了8.28亿美元，并减少了净债务。此外，3M上调了23财年调整后每股收益预期，并正在着手剥离一项医疗保健业务。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：85美元至95美元。中性前景。

Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

1Q24 Revenue: $56.5B, +12.8% YoY, beat estimates by $1.95B
1Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.99, beat estimates by $0.34
2Q24 Guidance: COGS between $19.4bn to $19.6bn, including approximately $500mn of amortisation of acquired intangible assets from the Activision acquisition. It expects operating expense of $15.bn to $15.6bn, including approximately $400mn from purchase accounting adjustments, integration and transaction-related cost from the Activision acquisition. Other income and expense should be roughly negative $500mn, as interest income will be more than offset by interest expense, primarily due to a reduction in its investment portfolio balance and the issuance of short-term debt, both for the Activision acquisition. The company expects its Q2 effective tax rate to be between 19% and 20%.
Comment: Microsoft reported a strong fiscal first quarter beating both revenue and EPS estimates. The Azure cloud services sales grew by 29%, indicating a rise in demand. Microsoft’s CEO has been reinvigorating the company’s product lineup with OpenAI-based features in Office, Windows, search, and security software. Azure sales were boosted by the cloud service that allows customers to use OpenAI products. Microsoft has invested heavily in AI, and its results demonstrate the effectiveness of its strategy. Microsoft’s focus on AI-driven technologies is attracting corporate customers and enhancing its financial performance. It will soon release the corporate version of Microsoft 365 Copilot which will be available for an extra monthly fee. Microsoft is looking to bolster its ad sales, compete with Google, and expand its cloud offerings with AI tools. Additionally, the acquisition of Activision Blizzard for $69bn is expected to contribute to future growth, particularly in mobile gaming. Looking ahead, with all the AI investments, we expect to see more progress in Microsoft’s financials in the coming quarters. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $335 to $355. Positive Outlook.

微软 (MSFT)

24财年第一季调整后营收：565亿美元, 同比增幅12.8%，超预期19.5亿美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.99美元，超预期0.34美元
24财年第二季指引：销售成本在194亿至196亿美元之间，其中包括收购动视所获得的约5亿美元无形资产摊销。公司预计营业费用为15美元。其中约4亿美元来自收购动视的会计调整、整合和交易相关成本。其他收入和支出将大致为负5亿美元，因为利息收入将被利息支出所抵消，这主要是由于其投资组合余额的减少和发行短期债务，两者都是为了收购动视。该公司预计第二季度的有效税率将在19%至20%之间。
短评：微软公布的第一财季业绩强劲，超过了收入和每股收益预期。Azure云服务销售额增长了29%，表明需求有所上升。这位微软的首席执行官在Office、Windows、搜索和安全软件中推出了基于OpenAI的功能，重振了公司的产品线。Azure的销售受到云服务的推动，该服务允许客户使用OpenAI产品。微软在人工智能方面投入了大量资金，其结果证明了其战略的有效性。微软对人工智能驱动技术的关注正在吸引企业客户，并提高其财务业绩。它将很快发布微软365 Copilot的企业版，这将需要额外的月费。微软正在寻求提振其广告销售，与谷歌竞争，并通过人工智能工具扩展其云服务。此外，以690亿美元收购动视暴雪预计将为未来的增长做出贡献，尤其是在移动游戏领域。展望未来，随着所有的人工智能投资，我们预计微软的财务状况将在未来几个季度取得更多进展。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：335美元至355美元。积极前景。

Alphabet Inc (GOOG)

3Q23 Revenue: $76.79B, +11.1% YoY, beat estimates by $980M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.55, beat estimates by $0.10
4Q23 Guidance: No guidance.
Comment: Alphabet’s cloud business, Google Cloud, experienced slower growth in Q3, with revenues rising by 22.5%, down from 28% in the previous quarter. This slowdown led to a decline in Alphabet’s stock price, even though the company exceeded profit and sales expectations. Google Cloud’s operating income improved from a $440mn loss to $266mn in Q3. The disappointing performance of Google Cloud raised concerns about its ability to compete with Azure and AWS. Cloud growth has been affected by a global economic slowdown and reduced spending on cloud-related services, including AI tools. Google’s advertising business remains robust, driven by strength in some sectors like retail and travel. Google is working on embedding AI capabilities into search and other applications. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $130 to $145. Neutral Outlook.

谷歌 (GOOG)

23财年第三季调整后营收：767.9亿美元, 同比增幅11.1%，超预期9.8亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.55美元，超预期0.1美元
23财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
短评：Alphabet的云业务谷歌cloud在第三季度增长放缓，收入增长22.5%，低于上一季度的28%。这种放缓导致Alphabet股价下跌，尽管该公司的利润和销售都超出了预期。谷歌Cloud第三季度的营业收入从亏损4.4亿美元改善至2.66亿美元。谷歌Cloud令人失望的表现引发了人们对其与Azure和AWS竞争能力的担忧。云增长受到全球经济放缓和云相关服务(包括人工智能工具)支出减少的影响。谷歌的广告业务依然强劲，主要受零售和旅游等行业的强劲推动。谷歌正致力于将人工智能功能嵌入搜索和其他应用程序。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：130美元至145美元。中性前景。

Visa Inc (V)

4Q23 Revenue: $8.6B, -10.3% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
4Q23Non-GAAP EPS: $2.33, beat estimates by $009
1Q24 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $2.24, rose from $2.16 in the previous quarter and $1.93 a year ago. Total operating expenses of $3.06B declined from $3.10B in the prior quarter and climbed from $2.70B in the year-ago period.
Dividend: Visa declares $0.52 quarterly dividend, up 15.6% QoQ
Share buyback: The board of directors authorized a new $25.0 billion multi-year class A common stock share repurchase program.
Comment: Visa believes that FY24 will be as close to a normal year. Overall inflation continues to moderate is many of its markets. New flows and value-added services will continue to grow faster than consumer payments. Consumer spending remains resilient, and cross-boarder transactions continue to recover. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $225 to $240. Neutral Outlook.

威士 (V)

23财年第三季调整后营收：45.3亿美元, 同比跌幅13.5%，逊预期6,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.85美元，超预期0.03美元
23财年第四季指引：Non-GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，高于分析师平均预期的2.24美元，高于上一季度的2.16美元和一年前的1.93美元。总运营费用为30.6亿美元，低于上一季度的30.1亿美元，但高于去年同期的27.7亿美元。
股息：公司宣布季度股息0.52美元，环比增长15.6%
股票回购：董事会批准了一项新的250亿美元的多年期A类普通股回购
短评：公司认为，24财年将接近正常年份。许多市场的整体通胀继续放缓。新流量和增值服务的增长速度将继续快于消费者支付。消费者支出保持弹性，跨境交易继续复苏。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：225美元至240美元。中性前景。

Texas Instruments Inc (TXN)

3Q23 Revenue: $4.53B, -13.5% YoY, miss estimates by $60M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.85, beat estimates by $0.03
4Q23 Guidance: Revenue in the range of $3.93 billion to $4.27 billion and earnings per share between $1.35 and $1.57. Expect 2023 effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%.
Comment: Its 3Q23 revenue by market in the third quarter was mixed, with automotive and enterprise systems growing, while communications equipment and industrial declined. Personal electronics was up significantly, but off of a low base. The company’s continued growth in the automotive market is a positive sign, as it is a large and growing market for semiconductors. The weakness in the industrial market is more concerning, as it is a cyclical market that is often sensitive to economic downturns. Texas Instruments is confident in the long-term growth of semiconduct demand, especially in industrial and automotive markets. It is investing in 300 millimeter manufacturing to provide customers with geopolitically dependable capacity. The company expects to spend $5 billion per year on capital expenditures through 2026 to support growth, and it is replenishing its inventory to support growth and provide high levels of customer service. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $130 to $150. Negative Outlook.

德州仪器 (TXN)

23财年第三季调整后营收：45.3亿美元, 同比跌幅13.5%，逊预期6,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.85美元，超预期0.03美元
23财年第四季指引：营收在39.3亿美元至42.7亿美元之间，每股收益在1.35美元至1.57美元之间。预计2023年的有效税率约为13%至14%。
短评：该公司第三季度按市场划分的营收喜忧参半，汽车和企业系统营收增长，而通信设备和工业设备营收下滑。个人电子产品销售大幅增长，但基数较低。该公司在汽车市场的持续增长是一个积极的信号，因为汽车市场是一个巨大且不断增长的半导体市场。工业市场的疲软更令人担忧，因为这是一个周期性市场，往往对经济下滑很敏感。德州仪器对半导体需求的长期增长充满信心，特别是在工业和汽车市场。它正在投资300毫米制造，为客户提供地缘政治上可靠的产能。该公司预计，到2026年，每年将在资本支出上投入50亿美元，以支持增长，并正在补充库存，以支持增长，并提供高水平的客户服务。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：130美元至150美元。负面前景。

RTX Corp (RTX)

3Q23 Adjusted Revenue: $19.0B, +11.8% YoY, beat estimates by $800M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.25, beat estimates by $0.03
FY23 Guidance: Reported sales of c.$68.5B, up from $67.5B-$68.5B. Adjusted sales of c.$74B vs. $72.98B, up from $73.0B-$74.0B. Adjusted EPS of $4.98 – $5.02 vs. $5.02 consensus from $4.95 – $5.05
Share repurchase: Full year share buyback spending of approximately $12.8 billion of RTX shares, up from $3.0 billion. Board of directors has approved a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program commencing almost immediately.
Comment: As of 3Q23, the company backlog was $190 billion, including $115 billion of commercial and $75 billion of defense. For the remainder of the year, Raytheon expects strong demand for holiday and business travel, supporting continued aftermarket strength for both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft. On the defense side, the elevated threat environment is continuing to drive increased defense spending globally. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $75 to $85. Neutral Outlook.

雷神科技 (RTX)

23财年第三季调整后营收：190亿美元, 同比增幅11.8%，超预期8亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.25美元，超预期0.03欧元
23财年第四季指引：报告销售额685亿加元，高于675亿至685亿美元。调整后销售额约为740亿美元，高于729.8亿美元市场共识，此前区间为730亿至740亿美元。调整后每股收益为4.98至 5.02美元，市场预期为4.95至5.05美元，每股收益为5.02美元
股票回购：全年股票回购支出约为128亿美元，高于之前的30亿美元。董事会已经批准了一项100亿美元的加速股票回购计划，该计划将立即启动。
短评：截至23年第三季度，该公司的积压订单为1,900亿美元，其中包括1150亿美元的商业订单和750亿美元的国防订单。在今年余下的时间里，雷神公司预计假日和商务旅行的需求将会强劲，这将支持宽体和窄体飞机的售后市场持续走强。在国防方面，日益加剧的威胁环境继续推动全球国防开支的增加。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：75美元至85美元。中性前景。

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

3Q23 Revenue: €3.4B, +10.6% YoY
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: €0.33
4Q23 Guidance: Total MAUs of 601 million; Total Premium Subscribers of 235 million; Total Revenue of €3.7 billion.
Comment: In 3Q23, Spotify’s MAUs grew by 26% YoY to 574mn, 2mn above the previous guidance. The number of subscribers grew by 16% YoY to 226mn, 2mn above the previous guidance. The company has a second largest quarter for MAU net addition and remains upbeat for its 1bn MAU target by 2030. Spotify is seeing strong momentum in its advertising business across both music and podcasting. It will launch audiobooks offering in the US soon. It will also plan to use generative AI tools to improve its advertising products. Its leading position in the music streaming market is intact. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $65 to $75. Neutral Outlook.

Spotify (SPOT)

23财年第三季营收：34.0亿美元, 同比增幅10.6%
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.33欧元
23财年第四季指引：总每月活跃用户数为6.01亿；总付费用户2.35亿；总营收为37亿欧元。
短评：在23年第三季度，Spotify的每月活跃用户数同比增长26%，达到5.74亿，比之前的指导值高出200万。用户数量同比增长16%，达到2.26亿，比之前的预测高出200万。该公司在第三季度的每月活跃用户数净增额位居第二，并对到2030年实现10亿MAU的目标保持乐观。Spotify在音乐和播客领域的广告业务发展势头强劲。它将很快在美国推出有声读物。它还计划使用生成式人工智能工具来改进其广告产品。它在音乐流媒体市场的领先地位没有动摇。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：165美元至190美元。积极前景。