KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 24 March 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Roblox Corp. (RBLX US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 60, Target 68, Stop 56
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Docusign, Inc. (DOCU US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 86.0 Target 96.0 Stop 81.0

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Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd. (BTH SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with more volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.360, Target 0.390, Stop 0.345
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Venture Corp Ltd. (VMS SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 12.60 Target 13.60, Stop 12.10

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H World Group Ltd (1179 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 29.2, Target 31.6, Stop 28.0
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Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)
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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is negative.
  • Long – Entry 18.9 Target 20.5, Stop 18.1

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Nio Inc (NIO)

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $2.7B, +12.0% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
  • 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.43, miss estimates by $0.10
  • FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Nio Inc’s fourth quarter net loss widened to RMB7.1bn, despite record vehicle deliveries of 72,689 vehicles for Q4 and 221,970 vehicles in FY24. Its full-year revenue grew 18.2% to RMB65.7bn, with vehicle sales rising 13.2% in Q4 to RMB17.5bn. Higher sales volume was offset by lower average selling prices and increased costs. In Q4, R&D expenses fell 8.5% YoY to RMB3.6bn, but selling, general and administrative expenses costs surged 22.8% to RMB4.9bn. Nio maintains confidence in its liquidity for the next 12 months. Despite aiming to enhance profitability by cutting costs through technology, optimizing efficiency, and scaling growth, we believe that Nio will continue to face pricing pressures from the intensifying competition in China’s electric-vehicle market. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $4 to $5. Negative Outlook.

蔚来汽车 (NIO)

  • 24财年第四季营收：27亿美元，同比增長12.0%，逊预期7,000万美元。
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.43美元，逊预期0.10美元。
  • 25财年指引：未提供指引。
  • 短评：蔚来汽车在第四季度的净亏损扩大至71亿人民币，尽管该季度汽车交付量创下纪录，达到72,689辆，全年交付量为221,970辆。全年营收增长18.2%，达到657亿人民币，其中第四季度汽车销售额增长13.2%，达到175亿人民币。然而，销量增长被平均售价下降和成本上升所抵消。在第四季度，研发费用同比下降8.5%至36亿人民币，但销售、一般及行政费用激增22.8%，达到49亿人民币。蔚来汽车对未来12个月的流动性表示信心。尽管公司计划通过技术降本、优化效率和扩大规模来提高盈利能力，但在中国电动汽车市场竞争日益激烈的情况下，蔚来汽车仍将面临定价压力。25财年第一季度建议交易区间为4美元至5美元。负面前景。

Carnival Corp (CCL)

  • 1Q25 Revenue: $5.81B, +7.4% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  • 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.13, beat estimates by $0.11
  • 2Q25 Guidance: Expects adjusted EBITDA to be $1.3bn, below consensus of $1.35bn; expects ALBDs to be 24.2mn, below consensus of 24.28mn; expects adjusted EPS to be $0.22, below consensus of $0.23; expects adjusted net income to be $285.0mn, below consensus of $303.8mn.
  • FY25 Guidance: Expect adjusted EBITDA to be $6.7bn; expects adjusted EPS – diluted to be $1.83, above consensus of $1.76; expects adjusted net income to be $2.49, above consensus of $2.43; expects ALBDs to be 96.2mn, below consensus of 96.32mn.
  • Comment: Carnival Corp delivered strong quarterly results and raised its annual forecast, supported by resilient customer spending. The company expects its FY25 occupancy rate to align with last year’s record levels. Industry-wide demand also remains robust, with AAA Travel projecting a record 19mn Americans will take ocean cruises in 2025, a 4.5% increase from the 18.2mn recorded in 2024. This marks the third consecutive year of record passenger volumes, underscoring the sector’s continued expansion following its post-pandemic recovery. However, Carnival cautioned about “heightened macroeconomic volatility” amid escalating trade tensions. While consumers have shown a strong appetite for premium voyages and onboard spending, new tariff policies under U.S. President Donald Trump could drive inflation higher, potentially pressuring discretionary spending. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $18 to $23. Neutral Outlook.

嘉年华集团 (CCL)

  • 25财年第一季营收：58.1亿美元，同比增长7.4%，超出预期7,000万美元。
  • 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.13美元，超出预期0.11美元。
  • 25财年第二季指引：预计调整后EBITDA为13亿美元，低于市场一致预期的13.5亿美元；预计ALBDs（用下泊位日）为2420万，低于市场一致预期的2428万；预计调整后每股收益为0.22美元，低于市场一致预期的0.23美元；预计调整后净利润为2.85亿美元，低于市场一致预期的3.038亿美元。
  • 25财年全年指引：预计调整后EBITDA为67亿美元；预计调整后稀释后每股收益为1.83美元，高于市场一致预期的1.76美元；预计调整后净利润为24.9亿美元，高于市场一致预期的24.3亿美元；预计ALBDs为9620万，低于市场一致预期的9632万。
  • 短评：嘉年华集团公布了强劲的季度业绩，并提高了其年度预测，这得益于消费者支出的韧性。该公司预计其25财年的入住率将与去年的创纪录水平保持一致。行业整体需求依然强劲，美国汽车协会旅游部（AAA Travel）预测，2025年将有创纪录的1900万美国人选择海上邮轮旅行，较2024年的1820万人增长4.5%。这标志着连续第三年创下乘客数量纪录，凸显了该行业在疫情后复苏后的持续扩张。然而，嘉年华警告称，在贸易紧张局势升级的背景下，“宏观经济波动性加剧”。虽然消费者对高端航行和船上消费表现出强烈的兴趣，但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的新关税政策可能会推高通胀，从而可能对可自由支配支出造成压力。25财年第二季建议交易区间：18美元至23美元。中性前景。