KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 24 July 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Samsara Inc. (IOT US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 37.5, Target 40.5, Stop 36.0
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Appian Corp. (APPN US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 35.30, Target 38.30, Stop 33.80

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Dyna-Mac Holdings Ltd. (DMHL SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.520, Target 0.570, Stop 0.495

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)

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  • Shares closed a one-month high above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.500 Target 0.530, Stop 0.485

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China Construction Bank Corp (939 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 5.44, Target 5.86, Stop 5.23
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Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 3.42, Target 3.70, Stop 3.28

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Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: €3.81B, +20.2% YoY, beat estimates by €410M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: €1.33
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect to add over 13mn monthly active users, including 5mn premium accounts, forecasting total MAUs of 639mn; Expect revenue of €4bn, operating income of €405mn, and gross margin of 30.2%.
  • Comment: Spotify’s strong performance highlighted the success of its efforts to enhance profitability. Last December, the company laid off 17% of its employees, launched audiobooks in several markets, and increased subscription prices for the second time in the year, with individual plans rising to $11.99 in the U.S. Additionally, the number of paying subscribers grew to 246mn in 2Q24, slightly exceeding market expectations. While user numbers increased across all regions, monthly active users (MAUs) were slightly below market expectations due to ongoing adjustments in marketing strategies. Nevertheless, the company anticipates further MAU growth in 3Q24. Moreover, Spotify provided better-than-expected guidance, reflecting management’s optimism for 3Q24. Expectations of rate cuts are also likely to drive higher consumer spending, boosting the company’s subscriber count. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $300 to $360. Positive Outlook.

Spotify (SPOT)

  • 24财年第二季营收：38.1亿欧元，同比增幅20.2%，超预期4.1亿欧元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.33欧元
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计每月新增1300多万活跃用户，其中包括500万付费用户，预计总每月活跃用户数为6.39亿；预计收入为40亿欧元，营业收入为4.05亿欧元，毛利率为30.2%。
  • 短评：Spotify的强劲表现凸显了其提高盈利能力的努力取得的成功。去年12月，该公司裁掉了17%的员工，在多个市场推出有声读物，并在年内第二次提高订阅价格，美国的个人用户付费计划价格上涨至11.99美元。此外，付费用户数量在24年第二季度增长至2.46亿，略高于市场预期。虽然所有地区的用户数量都在增长，但由于营销策略的不断调整，月活跃用户(MAU)略低于市场预期。尽管如此，该公司预计第三季度的MAU将进一步增长。此外，Spotify提供了好于预期的指引，反映了管理层对24年第三季度的乐观态度。对降息的预期也可能推动消费者支出增加，从而推高该公司的用户数量。24年第三季度建议交易区间：300至360美元。积极前景。

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $21.8B, -1.4% YoY, miss estimates by $440M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.79, miss estimates by $0.20
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect consolidated revenue to be approximately $93.0bn, compared to a consensus of $92.83bn; consolidating adjusted margin expected to approximately 9.4%; Capex expected to be approximately $4.0bn; Target around $500mn in share repurchase.
  • Comment: UPS reported weak results as the company faced a prolonged decline in package volume. Net profit fell sharply, dropping 32% year-over-year. Despite lowering its FY24 revenue forecast, it remains above market expectations. The company is grappling with weak freight demand and soft pricing in the shipping sector, as well as increased competition and customers committing to long-term contracts with other delivery companies. To address these challenges, UPS plans to enhance its services and productivity to win back customers once contracts expire. Additionally, UPS announced the sale of its trucking business, Coyote Logistics, to RXO, Inc., with the transaction expected to close by year-end. This sale will free up cash, which UPS plans to use for share repurchases totaling around $500 million. The company also recently entered into an agreement to acquire Mexican express delivery company Estafeta, aiming to complete the acquisition by the end of the year.  3Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $140. Negative Outlook.

联合包裹服务 (UPS)

  • 24财年第二季营收：218亿美元，同比跌幅1.4%，逊预期4.4亿美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.79美元，逊预期0.2美元
  • 24财年指引：预计合并收入约为930亿美元，而市场预期为928.3亿美元；合并调整后的利润率预计约为9.4%；资本支出预计约为40亿美元；目标是回购约5亿美元的股票。
  • 短评：由于包裹数量的下降持续，联合包裹公司公布了疲软的业绩。净利润大幅下降，同比下降32%。尽管下调了其24财年收入预期，但仍高于市场预期。该公司正在努力应对货运需求疲软、航运业定价疲软、竞争加剧以及客户承诺与其他快递公司签订长期合同等问题。为了应对这些挑战，UPS计划提高服务和生产力，以便在合同到期后赢回客户。此外，UPS宣布将其卡车运输业务Coyote Logistics出售给RXO, Inc.，交易预计将于年底完成。此次出售将释放现金，联合包裹计划用这些现金回购总计约5亿美元的股票。该公司最近还签署了收购墨西哥快递公司Estafeta的协议，目标是在今年年底完成收购。24年第三季度建议交易区间：115至140美元。负面前景。

General Motors Co. (GM)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $47.97B, +7.2% YoY, beat estimates by $2.65B
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.06, beat estimates by $0.36
  • 2Q24 Dividend: General Motors declares $0.12/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 0.97%; Payable Sept. 19; for shareholders of record Sept. 6; ex-div Sept. 6.
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect adj. diluted EPS of $9.50 – $10.50, compared to prior guidance of $9.00 to $10.00; adjusted automotive FCF expected between $9.5bn to $11.5bn, compared with $8.5bn to $10.5bn previously.
  • Comment: General Motors reported strong results, driven by robust U.S. demand that offset weak demand in China. Profits were primarily fueled by the demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The company saw a 3% increase in deliveries in North America, but deliveries fell 26.3% in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa region, with a steep 298.1% decline in China. GM continues to restructure its unprofitable operations, including its autonomous vehicle and China businesses. However, the market views sales volumes as peaking and anticipates more challenges in the second half of the year, especially with significant losses in electric vehicles (EVs), Cruise, and the China market. In China, GM is working on reducing inventories, aligning production with demand, and cutting fixed costs. The company expects its EV business to be profitable on a production basis once it reaches an output of 200,000 units by the end of the year. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $40 to $52. Neutral Outlook.

通用汽车 (GM)

  • 24财年第二季营收：479.7亿美元，同比增幅7.2%，超预期26.5亿美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.06美元，超预期0.36美元
  • 24财年第二季股息：通用汽车宣布每股0.12美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期股息率未0.97%；9月19日为付息日；9月6日为股东登记日及除息日。
  • 24财年指引：预计稀释后每股收益为9.50至10.50美元，此前指引为9.00至10.00美元；调整后的汽车业务自由现金流预期在95亿至115亿美元之间，此前为85亿至105亿美元。
  • 短评：通用汽车公布了强劲的业绩，受美国强劲需求的推动，抵消了中国需求的疲软。利润主要来自对内燃机(ICE)汽车的需求。该公司在北美的交付量增长了3%，但在亚太、中东和非洲地区的交付量下降了26.3%，在中国的交付量急剧下降了298.1%。通用汽车继续重组其不盈利的业务，包括自动驾驶汽车和中国业务。然而，市场认为销量已经见顶，预计下半年将面临更多挑战，尤其是在电动汽车、Cruise和中国市场出现重大亏损的情况下。在中国，通用汽车正在努力减少库存，使生产与需求保持一致，并削减固定成本。现代汽车预计，到今年年底，电动汽车的产量将达到20万辆，以生产为基础实现盈利。24年第三季度建议交易区间：40至52美元。中性前景。

Coca-Cola Co. (KO)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $12.4B, +3.3% YoY, beat estimates by $650M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.84, beat estimates by $0.03
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect organic revenue growth of 9% to 10%; Expect currency-neutral EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 13% to 15%; Expect comparable EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 5% to 6%, versus $2.69 in 2023; Expect to generate FCF (non-GAAP) of approx. $9.2bn through cash flow from operations of approximately $11.4bn, less capex of approximately $2.2bn.
  • Comment: Coca-Cola posted strong results and raised its FY24 outlook, exceeding expectations despite ongoing challenges in U.S. consumption levels. Unlike its rival Pepsi, which reported weaker U.S. consumer demand, Coca-Cola saw global unit case volume growth, although there was a slight dip in North America. The company’s updated guidance reflects positive business momentum and confidence in its ability to execute and deliver on plans for the rest of the year. Coca-Cola anticipates rising demand for the remainder of the year and is focusing on partnerships with food service customers to promote food and drink combo meals. However, the company expects foreign currency headwinds to impact its results in the current quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $62 to $70. Positive Outlook.

可口可乐 (KO)

  • 24财年第二季营收：124亿美元，同比增幅3.3%，超预期6.5亿美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.84美元，超预期0.03美元
  • 24财年指引：预计有机收入将增长9%至10%；预计货币中性每股收益(Non-GAAP)增长13%至15%；预计可比每股收益(Non-GAAP)将增长5%至6%，而2023年为2.69美元；预计产生的自由现金流(Non-GAAP)约为92亿美元，运营现金流约为114亿美元，扣除资本支出约22亿美元。
  • 短评：尽管美国消费水平面临持续挑战，但可口可乐公司公布了强劲的业绩，并上调了24财年的前景，超出了预期。与其竞争对手百事可乐报告美国消费者需求疲软不同，可口可乐的全球单位箱销量有所增长，不过北美市场略有下滑。该公司最新的指导反映了积极的业务势头和对其执行和交付今年剩余时间计划的能力的信心。可口可乐预计今年剩余时间的需求将会上升，并将重点放在与食品服务客户的合作关系上，以推广食品和饮料组合餐。然而，该公司预计外汇不利因素将影响其当前季度的业绩。24年第三季度建议交易区间：62至70美元。中性前景。

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $25.5B, +2.3% YoY, beat estimates by $760M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.52, miss estimates by $0.10
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Tesla reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. The company’s electric vehicle deliveries declined for the second consecutive quarter due to increasing competition and slow demand from a lack of affordable new models. Although Tesla’s total revenue increased, automotive revenue fell 7% to $19.0bn in 2Q24, down from $21.27bn in 2Q23. Sales of regulatory credits nearly tripled year-over-year to a record $890mn in 2Q24. To boost demand, Tesla has been cutting prices while simultaneously increasing spending on AI projects. The company announced it is on track to produce new, more affordable vehicles in the first half of 2025, though these models will achieve less cost reduction than previously expected. Cybertruck production remains on track to achieve profitability by the end of the year. Additionally, Tesla delays its robotaxis from August to October and expects its self-driving software to be capable of operating vehicles without human supervision next year, contingent on technological advancements and regulatory approval. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $280. Neutral Outlook.

特斯拉 (TSLA)

  • 24财年第二季营收：255亿美元，同比增幅2.3%，超预期7.6亿美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.52美元，逊预期0.10美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：特斯拉公布的第二季度收益低于预期。由于竞争加剧以及缺乏价格合理的新车型导致需求放缓，该公司的电动汽车交付量连续第二个季度下降。尽管特斯拉的总收入有所增长，但汽车业务收入在24年第二季度下降了7%，从23年第二季度的227.7亿美元降至190亿美元。监管信贷的销售额同比增长近两倍，至创纪录的8.9亿美元。为了提振需求，特斯拉一直在降价，同时增加对人工智能项目的支出。该公司宣布，它将在2025年上半年生产新的、更实惠的汽车，尽管这些车型的成本降低幅度将低于此前的预期。赛博卡车的生产仍有望在今年年底前实现盈利。此外，特斯拉将其自动驾驶出租车从8月推迟到10月，并预计其自动驾驶软件明年能够在没有人类监督的情况下运行车辆，这取决于技术进步和监管部门的批准。24年第三季度建议交易区间：200至280美元。中性前景。

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $84.74B, +13.6% YoY, beat estimates by $450M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.89, beat estimates by $0.04
  • 2Q24 Dividend: Alphabet declares $0.20/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 0.44%; Payable Sept. 16; for shareholders of record Sept. 9; ex-div Sept. 9.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Alphabet surpassed second-quarter revenue and profit expectations thanks to robust digital advertising sales during the Olympics and elections in several countries this year, as well as increasing demand for its cloud computing services. The company reported a 14% YoY increase in total revenue to US$84.74bn, driven by an 11% rise in ad sales to US$64.6bn and a 28.8% increase in cloud service revenue to US$10.35bn. Net income rose 28.6% to US$23.6bn. Ad sales in its YouTube division rose 13% to US$8.67bn. Despite the strong performance, Alphabet flagged high capital expenditures for the year, with US$13bn spent in the June quarter and expectations of at least US$12bn per quarter for the rest of 2024. Its CEO highlighted ongoing AI developments and potential future revenue from AI products. The company also announced plans to retain third-party cookies in its Chrome browser. Revenue from Alphabet’s investments including Waymo, rose 28% to US$365mn, with a planned multi-year US$5bn investment in Waymo. The growing investment by cloud customers in new AI features has led to competition among cloud computing companies, such as Alphabet, to provide enhanced AI offerings. Investors are pouring billions of dollars into this technology to drive advancements in AI. Despite spending more on technology to enhance its services, we expect Alphabet’s service revenue to grow alongside its spending. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $175 to $190. Positive Outlook.

Alphabet (GOOG)

  • 24财年第二季营收：847.4亿美元，同比增幅13.6%，超预期4.5亿美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.89美元，超预期0.04美元
  • 24年第二季度股息：Alphabet宣布每股0.20美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期股息率为0.44%；9月16日为付息日；9月9日为股东登记日及除息日。
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：Alphabet第二季度营收和利润超出预期，这得益于今年奥运会和几个国家选举期间数字广告销售强劲，以及对其云计算服务的需求不断增加。该公司报告总收入同比增长14%至847.4亿美元，其中广告销售额增长11%至646亿美元，云服务收入增长28.8%至103.5亿美元。净利润增长28.6%至236亿美元。YouTube部门的广告销售额增长13%，达到86.7亿美元。尽管表现强劲，但Alphabet今年的资本支出很高，在6月这个季度支出了130亿美元，预计2024年剩余时间里每个季度至少支出120亿美元。该公司首席执行官强调了正在进行的人工智能开发以及人工智能产品的潜在未来收入。该公司还宣布了在其Chrome浏览器中保留第三方cookie的计划。Alphabet包括Waymo在内的投资收入增长28%，达到3.65亿美元，并计划在Waymo投资50亿美元。云客户对新的人工智能功能的投资不断增加，导致Alphabet等云计算公司之间展开竞争，以提供增强的人工智能产品。投资者正在向这项技术投入数十亿美元，以推动人工智能的进步。尽管Alphabet在技术上投入了更多资金来增强服务，但我们预计Alphabet的服务收入将随着支出的增长而增长。24年第三季度建议交易区间：175至190美元。积极前景。

Visa Inc. (V)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $8.9B, +9.9% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.42, in line with estimates
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect class A common stock EPS growth in the high end of low double-digits, net revenue growth in the low double-digits, and operating expense growth in high single-digits.
  • FY24 Guidance: Lower forecasts for annual operating expense growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit percent, compared with its prior forecast of low double digits. Maintained guidance for net revenue growth in low double-digits and annual class A common stock EPS growth of low teens percent.
  • Comment: Visa’s third-quarter revenue growth fell short of Wall Street expectations and reported net revenue of US$8.90bn, slightly below analysts’ estimates of US$8.92bn, marking its first miss since early 2020. The company delivered adjusted earnings per share of US$2.42, matching expectations. The high borrowing costs, driven by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, have constrained consumer spending, particularly among lower-income Americans. Payments volume growth slowed in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China, due to a slower-than-expected post-pandemic recovery. Despite this, Visa saw a 7% increase in payments volume and a 14% rise in cross-border volumes, excluding European transactions. The company expects “low double-digit” net revenue growth for the fourth quarter and reaffirmed its annual profit and revenue forecasts. Despite the anticipated decline in interest rates in the second half of the year, we expect that lower-income consumers will continue to face constraints in the coming months due to the lingering impact of the high interest rate environment. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $240 to $270. Negative Outlook.

威士 (V)

  • 24财年第三季营收：89.0亿美元，同比增幅9.9%，逊预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.42美元，符合预期
  • 24年第四季度指引：预计A类普通股每股收益增长为低两位数的高端，净收入增长为低两位数，运营费用增长为高个位数。
  • 24财年指引：与之前预测的低两位数相比，将年度运营费用增长率从高个位数下调至低两位数。维持净营收增长低于两位数的预期，A类普通股年度每股收益增长低于10%。
  • 短评：Visa第三季度收入增长低于华尔街预期，净收入为89亿美元，略低于分析师89.2亿美元的预期，这是自2020年初以来首次低于预期。该公司调整后每股收益为2.42美元，符合预期。美联储加息导致的高借贷成本限制了消费者支出，尤其是低收入美国人的消费支出。由于大流行后的复苏慢于预期，亚太地区(尤其是中国)的支付额增长放缓。尽管如此，威士的支付量增长了7%，跨境交易量增长了14%，不包括欧洲交易。该公司预计第四季度净收入将实现低两位数的增长，并重申了其年度利润和收入预测。尽管预计下半年利率将下降，但我们预计，由于高利率环境的持续影响，在未来几个月将继续抑制低收入消费者。24年第三季度建议交易区间：240至270美元。负面前景。

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $3.82B, -15.65% YoY, in line with estimates
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.22, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect to earn between $1.24 and $1.48 per share, with revenue between $3.94B and $4.26B, vs analyst estimates of $1.38 per share and $4.12B in revenue.
  • Comment: Texas Instruments exceeded analysts’ second-quarter profit and revenue estimates due to stabilizing demand for analog chips and lower manufacturing costs. Its second-quarter revenue was US$3.82bn and earnings were US$1.22 per share, beating estimates of US$1.16. The rebound in smartphone and personal computer sales helped clear inventory, boosting chip orders. The company’s CEO noted a 20% sequential growth in China for the second quarter. The midpoint of Texas Instruments’ third-quarter revenue forecast of US$4.1bn match analysts’ expectations. Lower manufacturing costs were attributed to increased internal manufacturing and focus on 300-millimeter wafer technology. Capital expenditure was US$1.06bn, below the expected US$1.25bn, which could have been a response to Elliott Investment Management’s call for better capital allocation. However, the company may decide to maintain its capital investment strategy. The increased factory production helped to distribute fixed costs over a larger output, which supported profitability. As more customers deplete their inventory stockpiles, they will be able to buy more from Texas Instruments as demand for personal electronics increases, leading to higher sales. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $190 to $220. Positive Outlook.

德州仪器 (TXN)

  • 24财年第二季营收：382亿美元，同比跌幅15.65%，符合预期
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.22美元，超预期0.06美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计每股收益在1.24美元至1.48美元之间，收入在39.4亿美元至42.6亿美元之间，而分析师预计每股收益为1.38美元，收入为41.2亿美元。
  • 短评：德州仪器第二季获利和营收超过分析师预估，因模拟晶片需求趋稳且制造成本降低。其第二季度收入为38.2亿美元，每股收益为1.22美元，超过了1.16美元的预期。智能手机和个人电脑销售的反弹帮助清理了库存，提振了芯片订单。该公司首席执行长指出，第二季度中国市场环比增长20%。德州仪器第三季度收入预测的中间值为41亿美元，与分析师的预期相符。较低的制造成本归因于内部制造的增加和对300毫米晶圆技术的关注。资本支出为10.6亿美元，低于12.5亿美元的预期，这可能是对埃利奥特投资管理公司(Elliott Investment Management)呼吁改善资本配置的回应。然而，该公司可能决定维持其资本投资策略。工厂生产的增加有助于将固定成本分配到更大的产量上，从而支持了盈利能力。随着越来越多的客户耗尽库存，随着个人电子产品需求的增加，他们将能够从德州仪器购买更多产品，从而提高销售额。24年第三季度建议交易区间：190至220美元。积极前景。

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC. (STX)

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $1.89B, +18.1% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.05, beat estimates by $0.30
  • Dividend: Declared cash dividend of $0.70 per share
  • 1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $2.1B, plus or minus $150M and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.40, plus or minus $0.20.
  • Comment: In the fourth quarter, Seagate Technology reported a revenue of US$1.89bn and adjusted earnings of US$1.05 per share due to the recovery in the memory devices market. The company projects first-quarter revenue to be higher than the Wall Street estimates, driven by increased demand for memory chips from personal computing and data centre clients. Seagate has benefited from the recovery in the memory devices market, which had suffered last year due to reduced chip orders from PC makers. With the PC market expected to rebound, evidenced by a 3% rise in global shipments of personal computers in Q2, reaching 64.9 million units in the three months ended June, Seagate is optimistic about investments in data centers that use its memory chips. For the first quarter, Seagate expects revenue of US$2.10bn, compared to estimates of US$2.07bn, and adjusted profit of US$1.40 per share, exceeding estimates of US$1.16. Looking ahead, as PC technology advances and the number of data centres grows, Seagate’s revenue will continue to benefit. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $120. Positive Outlook.

希捷科技 (STX)

  • 24财年第四季营收：18.9亿美元，同比增幅18.1%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.05美元，超预期0.30美元
  • 股息：宣布现金股息每股0.70美元
  • 25财年第一季指引：预计营收为21亿美元，上下浮动1.5亿美元，Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为1.40美元，上下浮动0.20美元。
  • 短评：在第四季度，希捷科技的收入为18.9亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.05美元，这是由于存储设备市场的复苏。该公司预计，受个人计算和数据中心客户对内存芯片需求增加的推动，第一季度营收将高于华尔街的预期。希捷受益于存储设备市场的复苏。去年，由于个人电脑制造商的芯片订单减少，该市场遭受重创。随着个人电脑市场有望反弹，第二季度全球个人电脑出货量增长3%，截至6月份的三个月达到6490万台，希捷对使用其存储芯片的数据中心的投资持乐观态度。希捷预计第一季度营收为21亿美元，高于预期的20.7亿美元，调整后每股利润为1.40美元，高于预期的1.16美元。展望未来，随着个人电脑技术的进步和数据中心数量的增长，希捷的收入将继续受益。25年第一季度建议交易区间：100至120美元。积极前景。

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $303.5M, -57.3% YoY, miss estimates by $6.17M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43, miss estimates by $0.05
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to range between $370M to $410M, vs $408.41M consensus and GAAP gross margin to be 45% to 48% with net IRA benefit. Non-GAAP gross margin of 47% to 50% with net IRA benefit and 39% to 42% excluding net IRA benefit. Net IRA benefit to be within a range of $30M to $33M based on estimated shipments of 1,100,000 units of U.S. manufactured microinverters. Expect GAAP operating expenses to range from $138M to $142M and Non-GAAP operating expenses to be $79M to $83M, excluding $59M estimated for stock-based compensation expense, acquisition-related amortization and restructuring.
  • Comment: Enphase energy reported a higher-than-expected second-quarter operating profit, driven by a recovery in US demand. It delivered revenue of US$303.5bn and adjusted earnings of US$0.43 per share missing wall street estimates. The company’s adjusted net operating income was US$61.1mn, surpassing analysts’ estimate of US$37.8mn. US revenue rose nearly 32% sequentially to US$198.7mn, while European revenue remained flat. Enphase’s gross margin increased to 47.1% from 46.2% last year. The company experienced increased demand in California during the second quarter, with sales to system installers rising by over 7% QoQ, driven by a 14% increase in battery sales. This positive trend indicates stabilization in the California solar market after a reduction in incentives for rooftop panels by state regulators last year. Solar industry analysts also report that inventory levels have decreased due to manufacturing expansion and increased demand over the past few quarters, with most US states showing signs of recovery. Despite a significant drop in microinverter shipments, the company forecasted third-quarter revenue between US$370.0mn and US$410.0mn, close to analysts’ estimates of US$403.5mn. With US demand recovering and Europe still facing a slow recovery, we expect revenue to remain relatively stable in the short term. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $100 to $120. Neutral Outlook.

Enphase 能源 (ENPH)

  • 24财年第二季营收：3.035亿美元，同比跌幅57.3%，逊预期617万美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.43美元，逊预期0.05美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计营收将在3.7亿至4.1亿美元之间，而市场预期为4.0841亿美元，GAAP毛利率包括通货膨胀法案补贴(IRA)为45%至48%。扣除IRA净收益后，Non-GAAP毛利率为47%至50%；扣除IRA净收益后，毛利率为39%至42%。根据美国制造的微型逆变器估计出货量为110万台，净IRA收益将在3,000万至3,300万美元之间。预计GAAP运营费用将在1.38亿美元至1.42亿美元之间，Non-GAAP运营费用将在7,900万美元至8,300万美元之间，不包括5,900万美元的股票薪酬费用、收购相关摊销和重组。

短评：受美国需求复苏的推动，Enphase能源公布第二季度营业利润高于预期。该公司实现营收3,035亿美元，调整后每股收益0.43美元，低于华尔街预期。该公司调整后的净营业收入为6,110万美元，超过分析师预期的3,780万美元。美国营收环比增长近32%，至1.9870亿美元，而欧洲营收持平。Enphase的毛利率从去年的46.2%上升至47.1%。第二季度，该公司在加州的需求有所增加，在电池销量增长14%的推动下，系统安装商的销量环比增长了7%以上。这一积极趋势表明，去年加州监管机构减少了对屋顶电池板的激励措施后，加州太阳能市场趋于稳定。太阳能行业分析师还报告称，由于过去几个季度制造业扩张和需求增加，库存水平有所下降，美国大多数州都显示出复苏迹象。尽管微型逆变器出货量大幅下降，但该公司预计第三季度收入在3.7亿美元至4.1亿美元之间，接近分析师预计的4.035亿美元。随着美国需求的复苏和欧洲仍然面临缓慢的复苏，我们预计收入将在短期内保持相对稳定。24年第三季度建议交易区间：100至120美元。中性前景。