KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 25 January 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Antero Resources Corp. (AR US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEM. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 22.30, Target 24.30, Stop 21.30

ConocoPhillips (COP US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 109.2, Target 117.2, Stop 105.2

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Delfi Ltd. (DELFI SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.10, Target 1.18, Stop 1.06

ISDN Holdings Ltd. (ISDN SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.340, Target 0.370, Stop 0.325

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Trip.com Group Ltd (9961 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence
  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 281.0, Target 296.0, Stop 273.5

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence
  • Shares rose and closed above the 200dEMA.
  • RSI is positive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 15.9, Target 16.9, Stop 15.4

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Logitech International SA (LOGI)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $1.26B, -0.8% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.53 beat estimates by $0.36
  • FY24 Guidance: Raise sales outlook to $4.2bn-$4.25bn vs consensus of $4.2bn from previous $4.0bn-$4.15bn. Annual sales to decline 6%-7% an improvement from the previous forecast of a 9%-12% decline. Non-GAAP operating income expected to be between $610mn-$660mn from previous $525mn-$575mn. Non-GAAP operating income growth to be between 4% to 12% from previous -11% to -2%.
  • Comment: Logitech International beat both Q3 revenue and EPS analysts estimates. Its cash flow from operations was $443mn a 58% increase YoY. The company raised its full year sales and profit guidance and is targeting a return to revenue growth. However, it emphasised a gradual improvement rather than a rapid recovery to meet its target. The company had faced declining sales in recent quarters after the pandemic surge, with Q3 revenue still showing a 1% YoY decline. Logitech has also been experiencing a 30-day delay in shipping its products from its Asian factories to Europe due to the Red Sea crisis. With the militant attacks happening in the Red Sea, a critical route for East-West Trade, it is expected to result in a delay in Logitech’s product availability in the coming quarters. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $80 to $95. Neutral Outlook.

罗技(LOGI)

  • 24财年第三季营收：12.6亿美元, 同比跌幅0.8%，超预期1,000万美元
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.53美元，超预期0.36美元
  • 24财年指引：将销售预期从此前的40亿至41.5亿美元区间上调至42亿美元至42.5亿美元区间。年销售额将下降6%-7%，比之前预测的下降9%-12%有所改善。Non-GAAP营业收入预计将从此前的5.25亿至5.75亿美元区间增至6.1亿至6.6亿美元。Non-GAAP营业收入增长率从之前的-11%至2%区间提高到4%至12%。
  • 短评：罗技第三季度营收和每股收益双双超出分析师预期。其运营现金流为4.43亿美元，同比增长58%。该公司上调了全年销售和利润预期，目标是恢复收入增长。然而，它强调要逐步改善，而不是迅速恢复，以实现其目标。在疫情爆发后，该公司近几个季度的销售额一直在下降，第三季度的收入仍同比下降1%。由于红海危机，罗技的产品从亚洲工厂运往欧洲的时间也延迟了30天。由于武装分子的袭击发生在红海，这是东西方贸易的关键路线，预计这将导致罗技在未来几个季度的产品供应延迟。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：80美至95美元。中性前景。

3M Co (MMM)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $7.69B, -0.3% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.42 beat estimates by $0.11
  • FY24 Guidance: Adjusted total sales growth in the range of 0.25% to 2.25%, reflecting adjusted organic sales growth of flat to up 2%; Adjusted EPS in the range of $9.35 to $9.75; Adjusted operating cash flow of $6.5bn to $7.1bn, contributing to 95% to 105% adjusted free cash flow conversion.
  • Comment: 3M has unveiled plans for new business lines, including thermal barriers for electric vehicle batteries, identified by management as a promising product line. Despite this, the company offered a 2024 guidance weaker than anticipated, citing revenue constraints due to its decision to exit approximately 5% of its consumer business in areas lacking strong growth prospects. Management underscored a subdued macroeconomic environment, marked by customers reducing discretionary spending amid higher interest rates and persistent inflation. Additionally, businesses faced pressure from reduced inventory levels, particularly in Greater China and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, as distribution partners exercised caution regarding demand in 2024. To address these challenges, the diversified manufacturer has undertaken extensive restructuring, involving the elimination of thousands of jobs and the spin-off of its healthcare business.1Q24 recommended trading range: $85 to $100. Negative Outlook.

3M公司(MMM)

  • 23财年第四季营收：76.9亿美元, 同比跌幅0.3%，逊预期3,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.42美元，超预期0.11美元
  • 24财年指引：调整后的总销售增长率在0.25%至2.25%之间，反映了调整后的有机销售增长率从持平到上升2%；调整后每股收益在9.35美元至9.75美元之间；调整后的经营现金流为65亿至71亿美元，调整后的自由现金流转化率为95%至105%。
  • 短评：3M公布了新业务线的计划，包括电动汽车电池的热屏障，管理层认为这是一个有前途的产品线。尽管如此，该公司提供的2024年指导低于预期，理由是由于公司决定退出缺乏强劲增长前景的地区约5%的消费者业务，从而限制了收入。管理层强调了疲弱的宏观经济环境，在利率上升和通胀持续的情况下，客户减少了可自由支配的支出。此外，由于分销合作伙伴对2024年的需求持谨慎态度，企业面临着库存水平下降的压力，特别是在大中华区、欧洲、中东和非洲。为了应对这些挑战，这家多元化的制造商进行了广泛的重组，包括裁减数千个工作岗位和分拆其医疗保健业务。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：85美至100美元。负面前景。

General Electric Co (GE)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $19.4B, +15.0% YoY, beat estimates by $1.85B
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.03 beat estimates by $0.13
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expect to deliver high-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted EPS of $0.60 to $0.65, and FCF in-line with net income growth. FY2024 Guidance: GE Vernova expects to deliver revenue of $34bn to $35bn; adjusted EBITDA margin of mid-single digits; FCF of $0.7bn to $1.1bn. GE Aerospace expects adjusted revenue to grow low double digits or more; operating profit of $6.0bn to $6.5bn, and FCF of greater than $5bn.
  • Comment: General Electric exceeded expectations in its recent report, but a conservative outlook for 2024 overshadowed a narrower-than-expected decline in fourth-quarter earnings. Despite GE Aerospace’s year-over-year profit growth, supply-chain challenges persist in meeting post-pandemic travel demand. On a positive note, the loss in GE Vernova’s wind business decreased. GE will split into two companies—GE Vernova and GE Aerospace—in the first half of the year, anticipating additional cost challenges, which will be detailed in early March during investor days ahead of the spinoff and launch. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $120 to $140. Neutral Outlook.

通用电气(GE)

  • 23财年第四季营收：194亿美元, 同比增幅15.0%，超预期18.5亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.03美元，超预期0.13美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：预计将实现高个位数的收入增长，调整后每股收益为0.60美元至0.65美元，自由现金流与净收入增长一致。2024财年指引：GE Vernova预计营收340亿至350亿美元；调整后EBITDA利润率为中等个位数；自由现金流介于7亿美元至11亿美元之间。通用电气航空航天部门预计调整后的收入将实现低两位数或更高的增长; 营业利润为60亿至65亿美元，自由现金流超过50亿美元。
  • 短评：通用电气在最近的报告中超出了预期，但其对2024年的保守预期超过了第四季度收益降幅小于预期的影响。尽管通用电气航空航天部门的利润同比增长，但在满足疫情后的旅行需求方面，供应链方面的挑战仍然存在。从积极的方面来看，GE Vernova风电业务的亏损有所减少。通用电气将在今年上半年分拆为GE Vernova和通用电气航空航天两家公司，预计将面临额外的成本挑战，具体细节将在3月初分拆和启动前的投资者日公布。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：120美至140美元。中性前景。

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $21.4B, +7.3% YoY, beat estimates by $380M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.29 beat estimates by $0.01
  • FY24 Guidance: Reaffirm guidance for 2024 with operational sales growth of 5.0% – 6.0% and adjusted operational EPS of $10.55 – $10.75 vs the consensus of $10.71 reflecting growth of 7.4% at the mid-point. Operational Sales of $88.2B – $89.0B; Estimated reported sales of $87.8B – $88.6B vs the consensus of $87.95B.
  • Comment: Johnson & Johnson revealed fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that slightly exceeded Wall Street expectations, propelled by robust sales in the pharmaceutical and medical devices sectors. Notably, U.S. growth was formidable, with revenue surging by 11% to $12 billion, while international sales experienced a more modest increase of 2.9% to $9.4 billion. J&J achieved approvals for several new treatments, including Balversa for bladder cancer, though it anticipates heightened competition for its blockbuster Stelara drug in Europe by mid-year. While expressing openness to exploring acquisition opportunities, the company concurrently disclosed a $700 million settlement to resolve lawsuits alleging that its talc-based baby powder contributed to cancer. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $150 to $170. Neutral Outlook.

强生(JNJ)

  • 23财年第四季营收：214亿美元, 同比增幅7.3%，超预期3.8亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.29美元，超预期0.01美元
  • 24财年指引：重申对2024年的指导，营业销售增长率为5.0% 至6.0%，调整后的营业每股收益为10.55至10.75美元，而市场普遍预期为10.71美元，反映了7.4%的中位数增长。营业销售额882亿至890亿美元；预计报告销售额为878亿至886亿美元，而市场普遍预期为879.5亿美元。
  • 短评：受制药和医疗器械行业强劲销售的推动，强生公布的第四季度盈利和收入略高于华尔街预期。值得注意的是，美国市场的增长非常强劲，营收飙升11%，至120亿美元，而国际市场的销售额增幅较小，为2.9%，至94亿美元。强生的几项新疗法获得了批准，包括治疗膀胱癌的Balversa，不过该公司预计，到今年年中，其重磅药物Stelara在欧洲的竞争将会加剧。在表示愿意探索收购机会的同时，该公司同时披露了一项7亿美元的和解协议，以解决指控其滑石婴儿爽身粉导致癌症的诉讼。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：150美至170美元。中性前景。

Procter & Gamble Co (PG)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $21.44B, +3.2% YoY, miss estimates by $60M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.84 beat estimates by $0.14
  • FY24 Guidance: Maintain guidance range for fiscal 2024 all-in sales growth in the range of 2% – 4%; FY2024 diluted net EPS in a range of $6.36 to $6.43; Expect tailwinds of approximately $800mn after tax due to favourable commodity costs for FY2024; Continue to expect adjusted FCF productivity of 90% and expect to pay more than $9bn in dividends and to repurchase $5bn – $6bn of common shares in FY2024.
  • Comment: P&G has lowered its annual profit forecast due to the diminishing impact of earlier price hikes in the US and a write-down of its Gillette business value in December. Despite declining prices in the United States, the company’s profit margins exceeded expectations. The fading trend of consumer goods companies benefiting from prolonged product price increases has led most firms to ease off on such hikes. P&G emphasizes the focus on sustaining strong volume growth amid easing production costs. In 2Q24, demand for the company’s daily-use products, particularly in grooming and homecare, remained robust, with overall volumes increasing by 4% in the US and 3% in Europe. This demand is expected to persist, supported by signs of a rebound in consumer sentiment and anticipated rate cuts in 2024. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $150 to $160. Positive Outlook.

保洁(PG)

  • 24财年第二季营收：214.4亿美元, 同比增幅3.2%，超预期60,000美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.84美元，超预期0.14美元
  • 24财年指引：维持2024财年总销售额增长的指引范围在2% – 4%之间；2024财年摊薄后净每股收益在6.36美元至6.43美元之间；由于2024财年有利的大宗商品成本，预计税后收益约为8亿美元；继续预计调整后的现金流动资本生产率为90%，预计在2024财年支付超过90亿美元的股息，并回购50亿至60亿美元的普通股。
  • 短评：宝洁下调了其年度利润预期，原因是美国早些时候价格上涨的影响逐渐减弱，以及去年12月对其吉列业务价值的减记。尽管美国的价格在下降，但该公司的利润率超出了预期。消费品公司从长期产品价格上涨中受益的趋势正在消退，这导致大多数公司放松了这种上涨。宝洁强调要在降低生产成本的同时保持强劲的销量增长。在24年第二季度，对该公司日用产品的需求保持强劲，尤其是在美容和家庭护理方面，美国和欧洲的总销量分别增长了4%和3%。在消费者信心反弹的迹象和预计2024年降息的支持下，这种需求预计将持续下去。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：150美至160美元。积极前景。

Netflix Inc (NFLX)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $8.83B, +12.5% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.11, miss estimates by $0.11
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Revenue of $9.24bn vs $9.26 consensus, EPS of $4.49 vs $4.14 consensus. Expects paid net additions to be down sequentially but to be up versus 1Q23 paid net additions of 1.8mn; Expects global average revenue per membership to be up YoY on a FX neutral basis in 1Q24.
  • Comment: Netflix has surpassed expectations in revenue growth, attributing its success to paid sharing, recent price adjustments, and the robust performance of its core business fueled by a compelling content lineup. The company experienced a remarkable surge in subscribers, surpassing their own projection of approximately 9.0 million, with a noteworthy addition of 13.12 million. As of now, the net additions for FY2023 stand at around 30 million. This underscores the effectiveness of Netflix’s approach to curbing password sharing, prompting more individuals to subscribe under various plans.Despite this, Netflix anticipates allocating $17 billion towards content in 2024. Furthermore, with consumer sentiment reaching 78.8 in January and anticipated rate cuts in 2024, there is a likelihood of increased consumer participation in Netflix subscriptions throughout the year.1Q24 recommended trading range: $500 to $600. Positive Outlook.

奈飞(NFLX)

  • 23财年第四季营收：88.3亿美元, 同比增幅12.5%，超预期1.2亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.11美元，超预期0.11美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：营收92.4亿美元，预期为9.26亿美元; 每股收益4.49美元，预期为4.14美元。预计付费净增加值将依次下降，但与第一季度的180万付费净增加值相比将有所上升; 预计全球每用户营收将在第一季度的外汇中性基础上同比上升。
  • 短评：奈飞的收入增长超出了预期，将其成功归功于付费分享、最近的价格调整，以及由引人注目的内容阵容推动的核心业务的强劲表现。该公司的用户数量出现了显著增长，超过了他们自己预计的约900万，其中新增了1312万。截至目前，2023财年的净增加量约为3000万。这凸显了奈飞限制密码共享方法的有效性，促使更多的人以各种计划订阅。尽管如此，奈飞预计到2024年将在内容方面投入170亿美元。此外，1月份消费者信心指数达到78.8，预计2024年将下调费率，因此全年消费者对奈飞订阅的参与度可能会增加。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：500美至600美元。积极前景。

Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.93B, +16.3% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.60, beat estimates by $0.11
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect procedure growth to be between 13% and 16% and total system placements for 2024 to be lower than 2023. Operating margins will be under pressure in 2024, but in the medium term, operating margins will improve.
  • Comment: Intuitive Surgical posted a strong set of results, driven by growth in installations of its signature da Vinci surgical systems, which went to 415 in 4Q23 compared to 369 in 4Q22. The company’s products are likely to see increasing demand as more companies integrate robots and AI with medical procedure due to their better efficiency and accuracy. AI development in healthcare technology will continue to remain prevalent due to consumers’ preferences and well as the increase in chronic illness amidst a global ageing population. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $385 to $440. Positive Outlook.

直觉外科公司(ISRG)

  • 23财年第四季营收：19.3亿美元, 同比增幅16.3%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.60美元，超预期0.11美元
  • 24财年指引：预计手术增长率将在13%到16%之间，2024年的总系统安装量将低于2023年。到2024年，营业利润率将面临压力，但从中期来看，营业利润率将有所改善。
  • 短评： 直觉外科公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，这得益于其标志性的达芬奇手术系统的安装量增长，从22年第四季度的369台增长到23年第四季度的415台。随着越来越多的公司将机器人和人工智能与医疗程序结合起来，由于它们的效率和准确性更高，该公司的产品可能会看到越来越多的需求。由于消费者的偏好以及全球人口老龄化中慢性病的增加，医疗技术领域的人工智能发展将继续保持流行。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：385美至440美元。积极前景。

Texas Instruments Inc (TXN)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $4.08B, -12.6% YoY, miss estimates by $50M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.49 beat estimates by $0.02
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Revenue in the range of $3.45bn to $3.75bn and EPS between $0.96 and $1.16. Expects effective tax to be about 13% in FY24.
  • Comment: Texas Instruments delivered a forecast that fell considerably below market expectations, highlighting subdued demand in both the automotive and industrial sectors. Observers speculate that the automotive industry, previously one of TI’s rapidly expanding end markets, is now displaying indications of inventory adjustments. The impact of elevated borrowing costs has stifled end-market demand within the automotive sector. Projections from Edmunds, a car shopping website, indicate that new vehicle sales in the United States are anticipated to experience a mere 1 percent growth in 2024. Simultaneously, demand from industrial clients, a significant segment for the company, has dwindled due to the ongoing global weakness in manufacturing activity. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $160 to $175. Neutral Outlook.

德州仪器(TXN)

  • 23财年第四季营收：40.8亿美元, 同比跌幅12.6%，逊预期5,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.49美元，超预期0.02美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：营收在34.5亿美元至37.5亿美元之间，每股收益在0.96美元至1.16美元之间。预计24财年的有效税率约为13%。
  • 短评：德州仪器发布的预测远低于市场预期，突显出汽车和工业领域的需求低迷。观察人士推测，作为德州仪器快速扩张的终端市场之一，汽车行业目前正显示出库存调整的迹象。借贷成本上升的影响抑制了汽车行业的终端市场需求。汽车购物网站Edmunds的预测显示，到2024年，美国的新车销量预计只会增长1%。与此同时，由于全球制造业活动持续疲软，工业客户(该公司的一个重要部门)的需求已经减少。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：160美至175美元。中性前景。

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