Technical Analysis – 24 September 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD US)

• Shares closed at a high since Jul 2024 above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 295 Target 325, Stop 280

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG US)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 164.0 Target 180.0, Stop 156.0

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Valuetronics Holdings Ltd. (VALUE SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.620, Target 0.660, Stop 0.600

Jumbo Group Ltd. (JUMBO SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 0.265 Target 0.285, Stop 0.255

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PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd (2328 HK)

• Shares closed at a 6-month high above the 5dEMA with high volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
• Long – Entry 10.50, Target 11.28, Stop 10.11

China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628 HK)

• Shares closed at a 4-month high above the 5dEMA.
• MACD is positive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 12.10, Target 13.00, Stop 11.65

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FedEx Corp. (FDX)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $21.6B, -0.5% YoY, miss estimates by $50M
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.60, miss estimates by $1.17
• FY25 Guidance: Revised guidance for FY25 revenue growth rate to a low single-digit percentage YoY, lowered from the prior forecast of a low-to-mid single digit percentage increase; earnings per diluted share of $17.90 to $18.90 before the MTM retirement plans accounting adjustments compared to the prior forecast of $18.25 to $20.25 per share; and $20.00 to $21.00 per share after also excluding costs related to business optimization initiatives, compared to the prior forecast of $20.00 to $22.00 per share. Reaffirms its forecast for Permanent cost reductions from the DRIVE transformation program of $2.2B; ETR of approximately 24.5% prior to the MTM retirement plans accounting adjustments; and capital spending of $5.2B, with a priority on investments in network optimization and efficiency improvement, including fleet and facility modernization and automation.
• Comment: In the first quarter, FedEx reported adjusted earnings of US$3.60 per share and revenue of US$21.6bn missed analysts’ expectations, driven by customers opting for cheaper, slower delivery services over pricier, priority options. This was the first quarter using new reporting segments after consolidating its Express, Ground, and Services divisions. The company lowered its full-year profit outlook and reported quarterly earnings below expectations due to weaker demand for package deliveries. Its CEO cited a shift in customer preferences toward cheaper shipping options, which hurt demand for priority services and industrial demand, particularly for business-to-business shipments, being weaker than expected, further squeezing profits. Despite ongoing cost-cutting efforts, including merging its Ground and Express units, FedEx was unable to offset the decline in demand for higher-margin priority services. FedEx now expects revenue growth for FY25 to be in the low single digits, down from its previous low-to-mid single-digit forecast. The company also revised its full-year profit outlook to between US$20 and US$21 per share, down from US$20 to US$22. Faced with strong price competition and slower demand for its more profitable services, FedEx is navigating through a challenging period by restructuring its operations and cutting costs. Despite these efforts, the shift toward cheaper shipping options and the loss of key contract with the US Postal Service, which will result in a US$500mn headwind, continue to pressure its profitability. As FedEx implements further changes, including the potential sale of its FedEx Freight division, the company’s ability to adapt to evolving market conditions will be critical to maintaining long-term growth and competitiveness. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $250 to $280. Negative Outlook.

联邦快递 (FDX)

• 25财年第一季营收：216亿美元，同比跌幅0.5%，逊预期5,000万美元
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.6美元，逊预期1.17美元
• 25财年指引：2025财年的营收增长率将为低个位数的同比增幅，较此前的预测有所下调，此前的预测为低至中个位数的同比增幅；每股收益（摊薄）预计为17.90美元至18.90美元，不包括退休计划会计调整的影响，而此前的预测为18.25美元至20.25美元；如果排除与业务优化计划相关的成本，每股收益预计为20.00美元至21.00美元，而此前的预测为20.00美元至22.00美元。重申了对“DRIVE”转型项目永久性成本削减2.2亿美元的预测；预计税前收益率（ETR）约为24.5%，不包括退休计划会计调整的影响；资本支出预计为52亿美元，重点投资于网络优化和效率提升，包括车队和设施现代化和自动化。
• 短评：今年第一季度，联邦快递公布调整后每股盈利3.60美元，营收216亿美元，低于分析师预期，原因是客户选择更便宜、更慢的快递服务，而不是更昂贵、更优先的快递服务。这是在合并了快递、地面和服务部门后，第一次使用新的报告部门。由于包裹递送需求减弱，该公司下调了全年利润预期，季度收益低于预期。该公司首席执行官表示，客户偏好转向更便宜的运输方式，这损害了对优先服务和工业需求的需求，尤其是企业对企业的货运需求，低于预期，进一步挤压了利润。尽管联邦快递一直在努力削减成本，包括合并地面和快递业务，但它仍无法抵消对利润率较高的优先服务需求的下降。联邦快递目前预计，该公司25财年的收入增长将在个位数以下，低于此前的个位数左右的预测。该公司还将全年利润预期从每股20美元至22美元下调至每股20美元至21美元。面对激烈的价格竞争和利润更高的服务需求放缓，联邦快递正通过重组业务和削减成本，度过一段充满挑战的时期。尽管做出了这些努力，但转向更便宜的运输选择，以及失去与美国邮政服务的关键合同(这将导致5亿美元的逆风)，继续给其盈利能力带来压力。随着联邦快递实施进一步的改革，包括可能出售其联邦快递货运部门，该公司适应不断变化的市场条件的能力将对保持长期增长和竞争力至关重要。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：250至280美元。负面前景。

Lennar Corp. (LEN)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $9.4B, +7.7% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $4.26, beat estimates by $0.63
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect its 4Q24 gross margin on home sales to stay flat with Q3’s 22.5%; Expect 4Q24 deliveries of 22,500-23,000 (midpoint 22,750) vs. consensus of 22,902, average sales price of ~$425K (vs. $426.1K consensus), and new orders of 19,000-19,300 (midpoint 19,150) vs. estimate of 18,936.
• Comment: Lennar reported strong quarterly results, benefiting from a persistently tight housing market. However, the company provided weaker-than-expected guidance for 4Q24. Management emphasized that housing supply remains chronically constrained due to over a decade of production shortfalls, while demand remains robust, driven by strong household formation. Despite ongoing affordability challenges, buyers have been responsive to increased sales incentives. The anticipated start of the rate cut cycle is expected to further boost demand from prospective homebuyers. Over the past two years, strong demand in the new home market has been largely driven by sales incentives and mortgage rate buydowns. Looking ahead, the company anticipates an even more robust and widespread demand cycle as interest rates decline. While mortgage rates are not expected to decrease significantly from current levels near 6% through year-end—having already priced in the anticipated September rate cut—rates at these levels could stimulate increased demand for both home purchases and refinances in the coming months. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $175 to $215. Positive Outlook.

莱纳建筑 (LEN)

• 24财年第三季营收：94.0亿美元，同比增幅7.7%，超预期2.4亿美元
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：4.26美元，超预期0.63美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计其第四季度的房屋销售毛利率将与第三季度的22.5%持平；预计24年第四季度的房屋交付量为22,500-23,000间(中间值22,750)，市场预期为22,902，平均销售价格约为42.5万美元(市场预期为426.1万美元)，新订单为19,000-19,300间(中间值19,150)，市场预期为18,936。
• 短评：莱纳公布了强劲的季度业绩，受益于持续紧张的房地产市场。然而，该公司提供了低于预期的第四季度指引。管理层强调，由于十多年来的生产短缺，住房供应仍然长期受到限制，而在强劲的家庭形成的推动下，需求仍然强劲。尽管承受能力面临持续挑战，但买家对增加的销售激励措施反应积极。预计降息周期的开始将进一步刺激潜在购房者的需求。过去两年，新房市场的强劲需求主要受到销售激励和抵押贷款利率下调的推动。展望未来，该公司预计，随着利率下降，需求周期将更加强劲和广泛。虽然抵押贷款利率预计不会从目前接近6%的水平大幅下降到年底，但已经消化了预期中的9月份降息，这些水平的利率可能会在未来几个月刺激购房和再融资需求的增加。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：175至215美元。积极前景。