Technical Analysis – 22 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Datadog, Inc. (DDOG US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 143 Target 155, Stop 137
  

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW US)

• Shares closed at a high since March 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 165 Target 195 Stop 150
  

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Propnex Ltd. (PROP SP)

• Shares closed at a high since April 2024 with a surge in volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.920, Target 0.980, Stop 0.890
  

Rex International Holding Ltd (REXI SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.113 Target 0.123, Stop 0.108
  

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Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. (3896 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume. 50dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 3.30, Target 3.70, Stop 3.10
  

Kingdee International Software Group Co. Ltd.. (268 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high with more volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 9.30, Target 10.30, Stop 8.80
  

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Baidu Inc (BIDU)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $4.78B, -3.0% YoY, beat estimates by $140M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $2.37, miss estimates by $0.10
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Baidu reported a 3% decline in third-quarter revenue to RMB33.6bn (US$4.6bn), its largest revenue drop in over two years, as China’s economic slowdown, weaker advertising spending, and subdued consumer demand weighed on performance. Despite this, net income rose 14% to RMB7.6bn, significantly surpassing estimates of RMB4.67bn, driven by growth in non-advertising segments, particularly its AI Cloud business. Online marketing revenue fell 4% to RMB18.8bn (US$2.6bn), slightly missing analyst expectations, as small and mid-sized businesses cut advertising budgets despite government stimulus measures. Baidu’s Ernie AI platform now handles 1.5 billion daily queries, up from 600 million in August, but monetization remains limited. Its chatbot lags behind competitors like ByteDance’s Doubao and faces competition from platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Douyin. Its CEO expressed cautious optimism about a potential recovery but noted no significant improvement in Q4 advertising or consumer spending trends thus far. The company continues to diversify into AI and autonomous driving, with its Apollo Go driverless taxis now making up 70% of robotaxi rides. However, intense competition in the AI infrastructure space has slowed cloud segment growth, even as generative AI contributed 11% of cloud revenue. Baidu is expanding its AI ecosystem with plans to release a more advanced AI model next year, introduce AI smart glasses in 2025, and reportedly explore a chatbot partnership with Apple. While these initiatives enhance Baidu’s technological edge, the company warned of near-term margin pressures as it prioritizes user experience improvements over immediate monetization in its AI-driven businesses. In the near-term, Baidu will remain challenged in monetizing its AI initiatives and is impacted by subdued consumer spending and weaker advertising demand. Its revenue growth will remain constrained as the company continues to ramp up its AI-driven services and navigates a competitive and economically uncertain environment. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $70 to $85. Negative Outlook.
  

百度 (BIDU)

• 24财年第三季营收：47.8亿美元，同比跌幅3.0%，超预期1.4亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.37美元，逊预期0.1美元。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
  
• 短评：百度公布第三季度收入下降3%，至336亿元人民币（合46亿美元），这是该公司两年来最大的收入降幅，原因是中国经济放缓、广告支出疲软以及消费者需求低迷影响了业绩。尽管如此，由于非广告业务，特别是人工智能云业务的增长，净利润增长14%至76亿元人民币，大大超过46.7亿元人民币的预期。网络营销收入下降4%，至188亿元人民币（合26亿美元），略低于分析师预期，原因是尽管政府出台了刺激措施，但中小企业仍削减了广告预算。百度的文心一言平台现在每天处理15亿次查询，高于8月份的6亿次，但盈利仍然有限。它的聊天机器人落后于字节跳动的豆包等竞争对手，并面临着小红书和抖音等平台的竞争。该公司首席执行官对潜在的复苏表示谨慎乐观，但他指出，到目前为止，第四季度广告或消费者支出趋势没有明显改善。该公司继续向人工智能和自动驾驶领域多元化，其萝卜快跑无人驾驶出租车目前占机器人出租车载客量的70%。然而，人工智能基础设施领域的激烈竞争减缓了云计算领域的增长，尽管生成式人工智能贡献了云计算收入的11%。百度正在扩大其人工智能生态系统，计划明年发布更先进的人工智能模型，并在2025年推出人工智能智能眼镜，据报道，百度正在探索与苹果公司建立聊天机器人合作关系。虽然这些举措增强了百度的技术优势，但该公司警告称，由于在人工智能驱动的业务中，它优先考虑用户体验改善，而不是立即货币化，因此短期内利润率将面临压力。短期内，百度在人工智能计划的货币化方面仍将面临挑战，并受到消费者支出低迷和广告需求疲软的影响。随着公司继续扩大其人工智能驱动的服务，并在竞争激烈和经济不确定的环境中航行，其收入增长将继续受到限制。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：70至85美元。负面前景。
  

PDD Holdings Inc (PDD)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $14.16B, +44% YoY, miss estimates by $170M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $2.41, miss estimates by $0.31
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: PDD Holdings missed market expectations for third-quarter revenue and profit, with revenue rising 44% YoY to RMB99.35bn(S$18.4bn), below analyst estimates of RMB102.65bn. Net income increased to RMB24.98bn, but adjusted profit of RMB18.59 per share fell short of the RMB19.79 expected. Pinduoduo faced challenges from weakened consumer confidence in China, driven by high youth unemployment and a property crisis. Intense competition in the e-commerce space has sparked a price war, further pressuring profitability. While PDD implemented fee reductions and merchant support policies, these efforts increased operational costs. Its Co-CEO acknowledged that limitations in leveraging recent macroeconomic stimulus measures added to the strain. PDD’s global expansion via its Temu platform continues to show promise, but protests from Chinese merchants over high fees and aggressive pricing policies have highlighted tensions. Looking ahead, we anticipate slower revenue growth for PDD, with profitability risks rising amid increasing rivalry from peers like Alibaba, Amazon, and TikTok Shop. Furthermore, PDD also faces other challenges such as potential tariffs under the Trump administration. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $85 to $120. Neutral Outlook.
  

拼多多 (PDD)

• 24财年第三季营收：141.6亿美元，同比增幅44%，逊预期1.7亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.41美元，逊预期0.31美元。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
  
• 短评：拼多多第三季度收入和利润低于市场预期，收入同比增长44%，达到993.5亿元人民币（184亿新元），低于分析师预期的1026.5亿元人民币。净收入增加至人民币249.8亿元，但调整后每股利润为人民币18.59元，低于预期的人民币19.79元。在青年失业率高企和房地产危机的推动下，拼多多面临着中国消费者信心减弱的挑战。电子商务领域的激烈竞争引发了价格战，进一步压低了盈利能力。虽然拼多多实施了费用减免和商家支持政策，但这些努力增加了运营成本。该行联席首席执行官承认，在利用近期宏观经济刺激措施方面的局限性加大了压力。拼多多通过其Temu平台进行的全球扩张继续显示出前景，但中国商家对高昂费用和激进定价政策的抗议，突显出双方的紧张关系。展望未来，我们预计拼多多的收入增长将放缓，随着来自阿里巴巴、亚马逊和抖音商城等同行的竞争日益激烈，盈利风险也在上升。此外，拼多多还面临特朗普政府可能征收的关税等其他挑战。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：85至120美元。中性前景。
  

Deere & Co (DE)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $11.14B, -27.7% YoY, beat estimates by $1.87B
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $4.55, beat estimates by $0.62
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect net income to be between $5.0B and $5.5B and net sales to decline by 10% to 15% across its machinery segments.
  
• Comment: Deere & Co reported strong quarterly earnings, with fourth quarter profit of US$4.55 per share exceeding analyst expectations of US$3.87, as lower raw material and freight costs helped offset declining farm equipment demand. It also delivered 13.1% equipment margins and generated US$6.9bn in operating cash flow. Full-year operating margins reached 18.2%, reflecting structural improvements since implementing its Smart Industrial operating model. However, the company provided a cautious 2025 profit forecast of US$5bn to US$5.5bn, below the US$5.93bn market estimate, due to global pressure on farm profitability, declining farm incomes, and high interest rates. Farmers are reducing equipment purchases amid falling corn and soybean prices, while dealers are limiting inventory restocking after last year’s supply chain challenges drove high demand. Deere expects net sales to decline by 10% to 15% across its machinery segments in 2025. Agriculture equipment demand in North America is expected to decline 30%, with smaller declines in South America and Europe. Construction and forestry demand is forecasted to fall 10%-15%, pressured by reduced non-residential investments and softer multifamily housing markets. Deere plans to proactively manage production levels to align with retail demand, focusing on reducing inventory and supporting dealers while maintaining pricing discipline. It also anticipates improved profitability driven by precision technology adoption, including advancements like the See & Spray system and pay-per-use models for older equipment retrofits. Deere’s strategic focus on innovation and inventory management, positions the company to navigate challenging market conditions in 2025 while maintaining its market leadership and laying the groundwork for future profitability. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $400 to $460. Positive Outlook.
  

迪尔 (DE)

• 24财年第四季营收：111.4亿美元，同比跌幅27.7%，超预期18.7亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：4.55美元，超预期0.62。
  
• 25财年指引：预计净利润将在50亿美元至55亿美元之间，机械部门的净销售额将下降10%至15%。
  
• 短评：迪尔公司公布了强劲的季度收益，第四季度每股利润为4.55美元，超过分析师预期的3.87美元，因为原材料和货运成本的下降帮助抵消了农业设备需求的下降。它还实现了13.1%的设备利润率，并产生了69亿美元的运营现金流。全年营业利润率达到18.2%，反映了自实施智能工业运营模式以来的结构改善。然而，由于全球农业盈利压力、农业收入下降和高利率，该公司对2025年利润的谨慎预测为50亿至55亿美元，低于59.3亿美元的市场预期。由于玉米和大豆价格不断下跌，农民正在减少设备采购，而在去年供应链挑战推动需求高涨后，经销商正在限制库存补充。迪尔预计，到2025年，其机械部门的净销售额将下降10%至15%。北美的农业设备需求预计将下降30%，南美和欧洲的降幅较小。受非住宅投资减少和多户住宅市场疲软的影响，建筑和林业需求预计将下降10%-15%。迪尔计划主动管理生产水平，以配合零售需求，重点是减少库存和支持经销商，同时保持定价纪律。该公司还预计，精密技术的采用将推动盈利能力的提高，包括See & Spray系统和旧设备改造的按次付费模式。迪尔的战略重点是创新和库存管理，使公司能够在2025年应对充满挑战的市场条件，同时保持其市场领导地位，为未来盈利奠定基础。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：400至460美元。积极前景。
  

iQIYI Inc (IQ)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.0B, -10.0% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.07, beat estimates by $0.02
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Chinese video streaming platform iQiyi reported a challenging third quarter, with revenue declining 10% YoY to RMB7.2bn (US$1bn) and net income falling to RMB229mn (US$32.7mn), down from RMB476mn in the same period in 2023. The decline was attributed to weaker subscription and advertising revenue, partially offset by growth in content sales. Membership services revenue dropped 13% YoY to RMB4.4bn due to a lighter content slate, while advertising revenue fell 20% YoY to RMB1.3bn, reflecting reduced brand advertising despite growth in performance-based ads. However, content distribution revenue rose 52% YoY to RMB814mn, driven by barter transactions. Content costs declined 5% YoY to RMB4bn due to fewer movie offerings. iQIYI is pivoting strategically to enhance engagement and monetization by integrating mini and short dramas into its portfolio, complementing long-form content. Its CEO also highlighted efforts to enhance the platform by adding a family account membership option. Leveraging AI for content translation, plot generation, and production, iQIYI has improved efficiency and reduced costs. The company also achieved robust international growth, with membership revenues rising over 40% YoY in regions such as Hong Kong, the UK, Brazil, and Australia. While near-term growth remains pressured, iQIYI continues to focus on strategic content enhancements, aiming to better serve evolving user preferences. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $1.5 to $2.5. Neutral Outlook.
  

爱奇艺 (IQ)

• 24财年第三季营收：10亿美元，同比跌幅10.0%，逊预期2,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.07美元，超预期0.02美元。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
  
• 短评：中国视频流媒体平台爱奇艺第三季度财报充满挑战，营收同比下降10%至72亿元人民币（10亿美元），净收入从2023年同期的4.76亿元人民币下降至2.29亿元人民币（3,270万美元）。下降的原因是订阅和广告收入下降，部分被内容销售的增长所抵消。由于内容较少，会员服务收入同比下降13%至人民币44亿元，而广告收入同比下降20%至人民币13亿元，反映出尽管基于性能的广告增长，但品牌广告减少。然而，受易货交易的推动，内容分发收入同比增长52%至人民币8.14亿元。由于电影供应减少，内容成本同比下降5%至人民币40亿元。爱奇艺正在战略上转向通过将迷你剧和短剧整合到其产品组合中，以补充长篇内容，从而提高参与度和货币化。其首席执行官还强调了通过增加家庭账户会员选项来增强平台的努力。利用人工智能进行内容翻译、情节生成和制作，爱奇艺提高了效率，降低了成本。该公司还实现了强劲的国际增长，在香港、英国、巴西和澳大利亚等地区，会员收入同比增长超过40%。尽管近期增长仍面临压力，但爱奇艺将继续专注于战略性内容增强，旨在更好地服务于不断变化的用户偏好。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：1.5至2.5美元。中性前景。
  

Intuit Inc (INTU)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $3.3B, +10.0% YoY, beat estimates by $160M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.50, beat estimates by $0.14
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $3.81 to $3.85bn, midpoint of $3.83bn below consensus of $3.88bn; expects non-GAAP diluted EPS to be between $2.55 – $2.61, midpoint of $2.58 below consensus of $3.25.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $18.16bn to $18.35bn, midpoint of $18.26 in-line with consensus, expects non-GAAP diluted EPS to be between $19.16 to $19.36, midpoint of $19.26 below consensus of $19.33.
  
• Comment: Intuit reported stronger-than-expected results but issued a disappointing outlook, citing delays in AI-related returns and a planned shift in TurboTax promotion timings that impacted growth. The company anticipates a single-digit revenue decline in Q2 FY25 due to the delay in promoting the desktop version of TurboTax, its widely used tax-filing software. However, this delay is limited to the current quarter, and Intuit reaffirmed its annual forecast for double-digit revenue growth. Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump’s government efficiency team is exploring the creation of a free tax-filing app, but management emphasized that this initiative is unlikely to impact the company. Intuit reported solid progress in serving mid-market customers through MailChimp but noted increased churn among smaller customers. Looking ahead, the company remains focused on enhancing its product offerings and improving feature discoverability and adoption to drive first-time use and bolster customer retention. These efforts are expected to support Intuit’s long-term growth trajectory. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $620 to $680. Neutral Outlook.
  

财捷 (INTU)

• 25财年第一季营收：33亿美元，同比增幅10.0%，超预期1.6亿美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.5美元，超预期0.14美元。
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收将在38.1亿美元至38.5亿美元之间，38.3亿美元的中值低于38.8亿美元的预期；预计Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益将在2.55美元至2.61美元之间，中间值为2.58美元，低于市场预期的3.25美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计营收将在181.6亿美元至183.5亿美元之间，中间值为18.26美元，与市场预期一致；预计Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益将在19.16美元至19.36美元之间，中间值为19.26美元，低于市场预期的19.33美元。
  
• 短评：财捷报告了强于预期的业绩，但发布了令人失望的前景，理由是人工智能相关回报的延迟以及TurboTax促销时间的计划转变影响了增长。该公司预计，由于其广泛使用的报税软件TurboTax的桌面版推迟推出，该公司25财年第二季度的收入将出现个位数的下降。然而，这种延迟仅限于当前季度，财捷重申了其两位数收入增长的年度预测。此外，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府效率团队正在探索创建一个免费的报税应用程序，但管理层强调，这一举措不太可能对公司产生影响。财捷报告称，在通过MailChimp服务中端市场客户方面取得了坚实进展，但注意到小客户的流失有所增加。展望未来，该公司将继续专注于增强其产品供应，提高功能的可发现性和采用率，以推动首次使用并提高客户留存率。这些努力有望支持财捷的长期增长轨迹。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：620至680美元。中性前景。
  

Ross Stores Inc (ROST)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $5.07B, +3.0% YoY, miss estimates by $80M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.48, beat estimates by $0.08
  
• 3Q24 Dividend: Ross Stores declares $0.3675/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 1.06%; Payable Dec. 31; for shareholders of record Dec. 10; ex-div Dec. 10.
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect comparable store sales to increase 2% to 3%; Expect EPS to be in the range of $1.57 to $1.64.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect EPS to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.17 versus $5.56 in FY23, and compared to a range of $6.00 to $6.13 previously.
  
• Comment: Ross Stores reported mixed results but raised its annual profit forecast, supported by lower freight and supply chain costs that mitigated the impact of slowing sales at its outlets. To appeal to increasingly cautious lower-income consumers, the company has expanded its product offerings to include a broader assortment of branded goods at various price points. Ross maintained its comparable sales growth target of 2% to 3%, focusing on attracting shoppers who are deferring large purchases of apparel and other non-essential items. Similarly, competitors like TJX and Walmart have raised their annual profit forecasts, anticipating strong holiday traffic as budget-conscious consumers seek deep discounts. As retailers ramp up promotions to compete for strained budgets and price-sensitive customers during the holiday season, heightened consumption levels are expected to benefit value-oriented players like Ross Stores. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $145 to $165. Positive Outlook.
  

罗斯百货 (ROST)

• 24财年第三季营收：50.7亿美元，同比增幅3.0%，逊预期8,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.48美元，超预期0.08美元。
  
• 24年第三季度股息：罗斯百货宣布每股0.3675美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期股息率1.06%；12月31日为付息日；12月10日为股东登记日及除息日。
  
• 24年第四季度指引：预计可比门店销售额将增长2%至3%；预计每股收益在1.57美元至1.64美元之间。
  
• 24财年指引：预计每股收益将在6.10美元至6.17美元之间，而23财年为5.56美元，而此前为6.00美元至6.13美元。
  
• 短评：罗斯百货公布了喜忧参半的业绩，但上调了年度利润预期，原因是货运和供应链成本下降，缓解了其门店销售放缓的影响。为了吸引越来越谨慎的低收入消费者，该公司扩大了产品种类，包括更多不同价位的品牌商品。罗斯将可比销售增长目标维持在2%至3%，重点是吸引那些推迟购买大量服装和其他非必需品的购物者。同样，TJX和沃尔玛等竞争对手也上调了年度利润预期，预计由于精打巧的消费者寻求大幅折扣，假期客流量会很强劲。随着零售商在假日季加大促销力度，以争夺预算紧张和对价格敏感的客户，消费水平的提高预计将使公司等以价值为导向的企业受益。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：145至165美元。积极前景。