Technical Analysis – 22 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Roblox Corp. (RBLX US)

• Shares closed at a high since Feb 2024 with more volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 42.50 Target 46.50, Stop 40.50

Shopify, Inc. (SHOP US)

• Shares closed at a high since May 2024. 20dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA and the 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dMEA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 75.80, Target 82.80, Stop 72.30

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SATS Ltd. (SATS SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 3.50, Target 3.80, Stop 3.35

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd. (JCNC SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and the 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 27.5 Target 29.1, Stop 26.7

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China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 50dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 10.64, Target 11.70, Stop 10.11

Pop Mart International Group Ltd (9992 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA with an increase in volume.
• MACD is positive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 44, Target 48, Stop 42

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Target Corp (TGT)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $25.45B, +2.7% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.57, beat estimates by $0.39
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect a 0-2% increase in comparable sales, and GAAP and adjusted EPS of $2.10 to $2.40. FY24 Guidance: Raise FY24 guidance. Expect FY24 GAAP and adjusted EPS of $9.00 to $9.70, up from the prior range of $8.60 to $9.60.
• Comment: Target reported stronger-than-expected results and raised its FY24 outlook. The company experienced growth in both in-store and digital traffic, with double-digit increases in same-day delivery services. Discretionary categories, particularly apparel, showed improving trends, while the beauty segment continued to perform strongly. Despite economic uncertainty, consumer spending remains resilient, with shoppers turning out for holidays and seasonal events. During the quarter, Target repurchased 1.1mn shares of its common stock for $155mn and expects to continue its buyback program throughout 2024. The market remains optimistic about the upcoming quarter’s comparable sales, driven by the back-to-school and Halloween seasons. Additionally, an improved outlook on interest rate cuts could further boost consumer spending for the company. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $155 to $180. Positive Outlook.

塔吉特 (TGT)

• 24财年第二季营收：254.5亿美元，同比增幅2.7%，超预期2.4亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.57美元，超预期0.39美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计可比销售额将增长0-2%，GAAP和调整后每股收益将达到2.10美元至2.40美元。24财年指引：提高24财年指引。预计24财年GAAP和调整后每股收益为9.00美元至9.70美元，高于之前的8.60美元至9.60美元。
• 短评：塔吉特公布了强于预期的业绩，并上调了24财年的预期。该公司的实体店和数字流量都有所增长，当日送达服务的增幅达到两位数。非必需品类，尤其是服装，呈现出改善的趋势，而美容品类继续表现强劲。尽管经济前景不明朗，但消费者支出仍保持弹性，假日和季节性活动仍吸引购物者。在本季度，塔吉特以1.55亿美元的价格回购了110万股普通股，并预计将在整个2024年继续其回购计划。受开学季和万圣节购物季的推动，市场对即将到来的季度可比销售额仍持乐观态度。此外，降息前景改善可能进一步提振消费者支出。24年第三季度建议交易区间：155至180美元。积极前景。

Macy’s Inc (M)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $4.94B, -3.7% YoY, miss estimates by $110M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.53, beat estimates by $0.24
• FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales to be in the range of $22.1bn to $22.4bn, compared to $22.3bn to $22.9 previously; Expect adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $2.55 to $2.90, unchanged.
• Comment: Macy’s reported mixed results this quarter. While earnings were strong, the company noted that consumers were more “discriminating,” leading to higher-than-expected markdowns to drive demand. As a result, Macy’s slightly lowered its revenue outlook for the fiscal year, after raising it in May. The company has struggled with sluggish sales growth for years, losing market share to e-commerce giants, big-box retailers, and direct-to-consumer brands. Earlier this year, Macy’s announced a turnaround plan aimed at addressing these challenges. The strategy focuses on improving profitability and increasing sales by streamlining costs, enhancing the customer experience, closing 150 underperforming stores by 2027, and investing in the remaining 350 locations. However, despite these restructuring efforts, Macy’s has yet to see a significant recovery and continues to underperform compared to its retail peers. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $13 to $18. Neutral Outlook.

梅西百货 (M)

• 24财年第二季营收：49.4亿美元，同比跌幅3.7%，逊预期1.1亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.53美元，超预期0.24美元
• 24财年指引：预计净销售额将在221亿美元至224亿美元之间，而此前为223亿美元至229美元；预计调整后的稀释每股收益在2.55美元至2.90美元之间，与此前预测不变。
• 短评：梅西百货本季度的业绩喜忧参半。虽然收益强劲，但该公司指出，消费者更加“挑剔”，导致高于预期的降价推动了需求。因此，梅西百货在5月份上调了本财年的收入预期后，略微下调了本财年的收入预期。多年来，该公司一直在与销售增长缓慢作斗争，市场份额被电子商务巨头、大型零售商和直接面向消费者的品牌所蚕食。今年早些时候，梅西百货宣布了一项旨在应对这些挑战的扭亏为盈计划。该战略的重点是通过精简成本、改善客户体验、在2027年之前关闭150家表现不佳的门店，并对剩余的350家门店进行投资，来提高盈利能力和增加销售额。然而，尽管进行了这些重组努力，梅西百货尚未看到明显的复苏，与零售同行相比，它的表现仍然落后。24年第三季度建议交易区间：13至18美元。中性前景。

TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $13.47B, +5.6% YoY, beat estimates by $150M
• 2Q25 GAAP EPS: $0.96, beat estimates by $0.04
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect consolidated store sales to be up by 2% – 3%; Expect pretax profit margin to be in the range of 11.8% to 11.9%; Expect diluted EPS to be in the range of $1.06 to $1.08. FY25 Guidance: Expect consolidated comparable store sales to be up approx. 3%; Increase its pretax profit margin outlook to be approximately 11.2%; Increase its diluted EPS outlook to be in the range of $4.09 to $4.13.
• Comment: TJX Companies reported strong results, exceeding expectations and raising its FY25 guidance. Comparable store sales increased by 4%, driven by higher customer transactions, particularly in the Marmaxx division, which includes TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and Sierra stores. Marmaxx has been gaining market share from competitors like Macy’s and Target. The company also opened its 5,000^th store, reflecting its expanding presence and potential for continued global growth. While operational improvements and lower freight costs boosted performance, these gains were partially offset by higher supply chain expenses. TJX is also focusing on international expansion, recently acquiring a 35% stake in Dubai-based retailer Brands for Less for $360mn. This investment in the region’s leading off-price retailer, which operates over 100 stores and an e-commerce platform, is expected to slightly boost earnings per share by FY26. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $113 to $135. Positive Outlook.

TJX公司 (TJX)

• 25财年第二季营收：134.7亿美元，同比增幅5.6%，超预期1.5亿美元
• 25财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.96美元，超预期0.04美元
• 25财年第三季指引：预计综合商店销售额将增长2%至3%；预计税前利润率将在11.8%至11.9%之间；预计稀释后每股收益将在1.06美元至1.08美元之间。25财年指引:预计合并可比门店销售额将增长约。3%;上调其税前利润率预期至约11.2%；将稀释后每股收益预期上调至4.09美元至4.13美元。
• 短评：TJX公司公布了强劲的业绩，超出预期，并提高了其25财年的指导。受客户交易量增加的推动，同店销售额增长了4%，尤其是在Marmaxx部门，该部门包括TJ Maxx、Marshalls和Sierra门店。Marmaxx一直在从梅西百货和塔吉特等竞争对手那里获得市场份额。该公司还开设了第5000家门店，反映了其不断扩大的影响力和持续全球增长的潜力。虽然运营改进和货运成本降低提振了业绩，但这些收益部分被供应链费用增加所抵消。TJX还专注于国际扩张，最近以3.6亿美元收购了总部位于迪拜的零售商Brands的35%股份。该公司是该地区领先的折扣零售商，经营着100多家门店和一个电子商务平台，预计这笔投资将在26财年小幅提高每股收益。25年第三季度建议交易区间：113至135美元。积极前景。

Analog Devices Inc (ADI)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $2.31B, -25.0% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.58, beat estimates by $0.07
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $2.40B, +/-$100M. At the midpoint of revenue outlook, expects reported operating margin of approximately 22.3% +/-180bps and adjusted operating margin of approximately 41.0% +/-100bps. Reported EPS to be $0.85 +/-$0.10 and adjusted EPS to be $1.63 +/-$0.10.
• Comment: Analog Devices delivered third-quarter revenue of US$2.31bn and earnings per share of US$1.58 which exceeded analysts’ estimates, benefitting from the return in demand for its chips used in consumer electronics. Its consumer segment revenue rose 3% to US$316.6mn above estimates of US$289.3mn while its industrial segment was slightly below analysts’ expectations of US$1.07mn at US$1.06bn. The company forecasted better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue and profit, driven by a recovery in demand for its consumer electronics chips as surplus inventory across sectors decreased. However, ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to challenge the pace of recovery. Despite slight underperformance in its industrial segment, Analog Devices remains optimistic about its overall growth, projecting fourth-quarter revenue of approximately US$2.40bn above estimates of US$2.37bn. Looking ahead, as economic uncertainty persists alongside high inflation, the pace of recovery in demand for consumer electronics remains uncertain, which may impact Analog Devices’ sales. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $220 to $240. Neutral Outlook.

亚德诺半导体 (ADI)

• 24财年第三季营收：23.1亿美元，同比跌幅25.0%，超预期4,000万美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.58美元，超预期0.07美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计收入为24亿美元，±1亿美元。在收入预测的中点，预计报告的营业利润率约为22.3% +/-180个基点，调整后的营业利润率约为41.0% +/-100个基点。报告每股收益为0.85美元+/- 0.10美元，调整后每股收益为1.63美元+/- 0.10美元。
• 短评：得益于消费电子产品中使用的芯片需求的回升，亚德诺公司第三季度收入为23.1亿美元，每股收益为1.58美元，超出了分析师的预期。其消费部门收入增长3%至3.166亿美元，高于预期的2.893亿美元，而其工业部门收入略低于分析师预期的107万美元，为10.6亿美元。该公司预计第四季度营收和利润好于预期，受消费电子芯片需求复苏推动，各行业过剩库存减少。然而，持续的经济和地缘政治不确定性继续挑战着复苏的步伐。尽管其工业部门表现略差，但公司对其整体增长仍持乐观态度，预计第四季度收入约为24亿美元，高于预期的23.7亿美元。展望未来，由于经济不确定性和高通胀持续存在，消费电子产品需求的复苏步伐仍然不确定，这可能会影响公司的销售。24年第四季度建议交易区间：220至240美元。中性前景。

Snowflake Inc (SNOW)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $868.82M, +28.9% YoY, beat estimates by $18.67M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.18, beat estimates by $0.02
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect product revenue of between $850M to $855M and an operating income margin of 3%. FY25 Guidance: Expect product revenue of $3,356M, operating income margin of 3% and adjusted free cash flow margin of 26%.
• Share buyback: Authorise the repurchase of an additional $2.5B under its stock repurchase program through March 2027
• Comment: The company has increased its full-year product revenue forecast to US$3.36bn from its previous forecast of US$3.30bn. This increase is due to the growing demand for its AI-enhanced Data Cloud platform, which helps enterprises streamline their data. Despite a recent data breach, Snowflake’s AI advancements, such as its Snowflake Arctic model and its partnership with Meta to use its Llama models, are driving client growth. However, the company did not raise its margin forecast partly due to Snowflake waiting for the deployment of certain GPUs. Looking ahead, as corporations continue to integrate AI into their businesses, Snowflake’s products will contribute to a more seamless integration. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $135. Neutral Outlook.

Snowflake (SNOW)

• 24财年第二季营收：8.6882亿美元，同比增幅28.9%，超预期1,867万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.18美元，超预期0.02美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计产品收入在8.5亿美元到8.55亿美元之间，营业利润率为3%。25财年指引：预计产品收入为33.56亿美元，营业利润率为3%，调整后自由现金流利润率为26%。
• 股票回购：授权在2027年3月之前根据其股票回购计划再回购25亿美元
• 短评：公司已将其全年产品收入预测从此前的33亿美元上调至33.6亿美元。这一增长是由于对其人工智能增强的数据云平台的需求不断增长，该平台可以帮助企业简化数据。尽管最近发生了数据泄露事件，但公司在人工智能方面的进步，比如Snowflake Arctic模型以及与Meta合作使用Llama model，正在推动客户增长。然而，该公司没有提高其利润率预测，部分原因是公司等待某些GPU的部署。展望未来，随着企业不断将人工智能整合到他们的业务中，公司的产品将有助于实现更无缝的整合。24年第三季度建议交易区间：115至135美元。中性前景。