Technical Analysis – 21 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 50dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 22.0 Target 26.0, Stop 20.0
  

Unity Software Inc. (U US)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 21.0 Target 24.0, Stop 19.5
  

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Sembcorp Industries Ltd. (SCI SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 200dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 5.25, Target 5.65, Stop 5.05
  

Sheng Siong Group Ltd (SSG SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 1.64 Target 1.72, Stop 1.60
  

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Dongfeng Motor Group Co Ltd. (489 HK)

• Shares closed at a high since January 2024 with more volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 3.60, Target 4.10, Stop 3.35
  

BAIC Motor Corp Ltd. (1958 HK)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 2.30, Target 2.50, Stop 2.20
  

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NIO Inc (NIO)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $2.66B, -2.1% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: -$0.31, in-line with estimates
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect deliveries of vehicles to be between 72,000 and 75,000 units, representing an increase of approximately 43.9% to 49.9% from the same quarter of 2023. Total revenues to be between RMB19,676M (US$2,804M) and RMB20,383M (US$2,904M) vs. consensus of US$3.18B, representing an increase of approximately 15.0% to 19.2% from the same quarter of 2023.
  
• Comment: In the third quarter, Nio reported a widened net loss of RMB5.1bn, compared to RMB4.6bn in the same period last year. Despite the loss, the company’s loss per share improved slightly to RMB2.50, from RMB2.67 a year ago. Revenue fell 2.1% YoY to RMB18.7bn, as vehicle sales declined 4.1% to RMB16.7bn, primarily due to lower average selling prices resulting from changes in the product mix. This was partially offset by an 11.6% increase in delivery volumes, totalling 61,855 vehicles. Revenue from other sales grew 19.2% to RMB2bn, driven by higher sales of parts, accessories, after-sales services, and power solutions. Looking ahead to Q4, Nio forecasts deliveries of 72,000 to 75,000 units, a YoY increase of 43.9% to 49.9%, and expects revenue to rise between 15% and 19.2%, reaching RMB19.7bn to RMB20.4bn. Its CFO expressed optimism for 2025, citing a robust product cycle across its three brands, which is expected to drive higher sales volumes and improved financial performance. For the current quarter, with the Chinese government’s stimulus measures and the traditional peak season for EV sales in October, we anticipate QoQ sales growth. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $4 to $5. Neutral Outlook.
  

蔚来汽车 (NIO)

• 24财年第三季营收：26.6亿美元，同比跌幅2.1%，超预期1,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.31美元，符合预期。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计汽车交付量将在7.2万至7.5万辆之间，比2023年同期增长约43.9%至49.9%。总收入将在19676亿元人民币（28.04亿美元）至203.83亿元人民币（29.04亿美元）之间，而市场预期为31.8亿美元，较2023年同期增长约15.0%至19.2%。
  
• 短评：第三季度，蔚来汽车公布净亏损扩大至51亿元人民币，而去年同期为46亿元人民币。尽管出现亏损，但该公司的每股亏损从一年前的2.67元人民币略微改善至2.50元人民币。收入同比下降2.1%至人民币187亿元，汽车销售下降4.1%至人民币167亿元，主要是由于产品组合变化导致平均销售价格下降。这部分被交付量增加11.6%（总计61,855辆）所抵消。其他销售收入增长19.2%至人民币20亿元，主要受零部件、配件、售后服务和电源解决方案销售增长的推动。展望第四季度，蔚来汽车预计交付量为7.2万至7.5万辆，同比增长43.9%至49.9%，预计收入将增长15%至19.2%，达到197亿至204亿元人民币。该公司首席财务官对2025年表示乐观，称旗下三个品牌的产品周期强劲，预计将推动销量增长，改善财务业绩。对于当前季度，由于中国政府的刺激措施和传统的电动汽车销售旺季在10月份，我们预计环比销售将增长。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：4至5美元。中性前景。
  

Target Corp (TGT)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $25.67B, +1.1% YoY, miss estimates by $230M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.85, miss estimates by $0.45
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect comparable sales to be approximately flat. The metric, which is also known as same-store sales, includes sales on its website and stores open at least 13 months.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Cut its full-year profit guidance, expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $8.3 to $8.9. That’s lower than the $9.0 to $9.7 per share range that it shared in August and below the $9.55 a share expected by analysts.
  
• Comment: Target delivered third quarter revenue of US$25.67bn below estimates. It showed a net adjusted profit of US$1.85 per share, missing the US$2.30 analyst estimate. Comparable sales increased just 0.3%, below the expected 1.4%, with in-store sales falling 1.9% but offset by a 10.8% rise in digital sales. Weakness in higher-margin categories like home decor and electronics, coupled with warm weather impacting apparel sales, further hurt performance. Target faced additional supply chain costs while preparing for a potential US port strike, compounding challenges. Target forecasted flat holiday-quarter comparable sales and lower-than-expected profits. The retailer now projects Q4 earnings of US$1.85 to US$2.45 per share, below analysts’ expectations of US$2.66 per share, and has revised its annual profit forecast downward. Despite efforts like price cuts, promotions, and expanding its private-label brand, Target has struggled to attract budget-conscious consumers, particularly as rivals like Walmart gain market share with higher-income shoppers. There are concerns arising about Targets vulnerability to Walmart and Amazon, which have leveraged their financial strength to attract shoppers during a highly competitive holiday season. Shopper traffic rose 2.4% in Q3, down from 3% in the prior quarter, signalling softer consumer demand amid high inflation and cautious spending. Looking ahead, despite the upcoming holiday season, we anticipate that Targets more cost cautious consumers will continue to impact its revenue going forward. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $110 to $150. Neutral Outlook.
  

目标百货 (TGT)

• 24财年第三季营收：256.7亿美元，同比增幅1.1%，逊预期2.3亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.85美元，逊预期0.45美元。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计可比销售额将大致持平。该指标也被称为同店销售额，包括其网站上的销售额和开业至少13个月的门店。
  
• 24财年指引：下调全年盈利预期，预计全年调整后每股收益在8.3美元至8.9美元之间。这低于该公司8月份设定的每股9.0至9.7美元区间，也低于分析师预期的每股9.55美元。
  
• 短评：目标百货第三季度营收低于预期256.7亿美元。该公司公布调整后净利润为每股1.85美元，低于分析师预期的2.30美元。同店销售额仅增长0.3%，低于预期的1.4%，店内销售额下降1.9%，但被数字销售增长10.8%所抵消。家居装饰和电子产品等高利润率品类的疲软，再加上温暖的天气影响了服装销售，进一步拖累了业绩。目标百货在为美国港口可能发生的罢工做准备的同时，还面临着额外的供应链成本，这加剧了挑战。目标百货预计假日季可比销售额持平，利润低于预期。这家零售商目前预计第四季度每股收益为1.85美元至2.45美元，低于分析师预期的每股2.66美元，并下调了年度利润预期。尽管目标百货采取了降价、促销和扩大自有品牌等措施，但它仍难以吸引注重预算的消费者，尤其是在沃尔玛等竞争对手赢得高收入购物者市场份额的情况下。投资者担心目标百货容易受到沃尔玛和亚马逊的冲击，这两家公司利用自己的财务实力在竞争激烈的假日季节吸引购物者。第三季度的客流量增长了2.4%，低于上一季度的3%，这表明在高通胀和谨慎消费的情况下，消费者需求疲软。展望未来，尽管即将到来的假日季节，我们预计更谨慎的消费者将继续影响其未来的收入。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：110至150美元。中性前景。
  

TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $14.06B, +5.7% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.14, beat estimates by $0.04
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect comparable sales to grow between 2% and 3%, largely in line with the 3% uptick that analysts had expected. Changes to its pretax profit margin and earnings guidance for its holiday quarter are due to the expected reversal of the third quarter benefit from the timing of certain expenses.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Maintain comparable sales guidance of 3% growth for the full year, just shy of the 3.2% growth that analysts had expected. Raised its pretax profit margin outlook from 11.2% to 11.3%, which matches expectations, along with its earnings per share guidance. It’s now expecting full-year earnings to be between $4.15 and $4.17, up from a prior range of $4.09 to $4.13. At the high end, its guidance is in line with the $4.17 consensus.
  
• Comment: In the third quarter, TJX Companies reported a 6% increase in net sales to US$14.1bn, surpassing analysts’ estimates of US$13.95bn, and posted a profit of US$1.14 per share, above the US$1.09 consensus estimate. The company continues to attract steady traffic and gain market share as consumers hunt for deals amid economic uncertainty. Unlike mixed forecasts from competitors Walmart and Target, TJX remains well-positioned, benefiting from its focus on essentials and value-driven offerings. Comparable sales at its Marmaxx division, including T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, grew 2%, while HomeGoods and TJX Canada saw 3% and 2% growth, respectively. Its international division outperformed, with a 7% increase in comparable sales, recovering from earlier operational challenges. For the holiday quarter, TJX expects comparable sales growth of 2% to 3% and earnings per share between US$1.12 and US$1.14, slightly below analysts’ expectations of US$1.18. TJX raised its annual profit forecast, driven by strong demand from cost-conscious customers seeking value at its off-price stores like TJ Maxx and Marshalls. The retailer now expects annual earnings per share of US$4.15 to US$4.17, up from its previous forecast of US$4.09 to US$4.13, while maintaining its target of 3% annual comparable store sales growth. Additionally, TJX announced plans to enter Spain under its TK Maxx banner by early 2026 and acquired a 35% stake in Dubai-based Brands for Less for US$360mn, strengthening its presence in the Middle East. Despite slowing growth in some divisions, TJX continues to attract value-driven shoppers and is poised to benefit from the upcoming holiday season and its strategic expansion into new markets. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $130. Positive Outlook.
  

TJX公司 (TJX)

• 24财年第三季营收：140.6亿美元，同比增幅5.7%，超预期1.1亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.14美元，超预期0.04。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计同店销售额将增长2%至3%，与分析师预期的3%基本一致。假日季税前利润率和盈利预期的变化，是由于某些费用的时间安排，预计第三季度收益将出现逆转。
  
• 24财年指引：维持全年可比销售增长3%的预期，略低于分析师预期的3.2%。将税前利润率预期从11.2%上调至11.3%，与预期相符，并上调了每股收益指引。该公司目前预计全年收益将在4.15美元至4.17美元之间，高于此前4.09美元至4.13美元的区间。在高端市场，其指引与4.17美元的共识一致。
  
• 短评：在第三季度，TJX公司报告净销售额增长6%，达到141亿美元，超过分析师预期的139.5亿美元，每股利润为1.14美元，高于市场预期的1.09美元。随着消费者在经济不确定的情况下寻找优惠，该公司继续吸引稳定的客流量，并获得市场份额。与竞争对手沃尔玛和目标百货喜忧参半的预测不同，TJX仍处于有利地位，这得益于其对必需品和价值驱动型产品的关注。包括T.J. Maxx和Marshalls在内的Marmaxx部门的可比销售额增长了2%，而HomeGoods和TJX Canada的可比销售额分别增长了3%和2%。其国际部门表现优异，可比销售额增长了7%，从早期的运营挑战中恢复过来。对于假日季，TJX预计可比销售额将增长2%至3%，每股收益在1.12美元至1.14美元之间，略低于分析师预期的1.18美元。TJX上调了年度利润预期，原因是注重成本的顾客在TJ Maxx和Marshalls等折扣店寻求价值。该零售商目前预计年度每股收益为4.15美元至4.17美元，高于此前预测的4.09美元至4.13美元，同时维持可比店面销售额年增长3%的目标。此外，TJX宣布计划在2026年初以TK Maxx的名义进入西班牙，并以3.6亿美元收购了总部位于迪拜的Brands for Less 35%的股份，加强了其在中东的影响力。尽管一些部门的增长放缓，但TJX继续吸引价值驱动型购物者，并准备从即将到来的假日季节和其向新市场的战略扩张中受益。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：115至130美元。积极前景。
  

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

• 3Q25 Revenue: $35.08B, +93.6% YoY, beat estimates by $1.95B
  
• 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.81, beat estimates by $0.06
  
• 4Q25 Guidance: Expect net sales to be $37.5bn (+/- 2%), compared to consensus of $37.04bn.
  
• Comment: Nvidia reported stronger-than-expected earnings and provided an upbeat forecast for the current quarter, underscoring its rapid growth and sustained demand for its advanced AI chips. The company, a leading beneficiary of the ongoing AI boom, saw revenue soar 94% year-over-year in Q3 FY25. Nvidia’s next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, is now in full production, with major customers like Microsoft, Oracle, and OpenAI already receiving shipments. Demand for Blackwell chips has been extraordinary, with the company acknowledging that supply will fall short of demand for several quarters in FY26. Both the Blackwell and Hopper systems are experiencing supply constraints, though Nvidia expects shipments of Blackwell to ramp up significantly next year. The company projects “several billion dollars” in Blackwell revenue for Q4 FY25. Additionally, sales of the current-generation AI chip, the H200, saw strong growth during the quarter. Looking ahead, Nvidia remains optimistic about continued growth, fueled by the scaling of AI models. However, potential tariffs under the new U.S. administration could impact revenue. Despite this, management expects robust AI demand to drive performance, with Nvidia well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding AI market. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $130 to $165. Positive Outlook.
  

英伟达 (NVDA)

• 25财年第三季营收：350.8亿美元，同比增幅93.6%，超预期19.5亿美元
  
• 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.81美元，超预期0.06美元。
  
• 25财年第四季指引：预计净销售额为375亿美元（+/- 2%），而市场预期为370.4亿美元。
  
• 短评：英伟达公布了强于预期的收益，并对当前季度做出了乐观的预测，突显出该公司的快速增长和对其先进人工智能芯片的持续需求。该公司是正在进行的人工智能热潮的主要受益者，其收入在25财年第三季度同比飙升94%。英伟达的下一代人工智能芯片Blackwell现已全面投产，微软、甲骨文和OpenAI等主要客户已经开始发货。对Blackwell芯片的需求异常旺盛，该公司承认，在26财年的几个季度里，供应将供不应求。Blackwell和Hopper系统都面临供应紧张，不过英伟达预计Blackwell的出货量明年将大幅上升。该公司预计Blackwell在25财年第四季度的收入将达到“数十亿美元”。此外，当前一代人工智能芯片H200的销量在本季度也出现了强劲增长。展望未来，在人工智能模型规模化的推动下，英伟达仍对持续增长持乐观态度。然而，美国新政府可能征收的关税可能会影响收入。尽管如此，管理层预计强劲的人工智能需求将推动业绩增长，英伟达处于有利地位，可以利用不断扩大的人工智能市场。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：130至165美元。积极前景。
  

Snowflake Inc (SNOW)

• 3Q25 Revenue: $942.09M, +28.3% YoY, beat estimates by $43.63M
  
• 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.20, beat estimates by $0.05
  
• 4Q25 Guidance: Expect product revenue to be between $906mn – $911mn; operating income margin to be 4%
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect product revenue to be $3,430mn, compared to $3.36bn previously; expects operating income margin to be 5%; expects adjusted free cash flow margin to be 26%.
  
• Comment: Snowflake delivered better-than-expected results for the quarter, raising its annual product revenue forecast and announcing a multi-year partnership with AI firm Anthropic. The company continues to see strong adoption of its Data Cloud, as enterprises increasingly leverage AI-powered services to manage and analyze vast datasets. Snowflake ended October with 10,618 customers, exceeding market expectations of 10,601, after adding 369 new customers during the quarter. In line with peers like Salesforce and Microsoft, Snowflake is advancing its AI capabilities through its Snowflake Intelligence platform. The partnership with Anthropic will enable customers to integrate Anthropic’s large language models to develop and enhance their own AI applications. These models will empower Snowflake’s AI agents to perform advanced data analysis, generate visualizations, and more. The company also announced plans to acquire data-integration platform Datavolo, aiming to simplify workloads for its customers. Looking ahead, the demand environment appears to be stabilizing and showing early signs of improvement, supporting Snowflake’s growth trajectory. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $140 to $180. Positive Outlook.
  

Snowflake (SNOW)

• 25财年第三季营收：9.4209亿美元，同比增幅28.3%，超预期4,363万美元
  
• 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.2美元，超预期0.05美元。
  
• 25财年第四季指引：预计产品收入将在9.06亿美元至9.11亿美元之间；营业利润率为4%。
  
• 25财年指引：预计产品收入为34.30亿美元，高于此前的33.6亿美元；预计营业利润率为5%；预计调整后的自由现金流利润率为26%。
  
• 短评：Snowflake本季度的业绩好于预期，提高了年度产品收入预期，并宣布与人工智能公司Anthropic建立多年合作关系。随着企业越来越多地利用人工智能服务来管理和分析庞大的数据集，该公司的数据云得到了广泛的采用。截至10月底，雪花拥有10,618个客户，超过了市场预期的10,601个，该季度增加了369个新客户。与Salesforce和微软等同行一样，Snowflake正在通过其雪花智能平台推进其人工智能能力。与Anthropic的合作将使客户能够集成Anthropic的大型语言模型，以开发和增强他们自己的人工智能应用程序。这些模型将使雪花的人工智能代理能够执行高级数据分析，生成可视化等。该公司还宣布了收购数据集成平台Datavolo的计划，旨在为其客户简化工作负载。展望未来，需求环境似乎趋于稳定，并显示出改善的早期迹象，支持Snowflake的增长轨迹。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：140至180美元。积极前景。
  

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $2.14B, +13.8% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.56, beat estimates by $0.08
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect total revenue to be between $2.22bn to $2.25bn, midpoint of $2.24bn vs consensus of $2.23bn; expects diluted non-GAAP net EPS to be between $1.54 to $1.56, midpoint of $1.55 in-line with consensus; expects remaining performance obligation to be between $2.22bn to $2.25bn.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $9.12bn to $9.17bn, midpoint of $9.15bn vs consensus of $9.13bn; expects non-GAAP operating margin to be between 27.5% to 28.0%; expects non-GAAP net EPS to be between $6.29 to $6.39, midpoint of $6.33 vs consensus of $6.28; expected adjusted FCF margin to be between 37% to 38%; expects remaining performance obligation to be between $15.2bn to $15.3bn.
  
• Comment: Palo Alto Networks reported strong results, driven by robust demand for its cybersecurity services amid escalating digital threats. The company’s 2Q25 guidance aligned closely with market expectations. As cybercrimes and hacking incidents rise, businesses are ramping up investments in cybersecurity, benefiting major providers like Palo Alto Networks that offer comprehensive security solutions. The company continues to promote its “platformization” strategy, encouraging clients to consolidate disparate security tools into a unified platform for streamlined management. Additionally, Palo Alto Networks announced a two-for-one stock split of its common shares, with trading on a split-adjusted basis set to begin on December 16. Looking ahead, software demand is expected to remain strong, particularly in AI and cybersecurity, supported by elevated corporate capital expenditures and a favorable outlook for lower interest rates. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $350 to $400. Positive Outlook.
  

派拓网络 (PANW)

• 25财年第一季营收：21.4亿美元，同比增幅13.8%，超预期2,000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.56美元，超预期0.08美元。
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计总收入将在22.2亿美元至22.5亿美元之间，中间值为22.4亿美元，而市场预期为22.3亿美元；预计摊薄后Non-GAAP净每股收益将在1.54美元至1.56美元之间，中间值为1.55美元，与市场预期一致；预计剩余的履约义务将在22.2亿美元至22.5亿美元之间。
  
• 25财年指引：预计营收将在91.2亿美元至91.7亿美元之间，中间值为91.5亿美元，而市场预期为91.3亿美元；预计Non-GAAP营业利润率将在27.5%至28.0%之间；预计Non-GAAP净每股收益将在6.29美元至6.39美元之间，中间值为6.33美元，而市场预期为6.28美元；预计调整后的现金流利润率将在37%至38%之间；预计剩余的履约义务将在152亿美元至153亿美元之间。
  
• 短评：由于数字威胁不断升级，市场对其网络安全服务的需求强劲，派拓网络公布了强劲的业绩。该公司25年第二季度的指引与市场预期密切一致。随着网络犯罪和黑客事件的增加，企业正在加大对网络安全的投资，这让派拓网络等提供全面安全解决方案的主要供应商受益。该公司继续推动其“平台化”战略，鼓励客户将不同的安全工具整合到一个统一的平台中，以简化管理。此外，派拓网络还宣布将普通股拆分为两股一股，并将于12月16日开始进行拆分调整后的交易。展望未来，在企业资本支出增加和利率下调的有利前景的支持下，预计软件需求将保持强劲，特别是在人工智能和网络安全领域。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：350至400美元。积极前景。