Technical Analysis – 20 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA recently crossed 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 16.4, Target 17.4, Stop 15.9

First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 5.60, Target 6.00, Stop 5.40

Geo Energy Resources Ltd. (GERL SP)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.290, Target 0.320, Stop 0.275

AEM Holdings Ltd. (AEM SP)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 3.55 Target 3.85 Stop 3.40

Sunny Optical Technology Group Co. Ltd. (2382 HK)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 64.0, Target 70.0, Stop 61.0

Melco International Development Ltd. (200 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
RSI is turning constructive and MACD is turning positive.
Long – Entry 5.60, Target 6.40, Stop 5.20

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL)

3Q23 Revenue: $13.48B, +0.1% YoY, miss estimates by $60M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.38, beat estimates by $0.12
4Q23 Guidance: The company expects to earn between $2.25 and $2.50 a share, on an adjusted basis, for the year, down from an estimate in July. The company expects its 4Q2023 adjusted operating margin to be 2% to 4%. American now expects its FY2023 adjusted operating margin to be approximately 7%.
Comment: The company’s management is still bullish on the future, and highlights that Christmas holiday season bookings are stronger than this time last year and the company sees robust demand in 2024. They indicated that domestic demand remains steady, while international demand continues to drive revenue growth led by the Atlantic, Caribbean and Central America. However, the airline company lowered their forecast due to the adverse impacts of rising fuel prices which increased the company expenses, alongside softening consumer demand amidst the high interest rate environment. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 63 in October 2023 from 68.1 in September, the lowest in five months, showcasing the weakness in consumption level. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $10 to $13. Neutral Outlook.

美国航空 (AAL)

23财年第三季营收：134.8亿美元, 同比增幅0.1%，逊预期6,000万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.38美元，超预期0.12美元
23财年第四季指引：公司预计今年经调整后每股收益将在2.25美元至2.50美元之间，低于7月份时的预期。该公司预计其2023年第四季度调整后的营业利润率为2%至4%。美国航空目前预计其2023财年调整后的营业利润率约为7%。
短评：该公司的管理层仍然看好未来，并强调圣诞节假期的预订量比去年同期更强劲，该公司预计2024年的需求将强劲。他们表示，国内需求保持稳定，而国际需求继续推动以大西洋、加勒比和中美洲为首的收入增长。然而，由于燃油价格上涨增加了公司费用的不利影响，以及高利率环境下消费者需求疲软，该航空公司下调了他们的预测。密歇根大学的消费者信心指数从9月份的68.1降至2023年10月的63，为5个月来的最低水平，显示出消费水平的疲软。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：10美元至13美元。中性前景。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM)

3Q23 Revenue: $17.28B, -14.6% YoY, beating estimates by $580M
3Q23 GAAP EPADR: $1.29, beat estimates by $0.13
4Q23 Guidance: The company expects 4Q23 revenue to be between $18.8B and $19.6B; consensus revenue estimates for the coming quarter is $18.33B. The company expects the business to be supported by a continued strong ramp of its 3-nanometer technology, partially offset by customers’ inventory adjustment.
Comment: The company is still faced with a weak demand for consumer electronics, leading to the company’s largest profit decline since 1Q19. Post-pandemic saw a plunge in demand for consumer electronics. Customers also remain cautious in their inventory control due to the persistent weaker overall macroeconomic conditions and slow demand recovery in China. Management highlights that recent AI demand is not enough to offset the weakening demand for chips in consumer electronics. However, the company still expect business in the fourth quarter to be supported by the continued strong ramp-up of their 3-nanometer technology, partially offset by customers’ continued inventory adjustment on the inventory side. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $86 to $100. Neutral Outlook.

台积电 (TSM)

23财年第三季营收：172.8亿美元, 同比跌幅14.6%，超预期580万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.29美元，超预期0.13美元
24财年指引：公司预计第四季度营收将在188亿美元至196亿美元之间；对下一季度收入的普遍预期为183.3亿美元。公司预计其3纳米技术的持续强劲增长将支持该业务，部分抵消了客户库存调整的影响。
短评：该公司仍然面临消费电子产品需求疲软，导致该公司自19年第一季度以来最大的利润下滑。疫情爆发后，消费电子产品的需求大幅下降。由于整体宏观经济状况持续疲软以及中国需求复苏缓慢，客户在库存控制方面仍持谨慎态度。管理层强调，最近的人工智能需求不足以抵消消费电子产品对芯片需求的减弱。然而，该公司仍预计第四季度的业务将受到其3纳米技术持续强劲增长的支持，部分被客户库存方面的持续库存调整所抵消。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：86美元至100美元。中性前景。

Blackstone Inc (BX)

3Q23 Revenue: $2.32B, -10.4% YoY, missing estimates by $260M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.94, misses estimates by $0.08
FY23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Dividend: $0.80 per share
Comment: Blackstone Inc. reported a 12% YoY decline in its third-quarter distributable earnings, primarily due to high-interest rates impacting asset values and reducing incentives for cashing out. Although the firm’s holdings continued to generate earnings, the unfavourable environment for realisations prompted Blackstone to hold onto some assets for longer and sell less. Higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, coupled with geopolitical tensions, led to a 36% decrease in net profit from asset sales. The decline was most pronounced in Blackstone’s real estate division, with realised performance revenue plummeting by 88%. Despite these challenges, Blackstone saw gains in its private equity portfolio, infrastructure funds, and private credit funds, retaining a strong position with assets under management above $1 trillion. With US inflation staying high, there might be a possibility of even more upcoming interest rate hikes, which will continue to lead to a decline in its profit from asset sales, impacting its overall profitability. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $90 to $100. Neutral Outlook.

黑石集团 (MS)

23财年第三季营收：23.2亿美元, 同比跌幅10.4%，逊预期2.6亿美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.94美元，逊预期0.08美元
23财年指引：不提供指引。
股息：0.8美元
短评：黑石集团公布第三季度可分配收益同比下降12%，主要原因是高利率影响了资产价值，并减少了套现的动力。尽管该公司持有的资产继续产生收益，但不利的变现环境促使黑石延长持有部分资产的时间并减少出售。美联储设定的更高利率，加上地缘政治紧张局势，导致资产出售净利润减少了36%。这种下降在黑石的房地产部门最为明显，实现业绩收入暴跌了88%。尽管面临这些挑战，但黑石的私募股权投资组合、基础设施基金和私人信贷基金仍有所增长，管理的资产规模超过1万亿美元，保持了强势地位。由于美国的通货膨胀率居高不下，未来可能会有更多的加息，这将继续导致其资产出售利润下降，影响其整体盈利能力。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：90美元至100美元。中性前景。

Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG)

3Q23 Revenue: $1.74B, +11.5% YoY, missing estimates by $30M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.46, beats estimates by $0.04
FY23 Guidance: gross profit margin to be within 68% and 68.5%, operating expense growth to be between 12% and 14%, estimate for noncash stock compensation expense to range between 600mn to 610mn, estimate for other income, which is comprised mostly of interest income, to total between 190mn and 200mn, capital expenditures estimated to range between $900mn to $1bn and income tax estimated to be to be between 22% and 23% of pre-tax income.
Comment: Intuitive Surgical experienced strong growth in Q3 2023, with a 19% increase in Da Vinci procedures, driven by general surgery for benign conditions in the US. Ion platform growth was also significant. Recurring revenue grew by 21% and overall revenue by 12%, primarily due to procedure growth. The company is also conducting clinical trials to expand the use of its technology in complex colorectal and thoracic procedures, with promising results. Looking ahead with the company anticipating a full-year procedure growth of 21% to 22%, we believe that it will be able to deliver stable gross profit margins and revenue in the current quarter. This may however be impacted by the high inflationary and interest rate environment, whereby, patients which do not need urgent care right now will choose not to spend, possibly reducing hospital procedure volumes and inturn impacting the utilisation of their systems.Intuitive Surgical also currently faces pressure due to the potential impact of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s suite of diabetes and weight-loss drugs on the bariatric surgery industry, which put down the demand for their procedures and impacted their sales. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $220 to $270. Neutral Outlook.

直觉外科公司 (ISRG)

23财年第三季营收：17.4亿美元, 同比增幅11.5%，逊预期3,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.46美元，超预期0.04美元
23财年指引：毛利率在68%至68.5%之间，营业费用增长在12%至14%之间，非现金股票补偿费用估计在6亿至6.1亿美元之间，其他收入（主要由利息收入组成）估计在1.9亿至2亿美元之间，资本支出估计在9亿至10亿美元之间，所得税估计在税前收入的22%至23%之间。
短评：直觉外科在2023年第三季度经历了强劲增长，在美国良性疾病的普通外科手术的推动下，达芬奇手术增加了19%。离子平台的增长也很显著。经常性收入增长21%，整体收入增长12%，主要是由于业务增长。该公司还在进行临床试验，以扩大其技术在复杂的结肠直肠和胸部手术中的应用，并取得了可喜的结果。展望未来，该公司预计全年增长21%至22%，我们相信它将能够在本季度实现稳定的毛利率和收入。然而，这可能会受到高通胀和利率环境的影响，因此，现在不需要紧急护理的患者将选择不花钱，可能会减少医院的手术量，并反过来影响其系统的利用率。公司目前也面临压力，因为诺和诺德和礼来的糖尿病和减肥药物对减肥手术行业的潜在影响，降低了对其手术的需求，影响了其销售。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：220美元至270美元。中性前景。