Technical Analysis – 20 February 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI US)

• Shares closed at a high since October 2024 above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just cross the 200dEMA and the 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 240 Target 260 Stop 230
  

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 195 Target 215 Stop 185
  

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Rex International Holding Ltd. (REXI SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.215, Target 0.235, Stop 0.205
  

RH PetroGas Ltd. (RHP SP)

• Shares closed at a high since October 2024 with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.195 Target 0.215, Stop 0.185
  

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China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 16.7, Target 18.1, Stop 16.0
  

Hainan Meilan International Airport Co Ltd (357 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 8.6 Target 9.4, Stop 8.2
  

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Etsy, Inc (ETSY)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $852.2M, +1.2% YoY, miss estimates by $9.17M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.03, beat estimates by $0.09
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects 1Q25 GMS to decrease 6.8% from a year earlier, a similar rate of decline as seen in the last three months of 2024.
  
• Comment: Etsy reported lower-than-expected revenue and gross merchandise sales (GMS) for the holiday quarter, pressured by soft demand for gifts and handcrafted goods. GMS came in at $3.74 billion, missing market expectations of $3.88 billion. Persistent inflation and intensified competition from platforms like Amazon.com and PDD Holdings’ Temu weighed on Etsy’s performance, as consumers prioritized lower prices and discounts. Demand for discretionary items, including furniture and accessories, remained sluggish as shoppers focused on essentials. Additionally, consumer sentiment declined for two consecutive months in January and February, signaling potential ongoing headwinds for Etsy’s business. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $47 to $54. Negative Outlook.
  

Etsy (ETSY)

• 24财年第四季营收：8.522亿美元，同比增长1.2%，低于预期917万美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股收益：1.03美元，超出预期0.09美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计25财年第一季度商品销售总额（GMS）将比去年同期下降6.8%，与2024年最后三个月的降幅相似。
  
• 短评：Etsy公布的假日季度营收和商品销售总额（GMS）低于预期，原因是礼品和手工制品需求疲软。商品销售总额为37.4亿美元，未达到市场预期的38.8亿美元。持续的通货膨胀以及来自亚马逊和拼多多旗下Temu等平台的竞争加剧，给Etsy的业绩带来了压力，因为消费者优先考虑更低的价格和折扣。由于购物者专注于必需品，包括家具和配件在内的非必需品需求依然低迷。此外，1月和2月消费者信心连续两个月下降，表明Etsy的业务可能持续面临不利因素。25财年第一季建议交易区间：47至54美元。负面前景。
  

Analog Devices Inc. (ADI)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $2.42B, -3.6% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.63, beat estimates by $0.09
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue to be $2.5bn (+/- $100mn), above consensus of $2.46mn; expects adjusted EPS to be $1.68 (+/- $0.10), above consensus of $1.66; expects reported operating margin to be approx. 24.2% (+/-160bps)
  
• Comment: Analog Devices delivered strong quarterly results, fueled by a rebound in chip demand, particularly in the consumer segment. Consumer revenue rose 19% YoY to $322.9mn, driven by increasing adoption of AI-powered devices, premium smartphones, and smart home products. Bookings showed steady improvement throughout the first quarter, with strength in industrial and automotive markets positioning the company for further growth in 2Q25. Management issued an upbeat outlook for 2Q25 and expects a return to growth in FY25. Looking ahead, Analog Devices is well-positioned to benefit from rising automation trends, including robotics and smart instruments, while growing adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles is set to drive further demand for analog chips. The company also announced a $10bn increase in its share repurchase authorization. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $225 to $270. Positive Outlook.
  

亚德诺半导体 (ADI)

• 25财年第一季营收：24.2亿美元，同比下降3.6%，超出预期6000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：1.63美元，超出预期0.09美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收为25亿美元（+/- 1亿美元），高于市场预期的24.6亿美元；预计调整后每股收益为1.68美元（+/- 0.10美元），高于市场预期的1.66美元；预计报告运营利润率约为24.2%（+/- 160个基点）
  
• 短评： 模拟器件公司公布了强劲的季度业绩，这得益于芯片需求的复苏，尤其是消费电子领域的需求。消费电子收入同比增长19%，达到3.229亿美元，这主要受到人工智能设备、高端智能手机和智能家居产品日益普及的推动。整个第一季度，订单量持续稳步增长，其中工业和汽车市场的强劲表现为公司在25财年第二季度实现进一步增长奠定了基础。管理层对25财年第二季度的前景持乐观态度，并预计在25财年恢复增长。展望未来，模拟器件公司有望从包括机器人和智能仪器在内的自动化趋势中获益，而混合动力和电动汽车的日益普及将进一步推动对模拟芯片的需求。该公司还宣布将其股票回购授权增加100亿美元。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：225美元至270美元。积极前景。
  

Carvana Co. (CVNA)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $3.55B, +46.0% YoY, beat estimates by $210M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.56, beat estimates by $0.24
  
• FY25 Guidance: No financial guidance provided. Company expects significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA in FY 2025, including a sequential increase in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA in 1Q25, assuming the environment remains stable. Comment: Carvana delivered robust results and anticipates further growth in 2025. The company’s net income received a boost from gains on its warrant holdings. However, investor enthusiasm was muted, given expectations were higher after a roughly 450% surge in its share price over the past year. Carvana closed 4Q24 with net debt just over $6 billion, down from about $8.4 billion at the end of 2022. Looking ahead, the company projects significant gains in both units sold and adjusted earnings. With a current market share of around 1% and considerable opportunities for expansion, Carvana remains optimistic about its future growth prospects. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $230 to $280. Neutral Outlook.
  

Carvana Co. (CVNA)

• 24财年第四季营收：35.5亿美元，同比增长46.0%，超出预期2.1亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.56美元，超出预期0.24美元
  
• 25财年全年指引：未提供财务指引。公司预计2025财年零售销量和调整后EBITDA均将实现显著增长，包括25财年第一季度零售销量和调整后EBITDA均将环比增长，前提是环境保持稳定。
  
• 短评： Carvana业绩表现强劲，并预计2025年将实现进一步增长。该公司净收入因其认股权证的收益而增加。然而，由于此前一年股价上涨了约450%，投资者热情不高，因为预期更高。Carvana在24财年第四季度结束时净债务略高于60亿美元，低于2022年底的约84亿美元。展望未来，该公司预计销量和调整后收益都将大幅增长。目前市场份额约为1%，且有相当大的扩张机会，Carvana对其未来的增长前景保持乐观。25财年第一季建议交易区间：230美元至280美元。中性前景。
  

Grab Holdings Ltd. (GRAB)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $764mn, +17.0% YoY, beat estimates by $7.3M
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $3.33bn and $3.40bn on a constant currency basis, below consensus of $3.5bn; expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $440mn to $470mn. Expect first-quarter GMV and revenue growth to be weaker than the fourth quarter due to the impacts of the Lunar New Year and the Ramadan fasting period. Grab added that it expects a sharp recovery in the second quarter.
  
• Comment: Grab delivered stronger-than-expected revenue in 4Q24. The company’s on-demand gross merchandise value (GMV) surged by 20% to $5.03bn , while its monthly transacting users (MTU) grew from 37.7mn to 43.9mn YoY. Additionally, Grab reported impressive subscriber retention, with paid members spending four times as much as non-subscribers. However, the firm issued a cautious revenue forecast for FY25, citing challenges from fierce competition in its food delivery and ride-hailing segments, alongside subdued consumer sentiment and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Looking ahead, Grab expects 1Q25 GMV and revenue growth to be softer than in 4Q24, due in part to the Lunar New Year and the Ramadan fasting period but anticipates a strong recovery in 2Q25. In a move that could reshape the regional market, Grab is also considering a takeover of GoTo, valued at over $7bn, according to sources. Despite significant regulatory hurdles, both companies have accelerated discussions aimed at ending years of losses. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $4.20 to $5.50. Neutral Outlook.
  

Grab Holdings Ltd. (GRAB)

• 24财年第四季营收：7.64亿美元，同比增长17.0%，超出预期730万美元
  
• 25财年全年指引：预计营收在恒定汇率基础上达到33.3亿美元至34.0亿美元之间，低于市场普遍预期的35.0亿美元；预计调整后EBITDA在4.4亿美元至4.7亿美元之间。预计由于农历新年和斋月的影响，第一季度GMV和营收增长将弱于第四季度。Grab补充说，预计第二季度将出现强劲复苏。
  
• 短评： Grab在24财年第四季度实现了强于预期的营收。该公司按需总商品价值（GMV）飙升20%，达到50.3亿美元，而月交易用户（MTU）同比增长37.7%至4390万。此外，Grab的付费会员留存率表现出色，付费会员的消费是非付费会员的四倍。然而，该公司对25财年的营收预测较为谨慎，理由是其食品配送和网约车业务面临激烈竞争，同时消费者情绪低迷以及更广泛的宏观经济不确定性。展望未来，Grab预计25财年第一季度GMV和营收增长将弱于24财年第四季度，部分原因是农历新年和斋月，但预计25财年第二季度将出现强劲复苏。Grab还在考虑收购GoTo，后者估值超过70亿美元，此举可能会重塑区域市场。尽管存在监管方面的重大障碍，但两家公司都加快了旨在结束多年亏损的谈判。25财年第一季建议交易区间：4.20美元至5.50美元。中性前景。