Technical Analysis – 20 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD US)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA and 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 153 Target 169, Stop 145

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 119, Target 129, Stop 114

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Top Glove Corp Bhd (TOPG SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.290, Target 0.320, Stop 0.275

UG Healthcare Corp Ltd (UGHC SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.126 Target 0.140, Stop 0.119

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Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK)

• Shares closed at a 2-month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 3.60, Target 3.84, Stop 3.48

China Merchants Bank Co Ltd (3968 HK)

• Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 33.4, Target 36.0, Stop 32.1

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Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $3.87B, +7.2% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.64, beat estimates by $0.39
• FY25 Guidance: Expect sales growth to be between -1% to 2%, vs estimates of 6.43%. Expects global prestige beauty to grow 2% to 3%, reflecting ongoing strength in many developed and emerging markets globally, with more tempered growth in certain large markets, such as North America, partially offset by continued declines in mainland China and Asia travel retail due to low consumer sentiment and conversion rates. Further anticipates global prestige beauty to reaccelerate to historical mid-single-digit growth in FY26, assuming China gradually stabilizes and returns to growth.
• Dividend: Declare $0.66 per share of the quarterly dividend, in line with the previous. Payable on 16 September for shareholders of record 30 August.
• Comment: Estée Lauder reported fourth-quarter revenue of US$3.87bn and earnings of US$0.64 per share, which surpassed analysts’ expectations. Although the company slightly exceeded quarterly net sales estimates, it anticipates modest or negative growth in the upcoming year. This aligns with industry trends, as other companies have also noted slower-than-expected growth in the global beauty market and the absence of a rebound in the Chinese market. Estée Lauder has projected lower-than-expected profit and sales for 2025 of -1% to 2% due to sluggish demand in the global beauty market, particularly in China. The company announced the retirement of long-time CEO Fabrizio Freda, who will be succeeded as part of the CEO succession planning following the recent departure of CFO Tracey Travis. The board is considering both internal and external candidates to fill Freda’s position. With continued global inflationary pressures and a delayed recovery in the Chinese market, Estée Lauder’s sales are expected to remain impacted going forward. However, the change in CEO could potentially bring fresh perspectives and strategic initiatives to Estée Lauder, potentially leading to renewed growth and innovation. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Neutral Outlook.

雅诗兰黛 (EL)

• 24财年第四季营收：38.7亿美元，同比增幅7.2%，超预期7,000万美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.64美元，超预期0.39美元
• 25财年指引：预计销售额增长将在-1%至2%之间，而此前的预期为6.43%。预计全球高端美容业将增长2%至3%，反映出全球许多发达市场和新兴市场的持续强劲，但北美等某些大型市场的增长较为温和，部分被中国大陆和亚洲旅游零售业的持续下滑所抵消，原因是消费者信心和转化率较低。进一步预计，假设中国逐渐稳定并恢复增长，全球高端美容将在26财年重新加速至历史中位数的增长。
• 股息：宣布每股0.66美元的季度股息，与之前一致。于9月16日付息8月30日登记股东。
• 短评：雅诗兰黛公布第四季度营收38.7亿美元，每股收益0.64美元，超出分析师预期。尽管该公司的季度净销售额略高于预期，但预计未来一年将出现温和或负增长。这与行业趋势一致，因为其他公司也注意到全球美容市场的增长速度低于预期，而中国市场也没有反弹。由于全球美容市场需求低迷，尤其是在中国，雅诗兰黛预计2025年的利润和销售额将低于预期，为-1%至2%。公司宣布长期担任首席执行官的法布里齐奥·弗雷达退休，在首席财务官特雷西·特拉维斯最近离职后，他将接替首席执行官继任计划的一部分。董事会正在考虑内部和外部候选人来填补Freda的职位。全球通胀压力持续，中国市场复苏缓慢，预计未来兰黛的销售仍将受到影响。然而，首席执行官的变化可能会给雅诗兰黛带来新的视角和战略举措，可能会带来新的增长和创新。25年第一季度建议交易区间：80至100美元。中性前景。

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $2.2B, +12.8% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.51, beat estimates by $0.10
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect total revenue in the range of $2.10bn to $2.13bn, vs $2.10bn consensus and representing YoY growth of between 12% and 13%; Expect diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $1.47 to $1.49, vs $1.42 consensus, representing YoY growth of between 7% and 8%. FY25 Guidance: Expect total revenue in the range of $9.10bn to $9.15bn, vs $9.11bn consensus, representing YoY growth of between 13% and 14%; Expect Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 27.5% to 28.0%; Expect diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $6.18 to $6.31, vs $6.19 consensus, representing YoY growth of between 9% and 11%.
• Comment: Palo Alto Networks has reported impressive results, surpassing expectations and marking one of its best years to date. The company has successfully balanced profitable growth, increasing its non-GAAP operating margins by over 300 basis points, and demonstrating strong cash generation. This robust performance reflects the strength of its Next-Generation Security ARR and overall business commitments. While sales of firewall network appliances have slowed, cloud software revenue now plays a more significant role in overall sales, thanks to a broad cloud-based security platform developed through strategic acquisitions. The company is committed to its platformization strategy, consolidating cybersecurity services into a unified platform and bundling offerings to become a one-stop shop for clients. Looking ahead, Palo Alto Networks plans to scale its Next-Generation Security business through ongoing innovation and execution. Additionally, the board has authorized an extra $500 million for share repurchases, raising the company’s remaining buyback authorization to $1 billion, with the program set to expire at the end of 2025. A more favorable interest rate outlook is expected to further boost business confidence and sales growth. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $330 to $390. Positive Outlook.

派拓网络 (PANW)

• 24财年第四季营收：22亿美元，同比增幅12.8%，超预期4,000万美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.51美元，超预期0.10美元
• 25财年第一季指引：预计总收入在21亿至21.3亿美元之间，而市场预期为21亿美元，同比增长12%至13%；预计摊薄后Non-GAAP每股净利润在1.47美元至1.49美元之间，而市场预期为1.42美元，同比增长7%至8%。25财年指引：预计总收入在90.1亿美元至91.5亿美元之间，而市场预期为91.1亿美元，同比增长13%至14%；预计Non-GAAP营业利润率在27.5%至28.0%之间；预计摊薄后Non-GAAP每股净利润在6.18美元至6.31美元之间，而市场预期为6.19美元，同比增长9%至11%。
• 短评：派拓网络公司公布了令人印象深刻的业绩，超出预期，是迄今为止业绩最好的一年之一。该公司成功平衡了盈利增长，Non-GAAP营业利润率提高了300多个基点，并显示出强劲的现金生成能力。这一强劲的表现反映了其下一代安全业务年经常性收入的优势和整体业务承诺。虽然防火墙网络设备的销售已经放缓，但云软件收入现在在整体销售中扮演着更重要的角色，这要归功于通过战略收购开发的广泛的基于云的安全平台。该公司致力于其平台化战略，将网络安全服务整合为一个统一的平台，并将产品捆绑在一起，为客户提供一站式服务。展望未来，派拓网络公司计划通过持续的创新和执行来扩大其下一代安全业务。此外，董事会还批准了额外的5亿美元用于股票回购，将公司剩余的回购授权增加到10亿美元，该计划将于2025年底到期。更有利的利率前景预计将进一步提振商业信心和销售增长。25年第一季度建议交易区间：330至390美元。积极前景。