KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 2 December 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 93 Target 101, Stop 89
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Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS US)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 52 Target 56 Stop 50

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China Sunsine Chemical Holdings Ltd. (CSSC SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5Dema with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.470, Target 0.500, Stop 0.455
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Olam Group Ltd (OLAM SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.22 Target 1.30, Stop 1.18

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Sands China Ltd (1928 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 19.48, Target 21.00, Stop 18.72
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Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd (27 HK) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 33.8, Target 36.4, Stop 32.5

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Kohls Corp (KSS)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $3.5B, -7.9% YoY, miss estimates by $210M
  • 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.20, miss estimates by $0.07
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect full-year net sales to decline 7% to 8% as compared to its prior forecast of a 4% to 6% decline.
  • Dividend: Declared $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; payable on 24 Dec for shareholders of record 11 Dec
  • Comment: Kohls reported disappointing third-quarter results, with comparable sales down 9.3%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of decline, and earnings of US$0.20 per share, missing analyst expectations of US$0.28. Its revenue declined 7.9% YoY to US$3.5bn missing estimates by US$210mn, due to missteps in balancing new initiatives with core business management leading to even weaker sales in Q3. Investments in new categories like gifting and brands such as Babies “R” Us reduced the availability of private-label apparel, particularly in women’s fashion, further impacting sales. Kohl’s faces stiff competition from discount-heavy rivals like Walmart and Amazon during the holiday season, especially with fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Early and steep discounts across the retail sector may benefit these competitors more than Kohl’s. Amid these challenges, the company revised its annual sales outlook downward, now expecting a 7% to 8% decline, compared to the previous estimate of 4% to 6%. Additionally, Kohl’s announced a leadership change, with Ashley Buchanan set to succeed Tom Kingsbury as CEO in January, tasked with navigating a difficult retail environment. Given continued inflationary pressures, consumers are expected to focus on the best deals available, which may not position department stores like Kohl’s as the top choice during the holiday season. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $14 to $17. Neutral Outlook.

柯尔百货 (KSS)

  • 24财年第三季营收：35亿美元，同比跌幅7.9%，逊预期2.1亿美元
  • 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.2美元，逊预期0.07美元。
  • 24财年指引：预计全年净销售额将下降7%至8%，而此前预测为下降4%至6%。
  • 股息：宣布每股0.50美元的季度股息，与此前一致；12月11日为股东登记日，12月24日为付息日。
  • 短评：柯尔公布了令人失望的第三季度业绩，可比销售额下降9.3%，连续第11个季度下滑，每股收益为0.20美元，低于分析师预期的0.28美元。其收入同比下降7.9%至35亿美元，比预期低2.1亿美元，原因是在平衡新计划与核心业务管理方面的失误，导致第三季度的销售更加疲软。对礼品等新品类和婴儿反斗城等品牌的投资减少了自有品牌服装（尤其是女装）的供应，进一步影响了销售。节日期间，柯尔斯面临着来自沃尔玛和亚马逊等以折扣为主的竞争对手的激烈竞争，尤其是感恩节和圣诞节之间的购物日较少。与柯尔相比，零售行业的早期和大幅折扣可能会让这些竞争对手更受益。面对这些挑战，该公司下调了年度销售预期，目前预计将下降7%至8%，而此前的预期为4%至6%。此外，柯尔还宣布了领导层的变动，阿什利·布坎南将于明年1月接替汤姆·金斯伯里担任首席执行官，负责应对艰难的零售环境。考虑到持续的通胀压力，消费者预计会把注意力集中在最优惠的商品上，这可能不会让柯尔这样的百货公司成为假日购物季的首选。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：14至17美元。中性前景。

Best Buy Co Inc (BBY)

  • 3Q25 Revenue: $9.45B, -3.2% YoY, miss estimates by $180M
  • 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.26, miss estimates by $0.03
  • 4Q25 Guidance: FY25 has 52 weeks compared to 53 weeks in FY24. The company estimates the impact of the extra week in 4Q24 added approximately $735M in revenue, approximately 15 basis points of non-GAAP operating income rate and approximately $0.30 of non-GAAP diluted EPS to the full-year results.
  • FY25 Guidance: Lower revenue forecast to $41.1B to $41.5B from previous guidance of $41.3B to $41.9B and non-GAAP EPS to $6.10 to $6.25. Revise annual comparable sales downwards to decline between 2.5% to 3.5%, compared with its previous forecast of 1.5% and 3% decline.
  • Comment: Best Buy reported a larger-than-expected decline in Q3 comparable sales, down 2.8% in the US. versus analysts’ estimates of a 0.85% decline. The company also missed revenue and profit expectations, reporting US9.45bn lower than estimates and US$1.26 per share compared to the expected US$1.29. The company cited weaker-than-anticipated demand between promotional events. Its CEO highlighted cautious consumer spending on big-ticket items like electronics and home theater systems, even as inflationary pressures ease. To counter sluggish demand, Best Buy has rolled out early holiday promotions, including Black Friday deals a week earlier and weekly “Doorbusters” events through December. Despite these efforts, the company trimmed its annual forecasts, now expecting comparable sales to decline between 2.5% and 3.5%, down from the previous range of 1.5% to 3%. The results add to concerns about an uneven holiday season, with Best Buy facing strong competition from discount-driven retailers like Amazon and Walmart, the latter of which raised its annual targets due to higher demand from wealthier customers. Additionally, Best Buy addressed potential challenges from proposed tariffs on imports from China, which account for 60% of its cost of sales, stating it may have to pass on higher costs to consumers. The outlook reflects a challenging retail environment ahead, as cautious consumer behaviour and reliance on promotions weigh on profitability. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $95. Neutral Outlook.

百思买 (BBY)

  • 25财年第三季营收：94.5亿美元，同比跌幅3.2%，逊预期1.8亿美元
  • 25财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.26美元，逊预期0.03美元。
  • 25财年第四季指引：25财年为52周，而24财年为53周。该公司估计，24年第四季度额外一周的影响增加了约7.35亿美元的收入，约15个基点的Non-GAAP营业利润率和约0.30美元的Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益。
  • 25财年指引：营收预期从先前的413亿美元至419亿美元下调至411亿美元至415亿美元，Non-GAAP每股收益预期从6.10美元至6.25美元。将可比销售额年降幅从之前的1.5%至3%下调至2.5%至3.5%。。
  • 短评：百思买报告第三季度美国可比销售额下降2.8%，降幅超出预期。而分析师的预期是下降0.85%。该公司的收入和利润也低于预期，低于预期94.5亿美元，每股1.26美元，低于预期的1.29美元。该公司表示，促销活动之间的需求低于预期。该公司首席执行长强调，尽管通胀压力有所缓解，但消费者在电子产品和家庭影院系统等大件商品上的支出仍持谨慎态度。为了应对疲软的需求，百思买提前推出了节日促销活动，包括提前一周的“黑色星期五”促销，以及直到12月的每周“Doorbusters”活动。尽管做出了这些努力，该公司还是下调了年度预测，目前预计可比销售额将下降2.5%至3.5%，低于此前1.5%至3%的预期。这一结果加剧了人们对假日销售旺季不平衡的担忧，百思买面临着来自亚马逊和沃尔玛等以折扣为导向的零售商的激烈竞争。由于富裕客户的需求增加，沃尔玛提高了年度目标。此外，百思买还谈到了对中国进口商品征收关税的潜在挑战，称可能不得不将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。中国进口商品占百思买销售成本的60%。这一前景反映出未来的零售环境充满挑战，谨慎的消费者行为和对促销活动的依赖拖累了盈利能力。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：80至95美元。中性前景。

DICK’S Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $3.06B, flat YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.75, beat estimates by $0.06
  • FY24 Guidance: Raise EPS forecast of $13.65 to $13.95, versus the earlier forecast of $13.55 to $13.90. It anticipates sales of $13.2B to $13.3B, up from the previous $13.1B to $13.2B. Comparable store sales are predicted to grow 3.6% to 4.2%, compared to its earlier outlook of 2.5% to 3.5%.
  • Comment: Dick’s Sporting Goods reported strong Q3 results, exceeding expectations for both revenue and earnings, driven by a robust back-to-school shopping season. Comparable sales grew 4.2%, surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of 2.7%, with revenue rising slightly to US$3.06bn and earnings per share at US$2.75 compared to US$2.68 expected. Net income increased to US$228mn, up from US$201mn in the prior year. The company raised its fiscal 2024 guidance, now projecting same-store sales growth between 3.6% and 4.2%, up from its previous range of 2.5% to 3.5%. Full-year sales are now expected to be US$13.2bn to US$13.3bn, slightly above prior estimates, with earnings per share revised to US$13.65 to US$13.95. Dick’s continues to emphasize its “House of Sport” concept, with plans to open 15 more stores in 2025, aiming for 75–100 locations by 2027. Its CEO highlighted confidence in the company’s product offerings, service quality, and omnichannel strategy. Dick’s Sporting Goods is well positioned for the holiday season despite earlier cautious guidance ahead of the 2024 election. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $240. Neutral Outlook.

迪克体育用品 (DKS)

  • 24财年第三季营收：30.6亿美元，同比持平，超预期3,000万美元
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.75美元，超预期0.06美元。
  • 24财年指引：将每股盈利预测从13.65美元上调至13.95美元，此前预测为13.55美元至13.90美元。该公司预计销售额为132亿美元至133亿美元，高于此前的131亿美元至132亿美元。预计同店销售额将增长3.6%至4.2%，而此前的预期为2.5%至3.5%。
  • 短评：迪克体育用品公司公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，在强劲的返校购物季的推动下，收入和利润都超出了预期。同店销售额增长4.2%，超过华尔街预期的2.7%，收入小幅增长至30.6亿美元，每股收益为2.75美元，高于预期的2.68美元。净利润从上年的2.01亿美元增至2.28亿美元。该公司上调了2024财年的预期，目前预计同店销售额将增长3.6%至4.2%，高于此前2.5%至3.5%的预期。目前预计全年销售额为132亿至133亿美元，略高于此前的预期，每股收益修正为13.65美元至13.95美元。迪克继续强调其“运动之家”的概念，计划在2025年再开15家门店，到2027年达到75-100家。该公司首席执行官强调了对公司产品供应、服务质量和全渠道战略的信心。迪克体育用品公司在假日季的定位很好，尽管早前在2024年大选前给出了谨慎的指引。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：200至240美元。中性前景。

Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $2.53B, +11.0% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.55, in-line with estimates
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect adjusted EPS to be between $3.55 to $3.75, below consensus of $3.78; anticipates comparable store sales growth between 0% and 2%.
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect adjusted EPS to be between $7.76 to $7.96, compared with the prior outlook of $7.66 to $7.96, and vs consensus of $7.92; expects total sales to increase in the range of 9% to 10% and comparable sales to increase approximately 2%.
  • Comment: Burlington reported mixed results for the third quarter. Revenue growth was supported by a 1% increase in same-store sales, aided by the company’s proactive decision to limit cold-weather merchandise amid unseasonably warm weather. Excluding cold-weather categories, comparable sales rose 4%, highlighting Burlington’s adaptability and underlying operational strength. The company also advanced its store expansion strategy in 3Q24, opening new locations and remaining on track to achieve a net addition of 101 stores in fiscal 2024. This growth aligns with Burlington’s long-term goal of reaching 2,000 stores and further solidifies its presence across the U.S. However, freight costs remain a key challenge, exerting operational and competitive pressures. Burlington also issued a weaker-than-expected earnings outlook for 4Q24, citing potential consumption headwinds during the holiday season. To navigate this period, the company is carefully managing its inventory to maximize opportunities during the peak shopping period. Looking ahead, Burlington plans to continue its store expansion efforts while focusing on improving distribution and warehousing efficiency to enhance its supply chain resilience. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $265 to $305. Neutral Outlook.

伯灵顿百货 (BURL)

  • 24财年第三季营收：25.3亿美元，同比增幅11.0%，逊预期3,000万美元
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.55美元，符合预期。
  • 24财年第四季指引：预计调整后每股收益将在3.55美元至3.75美元之间，低于3.78美元的预期；预计可比店面销售额增长在0%至2%之间。
  • 24财年指引：预计调整后每股收益在7.76美元至7.96美元之间，而此前的预期为7.66美元至7.96美元，而市场预期为7.92美元；预计总销售额将增长9%至10%，可比销售额将增长约2%。
  • 短评：伯灵顿百货公布的第三季度业绩喜忧参半。营收增长得益于同店销售额增长1%，这得益于该公司在异常温暖的天气里积极决定限制寒冷天气的商品销售。除去寒冷天气品类，伯灵顿的可比销售额增长了4%，凸显了该公司的适应性和潜在的运营实力。该公司还在第三季度推进了门店扩张战略，开设了新的门店，并按计划在2024财年净增加101家门店。这一增长与伯灵顿达到2000家门店的长期目标一致，并进一步巩固了其在美国的地位。然而，货运成本仍然是一个关键挑战，带来了运营和竞争压力。伯灵顿还发布了低于预期的24年第四季度盈利前景，理由是假期期间可能出现消费逆风。为了度过这段时间，该公司正在仔细管理其库存，以最大限度地利用购物高峰期的机会。展望未来，伯灵顿计划继续其门店扩张努力，同时专注于提高配送和仓储效率，以增强其供应链的弹性。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：265至305美元。中性前景。

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $2.44B, -10.3% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.67, beat estimates by $0.03
  • 1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be $2.35bn (+/- 100mn), vs consensus of $2.34bn; Expect adjusted EPS to be $1.53 (+/- $0.10), vs consensus of $1.57, expected adjusted operating margins to be approx 40.0% (+/- 100 bps).
  • 4Q24 Dividend: Analog Devices declares $0.92/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 1.65%; Payable Dec. 20; for shareholders of record Dec. 9; ex-div Dec. 9.
  • Comment: Analog Devices reported robust quarterly results and issued an optimistic forecast, driven by strong performance in the automotive and consumer sectors. While industrial demand remained subdued, the company experienced higher-than-expected demand in its automotive, consumer, and communications segments, with a particular boost from sales of semiconductors for automotive applications. Management noted a steady recovery in bookings throughout the fourth quarter of FY24, especially in the automotive market, following a brief decline in the previous quarter. Despite unprecedented customer inventory challenges that led to a historic revenue decline during FY24, the company remains optimistic about strong growth in FY25, even as macroeconomic uncertainties persist. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $210 to $240. Neutral Outlook.

亚德诺 (ADI)

  • 24财年第四季营收：24.4亿美元，同比跌幅10.3%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.67美元，超预期0.03美元。
  • 25财年第一季指引：预计营收为23.5亿美元（+/- 1亿美元），而市场预期为23.4亿美元；预计调整后的每股收益为1.53美元（+/- 0.10美元），而市场预期为1.57美元，预计调整后的营业利润率约为40.0%（+/- 100个基点）。
  • 24财年第四季度股息：亚德诺宣布每股0.92美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期股息率为1.65%；12月20日为付息日；12月9日为股东登记日和除息日。
  • 短评：亚德诺公布了强劲的季度业绩，并发布了乐观的预测，这得益于汽车和消费领域的强劲表现。虽然工业需求仍然低迷，但该公司在汽车、消费和通信领域的需求高于预期，尤其是汽车应用半导体的销售。管理层注意到，在经历了上一季度的短暂下滑之后，整个24财年第四季度的预订量稳步回升，尤其是在汽车市场。尽管前所未有的客户库存挑战导致了24财年收入的历史性下降，但即使宏观经济不确定性持续存在，该公司仍对25财年的强劲增长持乐观态度。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：210至240美元。中性前景。

Dell Technologies Inc (DELL)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $24.37B, +9.3% YoY, miss estimates by $350M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.15, beat estimates by $0.09
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $1.18B vs consensus of $1.17B and non-GAAP income from operations between $443M and $448M. Expect non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.29 to $1.30 above consensus of $1.28.
  • FY25 Guidance: Raise revenue forecast to $4.65B to $4.66B and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.41 to $5.43 above consensus of $4.64B and $5.35 respectively. Non-GAAP income from operations to be between $1.81B and $1.82B and full fiscal flow of $1.58B to $1.62B.
  • Comment: Dell Technologies reported mixed results for the third quarter of FY24. The company highlighted record demand for its AI-optimized servers, with orders reaching $3.6 billion, driven by heightened interest in its portfolio. However, it forecasted fourth-quarter FY24 revenue below market expectations due to softer demand for traditional PCs and intensified competition from rival server manufacturers. The broader PC market continues to face challenges, with HP also signalling weakness in the current quarter and electronics retailer Best Buy trimming its annual forecasts amid sluggish consumer electronics demand. While Dell benefits from booming demand for AI-optimized servers designed for large-scale artificial intelligence workloads, its PC segment is under pressure from competitive forces and subdued consumer spending in an uncertain economic environment. Management noted that enterprise customers are exercising caution with their PC and IT budgets in the short term. Additionally, the company also acknowledged that its consumer business performance was weaker than anticipated. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $110 to $140. Neutral Outlook.

戴尔 (DELL)

  • 24财年第三季营收：243.7亿美元，同比增幅9.3%，逊预期3.5亿美元
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.15美元，超预期0.09美元。
  • 24财年第四季指引：预计收入为11.8亿美元，而市场预期为11.7亿美元，Non-GAAP运营收入在4.43亿美元至4.48亿美元之间。预计Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为1.29美元至1.30美元，高于市场预期的1.28美元。
  • 25财年指引：提高收入预期至46.5亿美元至46.6亿美元，Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为5.41美元至5.43美元，高于46.4亿美元和5.35美元的共识。Non-GAAP运营收入在18.1亿美元至18.2亿美元之间，全财年运营现金流为15.8亿美元至16.2亿美元。
  • 短评：戴尔公司公布了24财年第三季度喜忧参半的业绩。该公司强调了对其人工智能优化服务器的创纪录需求，由于对其投资组合的兴趣增加，订单达到36亿美元。然而，由于传统pc需求疲软以及来自竞争对手服务器制造商的竞争加剧，该公司预计24财年第四季度收入低于市场预期。更广泛的个人电脑市场继续面临挑战，惠普也表示当前季度业绩疲弱，电子产品零售商百思买在消费电子产品需求低迷之际下调了年度预测。虽然戴尔受益于为大规模人工智能工作负载而设计的人工智能优化服务器的蓬勃需求，但其个人电脑部门却面临着竞争力量和不确定经济环境下消费者支出低迷的压力。管理层指出，企业客户在短期内对其PC和IT预算持谨慎态度。此外，该公司还承认其消费者业务表现弱于预期。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：110至140美元。中性前景。

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD)

  • 3Q25 Revenue: $1.01B, +28.5% YoY, beat estimates by $26.97M
  • 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.93, beat estimates by $0.12
  • 4Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $1.03bn to $1.04bn, midpoint of $1.035bn vs consensus of $1.03; Expect Non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.84 and $0.86, midpoint of $0.85 below consensus of $0.86.
  • FY25 Guidance: Raise revenue forecast to $3.92bn to $3.93bn, midpoint of $3.925bn above consensus of $3.90bn; Expect non-GAAP EPS of $3.74 to $3.76, midpoint of $3.75 above consensus of $3.64B.
  • Comment: CrowdStrike delivered strong results and raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts, citing growing demand for cybersecurity services amid rising online threats. Businesses are increasingly turning to CrowdStrike’s comprehensive solutions to address the escalating risks of hacking and digital fraud. Despite this momentum, the company anticipates challenges stemming from the global tech outage on July 19, which has led to a forecast for fourth-quarter FY25 earnings below market expectations. However, CrowdStrike remains optimistic about delivering strong full-year FY25 profits. Market sentiment continues to favor a “reacceleration” of growth and profitability in the medium term, even as the company navigates short-term pressures from the outage. Meanwhile, competitor Palo Alto Networks outperformed expectations for its first quarter and continues to benefit from robust cybersecurity spending in November. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $330 to $380. Neutral Outlook.

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

  • 25财年第三季营收：10.1亿美元，同比增幅28.5%，超预期2,697万美元
  • 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.93美元，超预期0.12美元。
  • 25财年第四季指引：预计营收将在10.3亿美元至10.4亿美元之间，中间值为10.35亿美元，而市场预期为1.03美元；预计Non-GAAP每股收益将在0.84美元至0.86美元之间，中间值为0.85美元，低于市场预期的0.86美元。
  • 25财年指引：将营收预测上调至39.2亿美元至39.3亿美元，中值为39.25亿美元，高于市场预期的39.9亿美元；预计Non-GAAP每股收益为3.74美元至3.76美元，中间值为3.75美元，高于市场预期的36.4亿美元。
  • 短评：CrowdStrike公布了强劲的业绩，并上调了年度收入和利润预期，原因是网络威胁不断增加，对网络安全服务的需求不断增长。企业越来越多地转向CrowdStrike的综合解决方案，以应对不断升级的黑客攻击和数字欺诈风险。尽管势头强劲，但该公司预计7月19日全球技术中断将带来挑战，这导致其对25财年第四季度收益的预测低于市场预期。然而，CrowdStrike对实现强劲的25财年全年利润仍持乐观态度。市场情绪继续支持中期“重新加速”增长和盈利能力，尽管该公司应对了中断带来的短期压力。与此同时，竞争对手派拓网络第一季度的表现超出了预期，并继续从11月份强劲的网络安全支出中受益。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：310至380美元。中性前景。

HP Inc. (HPQ)

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $14.06B, +1.7% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
  • 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.93, in-line with estimates
  • 1Q25 Guidance: Expect EPS to be between $0.70 to $0.76, vs consensus of $0.86
  • FY25 Guidance: Expect EPS will be $3.45 to $3.75, vs consensus of $3.60.
  • Comment: HP’s reported earnings in line with market expectations but issued a profit outlook for the current quarter that fell short of estimates, highlighting continued challenges in the recovery of the personal computer (PC) market after a prolonged downturn. Rival company Dell also forecasted a weaker current quarter, signalling a weakness in the PC market. In HP’s printing segment, revenue grew by 1%, marking the first expansion in this business since late 2021. Meanwhile, the PC segment posted a 2% revenue increase, although this fell below market forecasts due to a smaller-than-expected boost in business computer sales. The release of Microsoft’s latest Windows edition has not spurred PC demand as rapidly as previous versions. The company also noted rising component costs as a key factor impacting profitability, rather than any significant demand-related issues. Management anticipates a decline in component prices by 2025, which could provide relief to margins moving forward. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $33 to $39. Neutral Outlook.

惠普 (HPQ)

  • 24财年第四季营收：140.6亿美元，同比增幅1.7%，超预期6,000万美元
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.93美元，符合预期。
  • 25财年第一季指引：预期每股收益在0.70美元至0.76美元之间，而市场预期为0.86美元。
  • 25财年指引：预期每股收益为3.45至3.75美元，而市场预期为3.60美元。
  • 短评：惠普公布的收益符合市场预期，但发布的当前季度盈利展望低于预期，突显个人电脑市场在长期低迷后复苏面临的持续挑战。其竞争对手戴尔公司也预测当前季度业绩将较为疲弱，表明个人电脑市场疲软。在惠普的打印部门，收入增长了1%，这是自2021年底以来该业务的首次扩张。与此同时，个人电脑部门公布了2%的收入增长，尽管这低于市场预期，因为商用电脑销售的增长低于预期。微软发布的最新版Windows操作系统并没有像之前的版本那样迅速刺激个人电脑需求。该公司还指出，零部件成本上升是影响盈利能力的关键因素，而不是任何与需求相关的重大问题。管理层预计，到2025年，零部件价格将下降，这可能会缓解未来利润率的压力。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：33至39美元。中性前景。