Technical Analysis – 19 May 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK US)

• Shares closed at a high since January 2025. 5dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 46.0, Target 52.0, Stop 43.0
  

TORM plc. (TRMD US)

• Shares closed at a high since March 2025. 5dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 17.6, Target 19.6, Stop 16.6
  

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Frasers Property Ltd. (FPL SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Buy – Entry 0.820, Target 0.860, Stop 0.800
  

Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd. (HKL SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Buy – Entry 5.10 Target 5.50, Stop 4.90
  

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  
• Long – Entry 50.8 Target 55.0, Stop 48.7
  
  
  
  
  

  

  
  

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd (3692 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  
• Long – Entry 23.2, Target 24.8, Stop 22.4
  
  
  

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)

• 4Q25 Revenue: $32.58B, +7% YoY, miss estimates by $740M
  
• 4Q25 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.73, miss estimates by $0.05
  
• FY26 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Alibaba’s Q1 revenue grew 7% to RMB236.5bn, slightly missing analyst expectations due to sluggish Chinese consumer spending and intensifying competition in e-commerce and AI. Net income surged to RMB12.4bn, driven partly by investment gains. Despite efforts to revive growth through AI development and streamlining its business, Alibaba’s performance missed estimates. The company is prioritising AI infrastructure, with over RMB380bn committed over three years, and refocusing core operations on e-commerce and international expansion. Its latest AI model, Qwen 3, rivals peers like DeepSeek, but Alibaba faces fierce domestic competition from Baidu, Tencent, PDD, and ByteDance. Meanwhile, Taobao-Tmall saw improved customer engagement, but rising costs pressured margins. Alibaba is positioning itself for long-term recovery by doubling down on AI innovation, strategic partnerships, and international expansion. While near-term headwinds persist, particularly in consumer demand and competitive pressures, government stimulus and infrastructure investments could support a gradual rebound in core commerce and cloud earnings through FY26. 1Q26 recommended trading range: $110 to $135. Neutral Outlook.
  

阿里巴巴(BABA)

• 25财年第四季营收：325.8亿美元，同比增长7%，低于预期7.4亿美元
  
• 25财年第四季Non-GAAP每股收益：1.73美元，低于预期0.05美元
  
• 26财年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评： 阿里巴巴第一季度营收增长7%，达到2,365亿元人民币，略低于分析师预期，主要受到中国消费者支出疲软和电商及AI领域竞争加剧的影响。净利润飙升至124亿元人民币，部分得益于投资收益。尽管通过AI开发和优化业务来恢复增长的努力，阿里巴巴的业绩仍未达到预期。公司优先考虑AI基础设施，承诺在三年内投入超过3,800亿元人民币，并将核心业务重心放在电商和国际扩展上。其最新的AI模型Qwen 3与DeepSeek等同行竞争，但阿里巴巴面临来自百度、腾讯、拼多多和字节跳动的激烈国内竞争。同时，淘宝和天猫的客户参与度有所改善，但成本上升对利润率造成压力。阿里巴巴通过加大对AI创新、战略合作和国际扩展的投入，力求实现长期复苏。尽管短期内消费者需求和竞争压力持续存在，但政府刺激和基础设施投资可能支持核心电商和云收入在26财年逐步反弹。26财年第一季度建议交易区间：110美元至135美元。中性前景。
  

Walmart Inc (WMT)

• 1Q26 Revenue: $165.6B, +2.5% YoY, beat estimates by $1.17B
  
• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.61, beat estimates by $0.03
  
• 2Q26 Guidance: Expect consolidated net sales between 3.5% and 4.5%, compared to expectations of 3.46% growth.
  
• FY26 Guidance: Maintain expectations of adjusted earnings per share in the range of US$2.50 to US$2.60 and annual sales to rise between 3% and 4%.
  
• Comment: Walmart reported strong Q1 results, with U.S. same-store sales up 4.5% and global e-commerce sales rising 22%, marking the first full quarter of profitability for its online segment. However, the retailer warned it will raise prices later this month due to persistent high tariffs, particularly on goods from China, which continue to pressure its narrow retail margins. Executives cited limited ability to absorb these costs and flagged that select general merchandise categories will be most affected, although food prices are expected to be shielded. Walmart is also working with suppliers to mitigate the impact through substitutions. Despite these challenges, Walmart maintained its full-year guidance, expecting 3%-4% annual sales growth and adjusted EPS of US$2.50-US$2.60 for FY26. The company withheld Q2 EPS guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and the unpredictable tariff environment. It expects net sales to be between 3.5%-4.5% in Q2. Looking ahead, Walmart’s scale, supply chain flexibility, and growing e-commerce profitability position it well to navigate near-term tariff headwinds. While some margin pressure is likely, the company’s strategic cost management, resilient customer base, and continued investments in omnichannel capabilities should support stable results through FY26. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $98. Neutral Outlook.
  

沃尔玛 (WMT)

• 26财年第一季营收：1,656亿美元，同比增长2.5%，超出预期11.7亿美元
  
• 26财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.61美元，超出预期0.03美元
  
• 26财年第二季指引：预计综合净销售增长在3.5%至4.5%之间，而市场预期为3.46%的增长。
  
• 26财年指引：维持每股调整后收益在2.50美元至2.60美元之间的预期，预计年度销售额增长在3%至4%之间。
  
• 短评： 沃尔玛报告了强劲的第一季度业绩，美国同店销售上涨4.5%，全球电商销售增长22%，标志着其在线业务的首个完整季度盈利。然而，零售商警告称，由于持续的高关税，特别是对来自中国商品的关税，该公司将在本月晚些时候提高价格，这对其狭窄的零售利润率造成压力。高管们提到吸收这些成本的能力有限，并指出某些一般商品类别将受到最大影响，尽管食品价格预计会受到保护。沃尔玛还与供应商合作以通过替代品减轻影响。尽管面临这些挑战，沃尔玛维持其全年指引，预计26财年实现3%至4%的年度销售增长和每股调整收益在2.50美元至2.60美元之间。公司未提供第二季度每股收益指引，理由是宏观经济不确定性和不可预测的关税环境。预计第二季度净销售增长在3.5%至4.5%之间。展望未来，沃尔玛的规模、供应链灵活性和不断增长的电商盈利能力使其能够应对短期的关税压力。尽管可能面临一定的利润压力，但公司的战略成本管理、强韧的客户基础及对全渠道能力的持续投资应支持其在26财年保持稳定的业绩。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：90美元至98美元。中性前景。
  

Deere & Company. (DE)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $12.76B, -16.3% YoY, beat estimates by $1.97B
  
• 2Q25 GAAP EPS: $6.64, beat estimates by $1.00
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect net income to be between $4.75bn to $5.50bn, compared to a range of $5.0bn to $5.5bn previously; Expect net sales for production & precision AG to be down 15% to 20%, compared to be down around 15% previously; Expect net sales for small AG and turf to be down 10% to 15%, compared to be down around 10% previously; Expect net sales for construction & forestry to be down 10% to 15%; Expect net operating cash flow to be between $4.5bn to $5.5bn.
  
• Comment: Deere & Co delivered solid results, driven by effective cost-saving initiatives and disciplined inventory management. However, sales declined year-over-year as high interest rates and softer crop prices prompted farmers to favor renting over purchasing large machinery like tractors and combines. Deere partially offset the impact of weaker demand by cutting production and warranty-related costs. The company lowered its FY25 guidance to reflect the anticipated impact of tariffs, which are expected to weigh on its core customer base—farmers. Management estimates pre-tax tariff costs will exceed $500 million in 2025 and emphasized a cautious approach amid ongoing uncertainty. Despite near-term pressures, leadership remains confident in Deere’s long-term prospects. Notably, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a market rebound in 2025, offering a potential tailwind for the business. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $500 to $545. Positive Outlook.
  

迪尔股份（DE）

• 25财年第二季营收：127.6亿美元，同比下降16.3%，超出预期19.7亿美元
  
• 25财年第二季GAAP每股收益：6.64美元，超出预期1.00美元
  
• 25财年指引：预计全年净利润将在47.5亿至55亿美元之间，较此前预测的50亿至55亿美元略微下调；生产与精准农业部门的净销售额预计将同比下降15%至20%，此前预期为下降约15%；小型农业与草坪设备部门的净销售额预计将下降10%至15%，此前预期为下降约10%；建筑与林业部门的净销售额预计下降10%至15%；净经营现金流预计为45亿至55亿美元。
  
• 短评：迪尔公布了稳健的业绩表现，得益于有效的成本控制措施和严格的库存管理。然而，由于高利率和农产品价格疲软，农户更倾向于租赁而非购买大型机械，如拖拉机和联合收割机，导致公司销售同比下滑。通过削减产量和保修相关费用，公司在一定程度上缓解了需求疲软的影响。公司下调了25财年指引，以反映关税可能带来的影响，预计将对其核心客户群——农户——构成压力。管理层预计2025年关税将在税前带来超过5亿美元的成本，并表示公司将采取审慎态度应对持续的不确定性。尽管面临短期压力，管理层仍对公司长期前景保持信心。值得注意的是，美国农业部预计2025年农业市场将出现复苏，有望为公司带来新的增长动力。25财年第三季建议交易区间：500美元至545美元。积极前景。
  

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $7.1B, +6.8% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.39, beat estimates by $0.08
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be $7.20bn (+/- $500mn), midpoint in-line with consensus; Expect Non-GAAP gross margin to be 48.3%; Expect Non-GAAP EPS to be $2.35 (+/-$0.20), midpoint above consensus of $2.31.
  
• Comment: Applied Materials delivered stronger-than-expected earnings, though revenue fell short of estimates, primarily due to weaker sales in its largest business segment amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. export restrictions. The company cited a slowdown in investment within the ICAPS market—which includes applications in IoT, communications, automotive, power, and sensors. However, this softness was partially offset by robust spending on advanced chip technologies. In December, the U.S. government introduced new controls restricting the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment used for advanced-node production to China. These measures have significantly affected Applied Materials, whose largest market is China. During the second quarter, revenue from China accounted for approximately 25% of total sales, down from 43% a year earlier, reflecting the impact of these trade curbs. Despite this challenge, the company remains optimistic, anticipating a recovery as investments in advanced process nodes ramp up in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Additionally, recent developments in U.S.–China trade relations could provide further support. The two countries have reached a key agreement aimed at easing bilateral tensions, and China has suspended its retaliatory 125% tariffs on select U.S. semiconductor imports. These moves could pave the way for a near-term rebound in sales to China. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $150 to $180. Neutral Outlook.
  

应用材料公司 (AMAT)

• 25财年第二季营收：71亿美元，同比增长6.8%，低于预期2,000万美元
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股收益：2.39美元，超出预期0.08美元
  
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收为72亿美元（±5亿美元），中值与市场一致；预计Non-GAAP毛利率为48.3%；预计Non-GAAP每股收益为2.35美元（±0.20美元），中值高于市场预期的2.31美元。
  
• 短评： 应用材料公司报告的业绩超出预期，尽管营收未能达到预期，主要是因为其最大业务板块的销售疲软，受到美国出口限制的持续不确定性影响。公司提到ICAPS市场（包括物联网、通信、汽车、电力和传感器应用）的投资放缓。然而，这一疲软部分被对先进芯片技术的强劲支出所抵消。去年12月，美国政府推出了新的管控措施，限制向中国出口用于先进工艺生产的半导体制造设备。这些措施对应用材料公司影响显著，其最大市场是中国。在第二季度，来自中国的营收约占总销售的25%，低于去年同期的43%，反映了贸易限制的影响。尽管面临这些挑战，公司仍然保持乐观，预计随着对先进工艺节点的投资在2025年下半年和2026年加速，将会复苏。此外，美中贸易关系的最新发展也可能提供进一步支持。两国已达成旨在缓解双边紧张关系的关键协议，中国已暂停对部分美国半导体进口的125%报复性关税。这些举措可能为对中国的销售回暖铺平道路。25财年第三季建议交易区间：150美元至180美元。中性前景。