Technical Analysis – 19 December 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Jabil, Inc. (JBL US)

• Shares closed at a high since March 2024 with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 142 Target 152, Stop 137
  

Boeing Co. (BA US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 170 Target 190 Stop 160
  

^ Back To Top

Riverstone Holdings Ltd. (RSTON SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with more volume.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.06, Target 1.16, Stop 1.01
  

Geo Energy Resources Ltd. (GERL SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.270 Target 0.300, Stop 0.255
  

^ Back To Top

Bank of Communications Co Ltd (3328 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 5.97, Target 6.33, Stop 5.79
  

China Merchants Bank Co Ltd (3968 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 37.8, Target 40.8, Stop 36.3
  

^ Back To Top

General Mills Inc. (GIS)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $5.24B, +2.0% YoY, beat estimates by $100M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.40, beat estimates by $0.18
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect organic net sales to be on the lower end of the range of flat and +1%, midpoint of 0.50% below consensus of 0.62%; expects adjusted diluted EPS to be down 3% and 1% in constant currency; expect adjusted operating profit to be down 4% and down 2% in constant currency; expects free cash flow conversion to be at least 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings.
  
• Comment: General Mills reported stronger-than-expected earnings but revised its FY2025 outlook downward, citing an uncertain macroeconomic environment affecting consumers in its key markets. Management emphasized notable progress in boosting volume growth and improving market share trends during the first half of the year. This includes returning the North America Pet segment to growth by focusing on promoting the high-quality ingredients of its Blue Buffalo pet food brand. Additionally, brand campaigns and product innovation have driven a recovery in U.S. cereal market share. Despite these gains, the company plans to increase investments in the coming quarters, which may impact FY2025 profitability. However, management expressed confidence that these investments will better position General Mills for sustained growth in fiscal 2026 and beyond. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $60 to $68. Neutral Outlook.
  

通用磨坊 (GIS)

• 25财年第二季营收：52.4亿美元，同比增幅2.0%，超預期1亿美元
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.40美元，超预期0.18美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计有机净销售额将在持平和+1%区间的低端，中间值为0.50%，低于普遍预期的0.62%；预计调整后的稀释每股收益将分别下降3%和1%（按固定汇率计算）；预计调整后的营业利润将下降4%，按固定汇率计算将下降2%；预计自由现金流转换至少占调整后税后收益的95%。
  
• 短评：通用磨坊公布了强于预期的收益，但下调了2025财年的预期，理由是不确定的宏观经济环境影响了其主要市场的消费者。管理层强调，今年上半年在促进销量增长和改善市场份额趋势方面取得了显著进展。这包括通过专注于推广其Blue Buffalo宠物食品品牌的高品质成分，使北美宠物市场恢复增长。此外，品牌活动和产品创新推动了美国谷物市场份额的复苏。尽管取得了这些收益，但公司计划在未来几个季度增加投资，这可能会影响2025财年的盈利能力。然而，管理层表示有信心，这些投资将使通用磨坊在2026财年及以后的持续增长中处于更好的地位。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：60至68美元。中性前景。
  

Micron Technology Inc. (MU)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $8.71B, +7.5% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.79, beat estimates by $0.02
  
• 1Q25 dividend: Micron board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.115 per share.
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be $7.90B (+-$200M), below consensus of $8.97B; Expect non-GAAP gross margin to be 38.5% (+-1%); Expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be $1.10B (+-$15M); Expect non-GAAP EPS to be $1.43 (+-$0.10), below consensus of $1.93.
  
• Comment: Micron delivered stronger-than-expected results, driven by robust demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, a type of DRAM used in artificial intelligence applications. Revenue from HBM more than doubled sequentially, emerging as a key growth driver. However, the broader DRAM market, which constitutes the majority of Micron’s revenue, remains sluggish due to weak consumer demand and a persistent supply glut. The company reaffirmed its forecast of low-single-digit growth for smartphones in 2025, aligned with prior expectations. Micron issued a disappointing outlook, citing a weaker-than-anticipated PC upgrade cycle and softness in the automotive and industrial markets. While consumer-oriented segments remain under pressure in the near term, management expects a return to growth in the second half of fiscal 2025. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $95. Neutral Outlook.
  

美光 (MU)

• 25财年第一季营收：87.0亿美元，同比增幅7.5%，超预期1,000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.79美元，超预期0.02美元。
  
• 25财年第二季股息：美光董事会宣布季度股息为每股0.115美元。
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收为70.9亿美元（+-2亿美元），低于89.7亿美元的预期；预计Non-GAAP毛利率为38.5%(+-1%)；预计Non-GAAP运营费用为11.1亿美元（+-1500万美元）；预计Non-GAAP每股收益为1.43美元（+-0.10美元），低于预期的1.93美元。
  
• 短评：由于市场对其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片的强劲需求，美光的业绩强于预期。HBM是一种用于人工智能应用的DRAM。来自HBM的收入环比增长了一倍以上，成为主要的增长动力。然而，由于消费者需求疲软和持续供应过剩，构成美光大部分收入的更广泛的DRAM市场仍然低迷。该公司重申了其对2025年智能手机低个位数增长的预测，与此前的预期一致。美光发布了令人失望的前景，理由是PC升级周期弱于预期，以及汽车和工业市场疲软。虽然面向消费者的业务在短期内仍面临压力，但管理层预计2025财年下半年将恢复增长。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：80至95美元。中性前景。
  

Lennar Corp. (LEN)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $9.95B, +7.5% YoY, miss estimates by $160M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.03, miss estimates by $0.09
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Company expects new orders of 17.5K-18.0K (vs. 20.0K consensus), deliveries of 17.0K-17.5K, average sales price of $410.0K-$415.0K (vs. $420.3K consensus), and gross margin on home sales of 19.0%-19.25%.
  
• Comment: Lennar reported disappointing results and provided disappointing guidance for 1Q25, reflecting continued challenges in the housing market amid rising mortgage rates. The company reaffirmed its focus on a volume-based strategy, prioritizing sales and cash flow while leveraging margins as a buffer. Lennar is also progressing toward an asset-light, land-light business model to enhance flexibility. However, industry sentiment remained subdued in December, as highlighted by a National Association of Home Builders index. Market expectations suggest home prices will remain flat, with builders relying on incentives to attract buyers. However, rising land and labor costs could further pressure margins. Persistent headwinds, including high interest rates, escalating construction costs, and a shortage of buildable lots, continue to weigh on the sector. Despite the near-term challenges, builders expressed greater optimism about sales expectations over the next six months, even as they remained cautious about current sales conditions and buyer traffic. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $125 to $145. Neutral Outlook.
  

莱纳建筑 (LEN )

• 24财年第四季营收：99.5亿美元，同比增幅7.5%，逊预期1.6亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.03美元，逊预期0.09美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：公司预计新订单为17.5万至18.0万（市场预期为20.0万），交付量为17.0 至17.5万，平均销售价格为410万至415.0万美元（市场预期为420.3万美元），房屋销售毛利率为19.0%至19.25%。
  
• 短评：莱纳公布了令人失望的业绩，并提供了令人失望的第一季度指导，反映了在抵押贷款利率上升的情况下，房地产市场面临的持续挑战。该公司重申其专注于以数量为基础的战略，优先考虑销售和现金流，同时利用利润率作为缓冲。莱纳也在朝着轻资产、轻土地的商业模式发展，以增强灵活性。然而，全美住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的一项指数突显出，12月份行业信心依然低迷。市场预期显示，房价将保持平稳，建筑商将依靠激励措施吸引买家。然而，不断上涨的土地和劳动力成本可能会进一步压低利润率。持续的不利因素，包括高利率、不断上升的建筑成本和可建造地块的短缺，继续给该行业带来压力。尽管近期面临挑战，但建筑商对未来六个月的销售预期表达了更为乐观的态度，尽管他们对当前的销售状况和买家流量仍持谨慎态度。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：125至145美元。中性前景。