KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 16 September 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with more volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.00 Target 6.80, Stop 5.60
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Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SAND US)

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  • Shares closed above the 52-week high with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.10, Target 6.90, Stop 5.70

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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd (YZJ SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 2.53, Target 2.75, Stop 2.42
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Singapore Post Ltd (SPOST SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.46 Target 0.50, Stop 0.44

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SITC International Holdings Co Ltd (1308 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 18.1, Target 19.5, Stop 17.4
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China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628 HK) A screenshot of a graph Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 11.24, Target 12.08, Stop 10.82

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Kroger Co (KR)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $33.91B, +0.2% YoY, miss estimates by $210M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.93, beat estimates by $0.02
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect adjusted FIFO operating profit of $4.6B to $4.8B, adjusted net earning per diluted share of $4.3 to $4.5, adjusted free cash flow of $2.5B to $2.7B and adjusted effective tax rate of 23%. Revised identical sales without fuel to range from 0.75% to 1.75% and capital expenditures of $3.6B to $3.8B.
  • Comment: Kroger’s second-quarter identical sales (excluding fuel) grew by 1.2%, beating estimates, however its overall sales grew by 0.2% YoY, missing analysts estimates. Adjusted earnings were US$0.93 per share, slightly above predictions. Kroger raised the lower end of its annual sales forecast after exceeding quarterly earnings expectations, thanks to its strategy of offering fresh groceries at lower prices, which attracted budget-conscious customers. As consumers continue to face tight budgets, they are seeking affordable options, prompting more at-home eating and deal-hunting. Promotions have helped Kroger stay competitive with Walmart, which also saw strong demand for low-cost essentials. Kroger’s US$25bn merger with Albertsons is under antitrust review, but the company remains confident it will proceed. The Federal Trade Commission and several states have gone to trial to block the deal over concerns it could raise prices and weaken labour bargaining power. Kroger plans to lower grocery prices by US$1bn after the merger. The company now expects fiscal 2024 sales growth between 0.75% and 1.75%, up from a previous range of 0.25% to 1.75%. Despite tight consumer budgets, we anticipate that Kroger will continue to maintain its stability despite competition and price pressures. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $60. Neutral Outlook.

克罗格 (KR)

  • 24财年第二季营收：339.1亿美元，同比增幅0.2%，逊预期2.1亿美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.93美元，超预期0.02美元
  • 24财年指引：预计调整后的FIFO营业利润为46亿至48亿美元，调整后的摊薄每股净收益为4.3至4.5美元，调整后的自由现金流为25亿至27亿美元，调整后的有效税率为23%。将不含燃料的相同销售额调整为0.75%至1.75%，资本支出为36亿至38亿美元。
  • 短评：克罗格第二季度的销售额(不含燃料)增长了1.2%，超出预期，但其整体销售额同比增长0.2%，低于分析师的预期。调整后每股收益为0.93美元，略高于预期。克罗格在季度收益超出预期后，上调了年度销售预测的下限，这得益于其以较低价格提供新鲜食品的战略，吸引了精打节俭的顾客。由于消费者继续面临预算紧张的局面，他们正在寻求负担得起的选择，这促使更多的人在家吃饭和淘便宜货。促销活动帮助克罗格保持了与沃尔玛的竞争力，后者也看到了对低成本必需品的强劲需求。克罗格与艾伯森250亿美元的合并正在接受反垄断审查，但该公司仍有信心继续进行。美国联邦贸易委员会和几个州已对该交易提起诉讼，以阻止该交易，原因是担心该交易可能提高价格，削弱劳工的议价能力。克罗格计划在合并后将食品杂货价格降低10亿美元。该公司目前预计，2024财年的销售额增长率将在0.75%至1.75%之间，高于此前0.25%至1.75%的区间。尽管消费者预算紧张，但我们预计克罗格将在竞争和价格压力下继续保持稳定。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：50至60美元。中性前景。

Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $5.41B, +10.6% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.65, beat estimates by $0.11
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect total revenue of $5.50B to $5.55B vs consensus of $5.60B, digital media net new ARR to be around $550M, digital media segment revenue $4.09B to $4.12B. DIgital experience segment revenue to be $1.36B to $1.38B, digital experience subscription revenue to be $1.23B to 1.25B, non-GAAP earnings per share $4.63 to $4.68 vs consensus of $4.67.
  • Comment: Adobe delivered third-quarter revenue and earnings which exceeded analysts’ estimates. However, it forecasted lower-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, signaling weak demand and competition for its AI-integrated tools amid challenging economic conditions. High interest rates and a tough economy have led businesses and individuals to cut costs, putting pressure on Adobe’s growth. The company, which is known for popular software like Photoshop and Premiere Pro, faces increasing competition from startups like Stability AI and Midjourney. Adobe projects fourth-quarter revenue between US$5.50bn and US$5.55bn, below analyst expectations of US$5.61bn, and adjusted profit between US$4.63 and US$4.68 per share, in line with forecasts of US$4.67. The company’s third-quarter revenue of US$5.41bn exceeded estimates, but operating expenses also rose to US$2.86bn from US$2.61bn a year earlier. Adobe’s upcoming release of the generative AI video tool, Adobe Firefly Video Model, in the second half of the year, offers a potential catalyst for growth. However, given the competitive landscape and customers’ cost-cutting measures, the extent of its contribution to revenue growth remains uncertain. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $500 to $580. Neutral Outlook.

奥多比 (ADBE)

  • 24财年第三季营收：54.1亿美元，同比增幅10.6%，超预期4,000万美元
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.65美元，超预期0.11美元
  • 24财年第四季指引：预计总收入为55亿至55.5亿美元，而市场预期为56亿美元，数字媒体部门净新每年经常性收入约为5.5亿美元，数字媒体部门收入为40.9亿至41.2亿美元。数字体验部门收入将达到13.6亿美元至13.8亿美元，数字体验订阅收入将达到12.3亿美元至12.5亿美元，Non-GAAP每股收益为4.63美元至4.68美元，而市场预期为4.67美元。
  • 短评：奥多比公布的第三季度收入和收益超过了分析师的预期。然而，它预测第四季度的收益低于预期，这表明在充满挑战的经济环境下，对其人工智能集成工具的需求和竞争疲软。高利率和艰难的经济形势促使企业和个人削减成本，给Adobe的增长带来压力。这家以Photoshop和Premiere Pro等流行软件而闻名的公司，面临着来自Stability AI和Midjourney等初创公司日益激烈的竞争。奥多比预计第四季度收入在55亿美元至55.5亿美元之间，低于分析师预期的56.1亿美元，调整后每股利润在4.63美元至4.68美元之间，与预测的4.67美元相符。该公司第三季度收入为54.1亿美元，超出预期，但运营费用也从去年同期的26.1亿美元上升至28.6亿美元。奥多比即将在今年下半年发布的生成式人工智能视频工具Adobe Firefly video Model，为增长提供了潜在的催化剂。然而，考虑到竞争格局和客户削减成本的措施，其对收入增长的贡献程度仍不确定。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：500至580美元。中性前景。

RH (RH)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $829.66M, +3.7% YoY, beat estimates by $5.16M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.69, beat estimates by $0.08
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect demand growth to range between 12% to 14%, revenue growth in the range of 7% to 9%, adjusted operating margin to be 15% to 16% and adjusted EBITDA margin to be 21% to 22%.
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect demand in the range of 8% to 10%, revenue growth to be between 5% to 7%, adjusted operating margin to be 11% to 12% and adjusted EBITDA margin to be 17% to 18%.
  • Comment: RH reported strong second-quarter results for fiscal 2024, with net revenues of US$830mn, up 3.7% YoY, and an adjusted operating margin of 11.7%. Demand increased by 7% during the quarter and continued gaining momentum into the third quarter. Despite a challenging housing market, RH’s product transformation and platform expansion are driving market share growth, with plans for long-term global expansion. RH’s acquisitions, such as Waterworks, and new product launches, including several new RH Interiors and Modern Sourcebooks, are expected to fuel further demand. The company is also opening new immersive physical locations, including flagship galleries in Newport Beach, Raleigh, and Montecito, California. Looking forward, RH expects demand to continue accelerating into fiscal 2024 and 2025, though revenue may lag due to backorders. The company has revised its full-year outlook, forecasting demand growth of 8% to 10%, revenue growth of 5% to 7%, and adjusted EBITDA margins of 17% to 18%. For the third quarter, it forecasts demand growth of 12% to 14% and revenue growth of 7% to 9%. As interest rates ease and the housing market improves, RH is well-positioned to capitalize on increased consumer spending on home furnishings and decor. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $280 to $350. Positive Outlook.

RH (RH)

  • 24财年第二季营收：8.2966亿美元，同比增幅3.7%，超预期516万美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.69美元，超预期0.08美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计需求增长将在12%至14%之间，收入增长将在7%至9%之间，调整后的营业利润率将在15%至16%之间，调整后的EBITDA利润率将在21%至22%之间。
  • 24财年指引：预计需求在8%到10%之间，收入增长在5%到7%之间，调整后的营业利润率在11%到12%之间，调整后的EBITDA利润率在17%到18%之间。
  • 短评：RH公布了强劲的24财年第二季度业绩，净收入为8.3亿美元，同比增长3.7%，调整后营业利润率为11.7%。第二季度需求增长了7%，并在第三季度继续保持增长势头。尽管房地产市场充满挑战，但RH的产品转型和平台扩张正在推动市场份额的增长，并计划进行长期的全球扩张。RH的收购，如Waterworks，以及新产品的推出，包括几个新的RH Interiors和Modern Sourcebooks，预计将推动进一步的需求。该公司还开设了新的沉浸式实体店，包括位于加州新港海滩、罗利和蒙特西托的旗舰画廊。展望未来，RH预计需求将继续加速到2024财年和2025财年，尽管由于订单不足，收入可能会滞后。该公司已经调整了全年预期，预计需求增长8%至10%，收入增长5%至7%，调整后的EBITDA利润率为17%至18%。该公司预计，第三季度需求将增长12%至14%，收入将增长7%至9%。随着利率的放松和房地产市场的改善，RH处于有利地位，可以利用消费者在家居装饰和装饰方面增加的支出。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：280至350美元。积极前景。