Technical Analysis – 15 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD US)

• Shares closed a high since February 2024 with constructive volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 9.70 Target 10.70, Stop 9.20

Tapestry, Inc. (TPR US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 57 Target 63, Stop 54

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Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd. (BTH SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.350, Target 0.380, Stop 0.335

Bumitama Agri Ltd (BAL SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5wEMA with constructive volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 0.830 Target 0.890, Stop 0.800

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HKBN Ltd. (1310 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume. 50dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 3.85, Target 4.25, Stop 3.65

Blue Moon Group Holdings Ltd (6993 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 3.55, Target 3.95, Stop 3.35

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Walt Disney Co (DIS)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $22.57B, +6.3% YoY, beat estimates by $80M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.14, beat estimates by $0.03
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect modest decline in Q1 Disney+ Core subscribers versus Q4. Q1 Content Sales/Licensing and Other operating income relatively in-line with Q4. Sports segment 13% operating income growth compared to fiscal 2024 on a reported basis. Adjusting for the impact of its India business on Sports’ fiscal 2024 results, operating income is expected to decrease approximately 10%. Experiences segment to expect 6% to 8% operating income growth compared to fiscal 2024, weighted to the second half of the year. Q1 operating income adversely impacted by approximately $130 million due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton and approximately $90 million due to Disney Cruise Line pre-launch costs.
• FY25 Guidance: Expect high-single digit adjusted EPS growth compared to fiscal 2024 vs. estimated growth of 4.14% Y/Y. Approximately $15 billion in cash provided by operations and $8 billion of capital expenditures. Target dividend growth that tracks its earnings growth and $3 billion in stock repurchases. Expect double digit percentage entertainment segment operating income growth compared to fiscal 2024, weighted to the first half of the year. Entertainment DTC operating income increase of approximately $875 million versus fiscal 2024, which includes a comparison to an adverse impact of our India DTC business of approximately $200 million on fiscal 2024 Entertainment DTC results.
• FY26 Guidance: Expect double digit adjusted EPS growth. Double digit growth in cash provided by operations. When comparing to its fiscal 2025 guide, they expect entertainment segment to have double digit percentage operating income growth; 10% operating margin for its Entertainment SVOD DTC businesses (excluding Hulu Live DMVPD service). Sports segment of low single digit percentage operating income growth. Experiences of high single digit percentage operating income growth.
• FY27 Guidance: Expect double digit adjusted EPS growth.
• Comment: Walt Disney reported quarterly earnings that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations and provided optimistic guidance for the next few years. The company anticipates adjusted earnings-per-share growth in the high single digits for fiscal 2025, despite planned capital expenditures of around US$8bn and a US$3bn share buyback program. Double-digit EPS growth is projected for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, driven by investments in theme parks, cruise ships, and streaming services. Its CEO highlighted Disney’s recovery from recent challenges, emphasizing the company’s strong position for future growth. Despite challenges such as lower international theme park attendance and higher production costs at ESPN, Disney’s Entertainment unit doubled its operating income to US$1.1bn, driven by successful summer blockbusters and streaming content. Disney+ gained 4.4mn subscribers outside India, contributing to US$321mn in streaming profits. Disney’s theme parks faced a 6% drop in operating income, affected by competition and attraction-building costs. Meanwhile, ESPN’s integration into Disney+ will bring live sports and new features, including sports betting and potential AI-driven personalization, to enhance consumer engagement. Additionally, the recently completed US$8.5bn merger between Reliance Industries and Walt Disney of their Indian media assets, creating India’s largest entertainment entity. The merged operations are divided into three divisions: entertainment, digital, and sports, each led by its own CEO. The merger, which received antitrust approval in August, consolidates 120 TV channels and two major streaming platforms, positioning the new company to compete with Sony, Netflix, and Amazon in India’s booming media market. These strategic advancements and robust performance across key segments are poised to support Disney’s continued resurgence. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $120. Neutral Outlook.

迪士尼 (DIS)

• 24财年第四季营收：225.7亿美元，同比增幅6.3%，超预期8,000万美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.14美元，超预期0.03美元
• 25财年第一季度指引：预计第一季度 Disney+ 核心用户数将较第四季度略有下降。第一季度内容销售/授权及其他营业收入预计与第四季度大致相同。体育业务的营业收入将较2024财年增长13%（按报告基准计算）。调整印度业务对2024财年体育业务业绩的影响后，营业收入预计将下降约10%。预计体验业务部门的营业收入将较2024财年增长6%至8%，增长主要集中在下半年。第一季度的营业收入将因飓风海伦和米尔顿造成约1.3亿美元的负面影响，并因迪士尼邮轮的预启动成本约为9000万美元。
• 25财年指引：预计调整后每股收益（EPS）将实现比2024财年高的个位数增长，而年同比增长率估计为4.14%。经营活动现金流约为150亿美元，资本支出为80亿美元。目标是股息增长与盈利增长保持一致，并回购30亿美元的股票。预计娱乐业务的运营收入较2024财年实现两位数百分比增长，且主要集中在上半年。娱乐直接面向消费者（DTC）业务的运营收入将增加约8.75亿美元，其中包括与印度DTC业务对2024财年娱乐DTC业绩约2亿美元的不利影响的对比。
• 26财年指引：预计调整后每股收益（EPS）将实现两位数增长，现金提供的运营增长也将达到两位数。在与2025财年的预测相比时，娱乐部门预计将实现两位数的营业收入增长；其娱乐SVOD直连客户（DTC）业务（不包括Hulu Live DMVPD服务）预计将达到10%的营业利润率。体育部门的营业收入增长预计为低个位数百分比。体验部门则预计实现高个位数百分比的营业收入增长。
• 27财年指引：预计调整后每股收益将实现两位数增长。
• 短评：迪士尼公司报告的季度财报超出了华尔街的预期，并为未来几年提供了乐观的前景。尽管计划资本支出约为80亿美元，并推出30亿美元的股票回购计划，公司预计2025财年调整后每股收益将增长高个位数。预计2026和2027财年EPS将实现两位数增长，主要得益于在主题公园、游轮和流媒体服务上的投资。公司首席执行官强调了迪士尼从近期挑战中恢复的情况，并表示公司在未来增长方面具有强劲的基础。尽管面临如国际主题公园客流量下降和ESPN制作成本上升等挑战，迪士尼的娱乐业务单位的营业收入增长了一倍，达到了11亿美元，这主要得益于成功的夏季大片和流媒体内容。Disney+在印度以外地区新增了440万订阅用户，贡献了3.21亿美元的流媒体利润。迪士尼的主题公园营业收入下降了6%，受到了竞争和建造新景点成本的影响。同时，ESPN的整合到Disney+后，将带来直播体育赛事、新功能，包括体育博彩和可能的AI驱动个性化服务，以增强消费者的互动体验。此外，最近完成的80.5亿美元的合并交易，使得Reliance Industries与迪士尼在印度的媒体资产合并，创造了印度最大的娱乐实体。合并后的运营分为三大部门：娱乐、数字和体育，每个部门都由独立的首席执行官领导。此次合并已于8月获得反垄断批准，整合了120个电视频道和两个主要的流媒体平台，旨在使新公司与索尼、奈飞和亚马逊在印度蓬勃发展的媒体市场中展开竞争。这些战略性进展和在关键业务领域的强劲表现将有助于迪士尼继续复苏。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：100至120美元。中性前景。

JD.Com Inc (JD)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $37.1B, +5.1% YoY
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.24, beat estimates by $0.20
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided
• Share buyback: The Company repurchased a total of approximately 31.0 million Class A ordinary shares (equivalent of 15.5 million ADSs) for a total of approximately US$390M during the quarter.
• Comment: JD.com reported quarterly revenue below market expectations, reflecting the impact of China’s economic slowdown on consumer spending. Despite these, it reported a 48% increase in net income driven by supply chain improvements. Factors like the ongoing property sector crisis, economic slowdown, and job insecurity have dampened consumer confidence, leading to intense price competition among e-commerce platforms. The company is striving to boost sales through high-growth areas like livestreamed e-commerce and expanding its international business but remains behind competitors like Alibaba in livestreaming and PDD Holdings in overseas sales. Although the Chinese government has introduced stimulus measures, the lack of significant steps to drive consumer spending continues to weigh on sentiment. JD.com’s total revenue for the third quarter grew 5.1% to 260.4bn yuan (US$37.1bn), slightly below analyst expectations of 261.45bn yuan. The third quarter typically experiences a lull in spending between major shopping events. However, the extended Singles’ Day sales period from October 14 to November 11 saw a 26.6% increase in overall sales, with higher demand for large household appliances, aided by a national trade-in subsidy program. JD.com has actively supported this initiative, rolling out trade-in schemes across over 20 provinces and cities since August. Despite managing to improve its revenue in its retail and logistics segments over the past 9 months, JD.com will continue to be impacted by China’s consumption trend going forward. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $30 to $20. Neutral Outlook.

京东 (JD)

• 24财年第三季营收：371亿美元，同比增幅5.1%
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.24美元，超预期0.20美元
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
• 股票回购：公司在本季度回购了大约3100万股A类普通股（相当于1550万份美国存托凭证），回购总金额约为3.9亿美元。
• 短评：京东报告的季度收入低于市场预期，反映了中国经济放缓对消费支出的影响。尽管如此，公司净收入增长了48%，这主要得益于供应链的改善。中国房地产行业持续危机、经济放缓和就业不稳定等因素抑制了消费者信心，导致电商平台之间的价格竞争激烈。公司正努力通过直播电商等高增长领域和扩展国际业务来促进销售，但在直播领域仍落后于阿里巴巴，在海外销售方面则逊色于拼多多。尽管中国政府已推出刺激措施，但缺乏推动消费支出的实质性举措仍然影响市场情绪。京东第三季度的总收入同比增长5.1%，达到2604亿元人民币（约合371亿美元），略低于分析师预期的2614.5亿元人民币。通常，第三季度是主要购物活动之间的消费淡季。然而，从10月14日到11月11日的“双十一”销售期延长，整体销售增长了26.6%，其中大宗家电产品的需求较高，得益于全国性的以旧换新补贴政策。京东积极支持这一举措，自8月以来已在20多个省市推出以旧换新计划。尽管在过去9个月里，京东在零售和物流领域的收入有所提升，但未来公司仍将受到中国消费趋势的影响。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：30至42美元。中性前景。

Bilibili Inc (BILI)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.04B, +26% YoY, beat estimates by $49.52M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.08, in-line with estimates
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: Bilibili Inc reported its first-ever quarterly profit since going public in the US in 2018. The company achieved an adjusted net profit of 235.9mn yuan (US$33.6mn) in the third quarter, compared to an adjusted net loss of 863.5mn yuan a year ago. This profitability milestone was attributed to improved commercialization efficiency, driven by strong growth in its high-margin mobile games segment, which saw an 84% increase in revenue. Total revenue grew 26% YoY to 7.31bn yuan, supported by record engagement metrics, with monthly active users reaching 348 million and daily active users hitting 107 million. Average daily time spent on the platform also rose to 106 minutes. Bilibili has faced challenges in turning a profit over the years but has recently restructured, focusing on live-streaming and commercializing its video and gaming content. With these changes yielding positive results, we anticipate further profitability for the company as it continues to strengthen its content and commercial capabilities. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $16 to $26. Neutral Outlook.

哔哩哔哩 (BILI)

• 24财年第三季营收：10.4亿美元，同比增幅26.0%，超预期4,952万美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.08美元，符合预期
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：哔哩哔哩报告了自2018年在美国上市以来首次实现季度盈利。公司第三季度调整后净利润为2.359亿元人民币（约合3,360万美元），相比去年同期调整后净亏损为8.635亿元人民币。这一盈利里程碑归因于商业化效率的提升，尤其是其高毛利的移动游戏板块表现强劲，收入增长了84%。总收入同比增长26%，达到73.1亿元人民币，得益于创纪录的用户参与指标，月活跃用户数达3.48亿，日活跃用户数为1.07亿，平台的平均每日使用时长也上升至106分钟。哔哩哔哩多年来面临盈利挑战，但最近进行了结构调整，聚焦直播和视频、游戏内容的商业化。随着这些变化带来积极效果，我们预计公司将在继续加强内容和商业能力的同时，保持进一步的盈利增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：16至26美元。中性前景。

NetEase Inc (NTES)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $3.73B, -3.9% YoY, in-line with estimates
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.66, miss estimates by $0.05
• 3Q24 Dividend: NetEase declares $0.435/ADS quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 2.28%; Payable Dec. 13; to shareholders of record Nov. 29; ex-div Nov. 29.
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: NetEase reported a weaker-than-expected performance as the Chinese gaming giant faced a softening in its core business amid a high comparison base from the previous year. While PC game revenue remained resilient, mobile games, which make up three-quarters of total gaming revenue, underperformed. Last year’s strong debut of the blockbuster title Justice Mobile created a high base that weighed on topline growth. However, PC game performance was supported by the return of popular Blizzard titles to China, with World of Warcraft seeing a 50% increase in daily active players compared to pre-shutdown levels, and Hearthstone achieving over 150% growth. NetEase continues to face strong competition, particularly from Tencent, which recently launched hit titles like Dungeon & Fighter (DnF) Mobile in May and Black Myth: Wukong in August. Looking ahead, NetEase plans to strengthen its game portfolio with the December launches of Where Winds Meet and Marvel Rivals, both of which are anticipated to support future growth. Additionally, the PC version of its signature title Fantasy Westward Journey is expected to be less of a drag on revenue in 2025, following in-game adjustments made earlier this year. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $75 to $95. Neutral Outlook.

网易 (NTES)

• 24财年第三季营收：37.3亿美元，同比跌幅3.9%，符合预期
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.66美元，逊预期0.05美元
• 24财年第三季度股息：网易宣布每股美国存托凭证季度股息为0.435美元，维持与之前一致；远期股息率为2.28%。股息将于12月13日支付，股东登记日为11月29日，除息日为11月29日。
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：网易近期业绩未达预期，主要受去年高基数影响，核心业务增长放缓。尽管PC游戏收入保持稳定，但占总游戏收入四分之三的移动游戏表现不佳。去年热门游戏《正义之手》上线，形成高基数，影响了今年的收入增长。然而，PC游戏表现受到暴雪热门游戏重返中国的支持，《魔兽世界》日活跃玩家数较停服前增长50%，《炉石传说》增长超过150%。网易面临强劲竞争，特别是腾讯近期推出的热门游戏，如5月上线的《地下城与勇士》手游和8月的《黑神话：悟空》。展望未来，网易计划通过12月推出的《风起苍岚》和《漫威对决》等新游戏，丰富游戏组合，支持未来增长。此外，其标志性游戏《梦幻西游》PC版预计在2025年将减少对收入的拖累，得益于今年早些时候的游戏内调整。 24财年第四季度建议交易区间：75至95美元。中性前景。

Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $7.05B, +4.9% YoY, beat estimates by $80M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.32, beat estimates by $0.13
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect net revenue to be approximately $7.15bn, plus or minus $400mn, compared to consensus of $7.24bn. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be approximately $2.29, plus or minus $0.18, compared to consensus of $2.27.
• Comment: Applied Materials reported stronger-than-expected earnings but provided a softer revenue outlook for Q1 2025, citing weaker demand trends in China. The company projects revenue growth of 8% to 12% in its core semiconductor-systems and applied global-services segments, respectively, but anticipates a 28% decline in display revenue due to sales challenges in the Chinese market. Its display and adjacent markets unit reported a 29% drop in revenue, down to $211 million, in line with management’s expectations, as industry investment remained subdued amid ongoing demand softness. With sales from China expected to contribute approximately 30% to the company’s total revenue in Q1 2025, this prolonged weakness is likely to weigh on overall topline performance. Nevertheless, management underscores that Applied Materials is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in AI and energy-efficient computing. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $160 to $200. Neutral Outlook.

应用材料 (AMAT)

• 24财年第四季营收：70.5亿美元，同比增幅4.9%，超预期8,000万美元
• 24财年第四季每股盈利：2.32美元，超预期0.13美元
• 25财年第一季指引：预计净收入约为71.5亿美元，浮动幅度为正负4亿美元，而市场共识为72.4亿美元。Non-GAAP稀释每股收益预计为约2.29美元，浮动幅度为正负0.18美元，而市场共识为2.27美元。
• 短评：应用材料公司报告了强于预期的收益，但对于2025财年第一季度的收入前景给出了较为保守的预期，原因是中国市场需求疲软。公司预计其核心半导体系统和应用全球服务部门的收入将分别增长8%至12%，但预计显示面板业务收入将下降28%，主要受中国市场销售挑战的影响。显示面板及其相关市场部门报告的收入为2.11亿美元，同比下降29%，符合管理层的预期，因为在需求持续疲软的情况下，行业投资保持低迷。预计来自中国的销售将在2025财年第一季度占公司总收入的约30%，这场持续的疲软可能会影响整体收入表现。尽管如此，管理层强调应用材料公司在人工智能和节能计算领域的增长机会中处于有利位置。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：160至200美元。中性前景。