Technical Analysis – 15 May 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Western Digital Corp. (WDC US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 72.5, Target 77.5, Stop 70.0

Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 95.5, Target 101.5, Stop 92.5

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Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd. (STE SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 4.16, Target 4.38, Stop 4.05

Singapore Post Ltd. (SPOST SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Oct 2023 with a surge in volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 0.480, Target 0.510, Stop 0.465

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Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd (991 HK)

• Shares closed at an 11-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.66, Target 1.80, Stop 1.59

China Oilfield Services Ltd (2883 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
• Long – Entry 8.66, Target 9.34, Stop 8.32

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $30.73B, +7% YoY, beat estimates by $310M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.40, misses estimates by $0.02
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance was provided.
• Comment: Alibaba Group delivered fourth-quarter growth in revenue, attributable to a 4% revenue increase in its domestic commerce sector, double-digit order volume growth, and a 45% revenue rise in its international digital commerce arm. However, it reported an 86% drop in fourth-quarter profit due to changes in equity investment valuations, despite revenue exceeding expectations. The company plans to upgrade its Hong Kong listing to a primary one while maintaining its New York listing, aiming to complete this by August. Amid a cautious consumer spending environment in China, Alibaba’s focus on low-cost goods led to a 7% revenue growth in the fourth quarter. Net income fell to 3.27bn yuan from 23.52bn yuan the previous year. The cloud division also experienced growth in AI-related revenue from external customers and grew at triple digits YoY. With Chinese consumers spending more cautiously, Alibaba’s shifted focus toward its low-cost goods will continue to show results in its top lines in the current quarter. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $75 to $90. Positive Outlook.

阿里巴巴 (BABA)

• 24财年第四季营收：307.3亿美元，同比增幅7.0%，超预期3.1亿美元
• 24财年第四季每股盈利：1.4美元，逊预期0.02美元
• 25财年指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：阿里巴巴集团第四季度收入实现增长，原因是其国内商务部门收入增长4%，订单量增长两位数，国际数字商务部门收入增长45%。然而，尽管收入超出预期，但由于股票投资估值的变化，该公司第四季度利润下降了86%。该公司计划将在香港上市的公司升级为主要上市公司，同时保留在纽约上市的公司，目标是在8月前完成。在中国消费者支出谨慎的环境下，阿里巴巴对低成本商品的关注使其第四季度收入增长了7%。净利润从上年的235.2亿元降至32.7亿元。云计算部门也经历了来自外部客户的人工智能相关收入的增长，同比增长了三位数。随着中国消费者的消费变得更加谨慎，阿里巴巴将重心转向低成本商品的做法将继续在本季度的营收中有所体现。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：75美至90美元。积极前景。

Home Depot Inc (HD)

• 1Q24 Revenue: $36.4B, -2.4%YoY, miss estimates by $250M
• 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $3.63, beat estimates by $0.04
• FY24 Guidance: Reaffirm FY2024 guidance. Expect total sales growth of approximately 1.0%, including the 53^rd week, vs an estimated growth of 1.04% YoY (53^rd week is projected to add approximately $2.3bn to total sales); Comparable sales to decline approximately 1.0% for the 52 weeks; Expect approximately 12 new stores; Expect gross margin of approximately 33.9%, operating margin of approximately 14.1%; Expect 53-week diluted EPS growth of approximately 1.0% vs. estimated growth of 1.15% YoY.
• Comment: Home Depot reported mixed results, with comparable sales falling 2.8% for the quarter and customer transactions down 1.0% to $386.8mn. Management attributed these declines to a delayed start to spring and ongoing weakness in larger discretionary projects. The current high-interest rate environment is causing consumers to delay or postpone big-ticket purchases, which may impact near-term sales. Despite these challenges, Home Depot remains focused on its professional builder and contractor business. The company also announced the acquisition of SRS Distribution, a materials provider for professionals, in a deal valued at approximately $18.25bn, including debt. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $320 to $370. Neutral Outlook.

家得宝 (HD)

• 24财年第一季营收：364.0亿美元，同比跌幅2.4%，逊预期2.5亿美元
• 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：3.63美元，超预期0.04美元
• 24财年指引：重申2024财年指引。预计总销售额增长约1.0%（包括第53周），预计同比增长1.04%（第53周预计总销售额增加约23亿美元）；可比销售额在52周内下降约1.0%；预计约12家新店；预计毛利率约为33.9%，营业利润率约为14.1%；预计53周摊薄后每股收益增长约1.0%，预计同比增长1.15%。
• 短评：家得宝公布了喜忧参半的业绩，该季度可比销售额下降2.8%，客户交易额下降1.0%，至3.868亿美元。管理层将这些下降归因于春季推迟开始，以及大型可自由支配项目的持续疲软。目前的高利率环境正导致消费者推迟或推迟大件商品的购买，这可能会影响近期的销售。尽管面临这些挑战，家得宝仍然专注于其专业建筑和承包商业务。该公司还宣布收购专业人士材料供应商SRS Distribution，交易价值约182.5亿美元（包括债务）。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：320美至370美元。中性前景。

Sea Ltd (SE)

• 1Q24 Revenue: $3.73B, +22.7%YoY, beat estimates by $110M
• 1Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.04, miss estimates by $0.07
• FY24 Guidance: Expect 2024 to be profitable; expect Shopee’s full-year GMV growth to be in the high teens range and its adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in the second half of this year; Expect Garena’s Free Fire to grow double-digits YoY for both user base and bookings in 2024.
• Comment: Sea Ltd. reported mixed results but emphasized a clear path to profitable growth and remains on track to meet its FY24 guidance. Revenue exceeded expectations, driven by a 33% year-over-year increase in e-commerce unit Shopee, which benefited from Chinese New Year sales and early Ramadan, boosting sales volume. Gross merchandise value on the platform rose 36% year-over-year to $23.6bn. However, e-commerce profitability was impacted by a doubling of sales and marketing costs to $675.9mn. In Sea’s digital entertainment segment, revenue fell by 15.1%, but the popularity of the online multiplayer game Free Fire suggests potential for profitability. While the company displayed strong revenue growth for 1Q24, the company needs to focus on cost reduction going forward to achieve profitability. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $57 to $75. Neutral Outlook.

东海集团 (SE)

• 24财年第一季营收：37.3亿美元，同比增幅22.7%，超预期1.1亿美元
• 24财年第一季GAAP每股亏损：0.04美元，逊预期0.07美元
• 24财年指引：预计2024年将实现盈利；预计Shopee的全年GMV增长将在十几岁左右，调整后的EBITDA将在今年下半年转为正值；预计Garena的Free Fire在2024年的用户基础和预订量都将实现两位数的同比增长。
• 短评：东海集团公布了喜喜参半的业绩，但强调了实现盈利增长的明确途径，并仍有望实现其24财年的指导目标。营收超出预期，原因是电子商务部门Shopee的同比增长33%，得益于春节和斋月的提前销售，推动了销量的增长。该平台的总商品价值同比增长36%，达到236亿美元。然而，电子商务的盈利能力受到销售和营销成本翻倍至6.759亿美元的影响。在数字娱乐领域，公司的收入下降了15.1%，但在线多人游戏《Free Fire》的受欢迎程度表明该公司有盈利潜力。虽然公司在第一季度收入增长强劲，但公司需要专注于降低成本以实现盈利。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：57美至75美元。中性前景。

Nu Holdings Ltd (NU)

• 1Q24 Revenue: $2.7B, +66.7%YoY, beat estimates by $170M
• 1Q24 EPS: $0.09, beat estimates by $0.01
• 2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: Nu Holdings reported results that exceeded expectations, with record-high revenue for the quarter, reflecting a 64% increase from Q1 2023. The company added 5.5mn customers in Q1 2024, bringing the total to 99.3mn globally by the end 1Q24, and surpassed 100mn customers in May 2024. These impressive results demonstrate Nu Holdings’ ability to expand its active customer base while driving revenue growth and profitability. Additionally, the company maintains a substantial excess capital of $2.4bn at the holding level and continues to invest heavily in future products and geographic expansion, as the company sees tremendous potential to continue building the largest consumer platform in Latin America. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $10.5 to $13.5. Positive Outlook.

Nu控股 (NU)

• 24财年第一季营收：27.0亿美元，同比增幅66.7%，超预期1.7亿美元
• 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：0.09美元，超预期0.01美元
• 24财年第二季指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：Nu控股公布的业绩超出预期，本季度收入创历史新高，较2023年第一季度增长64%。该公司在2024年第一季度增加了550万客户，到24年第一季度末，全球客户总数达到9930万，并在2024年5月超过1亿客户。这些令人印象深刻的结果表明，Nu 控股有能力扩大其活跃的客户群，同时推动收入增长和盈利能力。此外，该公司持有24亿美元的大量过剩资本，并将继续大力投资于未来的产品和地域扩张，因为该公司看到了继续打造拉丁美洲最大消费平台的巨大潜力。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：10.5美至13.5美元。积极前景。

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