1Q25 Revenue: $46.0B, +9.7% YoY, beat estimates by $1.86B
1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.91, beat estimates by $0.27
FY25 Guidance: Expect net interest income to be $94.5bn, compared to a previous guidance of $94.0bn
Comment: JPMorgan delivered strong quarterly results, driven by record equities trading and higher fees from debt underwriting and M&A advisory. However, the bank maintained a cautious outlook amid concerns over a potential global recession this year. Elevated market volatility in 1Q25—stemming from shifting economic expectations—boosted trading activity as investors rapidly repositioned their portfolios. Trading revenue rose 21% to $9.7bn, exceeding earlier forecasts for a low double-digit percentage increase. Looking ahead, CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated his concerns about the negative impact of trade tensions, maintaining a cautious stance as corporate America contends with tariffs introduced during President Donald Trump’s administration. Consumers are becoming more restrained in their spending, while companies—particularly in the middle market—are pulling back on investments and deal-making. Dimon warned that both consumers and businesses could face challenges in meeting debt obligations if renewed tariffs fuel inflation and slow economic growth. Reflecting its conservative posture, JPMorgan increased its credit loss provisions to $3.3bn in 1Q25, up from $1.9bn a year earlier—a prudent move amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. 2Q25recommended trading range: $220 to $270. Positive Outlook.
1Q25 Revenue: $5.28B, +11.6% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $11.30, beat estimates by $1.09
FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: BlackRock reported a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025. The firm’s assets under management rose to a record $11.58 trillion, up from $10.47 trillion a year earlier and slightly higher than $11.55 trillion at the end of last year. Net inflows totaled $84.17 billion, helping lift AUM to a new high despite market volatility, though the figure fell short of analyst expectations of $128.6 billion. The quarter also saw $46 billion in outflows from institutional index fund clients and $4 billion in outflows from Asia-Pacific investors—the only region to post negative flows. Net income declined 4% YoY to $1.51bn, primarily due to acquisition-related expenses. Management noted that while recent market volatility has not threatened financial stability, investor sentiment remains cautious. They drew parallels to previous periods of structural shifts in policy and market dynamics, emphasizing BlackRock’s resilience and positioning in navigating uncertain environments. 2Q25recommended trading range: $820 to $1000. Positive Outlook.
1Q25 Revenue: $20.15B, -3.4% YoY, miss estimates by $610M
1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.27, beat estimates by $0.05
FY25 Guidance: Expect net interest income to be ~1% to 3% higher than 2024 net interest income of US$47.7B and noninterest expense to be ~$54.2B, unchanged from prior guidance.
Comment: Wells Fargo beat first-quarter profit expectations with adjusted earnings of US$1.27 per share, driven by lower credit loss provisions and cost-cutting efforts. The bank maintained its 2025 net interest income (NII) guidance, expecting growth at the low end of its 1%–3% range amid weaker loan growth and lower yields. Its CEO warned that escalating U.S. tariffs could slow economic growth, prompting caution from corporate clients and contributing to market volatility. Despite these headwinds, the bank benefited from a 24% rise in investment banking fees and ongoing efficiency improvements, including workforce reductions and tech investments. Regulatory progress also continued, with multiple consent orders resolved as Wells Fargo works to eventually lift its US$1.95tn asset cap stemming from the 2016 fake accounts scandal. Looking ahead, Wells Fargo aims to maintain profitability by focusing on cost management, investment in high-growth areas like investment banking and credit cards and continued regulatory progress. While tariff-driven uncertainty and softer net interest income pose near-term challenges, the bank is positioning itself for long-term resilience through operational streamlining and a strengthened compliance framework. 2Q25recommended trading range: $60 to $65. Positive Outlook.
1Q25 Revenue: $17.74B, +17.5% YoY, beat estimates by $1.19B
1Q25 GAAP EPS: $2.60, beat estimates by $0.41
FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Dividend distribution: Declared $0.925/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous, payable on May 15; for shareholders of record April 30.
Comment: Morgan Stanley exceeded first-quarter profit expectations, reporting earnings of US$2.60 per share and revenue of US$17.74bn, driven by record equity trading, up 45% YoY and robust performance in wealth management. Strength in prime brokerage, derivatives, and Asian markets contributed to equity trading gains. Investment banking revenue rose 8%, supported by higher advisory and fixed income underwriting activity, though equity underwriting declined amid market uncertainty tied to U.S. tariffs and recession fears. Its CEO expressed cautious optimism, noting that while some deals were paused, the transaction pipeline remains strong. The bank also profited from the sale of the X acquisition loan and saw solid revenue growth in institutional securities and wealth management. Looking ahead, short-term volatility and trade tensions may affect deal timing, however Morgan Stanley remains cautiously optimistic that transaction activity will accelerate as economic clarity improves. 2Q25recommended trading range: $102 to $110. Positive Outlook.
