KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 13 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Adobe Inc. (ADBE US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed at higher above the 200dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 520 Target 580, Stop 490

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Docusign, Inc. (DOCU US)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 81.50 Target 91.50, Stop 76.50

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Propnex Ltd (PROP SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, while RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.830, Target 0.880, Stop 0.805

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Frencken Group Ltd (FRKN SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.22 Target 1.36, Stop 1.15

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BAIC Motor Corp Ltd (1958 HK)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 2.28, Target 2.48, Stop 2.18

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Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd (2382 HK) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 3.18, Target 3.50, Stop 3.02

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Shopify Inc (SHOP)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $2.16B, +26.3% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
  • 3Q24 EPS: $0.35, beat estimates by $0.08
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to grow at a mid-to-high twenties percentage rate on a YoY basis vs consensus of 22.7% increase. Gross profit dollars to grow at a YoY rate similar to 3Q24 and GAAP operating expense as a percentage of revenues to be 32% to 33%.
  • Comment: Shopify exceeded third-quarter revenue expectations, reporting a 26% increase to US$2.16bn, beating analysts’ forecast of US$2.11bn and marking its ninth consecutive quarter of sales growth above expectations. It delivered Q3 GMV of US69.72bn, a 24% YoY increase, and free cash flow margin of 19%. The company also projected higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue growth, aiming for a mid-to-high 20% increase, driven by expanded AI-powered tools like its Sidekick assistant, which aids merchants with customer insights and sales tasks. Shopify’s focus on attracting diverse merchants, including brands like Brilliant Earth and Reebok, and new industrial and hardware sectors contributed to its market outperformance. Shopify is well-positioned for further growth and market share gains, especially during the upcoming holiday season. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $100 to $120. Positive Outlook.

Shopify (SHOP)

  • 24财年第三季营收：21.6亿美元，同比增幅26.3%，超预期5,000万美元
  • 24财年第三季每股盈利：0.35美元，超预期0.08美元
  • 24年第四季度指引：预计收入同比增长20%至20%左右，而市场普遍预期为增长22.7%。毛利润美元将以与去年第三季度类似的年率增长，GAAP运营费用占收入的百分比将在32%至33%之间。
  • 短评：Shopify第三季度收入超过预期，增长26%，达到21.6亿美元，超过分析师预测的21.1亿美元，连续第九个季度的销售额增长高于预期。第三季度GMV为697.2亿美元，同比增长24%，自由现金流利润率为19%。该公司还预计，第四季度的收入增长将高于预期，目标是实现20%至20%的中高增长率，这主要得益于其Sidekick助手等人工智能工具的扩展，这些工具可以帮助商家了解客户并完成销售任务。Shopify专注于吸引各种各样的商家，包括Brilliant Earth和Reebok等品牌，以及新的工业和硬件领域，这些都为它的市场表现做出了贡献。Shopify为进一步增长和市场份额的增加做好了准备，尤其是在即将到来的假日季节。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：90至120美元。积极前景。

Home Depot Inc (HD)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $40.2B, +6.6% YoY, beat estimates by $980M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.78, beat estimates by $0.13
  • FY24 Guidance: Raise its expectations for total sales to rise about 4% and comparable sales decline of 2.5% YoY, compared to its previous forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% and a decline of 3% to 4% respectively. Revise its adjusted earnings per share guidance to a 1% decline from the prior forecast of a 1% to 3% drop.
  • Comment: Home Depot posted stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, helped by steady demand from professional contractors and a US$200mn boost from hurricane-related sales, as storms in the southeastern US spurred purchases of emergency supplies and building materials. Its net sales for the quarter rose 6.6% YoY to US$40.2bn, operating income remained flat at US$5.4bn, net earnings declined to US$3.6bn and gross profit rose to $13.4bn. The company reported a smaller-than-expected 1.3% decline in comparable sales and raised its full-year forecast to a 2.5% drop, less than the previously expected 3% to 4% decline. Furthermore, it also raised its FY24 total sales expectations to rise 4% instead of the previously forecasted 2.5% to 3.5%. Despite continued caution around consumer spending, Home Depot’s strategic acquisition of SRS distribution enabled the company to focus on professional customers and repair-focused projects which have helped stabilize its sales amid a challenging economic environment. This acquisition allowed It to gain a new customer base and is on track to add US$6.4bn in incremental sales to Home Depot’s revenue. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $400 to $420. Neutral Outlook.

家得宝 (HD)

  • 24财年第三季营收：402亿美元，同比增幅6.6%，超预期9.8亿美元
  • 24财年第三季每股盈利：3.78美元，超预期0.13美元
  • 24年指引：上调了对总销售额同比增长约4%和可比销售额同比下降2.5%的预期，而此前的预测分别为2.5%至3.5%和下降3%至4%。将调整后的每股收益预期从之前预测的下降1%至3%调整为下降1%。
  • 短评：家得宝公布了强于预期的第三季度业绩，这得益于专业承包商的稳定需求，以及飓风相关销售带来的2亿美元提振。美国东南部的风暴刺激了应急物资和建筑材料的购买。该季度净销售额同比增长6.6%，达到402亿美元，营业收入保持在54亿美元，净利润下降至36亿美元，毛利润上升至134亿美元。该公司公布，同店销售额下降1.3%，低于预期，并将全年预测上调至下降2.5%，低于此前预计的下降3%至4%。此外，该公司还将其24财年总销售额预期上调至4%，而不是此前预测的2.5%至3.5%。尽管对消费者支出仍持谨慎态度，但家得宝对SRS分销的战略收购使公司能够专注于专业客户和以维修为重点的项目，这有助于在充满挑战的经济环境中稳定其销售。这次收购使它获得了一个新的客户群，并有望为家得宝的收入增加64亿美元的增量销售额。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：400至420美元。中性前景。

Sea Ltd (SE)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $4.3B, +30.8% YoY, beat estimates by $220M
  • 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.24, miss estimates by $0.02
  • FY24 Guidance: Maintain e-commerce mid-20s GMV growth guidance.
  • Comment: Sea Ltd exceeded third-quarter revenue expectations, with total revenue rising 30.8% to US$4.33bn, driven largely by its e-commerce arm Shopee, which turned profitable in Southeast Asia and Brazil alongside the growth of its digital financial services business. Shopee’s e-commerce revenue surged 42.6% to US$3.2bn, gross orders grew 24% and GMV rose 25% YoY, reflecting strong consumer spending ahead of the holiday season. The digital finance segment, SeaMoney, also outperformed with 38% revenue growth, credit lending demand remained high and continues to be the business segment’s key growth driver. For Q3, its loan book grew 70% YoY, with 4 million first-time borrowers and active users reached about 24 million despite these its NPL 90-day ratio remained stable at 1.2%. As at the end of the third quarter, its average loan outstanding per user was less than US$200 with a tenure period of just a few months. Digital entertainment bookings grew 24% YoY to US$557mn, driven by the strength of its Free Fire mobile game, which consistently had over 100mn daily active users, representing a 25% YoY growth. Its CEO remains optimistic about Shopee’s profitability as the company continues to focus on growth, despite competition from regional and global players. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $95 to $120. Positive Outlook.

东海集团 (SE)

  • 24财年第三季营收：43.0亿美元，同比增幅30.8%，超预期2.2美元
  • 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.24美元，逊预期0.02美元
  • 24年指引：维持电子商务商品交易总额约25%增长指引。
  • 短评：东海集团第三季度收入超出预期，总收入增长30.8%，达到43.3亿美元，这主要得益于其电子商务部门Shopee， Shopee在东南亚和巴西实现盈利，同时其数字金融服务业务也在增长。Shopee的电子商务收入飙升42.6%，达到32亿美元，总订单增长24%，商品交易总额同比增长25%，反映了假日季节前强劲的消费者支出。数字金融部门SeaMoney也以38%的收入增长表现出色，信贷需求仍然很高，继续成为该业务部门的主要增长动力。第三季度，其贷款同比增长70%，首次借款人400万，活跃用户约2400万，但其90天不良贷款率仍稳定在1.2%。截至第三季度末，每个用户的平均贷款余额不到200美元，贷款期限只有几个月。数字娱乐预订量同比增长24%，达到5.57亿美元，这得益于其Free Fire手机游戏的强劲增长，该游戏的日活跃用户一直超过1亿，同比增长25%。该公司首席执行官对Shopee的盈利能力仍持乐观态度，尽管面临来自地区和全球竞争对手的竞争，但该公司仍将继续专注于增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：95至120美元。积极前景。

On Holding AG (ONON)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: CHF635.8M, +32.3% YoY
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: CHF0.15
  • FY24 Guidance: Raise full-year net sales growth target from at least 30% to 32% amounting to approximately CHF2.29B. Plans to maintain gross profit margin above 60% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% over next two years.
  • Comment: On Holdings AG reported a record third quarter, with net sales up 33% YoY to CHF 636mn, driven by strong brand expansion and targeted marketing. Brand awareness doubled in the US and tripled in Paris, supported by Olympic visibility and celebrity endorsements. The APAC region led growth, with China sales up 85%, while Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) sales surged nearly 50%. The company raised its full-year sales growth forecast to 32%, projecting at least CHF 2.29bn in revenue. This quarter, it achieved a gross profit margin of 60.6% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.9%. Additionally, On Holdings sold over 1 million pairs of shoes in a single week for the first time. Despite a slight slowdown in wholesale growth and a CHF 37.2mn FX loss, On Holdings remains optimistic, with a focus on D2C growth, product innovation, and long-term profitability. With plans to expand flagship stores globally and capitalize on holiday demand, the company anticipate continued sales growth and a broader international footprint. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $55. Positive Outlook.

昂跑 (ONON)

  • 24财年第三季营收：6.358亿瑞士法郎，同比增幅32.3%
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.15瑞士法郎
  • 24年指引：将全年净销售增长目标从至少30%提高到32%，达到约22.9亿瑞士法郎。计划在未来两年将毛利率维持在60%以上，调整后的EBITDA利润率维持在18%以上
  • 短评：在强劲的品牌扩张和目标营销的推动下，昂跑第三季度净销售额同比增长33%，达到6.36亿瑞士法郎，创下历史新高。在奥运会知名度和名人代言的支持下，品牌知名度在美国翻了一番，在巴黎翻了两番。亚太地区的销售额增长最快，其中中国的销售额增长了85%，而直接面向消费者（D2C）的销售额增长了近50%。该公司将全年销售增长预期上调至32%，预计收入至少为22.9亿瑞士法郎。本季度，该公司的毛利率为60.6%，调整后的EBITDA利润率为18.9%。此外，昂跑还首次在一周内售出了100多万双鞋。尽管批发增长略有放缓，外汇损失3,720万瑞士法郎，但昂跑仍持乐观态度，重点关注D2C增长、产品创新和长期盈利能力。该公司计划在全球范围内扩大旗舰店，并利用假日需求，预计销售额将持续增长，并扩大国际业务。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：50至55美元。积极前景。

SoundHound AI Inc (SOUN)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $25.09M, +88.6% YoY, beat estimates by $2.06M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.04, beat estimates by $0.03
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue to range between $82M to $85M vs consensus of $82.6M
  • FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to range between $155M to $175M vs consensus of $152.1M.
  • Comment: In the third quarter, SoundHound AI reported an 89% YoY revenue increase, reaching US$25.1mn, surpassing analyst expectations of US$23.02mn, with a reduced net loss of -US$0.04 per share, beating projections of -US$0.07. Non-GAAP gross margins improved to 60%, signalling stronger profitability. This growth reflects SoundHound’s successful expansion into new verticals like restaurants, financial services, healthcare, and insurance, reducing reliance on the automotive sector from 90% to a more diversified mix. Its largest customer now contributes only 12% of revenue, down from 72% last year. The company’s voice AI solutions are widely adopted in various sectors, with applications in drive-thru, phone ordering, kiosks, and mobile apps in seven of the top 20 quick-service restaurants (QSRs). These solutions enhance customer interactions and streamline operations, with its CEO citing increased order efficiencies and upselling capabilities. SoundHound also raised its 2024 revenue forecast to US$82mn to US$85mn and projected 2025 revenue of US$155mn to US$175mn, above consensus estimates. The CEO emphasized SoundHound’s position as a leader in voice AI, describing voice as the “killer app” for applied AI, as the company continues to solidify its industry position and capitalize on emerging opportunities in conversational AI. As Soundhound continues to capture opportunities across new business sectors and expand its reach in current sectors, we anticipate long-term growth potential for the company. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $6 to $10. Positive Outlook.

SoundHound AI (SOUN)

  • 24财年第三季营收：2,509万美元，同比增幅88.6%，超预期206万美元
  • 24财年第三季每股亏损：0.04美元，超预期0.03美元
  • 24年指引：预计营收将在8,200万美元至8,500万美元之间，而市场预期为8,260万美元。
  • 25年指引：预计营收将在1.55亿美元至1.75亿美元之间，而市场预期为1.521亿美元。
  • 短评：第三季度，SoundHound AI收入同比增长89%，达到2510万美元，超过分析师预期的2302万美元，每股净亏损减少- 0.04美元，超过预期的- 0.07美元。非公认会计准则毛利率提高至60%，表明盈利能力增强。这一增长反映了SoundHound成功扩展到餐饮、金融服务、医疗保健和保险等新的垂直领域，将对汽车行业的依赖从90%降低到更多元化的组合。它最大的客户现在只贡献了12%的收入，低于去年的72%。该公司的语音人工智能解决方案被广泛应用于各个领域，在排名前20的快餐店（QSR）中，有7家在汽车通道、电话点餐、售货亭和移动应用程序中得到了应用。这些解决方案增强了客户互动并简化了操作，其首席执行官表示，这些解决方案提高了订单效率和追加销售能力。SoundHound还将其2024年的收入预测上调至8,200万至8,500万美元，预计2025年的收入为1.55亿至1.75亿美元，高于市场普遍预期。公司CEO强调了SoundHound在语音人工智能领域的领导地位，称语音是应用人工智能的“杀手级应用”，该公司将继续巩固其行业地位，并利用对话人工智能领域的新机遇。随着Soundhound不断抓住新业务领域的机会，并扩大其在现有领域的影响力，我们预计公司将有长期增长潜力。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：6.0至10美元。积极前景。

MARA Holdings Inc (MARA)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $131.65M, +34.5% YoY, miss estimates by $12.7M
  • 3Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.42, miss estimates by $0.07
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided
  • Comment: MARA Holdings posted another disappointing quarter, marking the fourth consecutive period of missing EPS estimates. Nonetheless, the company mined 2,070 bitcoins over the quarter, bringing its total holdings to 20,266 BTC at an average mining cost of $42,805 per bitcoin. During this period, MARA achieved a record-high energized hash rate of 36.9 Exahash, deploying an additional 18,000 miners. Bitcoin prices have also surged recently, reaching a historic high of above $90,000. Furthermore, pro-crypto president-elect Donald Trump has pledged to integrate digital assets into the U.S. economy and has announced plans to establish a national bitcoin reserve, which has boosted cryptocurrency valuations. Investors are hopeful that cryptocurrency regulations will become more favorable under Trump’s administration. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $20 to $29. Positive Outlook.

MARA控股 (MARA)

  • 24财年第三季营收：1.3165亿美元，同比增幅34.5%，逊预期1,270万美元
  • 24财年第三季每股亏损：0.42美元，逊预期0.07美元
  • 24年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：MARA控股公布了另一个令人失望的季度，标志着连续第四个季度每股收益低于预期。尽管如此，该公司在本季度开采了2,070枚比特币，使其总持有量达到20,266枚比特币，平均每枚比特币的开采成本为42,805美元。在此期间，MARA实现了创纪录的36.9 Exahash的激活哈希率，部署了额外的18,000名矿工。比特币价格最近也在飙升，达到了超9万美元的历史高点。此外，支持加密的候任总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺将数字资产融入美国经济，并宣布了建立国家比特币储备的计划，这提高了加密货币的估值。投资者希望，在特朗普政府的领导下，加密货币监管将变得更加有利。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：20至29美元。积极前景。

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: €3.99B, +16.4% YoY, miss estimates by €30M
  • 3Q24 GAAP EPS: €1.45, miss estimates by €0.23
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 revenue to be €4.10bn; gross margin is expected to be around 31.8%; Operating income is expected to be approx. €481.0mn, compared to consensus of around €445.7mn; Total MAUs are expected to be approx. 655mn; total premium subscribers are expected to be approx. 260mn, slightly ahead of consensus.
  • Comment: Spotify Technology reported higher-than-expected subscriber growth in 3Q24 and projected stronger-than-anticipated profitability for 4Q24, supported by cost reductions and robust subscriber momentum heading into the holiday season. Monthly active users rose 11% YoY to 640mn, while premium subscriptions reached 252mn, slightly surpassing the 251.1mn forecasted. Although revenue fell slightly below estimates, operating income surged to €454mn, up from €32mn a year earlier, beating expectations. To bolster profitability, Spotify has implemented workforce reductions, scaled back on podcasts, and reduced marketing expenses over the past year. The company also increased U.S. plan prices to capitalize on demand for its premium offerings. Looking ahead, Spotify remains on track to achieve full-year profitability in FY24. Additionally, the company has introduced more premium features to enhance user appeal, including an AI-powered playlist creation tool, which was expanded to four new markets, including the U.S., in September. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $430 to $500. Positive Outlook.

Spotify (SPOT)

  • 24财年第三季营收：39.9亿欧元，同比增幅16.4%，逊预期3,000万美元
  • 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.45美元，逊预期0.23美元
  • 24年第四季度指引：预计第四季度营收将达到41亿欧元；毛利率预计在31.8%左右；营业收入预计约为4.81亿欧元，而市场预期约为4.457亿欧元；总每月活跃用户数预计约为6.55亿；付费用户总数预计约为2.6亿，略高于市场预期。
  • 短评：在成本削减和假日季强劲的用户增长势头的支持下，Spotify公布了高于预期的第三季度用户增长，并预计第四季度的盈利能力将强于预期。月活跃用户同比增长11%，达到6.4亿，而付费用户达到2.52亿，略高于预期的2.511亿。尽管营收略低于预期，但营业收入从上年同期3,200万欧元飙升至4.54亿欧元，超出预期。为了提高盈利能力，Spotify在过去一年里实施了裁员，缩减了播客的规模，并减少了营销支出。该公司还提高了美国计划的价格，以利用对其优质产品的需求。展望未来，Spotify仍有望在24财年实现全年盈利。此外，为了提高用户的吸引力，还推出了人工智能播放列表创建工具，并于9月扩展到美国等4个新市场。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：430至500美元。积极前景。