Technical Analysis – 12 December 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Arm Holdings plc (ARM US)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 140 Target 154, Stop 133
  

Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive while MACD is about to turn positive.
  
• Long – Entry 77 Target 83 Stop 74
  

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Thai Beverage PCL (THBEV SP)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.570, Target 0.600, Stop 0.555
  

Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd (YZJFH SP)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.40 Target 0.42, Stop 0.39
  

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TCL Electronics Holdings Ltd (1070 HK)

• Shares closed at a 1-month high above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 5.50, Target 6.00, Stop 5.25
  

China Telecom Corp Ltd (728 HK)

• Shares closed at a 1-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 4.68, Target 5.00, Stop 4.52
  

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Macy’s Inc (M)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $4.74B, -2.5% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.04, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• FY24 Guidance: Lowered its adjusted earnings per share to $2.25 to $2.50, lower than its previous outlook of $2.34 to $2.69. Slightly raised its full-year sales forecast, while still projecting a decline from the prior year, net sales will be between $22.3B to $22.5B compared with the range of $22.1B to $22.4B that it previously anticipated, a YoY drop from the $23.09B it reported for FY23. For comparable sales, Macy’s expects a decline of roughly 1% to about flat YoY, an improvement from the previous range of a decrease of about 2% to a drop of about 0.5%.
  
• Comment: Macy’s revealed that an employee intentionally hid $151 million in delivery expenses over three years to mask an earlier accounting error. The employee has been dismissed, and Macy’s is enhancing financial controls. The incident led to a delay in earnings reporting, with Q3 revenue declined 2.5% YoY to US$4.74bn, with earnings of US$0.04 per share slightly exceeding expectations. The company plans to close 150 namesake stores by 2027, focusing investments on 50 remaining locations, which saw a 1.9% comparable sales increase. Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury remain growth drivers, with sales rising 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively. Macy’s adjusted its 2024 guidance, citing weaker consumer spending and macroeconomic pressures. Looking ahead, Macy’s faces challenges in stabilizing its core operations amid declining sales, but its strategic investments in high-performing locations and expansion into successful segments like Bluemercury show promise for future growth. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $15 to $18. Neutral Outlook.
  

梅西百货 (M)

• 24财年第三季营收：47.4亿美元，同比跌幅2.5%，超预期2,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.04美元，超预期0.01美元。
  
• 24财年指引：将调整后每股收益下调至2.25至2.50美元，低于此前2.34至2.69美元的预期。略微上调了全年销售预测，但仍预计将较上年有所下降，净销售额将在223亿美元至225亿美元之间，而此前预计的范围为221亿美元至224亿美元，同比下降，低于23财年报告的230.9亿美元。梅西百货预计，同店销售额将同比下降约1%，至与上年同期持平，较此前2%至0.5%左右的降幅区间有所改善。
  
• 短评：梅西百货透露，一名员工在三年内故意隐瞒了1.51亿美元的送货费用，以掩盖此前的一个会计错误。该员工已被解雇，梅西百货正在加强财务控制。该事件导致收益报告延迟，第三季度收入同比下降2.5%，至47.4亿美元，每股收益0.04美元略高于预期。该公司计划到2027年关闭150家同名门店，将投资重点放在剩余的50家门店，这些门店的可比销售额增长了1.9%。Bloomingdale ‘s和Bluemercury仍然是增长的动力，销售额分别增长3.2%和3.3%。梅西百货调整了2024年的预期，理由是消费者支出疲软和宏观经济压力。展望未来，梅西百货面临着在销售额下降的情况下稳定其核心业务的挑战，但其在高绩效地区的战略投资以及向bluemercurry等成功领域的扩张显示出未来增长的希望。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：15至18美元。中性前景。
  

Adobe Inc (ADBE)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $5.61B, +11.1% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.81, beat estimates by $0.14
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect EPS of $4.95-$5.00 versus the analyst consensus of $4.94 and revenue of $5.63B-$5.68B versus the analyst consensus of $5.72B.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect EPS of $20.20-$20.50 versus the analyst consensus of $20.53 and revenue of $23.30B-$23.55B versus the analyst consensus of $23.80B.
  
• Comment: In the fourth quarter, Adobe Inc’s revenue grew 11% to US$5.61bn, beating expectations, with adjusted earnings of US$4.81 per share surpassing estimates. The digital media unit reported US$17.3bn in annual recurring revenue, with quarterly sales up 12%, driven by AI adoption. However, Adobe forecasted a disappointing fiscal 2025 revenue of US$23.30bn – US$23.55bn, below analysts’ US$23.78bn estimate, reflecting delays in AI monetization and competition from startups like OpenAI. While Adobe is integrating AI capabilities like Firefly and introducing new subscription tiers, the full impact of these initiatives may not be fully realized in the near term. Investor sentiment remains cautious, and we anticipate a more gradual path to AI-driven growth. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $485 to $540. Neutral Outlook.
  

奥多比 (ADBE)

• 24财年第四季营收：56.1亿美元，同比增幅11.1%，超预期7,000万美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.81美元，超预期0.14美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计每股收益为4.95至5.00美元，分析师预期为4.94美元；营收为56.3亿至56.8亿美元，分析师预期为57.2亿美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计每股收益为20.20至20.50美元，分析师预期为20.53美元；营收为233.3亿至235.5亿美元，分析师预期为230.8亿美元。
  
• 短评：第四季度，奥多比公司的收入增长了11%，达到56.1亿美元，超出预期，调整后每股收益为4.81美元，超出预期。在人工智能应用的推动下，数字媒体部门的年度经常性收入为173亿美元，季度销售额增长了12%。然而，奥多比预测2025财年收入为233.3亿至235.5亿美元，低于分析师的237.8亿美元预期，这反映了人工智能货币化的延迟以及来自OpenAI等初创公司的竞争。虽然奥多比正在整合像Firefly这样的人工智能功能，并引入新的订阅层，但这些举措的全部影响可能不会在短期内完全实现。投资者情绪仍然谨慎，我们预计人工智能驱动的增长将更加缓慢。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：485至540美元。中性前景。