Technical Analysis – 11 March 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Nextera Energy Inc (NEE US)

Shares closed at a one month high above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 57, Target 61, Stop 55

Duke Energy Corp (DUK US)

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Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed both the 200dEMA and 50dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 94.7, Target 99.5, Stop 92.3

Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)

Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume volume.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 1.72, Target 1.82, Stop 1.67

DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd. (DFI SP)

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Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 2.12, Target 2.30, Stop 2.03

Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co Ltd (3606 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 40.5, Target 42.5, Stop 39.5

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Flat Glass Group Co Ltd (6865 HK)

Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA met the 200dEMA.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 17.62, Target 19.42, Stop 16.72

Kroger Co (KR)

4Q23 Revenue: $37.1B, +6.5% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.34, beat estimates by $0.21
FY24 Guidance: Expect identical sales growth without fuel of 0.25% to 1.75%, adjusted FIFO operating profit of $4.6mn to $4.8mn and adjusted net earnings per diluted share of $4.30 to $4.50 vs $4.56 consensus.
Comment: Kroger exceeded quarterly estimates and provided robust forward guidance. The grocery store chain reported strong fourth-quarter results, with total company sales growing by 6.4% YoY to US$37.06bn, including revenue from an extra week in the quarter. Despite a decline of 0.8% in identical sales without fuel, net earnings reached $1.34 per share, or $1.14 per share excluding the extra week’s benefit. Its CEO expressed satisfaction with the company’s performance, citing efforts to lower prices and enhance the seamless shopping experience amidst macroeconomic pressures. Kroger’s value creation model focuses on delivering an exceptional customer experience and investing in its associates, which generates sustainable returns for shareholders. The company plans to continue investing in technology, store expansion, and enhancing the omnichannel experience. Despite facing challenges such as reduced government benefits and higher interest rates, Kroger remains optimistic about its future growth prospects. Additionally, Kroger provided an update on its proposed merger with Albertsons, expressing commitment to defending the merger despite legal challenges. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $65. Positive Outlook.

克罗格(KR)

23财年第四季营收：371亿美元，同比增加6.5%，超预期4,000万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.34美元，超预期0.21美元
24财年指引：预计不含燃料的相同销售额增长为0.25%至1.75%，调整后的FIFO营业利润为460万至480万美元，调整后的摊薄每股净收益为4.30至4.50美元，而市场预期为4.56美元。
短评：克罗格超出了季度预期，并提供了强劲的前瞻性指引。这家连锁杂货店公布了强劲的第四季度业绩，公司总销售额同比增长6.4%，达到370.6亿美元，其中包括本季度额外一周的收入。尽管不含燃料的销售额下降了0.8%，但净利润达到每股1.34美元，如果不考虑额外一周的收益，每股收益为1.14美元。其首席执行官对公司的业绩表示满意，称在宏观经济压力下努力降低价格，提高无缝购物体验。克罗格的价值创造模式专注于提供卓越的客户体验和投资于其合作伙伴，从而为股东带来可持续的回报。该公司计划继续投资于技术、门店扩张和增强全渠道体验。尽管面临着政府福利减少和利率上升等挑战，但克罗格对未来的增长前景仍持乐观态度。此外，克罗格还提供了与Albertsons拟议合并的最新情况，表示尽管面临法律挑战，仍将致力于捍卫合并。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：50美至65美元。积极前景。

Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

1Q24 Revenue: $11.96B, +34.1% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $10.99, beat estimates by $0.57
FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be approximately $50.0B vs consensus of $50.01B, including contribution from VMware, an increase of 40% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately 60% of projected revenue.
Share buyback: Repurchased and eliminated 7.7mn shares for $8,290mn
Comment: Broadcom reported a quadrupling of revenue from AI to $2.3 billion in the fiscal first quarter, offsetting slowdowns in other sectors, and its infrastructure software segment also experienced substantial growth, contributing to its overall positive performance for the quarter. The company also announced an expected US$10bn revenue from AI-related chips in 2024, but its full-year forecast fell short of investor expectations. The company plays a pivotal role in the AI chip market, providing networking chips and aiding clients in designing custom AI chips. Broadcom’s CEO highlighted the profitability of the custom chip business, particularly with two major clients speculated to be Google and Meta Platforms, capable of commanding margins similar to the company’s corporate gross margin. Despite maintaining its annual revenue forecast at US$50bn, investors and analysts expected a slight upward revision. The surge in Broadcom’s stock in 2024, driven by AI optimism, has raised growth expectations, although analysts caution about potential growth fluctuations for companies less directly tied to the AI trend. We expect the sustained momentum in the AI trend to bolster Broadcom’s revenue and stock value further. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $1,300 to $1,500. Positive Outlook.

博通(AVGO)

24财年第一季营收：119.6亿美元，同比增加34.1%，超预期2.4亿美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：10.99美元，超预期0.57美元
24财年指引：预计收入约为500亿美元，而市场预期为501亿美元，其中包括VMware的贡献，同比增长40%。调整后的EBITDA指引约为预计收入的60%。
股票回购：以82.9亿美元回购并注销了770万股股票。
短评：博通报告称，在第一财季，人工智能的收入增长了四倍，达到23亿美元，抵消了其他行业的放缓，其基础设施软件部门也经历了大幅增长，为该季度的整体积极表现做出了贡献。该公司还宣布，预计2024年人工智能相关芯片的收入将达到100亿美元，但其全年预测低于投资者的预期。该公司在人工智能芯片市场上发挥着关键作用，提供网络芯片，并帮助客户设计定制人工智能芯片。博通首席执行官强调了定制芯片业务的盈利能力，特别是据推测谷歌和Meta平台这两个主要客户能够获得与公司毛利率相似的利润率。尽管其年度营收预期维持在500亿美元，但投资者和分析师预计会小幅上调。在人工智能乐观情绪的推动下，博通股价在2024年飙升，提高了增长预期，尽管分析师对与人工智能趋势不太直接相关的公司的潜在增长波动提出了警告。我们预计人工智能趋势的持续势头将进一步提振博通的收入和股票价值。24财年第二季度建议交易区间1300美至1500美元。积极前景。

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)

2Q24 Revenue: $58.44B, +5.7% YoY, miss estimates by $690M
2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.71, beat estimates by $0.07
3Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: Costco Wholesale’s quarterly sales fell short of expectations due to subdued consumer spending on high-margin items like home furnishings and sporting goods amid rising day-to-day expenses. However, strong demand for consumables and groceries led to a 5.8% increase in comparable sales, excluding fuel and currency impacts. Despite total sales reaching US$58.44bn, below estimates of US$59.16bn, Costco’s e-commerce sales surged 18.4%, driven by robust demand for precious metals such as gold and silver, considered safe-haven investments amid inflation concerns. The company’s profit of US$3.92 per share surpassed estimates of US$3.62, aided by lower freight and commodity costs. Membership fee income rose by 8.2%, with membership reaching 73.4mn paid household members. Costco highlighted updates on new warehouse openings, e-commerce strategies, inflation management, and shipping challenges. February sales increased by 6.9% YoY, with strong performance across various merchandising categories and regions. Additionally, Costco announced the impending retirement of its CFO and the smooth transition to a new leadership team. Anticipating a potential decrease in interest rates, we foresee a likely uptick in sales. However, with the future change in leadership, there is uncertainty regarding the performance of the company in the upcoming quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $750 to $800. Neutral Outlook.

好市多(COST)

24财年第二季营收：584.4亿美元，同比增加5.7%，逊预期6.9亿美元
24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.71美元，超预期0.07美元
24财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
短评：公司的季度销售额低于预期，原因是随着日常开支的增加，消费者对家居用品和体育用品等高利润率商品的支出减少。然而，耗材和杂货的强劲需求导致可比销售额增长5.8%，不包括燃料和货币影响。尽管总销售额达到584.4亿美元，低于591.6亿美元的预期，但由于对黄金和白银等贵金属的强劲需求，好市多的电子商务销售额飙升了18.4%，这些贵金属被认为是通胀担忧下的避险投资。得益于运费和大宗商品成本的降低，该公司的每股利润为3.92美元，超过了3.62美元的预期。会员费收入增长8.2%，会员达到7340万付费家庭成员。公司着重介绍了新仓库开业、电子商务战略、通货膨胀管理和航运挑战的最新情况。2月份销售额同比增长6.9%，各商品类别和地区的销售表现强劲。此外，好市多还宣布其首席财务官即将退休，并将顺利过渡到新的领导团队。预计利率可能会下降，我们预计销售可能会上升。然而，随着未来领导层的变化，公司在下一季度的表现存在不确定性。24财年第三季度建议交易区间750美至800美元。中性前景。

Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)

4Q24 Revenue: $1.43B, +0.7% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.46, in-line with estimates
1Q25 Guidance: Expect net revenue to be between $1.15B +/-5%, vs consensus of $1.37B, GAAP gross margin is expected to be 44.5% to 47.2%, and Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 62% to 63%. GAAP diluted loss per share is expected to be $(0.23) +/- $0.05 per share and Non-GAAP diluted income per share is expected to be $0.23 +/- $0.05 per share, vs. consensus of $0.40.
Share buyback: Announced a $3B stock buyback authorisation.
Comment: Marvell Technology delivered strong fourth quarter results with a strong second half performance from its data centre end market. Its data centre revenue in the second half grew by approximately 50% from the previous half, driven by AI applications. The company’s first-quarter forecast fell below market expectations due to soft demand in wireless infrastructure, consumer, and enterprise markets. The company attributed the weak forecast to inventory corrections by customers, such as cloud service providers and telecom operators, after stockpiling chips during the pandemic. However, Marvell’s data centre artificial intelligence hardware showed promise, with executives expecting sequential revenue growth in the first quarter. Its CEO highlighted the increasing significance of AI in the company’s revenue, indicating a transformational shift. Despite the challenges, Marvell expressed confidence in its business outlook, announcing a US$3bn stock buyback authorization. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $75 to $85. Neutral Outlook.

迈威尔科技(MRVL)

24财年第四季营收：14.3亿美元，同比增加0.7%，超预期1,000万美元
24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.46美元，符合预期
25财年第一季指引：预计净收入将在11.5亿美元+/-5%之间，而市场预期为13.7亿美元，GAAP毛利率预计为44.5%至47.2%，Non-GAAP毛利率预计为62%至63%。GAAP每股摊薄亏每股损预计为0.23美元+/- 0.05美元，Non-GAAP每股摊薄收益预计为0.23美元+/-0.05美元，而市场预期为0.40美元。
股票回购：宣布授权30亿美元的股票回购。
短评：迈威尔科技第四季度业绩强劲，下半年数据中心终端市场表现强劲。在人工智能应用的推动下，该公司下半年的数据中心收入比上半年增长了约50%。由于无线基础设施、消费者和企业市场的需求疲软，该公司第一季度的预测低于市场预期。该公司将疲软的预测归因于云服务提供商和电信运营商等客户在疫情期间储存芯片后进行的库存调整。然而，美满电子的数据中心人工智能硬件显示出了希望，高管们预计第一季度营收将连续增长。该公司首席执行官强调了人工智能在公司收入中日益重要的作用，表明了一种转型转变。尽管面临挑战，公司仍对业务前景充满信心，宣布授权30亿美元的股票回购。25财年第一季度建议交易区间75美至85美元。中性前景。

Bilibili Inc (BILI)

4Q23 Revenue: $894.3M, +3.0% YoY, beat estimates by $15.86M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.19, beat estimates by $0.03
1Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: In the latest quarter, Bilibili’s revenue increased by 3.4% YoY to RMB6.35bn, driven by higher advertising and livestreaming revenue. This growth offset a decline in mobile-game sales. The reported revenue matched the consensus estimate of analysts and showed expansion compared to the previous quarter. In FY23, Bilibili achieved significant milestones across community growth, commercialization efficiency, margin expansion, and loss reduction. With over 100mn daily active users and 336mn monthly active users, the platform emphasized supporting its 3mn content creators while bolstering user engagement to over 95 minutes per day. Commercialization efforts drove a 28% increase in advertising revenue and a 22% growth in value-added services revenue in the fourth quarter, contributing to total revenue reaching RMB22.5bn for the year. Gross profit rose by 33%, with a margin of 26.1% in the fourth quarter, and adjusted net loss narrowed by 58%. Bilibili’s content ecosystem flourished, attracting diverse demographics, and user engagement metrics remained strong, with daily video views increasing by 25% and official membership reaching 230mn. Looking ahead, Bilibili aims to enhance commercialization capabilities, maintain operational efficiency, and achieve profitability milestones, supported by positive operating cash flow and a healthy cash position. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $10.0 to $13.5. Positive Outlook.

哔哩哔哩(BILI)

23财年第四季营收：8.943亿美元，同比增加3.0%，超预期1,586万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.19美元，超预期0.03美元
24财年第一季指引：不提供指引。
短评：在最近一个季度，受广告和直播收入增加的推动，哔哩哔哩的收入同比增长3.4%，达到人民币63.5亿元。这一增长抵消了手机游戏销量的下滑。报告的收入符合分析师的普遍预期，与上一季度相比有所增长。在23财年，公司在社区增长、商业化效率、利润率扩张和亏损减少方面取得了重大进展。该平台拥有超过1亿的日活跃用户和3.36亿的月活跃用户，该平台强调支持其300万内容创作者，同时将用户参与度提高到每天95分钟以上。第四季度，商业化努力推动广告收入增长28%，增值服务收入增长22%，全年总收入达到225亿元人民币。第四季度毛利润增长了33%，利润率为26.1%，调整后净亏损缩小了58%。公司的内容生态系统蓬勃发展，吸引了不同的人口，用户参与度指标保持强劲，每日视频观看量增长25%，官方会员达到2.3亿。展望未来，公司的目标是在积极的经营性现金流和健康的现金状况的支持下，增强商业化能力，保持运营效率，实现盈利里程碑。24财年第一季度建议交易区间10.0美至13.5美元。积极前景。

Samsara Inc (IOT)

4Q24 Revenue: $276.27M, +48.1% YoY, beat estimates by $17.96M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.04, beat estimates by $0.01
1Q25 Guidance: Total revenue $271mn to $273mn; Non-GAAP net income per share, diluted $0.00 – $0.01. FY25 Guidance: Total revenue $1,186mn – $1,196mn; Non-GAAP diluted net income per share $0.11 – $0.13.
Comment: Samsara Inc. posted better-than-expected results, and issued strong guidance. The company saw larger customers who generate at least $100,000 per year in sales increasing by 49% YoY, and still saw strong demand across vertical markets, including from construction companies, local governments, and transportation firms, boosting its revenue. The company saw its annual recurring revenue rise to $1.1 billion, up 39% YoY, and its adjusted gross margin rose to 76% from 74% one year ago. While the company reported a wider loss of $113.3 million, compared to a loss of $53.6 million a year ago, investors were impressed by the surge in revenue growth. The company’s most recent partnership with the computerized maintenance management system startup Limble Solutions LLC, would help to address the challenge of predictive maintenance for companies operating a vehicle fleet, making its software even more useful to customers. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $36 to $48. Positive Outlook.

Samsara (IOT)

24财年第四季营收：2.7627亿美元，同比增加48.1%，超预期1,796万美元
24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.04美元，超预期0.01美元
25财年第一季指引：总收入2.71亿至2.73亿美元；Non-GAAP每股净收入，摊薄0.00至0.01美元。25财年指引：总收入11.86亿至11.96亿美元；Non-GAAP每股摊薄净收益为0.11至0.13美元。
短评：Samsara Inc.公布了好于预期的业绩，并发布了强劲的业绩指引。该公司发现，年销售额至少为10万美元的大客户同比增长49%，而且垂直市场的需求依然强劲，包括建筑公司、地方政府和运输公司，从而提振了公司的收入。该公司年度经常性收入增长至11亿美元，同比增长39%，调整后毛利率从一年前的74%上升至76%。虽然该公司公布的亏损从去年同期的5,360万美元扩大至1.133亿美元，但收入增长的大幅增长给投资者留下了深刻印象。该公司最近与计算机化维护管理系统初创公司Limble Solutions LLC的合作，将有助于解决运营车队的公司面临的预测性维护挑战，使其软件对客户更有用。24财年第一季度建议交易区间36美至48美元。积极前景。