Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX SP): Benefitting from macroeconomic uncertainty
BUY Entry – 14.3 Target– 15.5 Stop Loss – 13.7
Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore’s Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses. The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.
Benefitting from fund outflows from the U.S. The weakening of the USD, coupled with escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, has triggered a capital outflow from U.S. equities to emerging markets like Singapore. Singapore’s high-yield, defensive stocks, such as telecom, industrials, and utilities, have benefitted from this trend, making the Singapore Exchange an attractive platform for institutional investors seeking stability and income.
Supportive government policies driving growth. The Singapore government, through the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), introduced a series of initiatives to enhance the attractiveness and competitiveness of the local stock market. These include the $5bn Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP), which will partner with fund managers to invest in Singapore equities and streamlined regulations to make the listing process more efficient. Additionally, tax incentives and expanded research grants under the Grant for Equity Market Singapore (GEMS) aim to attract quality IPOs and boost liquidity. These comprehensive measures, coupled with a focus on fostering innovation and sustainability sectors, position the Singapore Exchange as a prime destination for both retail and institutional investors, fostering long-term growth and resilience.
Safe-haven for investors. Positioned as a safe-haven financial hub, Singapore offers a unique combination of high dividend yields, economic resilience, and a robust regulatory framework. Its ability to weather global economic instability makes the Singapore Exchange a sweet spot for investors looking for reliable returns and capital preservation amidst current market volatility.
1H25 results review. Singapore Exchange Ltd reported 1H25 revenue of S$682.2mn a 15.2% increase from S$592.2mn in the previous period. Its net profit of S$340mn for 1H25, a 20.7% incline YoY, compared to S$281.6mn in 1H24. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at S$0.318, up from S$0.263 in the year-ago period. Due to the Group’s strong performance, the Board of Directors declared an interim quarterly dividend of S$0.09 per share, up from the S$0.085-per-share payout in the previous corresponding period, bringing total dividends for 1H25 to S$0.18 per share.
Market consensus
(Source: Bloomberg)
Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP): Risk off and rate cut expectations
Sembcorp Industries Ltd provides utilities and integrated services for industrial sites such as power, gas, steam, water, wastewater treatment and other on-site services. Sembcorp Industries serves industrial parks, business, commercial, and residential spaces.
Rotation to defensive sectors and rising rate cut expectations. Escalating global trade tensions, driven by the broad tariff policies of the US, will gradually reshape global supply chains. World economic growth, especially in Asia, is expected to slow down substantially in the near term. Amidst macro headwinds, the utility sector is expected to outperform others. Meanwhile, expectations of rate cut are reviving. Lower interest rates would benefit Sembcorp by reducing financing costs, enhancing project viability, and potentially boosting demand for its energy and urban solutions. In a nutshell, investors favour assets with stability and visibility moving forward.
Proposed acquisition. Sembcorp Industries plans to increase its stake in Senoko Energy from 30% to a maximum of 70%, expanding its role in Singapore’s energy sector. The acquisition agreement, signed with KPIC Netherlands, Kyuden International, and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), involves purchasing up to a 57.1% stake in Lion Power, which owns 70% of Senoko. The deal, valued at up to S$144mn, will be funded through internal cash and/or external borrowings and is expected to close in 2Q25. The Energy Market Authority has approved the acquisition, with Sembcorp committing to measures that ensure fair market competition. The acquisition is projected to be earnings accretive but will not significantly impact net tangible assets per share for FY25. This strategic move strengthens Sembcorp’s position in Singapore’s energy market and supports its commitment to the energy transition. With a larger stake in Senoko, Sembcorp can enhance operational synergies and contribute more effectively to sustainable and reliable energy solutions, aligning with its long-term growth strategy.
Increased dividend payout. Sembcorp raised its dividend to S$0.23 per share, from its previous S$0.13 in FY23, reflecting a higher payout ratio, signaling confidence in sustained profitability. The company’s net profit before exceptional items remained above S$1bn for a second consecutive year. Sembcorp’s gas and related services segment saw a 10% decline in profit to S$727mn, impacted by a 34% drop in Singapore’s wholesale electricity prices. However, the company solidified its position as the leading power provider for data centers and acquired a 30% stake in Senoko Energy. Additionally, it fully exited coal-fired power assets with the divestment of its 49% stake in Chongqing Songzao. Sembcorp’s renewable energy portfolio grew to 13.1 GW in 2024, progressing toward its 2028 goal of 25 GW. The company remains focused on executing its 2024-2028 strategic plan to meet Asia’s evolving energy needs. With a stronger commitment to dividends and an expanding clean energy portfolio, the company is poised to capitalize on Asia’s transition to sustainable energy while maintaining financial stability.
FY24 financial results. Sembcorp Industries Ltd reported net profit of S$1,011mn for FY24, a 7% incline YoY, compared to S$942mn in FY23. Due to the Group’s strong performance, the Board of Directors approved a total dividend of S$0.23 per ordinary share for FY24, an increase from the S$0.13 distributed for FY23.
Market consensus
(Source: Bloomberg)
Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961 HK): Upcoming seasonality play
Trip.com Group Ltd is a China-based company mainly engaged in the operation of one-stop travel platform. The Company’s platform integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. Its platform aggregates its product and service offerings, reviews and other content shared by its users based on their real travel experiences, and original content from its ecosystem partners to enable leisure and business travelers to have access to travel experiences and make informed and cost-effective bookings. Users come to its platform for any type of trip, from in-destination activities, weekend getaways, and short-haul trips, to cross-border vacations and business trips.
Upcoming May Day Holidays. The May Day holidays in China, officially observed from May 1 to May 5, are expected to drive a significant uptick in travel activity. The holiday travel rush is anticipated to span from April 29 to May 6, with peak passenger flow projected on May 1. Short-haul outbound travel is showing strong momentum, supported by rising demand for both group tours and independent travel. Market data reveals a 60% year-over-year increase in group tour bookings and a 29% rise in independent travel among mainland Chinese tourists. Additionally, flight bookings for the holiday period have exceeded 750,000 for both outbound and inbound routes. This surge in travel demand is likely to benefit Trip.com Group Ltd. positively.
Trip.com Group share price seasonality chart
(Source: Bloomberg)
New Initiatives to Attract Consumers. Trip.com Group recently launched its 2025 Word-of-Mouth Travel Rankings, offering users a fresh way to explore global destinations across its platforms. The rankings feature 16 themed global lists and “Recommended Itineraries,” combining user reviews, AI-driven insights, and curated content to streamline the travel planning process—from inspiration to booking. These itineraries link top-rated hotels, attractions, restaurants, and nightlife experiences, reflecting real user journeys and enabling personalized planning through Trip.com’s intelligent recommendation system. Travelers can explore seasonal highlights, save customized routes, and receive tailored suggestions based on their preferences and travel dates. The rankings cover 291 destinations, over 1,500 hotels, 800 attractions, 800 restaurants, and nearly 400 night tour options—enhancing the overall user experience and engagement on the platform.
Expanding Strategic Partnerships. Trip.com has also deepened its partnership with Emirates, further integrating flights, hotels, and loyalty programs to enrich travel offerings in key global markets. The next phase of this collaboration will focus on unlocking growth opportunities in new markets and customer segments. Both companies plan to expand Trip.com’s global footprint by leveraging Emirates’ extensive international network and coordinating joint promotional campaigns, particularly in Asia and Europe—strategic regions for both partners.
FY24 earnings. Revenue increased by 19.8% YoY to RMB53.4bn in FY24, compared to RMB44.6bn in FY23. Net Profit increased by 72.2% to RMB17.2bn in FY24, compared to RMB10.0bn in FY23. Basic earnings per share is RMB26.1 in FY24, compared to a basic earnings per share of RMB24.8 in FY23.
Market consensus.
(Source: Bloomberg)
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd. (3968 HK): Expecting more stimulus to combat U.S. tariffs
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd is a China-based company mainly engaged in banking business. The Company operates three segments. The Wholesale Finance Business segment provides financial services to corporate clients, government agency clients, and interbank clients, including loan and deposit services, settlement and cash management services, trade finance and offshore business, investment banking services, borrowing, repurchase, asset custody services, and others. The Retail Finance Business segment provides financial services to individual customers, including loan and deposit services, bank card services, wealth management, private banking, and other services. The company also operates the Other Businesses segment.
Expecting additional Stimulus to Counter U.S. Tariffs. China’s top leadership convened on recently to discuss further stimulus measures in response to heightened U.S. tariffs, according to sources. The meeting reportedly centered on support for the housing sector, consumer spending, and technological innovation. Financial regulators and related agencies are also preparing measures to help stabilize financial markets. These potential further stimulus efforts are likely to benefit China Merchants Bank (CMB), given the alignment with its core business strengths. Increased loan demand, improved asset quality, and growth opportunities in emerging sectors could follow.
Stock Repurchase and Capital Support Initiatives. Chinese commercial banks have stepped up support for stock repurchase and share increase programs, with total credit commitments surpassing RMB 300bn. These efforts aim to help listed companies stabilize valuations and optimize capital structures, contributing to broader market stabilization. As of April 6, China Merchants Bank had initiated 288 such projects, totaling RMB 104.8bn. This initiative has supported loan growth and boosted interest income, while also reinforcing broader economic resilience.
FY24 earnings. Revenue fell marginally by 0.58% YoY to RMB337.1bn in FY24, compared to RMB339.1bn in FY23. Profit increased by 1.22% to RMB148.4bn in FY24, compared to RMB146.6bn in FY23. Basic earnings per share was RMB5.66 in FY24, compared to a basic earnings per share of RMB5.63 in FY23.
Market consensus.
(Source: Bloomberg)
MakeMyTrip Ltd (MMYT US): Increase in travel demand
BUY Entry – 102 Target – 112 Stop Loss – 97
Makemytrip Ltd. offers travel services over the Internet. The Company operates websites that allow travelers to research and plan trips and book airline tickets, hotels, packages, rail tickets, bus tickets, and rental cars. Makemytrip also offers access to travel insurance.
Fund reallocation to emerging markets. The continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar, driven by U.S. policy instability and heightened trade tensions, has prompted investors to reduce their exposure to the U.S. market. This loss of confidence in the dollar has increased investment in emerging markets. According to the IMF, India is a key beneficiary due to its forecasted 2025 GDP growth of 6.2%. After four months of net outflows of funds from India, India recorded positive net inflows since March, especially in its equities market, signalling increased investor confidence.
Fund flows – India
(Source: Bloomberg)
Capitalizing on growing middle class. Fuelled by India’s expanding middle class Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) forecasts India’s outbound tourism market to reach US$55.4bn by 2034, with an annual compound growth rate exceeding 11%. MakeMyTrip is strategically positioned to capitalize on this surge in international travel demand, especially as global destinations increasingly target Indian travellers due to reduced Chinese outbound tourism. By 2027, India is expected to be the fifth-largest outbound market, with spending hitting US$34.2bn in 2023 and expected to surpass US$76.8bn by 2034. India is also the third-largest air passenger market and anticipates adding 960 million new passengers by 2042. The increasing purchasing power of Indians is attributed to the country’s annual economic growth of 6% to 7%, which is expanding its middle and high-income population. MakeMyTrip is strategically poised to capitalize on this growth, particularly given the increased focus on attracting Indian travellers and India’s expanding air passenger market.
IPL boosting domestic tourism. The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025, held from 22 March to 25 May, is set to significantly boost domestic tourism. As fans travel across cities to support their favourite teams, platforms like MakeMyTrip are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend by meeting the growing demand for experience driven travel. IPL hosting cities have seen a surge in bookings, with the rise of community based stays and match themed packages reshaping seasonal travel behaviours, particularly among Gen Z and millennial travellers. This trend presents a strategic opportunity for MakeMyTrip to strengthen its market presence through curated offerings that integrate sport and convenience. In 2019, the IPL attracted nearly 400,000 domestic and international tourists, generating $68mn in direct hospitality revenues. Following pandemic related disruptions, IPL 2025 signifies a robust resurgence, solidifying sports tourism as a key driver of India’s domestic travel landscape. As the league continues to grow, it will continue to drive significant growth in tourism, hospitality, and local economies nationwide, benefitting MakeMyTrip domestic travel revenue.
3Q25 results. MakeMyTrip delivered a 24.8% YoY increase in revenue to US$267.36mn, surpassing estimates by US$2.24mn. GAAP earnings per share were US$0.23, beating expectations by US$0.01.
Market consensus
(Source: Bloomberg)
Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED US): Solid dividends and defensive appeal
Consolidated Edison, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a variety of energy related products and services. The Company supplies electric service in New York, parts of New Jersey, and Pennsylvania as well as supplies electricity to wholesale customers.
Highly defensive utility stock. In a macroeconomic environment characterized by increasing trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and regulatory uncertainty, Consolidated Edison stands out due to its highly defensive business model. As a fully regulated provider of electricity, natural gas, and steam services focused entirely on the U.S. domestic market, the company’s operations are largely insulated from the direct impacts of international trade conflicts or global supply chain disruptions. This allows it to provide stable returns during periods of global market volatility, making it a reliable income-generating asset.
Dependable dividend income with a strong track record. The company boasts a solid dividend history, with 51 consecutive years of stable dividend increases and an average annual growth rate of 5.59%. Its current 12-month trailing yield is 2.98%, and it maintains a long-term dividend payout ratio target of 55%-65% of adjusted earnings. The transparent regulatory framework under which it operates in New York State provides a high degree of predictability and stability to its revenue. Looking ahead, the company plans to invest $38 billion in capital expenditures between 2025 and 2029, which is expected to drive an average annual growth of 8.2% in its utility asset base. Furthermore, the simplification of its capital structure, with no long-term debt at the parent company level, further enhances its financial resilience. In today’s uncertain global landscape, the company’s U.S. domestic focus and provision of essential public services make it a high-quality choice for conservative and income-oriented investment portfolios.
4Q24 results. Non-GAAP earnings per share were US$0.98, beating expectations by US$0.02. The company declared a $0.85/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous, payable 16 June; for shareholders of record 14 May. It expects its adjusted profit for 2025 to be between US$5.50 and US$5.70 per share, the midpoint of which was below Wall Street estimates of US$5.63 per share. Consolidated Edison expects its capital expenditure to be US$5.12bn in 2025 and US$8.07bn in 2026.
