Technical Analysis – 26 February 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Nike, Inc. (NKE US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 80.0, Target 90.0, Stop 75.0
  

Hasbro, Inc. (HAS US)

• Shares closed at a high since October 2024. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 68.0 Target 73.0 Stop 65.5
  

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Raffles Medical Group Ltd. (RFMD SP)

• Shares closed at a high since October 2024 with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.900, Target 0.980, Stop 0.860
  

Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA SP)

• Shares closed at a high since October 2024 with constructive volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 6.65 Target 7.05, Stop 6.45
  

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XPeng Inc (9868 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 73, Target 79, Stop 70
  

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 17.6 Target 19.0, Stop 16.9
  

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Home Depot Inc (HD)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $39.7B, +14.1% YoY, beat estimates by $630M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.13, beat estimates by $0.09
  
• 4Q24 Dividend: Home Depot declares $2.30/share quarterly dividend, 2.2% increase from prior dividend of $2.25; Forward yield 2.41%; Payable March 27; for shareholders of record March 13; ex-div March 13.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects FY25 revenue growth to be 2.80%, below consensus of 3.36%; expected adjusted EPS growth to be down around 2.0%, below consensus of a growth of 3.98%; expects comparable sales growth to be 1.0%, below consensus of 1.65%; expects gross margin rate to be around 33.40%; expects adjusted operating margin rate to be around 13.40%.
  
• Comment: Home Depot delivered strong results, returning to positive comparable sales growth after eight consecutive quarters of declines. This performance came despite ongoing challenges from high mortgage rates and elevated home prices, which have pressured both Home Depot and its rival, Lowe’s. Comparable sales rose 0.8%, surpassing market expectations of a 1.7% decline. Customer engagement improved, with more frequent visits to Home Depot’s stores and website. Transactions climbed nearly 8% year-over-year to 400.4 million, while the average ticket increased slightly to $89.11 from $88.87 a year ago. Looking ahead, the company expects consumers to resume home improvement projects as they adjust to higher interest rates rather than waiting for a decline. However, Home Depot issued a softer-than-expected outlook, citing a persistently sluggish housing market constrained by elevated mortgage rates. The prolonged high-rate environment is likely to keep housing demand under pressure. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $370 to $420. Neutral Outlook.
  

家得宝 (HD)

• 24财年第四季营收：397亿美元，同比增长14.1%，超出预期6.3亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季非GAAP每股收益：3.13美元，超出预期0.09美元
  
• 24财年第四季股息：家得宝宣布每股季度股息2.30美元，较之前的股息2.25美元增加2.2%；远期收益率为2.41%；3月27日支付；3月13日登记在册的股东；3月13日除息。
  
• 25财年指引：预计25财年营收增长2.80%，低于市场预期的3.36%；预计调整后每股收益将下降约2.0%，低于市场预期的增长3.98%；预计同店销售额增长1.0%，低于市场预期的1.65%；预计毛利率约为33.40%；预计调整后营业利润率约为13.40%。
  
• 短评：家得宝业绩强劲，在连续八个季度下滑后，同店销售额恢复正增长。尽管抵押贷款利率高企和房价高企持续带来挑战，对家得宝及其竞争对手劳氏公司都造成了压力，但家得宝仍取得了这一成绩。同店销售额增长0.8%，超过了市场预期的下降1.7%。客户参与度有所提高，访问家得宝商店和网站的频率更高。交易量同比增长近8%，达到4.004亿笔，平均客单价从一年前的88.87美元小幅上升至89.11美元。展望未来，该公司预计，消费者将适应较高的利率，而不是等待利率下降，从而恢复家庭装修项目。然而，由于抵押贷款利率高企导致房地产市场持续低迷，家得宝发布了低于预期的展望。长期的高利率环境可能会继续对住房需求造成压力。25财年第一季建议交易区间：370美元至420美元。中性前景。
  

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $148.8M, +28.8% YoY, beat estimates by $4.02M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.42 beat estimates by $0.19
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects its in force premium (IFP) to be between $997mn to $1,000mn, in-line with estimates; expects gross earned premiums (GEP) to be between $229mn to $231mn; expects revenue to be between $143mn to $145mn, lower than consensus of $152mn; expects adjusted EBITDA loss to be between $46mn to $49mn, lower than consensus of an EBITDA loss of $39.2mn.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects its in-force premium (IFP) to be between $1,203mn to $1,208mn, in-line with consensus; expects gross earned premiums (GEP) to be between $1,025mn to $1,028mn; expects revenue to be between $655mn to $657mn, lower than consensus of $663mn; expects adjusted EBITDA loss to be between $135mn to $140mn, lower than consensus of an EBITDA loss of $126mn.
  
• Comment: Lemonade delivered stronger-than-expected 4Q24 results, with in-force premium reaching $944mn at year-end, in line with consensus estimates and up 26% YoY. Customer growth accelerated, rising 20% YoY to 2.43mn, compared to a 17% increase in 3Q24. Premium per customer edged up to $388 at the end of 4Q24, from $384 in 3Q24, reflecting a 5% annual increase. The company reaffirmed its expectation for a second consecutive year of positive adjusted free cash flow in 2025 and continued improvement in adjusted EBITDA, remaining on track to achieve positive EBITDA by the end of FY2026. However, Lemonade’s revenue and EBITDA guidance for 1Q25 and FY25 fell short of market expectations. The company also faces potential headwinds from ongoing wildfire risks in the U.S., while elevated interest rates may keep consumers hesitant to increase their insurance spending in the near term. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $23 to $31. Neutral Outlook.
  

Lemonade (LMND)

• 24财年第四季营收：1.488亿美元，同比增长28.8%，超出预期402万美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股收益：-0.42美元，超出预期0.19美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计有效保费（IFP）将在9.97亿至10亿美元之间，与预期一致；预计总已赚保费（GEP）将在2.29亿至2.31亿美元之间；预计营收将在1.43亿至1.45亿美元之间，低于市场普遍预期的1.52亿美元；预计调整后EBITDA亏损将在4600万至4900万美元之间，低于市场普遍预期的3920万美元EBITDA亏损。
  
• 25财年全年指引：预计有效保费（IFP）将在12.03亿至12.08亿美元之间，与市场普遍预期一致；预计总已赚保费（GEP）将在10.25亿至10.28亿美元之间；预计营收将在6.55亿至6.57亿美元之间，低于市场普遍预期的6.63亿美元；预计调整后EBITDA亏损将在1.35亿至1.4亿美元之间，低于市场普遍预期的1.26亿美元EBITDA亏损。
  
• 短评：Lemonade公布的24财年第四季度业绩强于预期，年底有效保费达到9.44亿美元，与市场普遍预期一致，同比增长26%。客户增长加速，同比增长20%至243万，而24财年第三季度增长率为17%。24财年第四季度末，每位客户的保费小幅上升至388美元，而24财年第三季度为384美元，反映出5%的年度增长。该公司重申了其对2025年连续第二年实现调整后自由现金流为正的预期，并持续改善调整后EBITDA，保持在2026财年末实现EBITDA为正的轨道上。然而，Lemonade对25财年第一季度和全年营收和EBITDA的指引均低于市场预期。该公司还面临美国持续野火风险带来的潜在不利因素，同时高利率可能使消费者在短期内不愿增加保险支出。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：23美元至31美元。中性前景。
  

Workday Inc (WDAY)

• 4Q25 Revenue: $2.21B, +15.1% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  
• 4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.92, beat estimates by $0.14
  
• 1Q26 Guidance: Expect subscription revenue of $2.05 billion, representing growth of 13% and Non-GAAP operating margin of 28.0%.
  
• FY26 Guidance: Subscription revenue of $8.80 billion, representing growth of 14% and Non-GAAP operating margin of 28.0%.
  
• Comment: Workday delivered strong Q4 results, surpassing revenue and earnings expectations on the back of robust demand for its subscription services and AI-powered solutions. Subscription revenue grew 16% year-over-year to $2.04 billion, slightly above estimates, while total revenue reached $2.21 billion. The company highlighted increasing adoption of its full-suite and AI-driven products. Earlier, Workday announced plans to cut approximately 1,750 jobs, or 8.5% of its workforce, as it shifts focus toward AI investments amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment. For FY26, the company’s subscription revenue forecast of $8.8 billion aligns with market expectations, though its Q1 guidance fell short by $10 million. Looking ahead, Workday is poised to benefit from its cost-cutting initiatives and an expanding portfolio of AI-driven services. However, near-term headwinds remain, as broader workforce reductions across industries could dampen enterprise spending. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $275 to $305. Positive Outlook.
  

Workday (WDAY)

• 25财年第四季营收：22.1亿美元，同比增长15.1%，超出预期3000万美元
  
• 25财年第四季非GAAP每股收益：1.92美元，超出预期0.14美元
  
• 26财年第一季指引：预计订阅收入为20.5亿美元，同比增长13%，非GAAP运营利润率为28.0%。
  
• 26财年全年指引：预计订阅收入为88.0亿美元，同比增长14%，非GAAP运营利润率为28.0%。
  
• 短评：Workday公布了强劲的第四季度业绩，在对其订阅服务和人工智能驱动的解决方案的强劲需求推动下，其收入和盈利均超出预期。订阅收入同比增长16%，达到20.4亿美元，略高于预期，而总收入达到22.1亿美元。该公司强调，其全套和人工智能驱动的产品被越来越多的采用。此前，Workday宣布计划裁员约1,750人，占其员工总数的8.5%，因为该公司在宏观经济环境不确定的情况下，将重点转向人工智能投资。对于26财年，该公司的订阅收入预测为88亿美元，与市场预期一致，但其第一季度指引比预期低1000万美元。展望未来，Workday有望从其成本削减举措和不断扩大的人工智能驱动服务组合中获益。然而，近期仍存在不利因素，因为各行业的普遍裁员可能会抑制企业支出。26财年第一季建议交易区间：275美元至305美元。积极前景。
  

Intuit Inc. (INTU)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $3.96B, +16.8% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.32, beat estimates by $0.74
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue between $7.55 billion and $7.60 billion, compared with the average analyst estimate of $7.51 billion and adjusted profit per share of $10.89 to $10.95, below estimates of $11.48.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Reiterate expectations for revenue of $18.160 billion to $18.347 billion, growth of approximately 12 to 13%. GAAP diluted earnings per share of $12.34 to $12.54 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $19.16 to $19.36.
  
• Comment: Intuit delivered strong Q2 results, exceeding revenue and earnings estimates, driven by AI-powered financial services and tax season demand. Yhr company forecasted Q3 revenue of US$7.55bn to US$7.60bn above expectations of US$7.51bn. However, its Q3 profit guidance of US$10.89 to US$10.95 fell short of estimates of US$11.48. The company reaffirmed its FY25 outlook, expecting 12% to 13% revenue growth and double-digit earnings expansion. Intuit’s AI-driven products, including Intuit Assist and QuickBooks enhancements, remain key growth drivers. The company’s rapid hiring rebound after previous workforce reductions signals confidence. We remain optimistic about Intuit’s continued growth, particularly as the tax season drives further adoption of AI-enhanced features within its various financial products. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $560 to $610. Positive Outlook.
  

Intuit (INTU)

• 25财年第二季营收：39.6亿美元，同比增长16.8%，超出预期1.3亿美元
  
• 25财年第二季非GAAP每股收益：3.32美元，超出预期0.74美元
  
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收将在75.5亿美元至76.0亿美元之间，高于市场平均预期的75.1亿美元；调整后每股收益预计为10.89美元至10.95美元，低于市场预期的11.48美元。
  
• 25财年全年指引：重申营收预期为181.6亿美元至183.47亿美元，增长约12%至13%；GAAP稀释后每股收益为12.34美元至12.54美元，非GAAP稀释后每股收益为19.16美元至19.36美元。
  
• 短评：Intuit公布的第二季业绩强劲，营收和收益均超出预期，这得益于人工智能驱动的金融服务和报税季的需求。公司预测第三季度营收为75.5亿美元至76.0亿美元，高于市场预期的75.1亿美元。然而，其第三季利润指引为10.89美元至10.95美元，低于市场预期的11.48美元。公司重申了其25财年全年展望，预计营收增长12%至13%，盈利实现两位数增长。Intuit的人工智能驱动产品，包括Intuit Assist和QuickBooks的增强功能，仍然是关键的增长动力。公司在先前裁员后迅速恢复招聘，表明了信心。我们对Intuit的持续增长保持乐观，特别是在报税季推动其各种金融产品中人工智能增强功能的进一步应用。25财年第三季建议交易区间：560美元至610美元。积极前景。