Technical Analysis – 5 February 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC US)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 155 Target 175 Stop 1145
  

Valero Energy Corp. (VLO US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 141 Target 157 Stop 133
  

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Starhub Ltd. (STH SP)

• Shares closed at a high since September 2024 with constructive volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.23, Target 1.29, Stop 1.20
  

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd. (CNMC SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.300 Target 0.320, Stop 0.290
  

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SenseTime Group Inc (20 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 1.7, Target 1.9, Stop 1.6
  

Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd (268 HK)

• Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 5dEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 10.9 Target 11.9, Stop 10.4
  

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PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $8.4B, +5.0% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.19, beat estimates by $0.07
  
• Stock Repurchase program: PayPal Holdings announced during its earnings a new $15B stock repurchase program. The payments company said the authorization comes in addition to the June 2022 stock repurchase program. The old share buyback program had $4.86B remaining authorization as of December 31, 2024.
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects adjusted EPS to be between $1.15 to $1.17, midpoint of $1.16 above consensus of $1.14.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects adjusted EPS to be between $4.95 to $5.10, midpoint of $5.025 above consensus of $4.89; expects free cash flow to be between $6.0bn to $7.0bn, midpoint of $6.5bn below consensus of $6.61bn.
  
• Comment: PayPal delivered strong quarterly results and issued guidance that exceeded expectations. However, total payment volume (TPV)—a key indicator of digital payment trends—fell slightly short of estimates, reaching $437.8 billion in 4Q24 versus the consensus of $438.2 billion. The company’s take rate declined to 1.91% from 1.96% a year ago, but transaction margin improved to 47% from 45.8%. Amid intensified competition and pressure on its take rate, PayPal has been focused on reigniting growth by prioritizing profitability and better monetizing key acquisitions like Braintree and Venmo. Venmo’s TPV grew 10% year-over-year, supported by increasing merchant adoption. Businesses such as DoorDash, Starbucks, and Ticketmaster now accept Venmo, a trend that is expected to drive further transaction volume growth. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $70 to $85. Neutral Outlook.
  

Paypal Holdings (PYPL)

• 24财年第四季营收： 84亿美元，同比增长5.0%，超出预期1.2亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利： 1.19美元，超出预期0.07美元
  
• 股票回购计划： PayPal Holdings在财报中宣布了一项新的150亿美元股票回购计划。该公司表示，此项授权是对2022年6月股票回购计划的补充。截至2024年12月31日，旧的股票回购计划剩余授权为48.6亿美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引： 预计调整后每股盈利在1.15美元至1.17美元之间，中值1.16美元高于市场预期的1.14美元。
  
• 25财年全年指引： 预计调整后每股盈利在4.95美元至5.10美元之间，中值5.025美元高于市场预期的4.89美元；预计自由现金流在60亿美元至70亿美元之间，中值65亿美元低于市场预期的66.1亿美元。
  
• 短评： PayPal公布了强劲的季度业绩，并发布了超出预期的指引。然而，总支付量（TPV）是衡量数字支付趋势的关键指标，略低于预期，24财年第四季度为4378亿美元，而市场预期为4382亿美元。该公司Take Rate从一年前的1.96%降至1.91%，但交易利润率从45.8%提高至47%。面对日益激烈的竞争和Take Rate的压力，PayPal一直致力于通过优先考虑盈利能力和更好地利用Braintree和Venmo等重要收购项目来重新点燃增长势头。在越来越多的商家接受Venmo的支持下，Venmo的TPV同比增长了10%。DoorDash、星巴克和Ticketmaster等企业现在都接受Venmo，预计这将推动交易量进一步增长。25财年第一季建议交易区间：70美元至85美元。中性前景。
  

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

• 4Q24 Revenue: €4.24B, +16.0% YoY, beat estimates by €50M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: €1.76, miss estimates by €0.23
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: estimates the company will have 678mn MAUs, a net add of 3mn, with two-thirds expected to be premium paid subscribers. Total revenue is estimated at €4.2bn, outperforming LSEG-surveyed analysts’ expectations at €4.17bn.
  
• Comment: Spotify delivered mixed results but achieved its first full year of profitability, closing FY24 with €1.14 billion in net income. The company also reported a record $10 billion in royalty payments to the music industry, a figure expected to grow following its new multiyear publishing agreement with Universal Music Group announced in January. The deal includes new paid subscription tiers, bundled offerings for music and non-music content, and a direct licensing arrangement in the U.S. and other markets. Monthly active users (MAUs) reached 675mn, surpassing the consensus estimate of 664.3mn. The company highlighted a record fourth-quarter net addition of 35mn MAUs, representing 5% sequential growth and a 12% increase YoY. Spotify Wrapped remained a key driver of user engagement, with its annual December listening insights contributing to continued YoY growth.1Q25 recommended trading range: $580 to $700. Positive Outlook.
  

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

• 24财年第四季营收：42.4亿欧元，同比增长16.0%，超出预期5000万欧元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.76欧元，低于预期0.23欧元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计月活跃用户（MAU）将达到6.78亿，净增300万，其中三分之二预计为付费高级订阅用户。总收入预计为42亿欧元，高于LSEG调查分析师预期的41.7亿欧元。
  
• 短评：Spotify公布了喜忧参半的业绩，但实现了首次全年盈利，24财年净收入为11.4亿欧元。该公司还报告称，向音乐行业支付了创纪录的100亿美元版税，预计这一数字将随着1月份宣布的与环球音乐集团新的多年出版协议而增长。该协议包括新的付费订阅层级、音乐和非音乐内容的捆绑服务，以及在美国和其他市场的直接授权安排。月活跃用户（MAU）达到6.75亿，超过了此前分析师普遍预期的6.643亿。该公司强调，第四季度净增MAU 3500万，创历史新高，环比增长5%，同比增长12%。Spotify Wrapped仍然是推动用户参与度的关键因素，其12月份的年度收听洞察力为持续的同比增长做出了贡献。25财年第一季建议交易区间：580美元至700美元。积极前景。
  

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $27.78B, -0.3% YoY, miss estimates by $110M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.96, beat estimates by $0.02
  
• FY24 Dividend: PepsiCo announced 53^rd consecutive annual dividend per share increase to $5.69, up 5% from prior annual dividend of $5.42; the quarterly dividend is expected to be paid in June 2025.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects core EPS to see a low single-digit increase, vs consensus of $8.53; expects organic revenue growth to see a low single-digit increase, vs consensus of 3.22%.
  
• Comment: PepsiCo delivered strong earnings but fell short on revenue, impacted by weakness in the North American market. The shortfall was particularly pronounced in the Quaker Foods segment, which continued to feel the effects of product recalls in 2024. Like many packaged-food companies, PepsiCo has faced headwinds as consumers pull back on spending amid inflationary pressures. Additionally, the growing adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could further weigh on demand for snacks and sugary beverages. Regulatory uncertainty also looms, with potential policy changes under a Trump administration that could impact the food industry, including stricter labeling requirements, restrictions on certain food additives, and possible cuts to the food stamp program that supports lower-income consumers. Beyond regulation, shifting consumer preferences toward healthier options present another challenge, as PepsiCo’s core products have traditionally prioritized taste over nutrition. In response, the company has been actively expanding its portfolio to include more health-focused offerings. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $136 to $148. Negative Outlook.
  

百事可乐 (PEP)

• 24财年第四季营收：277.8亿美元，同比下降0.3%，未达预期1.1亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.96美元，超出预期0.02美元
  
• 24财年股息：百事可乐宣布连续第53年提高年度每股股息至5.69美元，较前一年的5.42美元增长5%；预计季度股息将于2025年6月支付。
  
• 25财年指引：预计核心每股盈利将实现低个位数增长，低于市场预期的8.53美元；预计有机营收将实现低个位数增长，低于市场预期的3.22%。
  
• 短评：百事可乐盈利表现强劲，但营收未达预期，主要受北美市场疲软影响。桂格食品部门的营收下滑尤为明显，该部门持续受到2024年产品召回事件的影响。与许多食品包装公司一样，百事可乐面临着消费者在通胀压力下减少支出的不利因素。此外，GLP-1减肥药的日益普及可能会进一步抑制消费者对零食和含糖饮料的需求。特朗普政府领导下的潜在政策变化也带来监管不确定性，这些变化可能会影响食品行业，包括更严格的标签要求、限制某些食品添加剂以及可能削减支持低收入消费者的食品券计划。除监管外，消费者对更健康食品的偏好转变也带来了挑战，因为百事可乐的核心产品传统上更注重口味而非营养。对此，该公司一直在积极扩大其产品组合，以纳入更多以健康为导向的产品。25财年第一季建议交易区间：136美元至148美元。负面前景。
  

Apollo Global Management (APO)

• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.22, beat estimates by $0.33
  
• 4Q24 Dividend: Apollo Global Management declares $0.4625/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 1.11%; Payable Feb. 28; for shareholders of record Feb. 18; ex-div Feb. 18.
  
• Guidance: Expects to reach $1tn in AUM by 2026 and $1.5tn in AUM by 2029; The company also aims to grow fee-related earnings at an average annual rate of 20% and spread-related earnings at 10% over the next five years. The company plans to expand its origination capabilities and capitalize on opportunities in the global industrial renaissance, retirement solutions, and the convergence of public and private markets.
  
• Comment: Apollo Global Management delivered stronger-than-expected earnings, driven by robust fee growth and solid performance in its retirement business. Private assets have become an increasingly critical part of Apollo’s strategy, with CEO Marc Rowan noting a shift in investor sentiment—moving from viewing these assets as risky to recognizing their value. The firm saw a significant $33bn inflow in the fourth quarter, fueled by demand for its credit strategies and wealth products. This helped push total assets under management (AUM) up 15% YoY to $751bn. Apollo remains ambitious in its growth plans, targeting $1tn in AUM by 2026 and $1.5tn by 2029. Looking ahead to 2025, CFO Martin Kelly highlighted third-party credit as a key driver of future growth. The company expects asset-backed finance, core origination platforms like ATLAS, and direct lending strategies to play a major role. These initiatives reinforce Apollo’s strategic focus on expanding its asset management capabilities and strengthening its market position. However, the company also notes interest rate-related headwinds to persist through 2025. The company was also added to the S&P 500 index in December 2024. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $145 to $180. Neutral Outlook.
  

阿波罗全球管理公司 (APO)

• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.22美元，超出预期0.33美元
  
• 2024年第四季度股息： 阿波罗全球管理公司宣布每股派发0.4625美元季度股息，与之前持平；远期收益率1.11%；于2月28日支付；股权登记日为2月18日；除息日为2月18日。
  
• 指引：预计到2026年资产管理规模 (AUM) 将达到1万亿美元，到2029年达到1.5万亿美元； 公司还计划在未来五年内以每年平均20%的速度增长与费用相关的收入，并以10%的速度增长与利差相关的收入。 公司计划扩大其发起源业务能力，并抓住全球产业复兴、退休解决方案以及公募和私募市场融合的机会。
  
• 短评：阿波罗全球管理公司公布了强于预期的业绩，得益于强劲的费用增长和退休业务的稳健表现。 私募资产已成为阿波罗战略中越来越关键的一部分，首席执行官Marc Rowan指出投资者情绪发生了转变——从将这些资产视为风险资产转变为认识到它们的价值。 第四季度，该公司录得330亿美元的大量资金流入，受到对该公司信贷策略和财富产品的需求推动。 这推动资产管理规模 (AUM) 同比增长15%至7510亿美元。 阿波罗在增长计划方面雄心勃勃，目标是到2026年实现1万亿美元的AUM，到2029年实现1.5万亿美元。 展望2025年，首席财务官Martin Kelly强调了第三方信贷作为未来增长的关键驱动因素。 公司预计资产支持融资、ATLAS等核心发起源平台以及直接贷款策略将在其中发挥重要作用。 这些举措强化了阿波罗扩大其资产管理能力和巩固市场地位的战略重点。 然而，该公司也指出利率相关的逆风将在2025年持续存在。 该公司还于2024年12月被纳入标普500指数。25财年第一季建议交易区间：145至180美元。中性前景。
  

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $7.7B, +24.2% YoY, beat estimates by $170M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.09, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $6.8bn and $7.4bn for 1Q25, midpoint of $7.1bn above consensus of $6.99bn
  
• Comment: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered stronger-than-expected results and issued upbeat guidance. However, its data center revenue fell short of expectations. The company reported $3.86bn in data center sales, a 69% YoY increase driven by strong demand for both Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs. Despite this growth, revenue came in below the market consensus of $4.14bn, highlighting ongoing supply constraints as AMD struggles to meet demand for its advanced AI processors used by major customers like Microsoft and Meta. Looking ahead, AMD expects strong double-digit revenue and EPS growth in 2025, citing the strength of its product portfolio and increasing demand for high-performance and adaptive computing. The company is also poised to benefit from a rebound in the PC market, as both consumers and businesses upgrade to AI-capable devices after an extended downturn. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $90 to $125. Neutral Outlook.
  

超微半导体公司 (AMD)

• 24财年第四季营收：77亿美元，同比增长24.2%，超出预期1.7亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利： 1.09美元，超出预期0.01美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计收入将在68亿美元至74亿美元之间，中值为71亿美元，高于市场普遍预期69.9亿美元。
  
• 短评：超微半导体公布了强于预期的业绩，并发布了乐观的指引。 然而，其数据中心收入低于预期。 公司报告数据中心销售额为38.6亿美元，同比增长69%，得益于对Instinct GPU和EPYC CPU的强劲需求。 尽管实现了这一增长，但收入仍低于市场普遍预期的41.4亿美元，凸显了持续的供应限制，因为AMD难以满足微软和Meta等主要客户对其先进AI处理器的高需求。 展望未来，AMD预计2025年收入和每股收益将实现强劲的两位数增长，原因是其产品组合实力强大以及对高性能和自适应计算的需求不断增长。 随着消费者和企业在经历了长时间的低迷之后升级到支持AI的设备，该公司还将受益于PC市场的复苏。25财年第一季建议交易区间：90至125美元。中性前景。
  

Alphabet Inc (GOOG)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $96.5B, +11.8% YoY, miss estimates by $170M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.15, beat estimates by $0.02
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects capital expenditures to be between $16B and $18B, which was higher than the $14.3B that was expected.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Announced plans to invest approximately $75B in capital expenditures in 2025, above estimates of $58.84B.
  
• Comment: Alphabet missed Q4 revenue estimates by US$170mn, with sales rising 12% YoY to US$96.47bn. Google Cloud grew 30% to US$11.96bn but fell short of expectations. Core Google Services revenue reached US$84.1bn, with YouTube ads at US$10.5bn and Google Search at US$54bn. Alphabet plans US$75bn in capital expenditures for 2025, raising concerns over AI investment costs. Advertising revenue and YouTube ads also showed slower growth. The company faces supply constraints for AI compute capacity and continues expanding its Waymo self-driving unit. Waymo expanded its robotaxi services, with plans for launches in Austin, Atlanta, and Tokyo. Additionally, Alphabet’s Other Bets segment underperformed, and it remains in a tight AI infrastructure race with Microsoft and Amazon. The company also faces major antitrust cases. With high expenditure anticipated alongside growing AI investment, Alphabet faces mounting pressure to justify its spending while navigating regulatory challenges. Slower than expected revenue growth and competition in cloud computing raise concerns about its future profitability. However, strong demand for AI products and strategic expansions, including Waymo’s international rollout, signal long-term potential. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $185 to $210. Neutral Outlook.
  

Alphabet Inc (GOOG)

• 24财年第四季营收：965亿美元，同比增长11.8%，低于预期1.7亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利： 2.15美元，超出预期0.02美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计资本支出将在160亿至180亿美元之间，高于预期的143亿美元。
  
• 25财年第指引：宣布计划在2025年投资约750亿美元的资本支出，高于预期的588.4亿美元。
  
• 短评：Alphabet第四季度收入为964.7亿美元，同比增长12%，但低于预期1.7亿美元。 谷歌云增长30%至119.6亿美元，但低于预期。 谷歌核心服务收入达到841亿美元，其中YouTube广告收入为105亿美元，谷歌搜索收入为540亿美元。 Alphabet计划在2025年投入750亿美元的资本支出，引发了对AI投资成本的担忧。 广告收入和YouTube广告收入增长也放缓。 公司面临AI计算能力供应紧张的问题，并继续扩大其Waymo自动驾驶汽车业务。 Waymo扩展了其自动驾驶出租车服务，计划在奥斯汀、亚特兰大和东京推出。 此外，Alphabet的“其他押注”业务表现不佳，低于华尔街预期的6.164亿美元，比去年同期的6.57亿美元下降了39%以上。 Waymo的自动驾驶出租车服务现已覆盖洛杉矶、旧金山和凤凰城，覆盖超过500平方英里的公共道路。 12月，该公司表示计划在德克萨斯州奥斯汀以及通过Uber应用程序在奥斯汀和亚特兰大推出其商业服务。 该公司还宣布将在东京开始测试Waymo，这是其首次国际扩张。 Alphabet还面临美国和英国的反垄断诉讼。 随着预期的高支出和不断增长的AI投资，Alphabet面临着证明其支出的合理性和应对监管挑战的压力。 收入增长低于预期以及云计算领域的竞争加剧了对其未来盈利能力的担忧。 25财年第一季建议交易区间：185至210美元。中性前景。
  

Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)

• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.96, miss estimates by $0.30
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: No estimates provided.
  
• Comment: Despite reporting a loss of US$57mn compared to analysts’ profit estimates of US$1.1bn, Prudential Financial reported higher Q4 adjusted profits. This was driven by strong performance in its global investment management arm, PGIM, which saw operating income rise to US$259mn from US$172mn a year ago due to higher asset management fees. However, US businesses, including retirement, group insurance and life insurance, saw an 11% decline to US$860mn due to higher expenses and less favourable underwriting results. Assets under management grew to US$1.51tn. After-tax adjusted operating income rose to US$1.07bn, US$2.96 per share, up from US$926mn, US$2.54 per share, a year earlier. We anticipate that Prudential will continue to benefit from PGIM’s strong performance. However, the company will need to effectively manage expenses and navigate potential investment losses amidst the evolving macroeconomic environment to sustain future growth. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $120. Neutral Outlook.
  

普鲁登斯金融集团 (PRU)

• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利： 2.96美元，低于预期0.30美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：未提供预期
  
• 短评：尽管普鲁登斯金融报告亏损5700万美元，低于分析师预计的11亿美元利润，但其第四季度调整后利润有所增长。 这是由其全球投资管理部门PGIM的强劲表现推动的，PGIM的营业收入从去年同期的1.72亿美元增长至2.59亿美元，原因是资产管理费用较高。 然而，包括退休金、团体保险和寿险在内的美国业务收入下降了11%至8.6亿美元，原因是支出增加和承保结果不太理想。 资产管理规模增长至1.51万亿美元。 税后调整后营业收入从去年同期的9.26亿美元（每股2.54美元）增长至10.7亿美元（每股2.96美元）。 我们预计普鲁登斯金融将继续受益于PGIM的强劲表现。 然而，该公司需要有效地管理费用并应对不断变化的宏观经济环境中的潜在投资损失，以维持未来的增长。25财年第一季建议交易区间：100至120美元。中性前景。