Technical Analysis – 24 January 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP US)

• Shares closed at a high since July 2024 above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 17.50 Target 19.50 Stop 16.50
  

DraftKings Inc. (DKNG US)

• Shares closed higher above 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and the 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 41.0 Target 45.0 Stop 39.0
  

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Grand Venture Technology Ltd. (GVTL SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.890, Target 0.950, Stop 0.860
  

Hong Leong Asia Ltd. (HLA SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.950 Target 1.01, Stop 0.920
  

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China Everbright Bank Co. Ltd. (6818 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 3.02, Target 3.30, Stop 2.88
  

China Minsheng Banking Corp. (1988 HK)

• Shares closed at a 152-week high with constructive volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 3.70 Target 4.10, Stop 3.50
  

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GE Aerospace (GE)

• 4Q24 Adjusted Revenue: $9.88B, +16.0% YoY, beat estimates by $410M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.32, beat estimates by $0.28
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects adjusted revenue growth to be in low double digits; expected adjusted EPS to be between $5.10 to $5.45, midpoint of $5.275 above consensus of $5.26; Expects operating profit to be between $7.8bn to $8.2bn; Expects adjusted free cash flow to be between $6.3bn to $6.8bn, midpoint of $6.55bn above consensus of $6.29.
  
• Comment: GE Aerospace delivered robust results and issued an optimistic outlook for FY25, citing significant progress in addressing supply chain challenges that had previously constrained jet engine production. Production of LEAP engines, which power narrowbody aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, is forecasted to grow by 15%–20% this year, rebounding from a 10% year-on-year decline in 2024. Key suppliers are now delivering over 90% of committed volumes, a marked improvement from approximately 50% a year ago. Additionally, the company has implemented contingency plans to mitigate risks related to potential trade wars, following tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. GE Aerospace has been in regular communication with the Trump administration and remains optimistic that the president’s focus on innovation and manufacturing will benefit both the company and the broader industry in the long term. The company also announced plans to repurchase $7 billion of stock in 2025 and increase the dividend by 30%. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $190 to $220. Positive Outlook.
  

GE航空 (GE) GE航空 (GE)

• 24财年第四季度调整后营收：98.8亿美元，同比增长16.0%，超出预期4.1亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季度Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.32美元，超出预期0.28美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计调整后营收增长为低双位数；预计调整后每股盈利为5.10至5.45美元，中点5.275美元高于市场预期的5.26美元；预计营业利润为78亿至82亿美元；预计调整后自由现金流为63亿至68亿美元，中点65.5亿美元高于市场预期的62.9亿美元。
  
• 短评：GE航空航天部门表现强劲，并对25财年发布了乐观展望，指出在解决此前制约喷气发动机生产的供应链挑战方面取得了显著进展。为空中客车和波音窄体飞机提供动力的LEAP发动机产量预计今年将增长15%至20%，较24年同比下降10%有所反弹。关键供应商目前的交付量已超过承诺量的90%，较一年前的约50%有明显改善。此外，公司已实施应急计划以缓解与潜在贸易战相关的风险，此前美国总统特朗普曾发出关税威胁。GE航空航天部门与特朗普政府保持定期沟通，并对总统关注创新和制造业的长期影响持乐观态度，认为这将有利于公司及整个行业。公司还宣布计划在25年回购70亿美元股票，并将股息提高30%。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：190至220美元。积极前景。
  

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $13.7B, +4.9% YoY, beat estimates by $280M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.86, beat estimates by $0.20
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects adjusted loss per share to be between $0.20 to $0.40, midpoint of $0.30 below consensus of a net loss per share of $0.06; expects unit costs, excluding fuel, to rise in the low-single-digit percentage points; expects capacity to decline between 2.0% to growing flat YoY; expects adjusted operating margin to be between 0% – 1%.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect adjusted EPS to be between $1.70 to $2.70, midpoint of $2.20 below consensus of $2.45; expects CASM excluding fuel to be up mid-single digits.
  
• Comment: American Airlines Group reported strong financial results but issued a weaker-than-expected outlook for 1Q25 and FY25. The airline anticipates unit costs, excluding fuel, to rise in the low-single-digit percentage range in the first quarter of 2025, driven by reduced capacity—expected to decline by up to 2% year-over-year—a higher reliance on smaller regional jets, and the impact of new labor agreements finalized last year. This cautious guidance contrasts with peers such as United Airlines and Delta Airlines, which delivered outlooks more in line with market expectations. The mixed forecast may reflect broader trends in demand and rising fuel costs. According to the International Air Transport Association, global average jet fuel prices have surged 12% over the past month, potentially increasing operating costs across the industry. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $15 to $19. Neutral Outlook.
  

美国航空(AAL)

• 24财年第四季营收： 137亿美元，同比增长4.9%，超出预期2.8亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利： 0.86美元，超出预期0.20美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计调整后每股亏损为0.20至0.40美元，中点0.30美元低于市场预期的每股亏损0.06美元；预计除燃料外的单位成本将上升低个位数百分比；预计运力将同比下降2.0%至持平；预计调整后运营利润率在0%至1%之间。
  
• 25财年指引：预计调整后每股盈利为1.70至2.70美元，中点2.20美元低于市场预期的2.45美元；预计除燃料外的单位成本将上升中个位数百分比。
  
• 短评：美国航空集团报告了强劲的财务业绩，但对25财年第一季度和全年的展望弱于预期。该航空公司预计，25财年第一季度除燃料外的单位成本将上升低个位数百分比，主要原因是运力下降（预计同比下降高达2%）、对小型支线飞机的依赖增加以及去年达成的新劳工协议的影响。这一谨慎的展望与联合航空和达美航空等同行形成对比，后者的展望更符合市场预期。这一混合预测可能反映了需求放缓和燃料成本上升的广泛趋势。根据国际航空运输协会的数据，过去一个月全球平均航空燃油价格上涨了12%，可能推高整个行业的运营成本。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：15至19美元。积极前景。
  

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $4.01B, -1.7% YoY, beat estimates by $140M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.30, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $3.75bn to $4.06bn, midpoint of $3.88bn above consensus of $3.85bn; Expects GAAP EPS to be between $0.94 to $1.16, midpoint of $1.05 below consensus of $1.17.
  
• Comment: Texas Instruments reported solid results but issued a mixed outlook for 1Q25, citing sluggish chip demand and rising manufacturing costs. While the company expects modest growth in the current quarter, its earnings forecast fell significantly below market expectations. Management attributed the profit challenges to higher manufacturing expenses, with a significant portion of sales driven by the industrial equipment and automotive sectors. Demand in industrial markets remains weak, particularly in automation and energy infrastructure, while growth in Asia’s automotive market has not been strong enough to offset global weaknesses. Elevated inventory levels, stemming from a cyclical downturn in demand for automotive and industrial chips, continue to weigh on performance. However, other end markets—including personal electronics, communication equipment, and enterprise systems—are showing early signs of recovery. Geographically, the automotive market remains soft in Europe, the U.S., and Japan. Despite these pressures, Texas Instruments is prioritizing long-term growth by investing in U.S. facility upgrades to enhance cost efficiency over time. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $170 to $200. Negative Outlook.
  

德州仪器公司 (TXN)

• 24财年第四季度营收： 40.1亿美元，同比下降1.7%，超出预期1.4亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季度GAAP每股盈利： 1.30美元，超出预期0.01美元
  
• 25财年第1季指引：预计收入为37.5亿至40.6亿美元，中位数38.8亿美元高于市场预期的38.5亿美元；预计GAAP每股收益为0.94至1.16美元，中位数1.05美元低于市场预期的1.17美元。
  
• 短评：德州仪器公布了稳健的业绩，但对2025年第1季度的展望表现出喜忧参半，原因是芯片需求疲软和制造成本上升。尽管公司预计本季度将实现温和增长，但其盈利预测显著低于市场预期。管理层将利润压力归因于更高的制造费用，同时工业设备和汽车领域占销售额的主要份额。工业市场需求依然疲软，特别是在自动化和能源基础设施领域，而亚洲汽车市场的增长不足以抵消全球的疲软。高库存水平——源于汽车和工业芯片需求的周期性下降——继续拖累表现。然而，个人电子产品、通信设备和企业系统等其他终端市场显示出复苏的早期迹象。从地域上看，欧洲、美国和日本的汽车市场仍然疲软。尽管面临这些压力，德州仪器正优先投资美国设施升级，以长期提高成本效率。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：170至200美元。负面前景 。
  

Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $2.41B, +24.9% YoY, beat estimates by $170M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.21, beat estimates by $0.42
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects worldwide da Vinci procedures to increase approximately 13% to 16% in 2025 as compared to 2024. Worldwide da Vinci procedure growth was 17% in 2024 as compared to 2023. Non-GAAP gross profit margin to be within a range of 67% and 68% of net revenue in 2025, compared to 69.1% in 2024 (does not include any potential impact of new tariffs on our business, which could be material). Non-GAAP operating expense growth to be within a range of 10% to 15% in 2025, compared to 10% in 2024.
  
• Comment: Intuitive Surgical surpassed Wall Street expectations for its fourth-quarter performance, driven by strong demand for its da Vinci surgical robots, which are widely used in minimally invasive procedures. The company reported an adjusted profit of US$2.21 per share, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of US$1.79, with revenue reaching US$2.41bn, ahead of estimates of US$2.25bn. Growth was fuelled by increased demand for surgical devices, particularly among older US patients who postponed non urgent procedures during the pandemic. Global da Vinci procedure volumes rose 18% YoY in Q4, and the company projects a further 13% to 16% increase in worldwide da Vinci procedures in 2025 compared to 2024. For FY25, Intuitive expects non-GAAP gross profit margins of 67%-68% and operating expense growth of 10%-15%. To strengthen its European presence, Intuitive is acquiring distributors of its da Vinci and Ion surgical robots in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Malta, and San Marino, with the deal expected to close in 2026. This integration into Intuitive’s existing European operations, which already include key markets like Germany, aims to improve customer access to minimally invasive care and enhance understanding of regional needs. The acquisition supports Intuitive’s plans to launch its latest surgical robot, da Vinci 5, in Europe, despite challenges in the region’s stressed capital markets. Procedure growth remains strong in markets like Italy, positioning the company for continued success. However, President Trump’s recent executive orders, which repeal Biden-era healthcare directives, pose potential risks. These orders threaten coverage for over 20 million Americans by reducing Medicaid funding, Affordable Care Act subsidies, and eligibility, potentially increasing medical debt and healthcare costs, which may impact the broader healthcare landscape and demand for surgical devices. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $580 to $620. Neutral Outlook.
  

直觉外科公司 (ISRG)

• 24财年第四季度营收： 24.1亿美元，同比增长24.9%，超出预期1.7亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季度GAAP每股盈利：2.21美元，超出预期0.42美元
  
• 25财年指引：预计2025年全球达芬奇手术量将比2024年增长约13%至16%。2024年全球达芬奇手术量相比2023年增长了17%。2025年非GAAP毛利率预计在67%-68%之间，相比2024年的69.1%有所下降（不包括可能对业务产生重大影响的新关税）。2025年非GAAP运营费用增长预计在10%-15%之间，相比2024年的10%有所提高。
  
• 短评：直觉外科公司第四季度业绩超出华尔街预期，主要得益于对达芬奇手术机器人的强劲需求。这些机器人广泛用于微创手术。公司报告调整后每股收益为2.21美元，超出分析师预期的1.79美元，收入达24.1亿美元，高于预期的22.5亿美元。增长主要受到对手术设备需求的推动，尤其是在疫情期间推迟了非紧急手术的美国老年患者群体中。2024年第4季度全球达芬奇手术量同比增长18%，公司预计2025年全球手术量将进一步增长13%至16%。2025财年，直觉外科预计非GAAP毛利率将在67%-68%之间，运营费用增长在10%-15%之间。此外，为加强在欧洲的市场地位，直觉外科正在收购其在意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、马耳他和圣马力诺的达芬奇和Ion手术机器人分销商。预计该交易将在2026年完成，这将使这些业务整合到直觉外科现有的欧洲运营中，而这些运营已覆盖德国等主要市场。此举旨在改善客户对微创护理的获取，并加深公司对区域需求的理解。这一收购支持直觉外科计划在欧洲推出最新的手术机器人达芬奇5，尽管该地区资本市场压力较大。尽管存在一些挑战，公司在意大利等国家的手术量增长仍然强劲，为持续成功奠定了基础。然而，美国总统特朗普最近的行政命令可能带来潜在风险。这些命令废除了拜登时期的医疗保健政策，威胁到2000多万美国人的医疗保险覆盖范围，削减了医疗补助资金、《平价医疗法案》的补贴以及资格标准，可能导致医疗债务和医疗费用增加，这可能会影响整体医疗市场以及对手术设备的需求。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：580至620美元。中性前景。