Technical Analysis – 20 January 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Schlumberger N.V. (SLB US)

• Shares closed at a high since December 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 43.20 Target 47.20 Stop 41.20
  

Enbridge Inc. (ENB US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 44.2 Target 47.2 Stop 42.7
  

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Propnex Ltd. (PROP SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 1.02, Target 1.10, Stop 0.98
  

Rex International Holding Ltd. (REXI SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 50dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.140 Target 0.150, Stop 0.135
  

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Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd (2600 HK)

• Shares closed at a 1-month high above the 200dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 4.88, Target 5.26, Stop 4.69
  

China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378 HK)

• Shares closed at a 2-month high above the 5dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 12.4 Target 13.6, Stop 11.8
  

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $26.88B, +37.0% YoY, beat estimates by $890M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.24, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect about 37% to $25B to $25.8B
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue growth roughly midway between 20% and 30%.
  
• Comment: TSMC reported record quarterly profit, driven by surging AI chip demand, with net income rising 57% to US$11.4bn. Revenue grew 39% YoY to US$26.9bn, with a full year 2025 revenue forecast of 20% to 30% growth. The company is expanding with fabs in the US, Japan, Germany, and Taiwan, planning up to US$42bn in 2025 capital spending. The company invested record amounts in the US and Japan in 2024, with US investments reaching US$14.1bn, TSMC’s US plant in Arizona contributed significantly, driving total foreign direct investment to US$48.6bn. TSMC’s revenue continues to reflect strong demand for its chips used by clients like Apple and Nvidia. However, TSMC will remain challenged by US export restrictions on China and uncertainty about potential tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $200 to $225. Neutral Outlook.
  

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM)

• 24财年第四季营收：268.8亿美元，同比增长37.0%，超出预期8.9亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：2.24美元，超出预期0.01美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计营收增长约37%，达到250亿至258亿美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计营收增长约在20%至30%之间。
  
• 短评：台积电公布了创纪录的季度利润，主要得益于人工智能芯片需求的激增，净利润增长57%，达到114亿美元。营收同比增长39%，达到269亿美元，预计2025年全年营收将增长20%至30%。公司正在美国、日本、德国和台湾扩建工厂，计划在2025年投入高达420亿美元的资本支出。公司在2024年对美国和日本的投资创下历史新高，其中在美国的投资达到141亿美元，台积电位于亚利桑那州的工厂贡献显著，推动总外国直接投资达到486亿美元。台积电的营收继续反映出苹果、英伟达等客户对其芯片的强劲需求。然而，台积电将继续面临美国对中国的出口限制以及特朗普当选总统后可能出现的关税不确定性的挑战。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：200至225美元。中性前景。
  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $13.87B, +22.5% YoY, beat estimates by $1.41B
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $11.95, beat estimates by $3.60
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Dividend: Declared $3/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous
  
• Comment: Goldman Sachs reported its highest quarterly profit in over three years, driven by a 24% increase in investment banking fees and strong trading performance. Fourth-quarter profit reached US$4.11bn, or US$11.95 per share, beating estimates. Equity and debt underwriting surged by 98% and 51%, respectively. Total revenue for 2024 rose 16% to US$53.51bn, with wealth and asset management up 8% and trading revenues also climbing. The firm continues to scale back consumer operations. Goldman achieved record revenue in its Asia-Pacific wealth unit in 2024, driven by ultra-wealthy clients seeking diversification amid volatile markets and geopolitical tensions. Wealth management assets in the region increased 40% in two years, and revenue doubled over five years. China, including Hong Kong, accounts for up to 75% of Goldman’s regional business. The bank plans to expand its adviser headcount, particularly to serve Chinese clients. Meanwhile, asset and wealth management revenue rose to US$4.72bn in Q4, with total client assets at US$1.6tn. However, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant concern with increasing global diversification among wealthy Chinese clients. Looking ahead, we anticipate the bank to achieve better deal flows from the anticipated interest rate cuts alongside the inauguration of pro-business President-elect Donald Trump. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $570 to $630. Positive Outlook.
  

高盛集团 (GS)

• 24财年第四季营收： 138.7亿美元，同比增长22.5%，超出预期14.1亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利： 11.95美元，超出预期3.60美元。
  
• 24财年第四季分红： 宣布每股季度分红3美元，与之前持平。
  
• 25财年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评：高盛公布了三年多来的最高季度利润，得益于投资银行业务收入增长24%以及强劲的交易表现。第四季度利润达到41.1亿美元，每股11.95美元，超出预期。股票和债券承销分别增长98%和51%。2024年总营收增长16%至535.1亿美元，财富管理业务增长8%，交易收入也攀升。公司继续缩减消费者业务。高盛在亚太地区的财富管理业务在2024年实现了创纪录的收入，这得益于超高净值客户在市场波动和地缘政治紧张局势下寻求多元化投资。该地区的财富管理资产两年内增长了40%，收入五年内翻了一番。中国（包括香港）占高盛地区业务的75%左右。该行计划扩大顾问人数，尤其是为中国客户服务。与此同时，资产和财富管理收入在第四季度升至47.2亿美元，客户总资产达到1.6万亿美元。然而，地缘政治不确定性仍然是一个重大担忧，富裕的中国客户正在增加全球多元化投资。展望未来，我们预计该行将从预期降息以及亲商的当选总统上任带来的交易流增加中受益。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：570至630美元。积极前景。
  

Morgan Stanley (MS)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $16.2B, +25.7% YoY, beat estimates by $1.17B
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.22, beat estimates by $0.53
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Morgan Stanley surpassed fourth-quarter estimates, driven by equities trading revenue surging 51% to US$3.3bn and fixed income revenue rising 35% to US$1.9bn, benefiting from heightened client activity and US election volatility. Overall revenue grew 26% to US$16.22bn, while net income doubled to US$3.72bn. Wealth management revenue rose 13% due to higher asset levels and fees. Investment banking revenue increased 25%, supported by advisory and equity capital markets. The results highlight strong trading performance, with equities and fixed income outperforming expectations. As the US market continues to attract global investors, we anticipate continued strength in its equities trading business. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $120 to $150. Positive Outlook.
  

摩根士丹利 (MS)

• 24财年第四季营收：162亿美元，同比增长25.7%，超出预期11.7亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：2.22美元，超出预期0.53美元。
  
• 25财年指引：未提供具体指引。
  
• 短评：摩根士丹利第四季度业绩超出预期，主要得益于股票交易收入飙升51%至33亿美元，以及固定收益收入增长35%至19亿美元，这得益于客户活动增加和美国大选带来的市场波动。总营收增长26%至162.2亿美元，净利润增长一倍至37.2亿美元。财富管理业务营收增长13%，主要由于资产水平和费用增加。投资银行业务营收增长25%，得益于咨询和股本市场业务的支持。这些结果凸显了强劲的交易表现，其中股票和固定收益业务表现优于预期。随着美国市场继续吸引全球投资者，我们预计其股票交易业务将继续保持强劲。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：120至150美元。积极前景。
  

Bank of America Corp (BAC)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $25.3B, +15.2% YoY, beat estimates by $170M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.82, beat estimates by $0.05
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects NII of $14.5B to $14.6B in the first quarter, higher than analysts’ expectation of $14.36B. It expects NII to climb in the fourth quarter to a range of $15.5B to $15.7B.
  
• Comment: Bank of America reported a strong fourth quarter, with net income rising to US$6.7bn, or US$0.82 per share, beating expectations. Revenue from trading rose 10% to US$25.3B, driven by increased fixed income and equity activity, while wealth management revenue climbed 15%, reaching US$6bn. Client balances rose 12% to a record US$4.3bn. Investment banking fees surged 44% to US$1.7bn, reflecting a rebound in mergers and acquisitions. Net interest income grew 3% to US$14.4bn, with further growth expected in 2025 due to loan growth and higher-yielding assets. In FY25, Bank of America expects NII of US$14.5bn to US$14.6bn in the first quarter and expects NII to climb to US$15.5bn to US$15.7bn in the fourth quarter. This expected increase in NII can be attributable to a steeper yield curve, the reduction in interest rates which would require less interest paid for customers deposits and the repricing of fixed-rate assets and securities portfolios. Bank of America will continue to benefit from higher fees from increased volatility in equity markets, improved deal flow and more interest income. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $45 to $50. Positive Outlook.
  

美国银行 (BAC)

• 24财年第四季营收：253亿美元，同比增长15.2%，超出预期1.7亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利： 0.82美元，超出预期0.05美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计第一季度净利息收入为145亿至146亿美元，高于分析师预计的143.6亿美元。预计第四季度净利息收入将攀升至155亿至157亿美元区间。
  
• 短评：美国银行公布了强劲的第四季度业绩，净收入升至67亿美元，即每股0.82美元，超出预期。 交易收入增长10%至253亿美元，得益于固定收益和股票活动的增加，而财富管理收入攀升15%至60亿美元。 客户资产余额增长12%至创纪录的4.3万亿美元。 投资银行费用飙升44%至17亿美元，反映出并购活动的回升。 净利息收入增长3%至144亿美元，预计2025年将进一步增长，原因是贷款增长和收益率更高的资产。 美国银行预计2025年第一季度净利息收入为145-146亿美元，预计第四季度将攀升至155-157亿美元。 预计净利息收入的增长可归因于收益率曲线陡峭、降低存款利率所需的利息减少以及固定利率资产和证券投资组合的重新定价。 美国银行将继续受益于股市波动性增加、交易流改善和利息收入增加带来的更高费用。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：45至50美元。积极前景。
  

UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $100.8B, +6.8% YoY, miss estimates by $930M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.81, beat estimates by $0.07
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $450bn – $455bn, midpoint of $452.5n below consensus of $455.64bn; expects adjusted EPS to be between $29.50 to $30.0, midpoint of $29.75 below consensus of $29.86.
  
• Comment: UnitedHealth Group delivered mixed quarterly results, highlighting challenges in its health insurance segment. Revenue from the insurance division came in at $74.1 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $75.2 billion. The company also reported higher-than-expected annual medical costs, with its medical cost ratio climbing to 85.5%, up from 83.2% in 2023. This marks nearly two years of elevated costs driven by strong demand for healthcare services, particularly under government-backed Medicare plans for older adults. The results follow last month’s tragic killing of Brian Thompson, CEO of the group’s insurance unit, adding to the pressures facing the company. Management anticipates that the elevated medical cost ratio will remain a headwind into 2025, citing factors such as hospital billing practices and increased use of high-cost drugs as key drivers of rising expenses. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $470 to $530. Negative Outlook.
  

联合健康集团 (UNH)

• 24财年第四季营收： 1008亿美元，同比增长6.8%，低于预期9.3亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：6.81美元，超出预期0.07美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计营收将在4500亿至4550亿美元之间，中值为4525亿美元，低于市场普遍预期的455.64亿美元；预计调整后每股收益将在29.50美元至30.00美元之间，中值为29.75美元，低于市场普遍预期的29.86美元。
  
• 短评：联合健康集团公布了喜忧参半的季度业绩，凸显了其健康保险业务面临的挑战。保险部门的营收为741亿美元，低于市场预期的752亿美元。公司还报告了高于预期的年度医疗成本，医疗成本率攀升至85.5%，高于2023年的83.2%。这标志着医疗成本连续两年上升，主要原因是医疗服务需求强劲，尤其是政府支持的老年人医疗保险计划。上个月，集团保险部门首席执行官布莱恩·汤普森遇害，进一步加剧了公司的压力。管理层预计，医疗成本率居高不下将在2025年继续成为阻力，原因是医院账单做法和高成本药物使用增加等因素导致支出不断上升。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：470至530美元。负面前景。