Technical Analysis – 27 September 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU US)

• Shares closed at 52-week high with a surge in volume. 5wEMA just crossed the 20wEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 80 Target 90, Stop 75

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 126 Target 136, Stop 121

^ Back To Top

Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.35, Target 1.45, Stop 1.30

UMS Integration Ltd. (USMH SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.06 Target 1.12, Stop 1.03

^ Back To Top

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA with an increase in volume.
• MACD is positive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 418, Target 454, Stop 400

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK)

• Shares closed above the 52-week high above the 5wEMA with a surge in volume. The 20wEMA crossed the 50wEMA.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 95, Target 103, Stop 91

^ Back To Top

Accenture PLC (ACN)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $16.4B, +2.6% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.79, beat estimates by $0.02
• 4Q24 Dividend: Accenture declares $1.48/share quarterly dividend, 14.7% increase from prior dividend of $1.29; forward yield 1.76%; payable Nov. 15; for shareholders of record Oct 10.
• 4Q24 Share buyback: The company’s board of director has approved $4.0bn in additional share repurchase authority, bringing Accenture’s total outstanding authority to approximately $6.7bn.
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect 1Q25 revenue to be between $16.85bn to $17.45bn, midpoint of $17.15bn vs consensus of $16.94bn. FY2025 Guidance: Expect revenue growth of 3% to 6% vs a consensus of 5.92%; Expect GAAP EPS between $12.55 to $12.91, midpoint of $12.73 vs consensus of $12.87; Expect GAAP operating margin between 15.6% to 15.8%.
• Comment: Accenture delivered strong results and provided better-than-expected guidance for 1Q25, driven by continued high demand for its services that help businesses adopt generative AI technology. The company’s generative AI segment has been growing faster than its other core businesses, as organizations increasingly turn to automation to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Accenture reported $900mn in generative AI revenue for FY24, a sharp increase from $100mn in FY23. Bookings have also shown robust QoQ growth over the past year, totaling $3mn. Management further noted that businesses are cutting IT expenses to redirect funds toward generative AI, a trend they expect to drive growth over the next decade. Accenture also announced a $4bn share buyback and plans to invest $3bn in acquisitions in FY25. However, the company maintained a cautious outlook for FY25, anticipating a continued conservative business environment into next year. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $340 to $390. Positive Outlook.

埃森哲 (ACN)

• 24财年第四季营收：164亿美元，同比增幅2.6%，超预期2,000万美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.79美元，超预期0.02美元
• 24财年第四季股息：埃森哲宣布派发每股1.48美元的季度股息，较之前每股1.29美元的股息增长14.7%；远期股息率为1.76%；11月15日付息日；10月10日为股东登记日。
• 24财年第四季股票回购：公司董事会已批准40亿美元的额外股票回购授权，使埃森哲的未偿授权总额达到约67亿美元。
• 25财年第一季指引：预计第一季度营收将在168.5亿美元至174.5亿美元之间，中间值为171.5亿美元，而市场预期为169.4亿美元。2025财年指引：预计营收增长3%至6%，市场普遍预期为5.92%；预计GAAP每股收益在12.55美元至12.91美元之间，中间值为12.73美元，而市场预期为12.87美元；预计GAAP营业利润率在15.6%至15.8%之间。
• 短评：埃森哲提供了强劲的业绩，并提供了好于预期的第一季度指导，这得益于对其帮助企业采用生成式人工智能技术的服务的持续高需求。随着企业越来越多地转向自动化以降低成本和提高效率，该公司的生成式人工智能部门的增长速度超过了其他核心业务。埃森哲报告称，该公司在24财年实现了9亿美元的可生成人工智能收入，较23财年的1亿美元大幅增长。在过去的一年里，预订量也显示出强劲的季度增长，总计300万美元。管理层进一步指出，企业正在削减IT开支，将资金转向生成式人工智能，他们预计这一趋势将在未来十年推动增长。埃森哲还宣布了40亿美元的股票回购计划，并计划在25财年投资30亿美元进行收购。然而，该公司对25财年的前景保持谨慎，预计明年将继续保持保守的商业环境。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：340至390美元。积极前景。

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $79.69B, +1.0% YoY, miss estimates by $340M
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $5.29, beat estimates by $0.23
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided. Expect to add 26 net new buildings in FY25.
• Comment: Costco Wholesale missed market expectations for its fourth-quarter revenue, reporting US$79.70bn, slightly below analysts’ estimate of US$79.97bn. The miss was attributed to cautious consumer spending on higher-priced items and lower gasoline prices. While demand for groceries remains strong, spending on furniture, home goods, and electronics has been inconsistent, with more customers seeking deals. Despite a slowdown in e-commerce growth to 18.9% from 20.7% in the previous quarter, net income surpassed estimates, reaching US$5.29 per share, due to a 40-basis point increase in gross margins. Same-store sales grew 5.4%, down from 6.6% in the previous quarter, partly due to lower gasoline prices. Costco announced a membership fee increase, effective 1 September. Costco has also implemented various measures to prepare for potential strikes at US ports. The company is pre-shipping holiday goods and exploring alternative ports to mitigate disruptions. Concerns are rising as the International Longshoremen’s Association’s 45,000 members may strike on 1 October, potentially closing 36 ports that handle over half of US ocean trade, including essential goods like food, prescription drugs, and construction materials. Despite having taken multiple steps to minimize impact on Costco, the extent of disruption remains uncertain. A prolonged strike could lead to shortages of items like bananas and coffee, higher grocery prices, and lost export sales for key agricultural products. With inflationary pressures still hurting consumers, there might be a continued shift toward more budget-friendly options, impacting sales of higher-priced goods. Despite these challenges, Costco’s strong demand for groceries and strategic planning for potential disruptions demonstrate its resilience. However, the uncertainty surrounding consumer spending, e-commerce growth, and the looming port strikes may pose hurdles to its profitability in the coming months. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $850 to $920. Neutral Outlook.

好市多 (COST)

• 24财年第四季营收：796.9亿美元，同比增幅1.0%，逊预期3.4亿美元
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：5.29美元，超预期0.23美元
• 25财年指引：不提供指导。预计在25财年将新增26栋建筑。
• 短评：好市多第四季度营收低于市场预期，为79.7亿美元，略低于分析师预期的799.7亿美元。这一数字下降的原因是消费者对高价商品的支出谨慎，以及汽油价格下跌。尽管对食品杂货的需求依然强劲，但家具、家居用品和电子产品的消费却不稳定，越来越多的顾客寻求打折。尽管电子商务增长从上一季度的20.7%放缓至18.9%，但由于毛利率提高了40个基点，净利润超过了预期，达到每股5.29美元。同店销售增长5.4%，低于上一季度的6.6%，部分原因是汽油价格下跌。好市多宣布从9月1日起上调会员费。好市多还采取了各种措施，为美国港口可能发生的罢工做准备。该公司正在提前发运假日商品，并探索其他港口以减轻中断。国际码头工人协会的4.5万名会员可能会在10月1日举行罢工，这可能会导致36个港口关闭，这些港口处理了美国一半以上的海洋贸易，包括食品、处方药和建筑材料等必需品。尽管已经采取了多种措施来尽量减少对好市多的影响，但破坏的程度仍然不确定。长期罢工可能导致香蕉和咖啡等商品短缺，食品价格上涨，以及主要农产品的出口销售损失。由于通胀压力仍在伤害消费者，消费者可能会继续转向更亲预算的选择，从而影响高价商品的销售。尽管面临这些挑战，好市多对食品杂货的强劲需求和对潜在中断的战略规划表明了它的弹性。然而，围绕消费者支出、电子商务增长和迫在眉睫的港口罢工的不确定性可能会对其未来几个月的盈利能力构成障碍。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：850至920美元。中性前景。