Technical Analysis – 6 September 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Tesla Inc (TSLA US)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 227.0 Target 250.0, Stop 215.5

Southwest Airlines Co (LUV US)

• Shares closed at an 5-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
• Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
• Long – Entry 29.8, Target 32.8, Stop 28.3

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Seatrium Ltd (SMM SP)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.56, Target 1.65, Stop 1.50

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 10.92 Target 11.48, Stop 10.64

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People’s Insurance Co Group of China Ltd (1339 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 3.01, Target 3.25, Stop 2.89

PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd (2328 HK)

• Shares closed at a 5-month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 10.44, Target 11.28, Stop 10.02

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NIO Inc (NIO)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $2.4B, +98.8% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: -$0.30, in-line with estimates
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect deliveries of vehicles to be between 61,000 to 63,000 units, representing an increase of approximately 10.0% to 13.7% YoY. Total revenue to be between RMB19,109M (US$2,630M) and RMB19,669M (US$2,707M), representing an approximate 0.2% to 3.2% YoY growth.
• Comment: Nio delivered second quarter revenue of 17.45bn yuan (US$2.40bn), up 98.9% YoY, missing estimates. The company narrowed its second quarter loss by 16.7% to 5.05bn yuan on higher sales. Vehicle sales more than doubled to 15.7bn yuan, with a sales margin improving to 12.2% from 6.2% a year earlier. Revenue from other sales, including accessories and power solutions, grew 11.3% to 1.8bn yuan. Loss per share dropped to 2.21 yuan from 3.70 yuan in the prior year. Nio delivered 57,373 premium electric vehicles in Q2, securing over 40% of China’s high-end EV market. Nio expects record deliveries of 61,000 to 63,000 vehicles in the third quarter, with revenue forecast between 19.1bn and 19.7bn yuan. Despite benefiting from China’s stimulus program for vehicle purchases, Nio faces ongoing challenges from price-sensitive customers and fierce competition, which will continue to affect its gross profit margins. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $4.0to $5.5. Neutral Outlook.

蔚来汽车 (NIO)

• 24财年第二季营收：24.0亿美元，同比增幅98.8%，逊预期4,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.3美元，符合预期
• 24财年第三季指引：预计汽车交付量将在6.1万至6.3万辆之间，同比增长约10.0%至13.7%。总收入将在191.09亿元人民币(26.30亿美元)至1,966.9亿元人民币(27.07亿美元)之间，同比增长约0.2%至3.2%。
• 短评：蔚来汽车第二季度收入为人民币174.5亿元(合24亿美元)，同比增长98.9%，低于预期。由于销售额增加，该公司第二季度的亏损缩小了16.7%，至50.5亿元人民币。汽车销售额翻了一番多，达到人民币157亿元，销售利润率从去年同期的6.2%提高到12.2%。包括配件和电源解决方案在内的其他销售收入增长11.3%，至人民币18亿元。每股亏损从上年的3.70元降至2.21元。蔚来汽车在第二季度交付了57,373辆高端电动汽车，占据了中国高端电动汽车市场40%以上的份额。蔚来汽车预计，第三季度交付量将达到创纪录的6.1万至6.3万辆，营收预计在191亿至197亿元人民币之间。尽管受益于中国的购车刺激计划，蔚来汽车仍面临来自对价格敏感的客户和激烈竞争的持续挑战，这将继续影响其毛利率。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：4.0至5.5美元。中性前景。

Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $13.07B, +47.2% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.24, beat estimates by $0.03
• 3Q24 Dividend: Declared quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be approximately $14.0B including contribution from VMware, an increase of 51% YoY, vs $14.04B consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of about 64% of projected revenue.
• Comment: Broadcom delivered third-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, reporting earnings per share of US$1.24, vs. US$1.20 consensus and revenue of US$13.07bn, vs. US$12.97bn consensus. However, it forecasted Q4 revenue slightly below Wall Street estimates, projecting around US$14bn vs the expected US$14.04bn. Despite a rise in AI chip orders, there was weakness in broadband demand. Broadband revenue dropped by 49%, and non-AI networking by 41%, offsetting AI segment gains. The company posted a US$1.88bn net loss, driven by a US$4.5bn tax charge from an intellectual property transfer. Despite the loss, Broadcom continues to benefit from AI growth, with projected AI-related sales of US$12bn in fiscal 2024, up from a previous estimate of US$11bn. Semiconductor sales rose 5% to US$7.27bn, while infrastructure software, largely from VMware, contributed US$5.8bn in sales. Looking forward, AI adoption and VMware growth will fuel revenue, though weakness in other segments may limit overall gains. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $130 to $165. Neutral Outlook.

博通 (AVGO)

• 24财年第三季营收：130.7亿美元，同比增幅47.2%，超预期1.1亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.24美元，超预期0.03美元
• 24财年第三季股息：宣布季度股息为每股0.53美元
• 24财年指引：预计收入约为140亿美元，其中包括来自VMware的贡献，同比增长51%，而市场预期为140.4亿美元。调整后的EBITDA约为预计收入的64%。
• 短评：博通公布的第三季度业绩超出了华尔街的预期，每股收益为1.24美元，而市场预期为1.20美元，收入为130.7亿美元，而市场预期为129.7亿美元。然而，它预测第四季度收入略低于华尔街的预期，预计约为140亿美元，而预期为140.4亿美元。尽管人工智能芯片订单增加，但宽带需求疲软。宽带收入下降49%，非人工智能网络收入下降41%，抵消了人工智能部分的增长。该公司公布了18.8亿美元的净亏损，原因是一项知识产权转让产生了45亿美元的税收支出。尽管出现了亏损，但博通仍继续受益于人工智能的增长，预计2024财年人工智能相关销售额将达到120亿美元，高于此前估计的110亿美元。半导体销售额增长5%，达到72.7亿美元，而基础设施软件(主要来自VMware)贡献了58亿美元的销售额。展望未来，人工智能的采用和VMware的增长将推动收入增长，尽管其他领域的疲软可能会限制整体收益。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：130至165美元。中性前景。

Science Applications International Corp (SAIC)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $1.82B, +2.2% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.05, beat estimates by $0.20
• FY25 Guidance: Raise its adjusted diluted EPS to be $8.10 to $8.30, up from its previous outlook of $8.00 to $8.20 and above the $8.07 analyst consensus. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue forecast of $7.35B to $7.50B.
• Comment: Science Applications International Corporation exceeded expectations in its second-quarter results, reporting adjusted earnings per share of US$2.05, surpassing the US$1.85 consensus. Revenue grew 2.2% YoY to US$1.82bn, slightly above forecasts. The company saw strong performance in its Defense and Intelligence segment, with revenue up 2% to US$1.42bn, and its Civilian segment, also up 2% to US$403mn. SAIC generated US$241mn in free cash flow, up 67% YoY, and repurchased US$201mn in shares. The company raised its fiscal 2025 EPS guidance to US$8.10 to US$8.30 and reaffirmed its full-year revenue forecast of US$7.35bn to US$7.50bn. With a backlog of US$22.9bn, SAIC’s performance and business growth position it for a strong second half of the year. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $125 to $145. Positive Outlook.

科学应用国际 (SAIC)

• 25财年第二季营收：18.2亿美元，同比增幅2.2%，超预期3,000万美元
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.05美元，超预期0.20美元
• 25财年指引：将调整后的摊薄每股收益上调至8.10美元至8.30美元，高于此前预期的8.00美元至8.20美元，也高于分析师预期的8.07美元。该公司重申其全年收入预期为73.5亿美元至70.5亿美元。
• 短评：科学应用国际公司第二季度业绩超出预期，报告调整后每股收益为2.05美元，超过了1.85美元的普遍预期。营收同比增长2.2%，至18.2亿美元，略高于预期。该公司在国防和情报部门表现强劲，收入增长2%至14.2亿美元，民用部门收入也增长2%至4.03亿美元。公司实现了2.41亿美元的自由现金流，同比增长67%，并回购了2.01亿美元的股票。该公司将其25财年每股收益预期上调至81美元至83美元，并重申其全年收入预期为73.5亿美元至75亿美元。凭借229亿美元的积压订单，公司集团的业绩和业务增长将使其在今年下半年表现强劲。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：125至145美元。积极前景。