Technical Analysis – 29 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 65.0 Target 69.0, Stop 63.0

V.F. Corp. (VFC US)

• Shares closed at a high since Jan 2024. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 18.0, Target 20.0, Stop 17.0

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Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 10.70, Target 11.30, Stop 10.40

Civmec Ltd. (CVL SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.910 Target 0.970, Stop 0.880

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Ltd (3692 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 200wEMA with rising volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 20, Target 22, Stop 19

China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co Ltd (966 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA with an increase in volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 9.60, Target 10.42, Stop 9.19

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Li Auto Inc (LI)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $4.40B, +10.6% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.20, beat estimates by $0.01
• 3Q24 Guidance: Deliveries of vehicles to be between 145,000 and 155,000 vehicles, representing an increase of 38.0% to 47.6% YoY. Total revenues to be between RMB39.4bn (US$5.4bn) and RMB42.2bn (US$5.8bn) vs consensus of $5.51bn, representing an increase of 13.7% to 21.6% YoY.
• Comment: Li Auto delivered mixed results for 2Q24, with vehicle sales reaching $4.2 billion, marking an 8.4% year-over-year increase. However, investors were disappointed, having anticipated a more significant boost in sales following the launch of the Li MEGA in March. The company also faced pricing pressures due to intense market competition, leading to a decline in vehicle margins both year-over-year and sequentially. Although Li Auto expects improved margins and cash flow in the second half of the year, it continues to navigate uncertainties and headwinds from strong competition and a soft Chinese economy. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $15 to $20. Negative Outlook.

理想汽车 (LI)

• 24财年第二季营收：44亿美元，同比增长10.6%，逊预期2,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.2美元，超预期0.01美元
• 24财年第三季指引：汽车交付量在14.5万至15.5万辆之间，同比增长38.0%至47.6%。总收入预计在394亿元人民币（合54亿美元）至422亿元人民币（合58亿美元）之间，而市场预期为55.1亿美元，同比增长13.7%至21.6%。
• 短评：理想汽车在24年第二季度交出了喜忧参半的成绩单，车辆销售总额达到42亿美元，较去年同期增长8.4%。然而，投资者们对这一表现并不满意，此前他们曾预期在3月份推出理想MEGA后，销售会有更大的增长。此外，激烈的市场竞争也给理想汽车带来了定价压力，导致车辆毛利率同比和环比均有所下降。尽管理想汽车预计今年下半年的毛利率和现金流会有所改善，但它仍在努力应对来自激烈竞争和疲软中国经济的不确定性和逆风。24年第三季度建议交易区间：15至20美元。负面前景。

Kohl’s Corp (KSS)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $3.53B, -4.1% YoY, miss estimates by $120M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.59, beat estimates by $0.15
• FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales to decrease by 4% to 6%, compared with a decrease of 2% to 4% previously, and vs a consensus of a decrease of 1.96%; Expected adjusted EPS to be between $1.75 to $2.25, compared to $1.25 to $1.85 previously, and vs consensus of $1.49; expects comparable sales to decrease between 3% to 5%, compared with a decrease of 1% to 3% previously, vs consensus of a decrease of 2.09%.
• Comment: Kohl’s reported stronger-than-expected earnings despite weaker-than-anticipated sales, driven by the company’s focus on cost-cutting amid a challenging consumer environment and ongoing softness in its core business. While Kohl’s successfully attracted more new customers and saw an increase in overall transactions, consumer spending remained cautious, putting pressure on overall sales and overshadowing strong performances in key growth areas such as Sephora, home decor, gifting, and impulse buys. Looking ahead, the company forecasted a larger sales decline but projected higher profits for FY24, signaling plans for further cost reductions amid a difficult consumer landscape. Better expectations of future rate cuts may also help boost consumer spending. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $17.0 to $23.0. Neutral Outlook.

柯尔百货 (KSS)

• 24财年第二季营收：35.3亿美元，同比跌幅4.1%，逊预期1.2亿美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.59美元，超预期0.15美元
• 24财年指引：预计净销售额将下降4%至6%，而此前的预期为下降2%至4%，与共识预期的下降1.96%相比；预计调整后的每股收益将在1.75至2.25美元之间，而此前的预期为1.25至1.85美元，与共识预期的1.49美元相比；预计可比销售额将下降3%至5%，而此前的预期为下降1%至3%，与共识预期的下降2.09%相比。
• 短评：尽管销售额弱于预期，但柯尔公布的盈利强于预期，原因是该公司在充满挑战的消费环境及其核心业务持续疲软的情况下专注于削减成本。尽管柯尔成功吸引了更多新客户并实现整体交易增长，但消费者支出仍然谨慎，给整体销售带来压力，并掩盖了丝芙兰、家居装饰、礼品和冲动购买等关键增长领域的强劲表现。展望未来，该公司预计24财年的销售额将出现更大幅度的下降，但预计利润将上升，这表明该公司计划在艰难的消费环境下进一步降低成本。对未来降息的更好预期也可能有助于提振消费者支出。24年第三季度建议交易区间：17至23美元。中性前景。

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $30.04B, +122.4% YoY, beat estimates by $1.31B
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.68, beat estimates by $0.04
• 2Q25 Dividend: Nvidia declares a $0.01/share quarterly dividend, in line with the previous; forward yield 0.03%; payable 3^rd Oct; for shareholder of record 12^th Sept; ex-div 12 Sept.
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be $32.5bn vs consensus of $31.75bn, plus or minus 2%; Expect GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins to be 74.4% and 75.0% respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points; Expect GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses to be approx. $4.3bn to $3.0bn respectively; Expect GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expenses to be an income of approximately $350mn; Expect GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates to be 17%, plus or minus 1%.
• FY25 Guidance: Expect gross margins to be in the mid-70% range; expect operating expenses to grow in the mid-to upper-40% range.
• Comment: Nvidia reported strong results, with data center revenue surpassing expectations at $26.3 billion, compared to the $25.08 billion estimate. However, the company’s gross margin declined to 75.1% in 2Q25, down from 78.4% the previous quarter. Nvidia’s 3Q25 outlook fell short of market expectations, prompting investors to lower their forecasts. As the primary beneficiary of the ongoing artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia continues to see strong demand for its AI chips. The company anticipates an increase in total shipments over the next two quarters, driven by its current-generation Hopper chip. Demand for its next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, is also expected to be robust. Nvidia shipped samples of Blackwell during the quarter and made adjustments to improve manufacturing efficiency, indicating potential production challenges. Despite this, the company expects to generate several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue in 4Q25. While supply for Hopper is improving, Blackwell remains in short supply. Additionally, gaming revenue rose 16% year-over-year to $2.9 billion, exceeding market estimates of $2.7 billion. Nvidia also announced a $50 billion share buyback program. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $137. Positive Outlook.

英伟达 (NVDA)

• 25财年第二季营收：300.4亿美元，同比增幅122.4%，超预期13.1亿美元
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.68美元，超预期0.04美元
• 25财年第二季股息：公司宣布季度股息0.01美元/股，与之前一致；远期股息率为0.03%；10月3日为付息日；9月12日为股东登记日及除息日。
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收为325亿美元，高于市场预期的317.5亿美元，上下浮动2%；预计GAAP和Non-GAAP毛利率分别为74.4%和75.0%，上下浮动50个基点；预计GAAP和Non-GAAP运营费用分别约为43亿至30亿美元；预计GAAP和Non-GAAP其他收入和支出约为3.5亿美元；预计GAAP和Non-GAAP税率为17%，上下浮动1%。
• 25财年指引：预计毛利率在70%至80%中位数左右；预计运营费用将增长40%至40%以上。
• 短评：英伟达公布了强劲的业绩，数据中心收入超过预期，达到263亿美元，而此前的预期为250.8亿美元。然而，该公司的毛利率从上一季度的78.4%降至25年第二季度的75.1%。英伟达25年第三季度的前景低于市场预期，促使投资者下调了预期。作为人工智能热潮的主要受益者，英伟达的人工智能芯片需求持续强劲。该公司预计，在当前一代Hopper芯片的推动下，未来两个季度的总出货量将有所增加。预计其下一代人工智能芯片Blackwell的需求也将强劲。英伟达在本季度出货了Blackwell的样品，并进行了调整以提高生产效率，这表明了潜在的生产挑战。尽管如此，该公司预计在25年第四季度将在Blackwell产生数十亿美元的收入。虽然Hopper的供应正在改善，但Blackwell仍然供不应求。此外，游戏收入同比增长16%，达到29亿美元，超过市场预期的27亿美元。英伟达还宣布了一项500亿美元的股票回购计划。25财年年第三季度建议交易区间：100至137美元。积极前景。

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $963.87M, +31.7% YoY, beat estimates by $5.55M
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.04, beat estimates by $0.07
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $979.2M to $984.7M vs consensus of $1.01B and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 to $0.81 vs consensus of $0.96.
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $3,890M to $3,902.2M vs consensus of $3.96B and non-GAAP EPS of $3.61 to $3.65 vs consensus of $3.91
• Comment: Despite a July global outage caused by a faulty software update that disrupted internet services for 8.5 million Microsoft Windows devices and led to mass flight cancellations, CrowdStrike reported a 32% rise in second-quarter revenue to US$963.9mn, beating expectations US$958.6mn, and an adjusted profit per share of US$1.04 above expectations of US$0.97. The incident delayed some deals, although most remain in the pipeline. CrowdStrike reduced its revenue and profit forecasts following the setback and plans to bolster customer trust and accelerate platform adoption through a US$60mn customer support package in the second half. The importance of cybersecurity products is growing due to the surge in digital scams and high-profile attacks. Despite the impact of the recent incident, the cost for customers to switch providers could mitigate a larger effect. The company anticipates challenges for about a year but expects growth to reaccelerate later in 2024. While the current downturn and increased market share for rivals like SentinelOne and Palo Alto Networks may pose challenges, we believe the long-term impact of this incident on CrowdStrike’s results will be minimal. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $240 to $280. Neutral Outlook.

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

• 25财年第二季营收：9.6387亿美元，同比增幅31.7%，超预期555万美元
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.04美元，超预期0.07美元
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收为9.792亿美元至9.847亿美元，市场预期为10.1亿美元；Non-GAAP每股收益为0.80美元至0.81美元，市场预期为0.96美元。
• 25财年指引：预计收入38.9亿美元至39.022亿美元，市场预期为39.6亿美元；Non-GAAP每股收益3.61美元至3.65美元，市场预期为3.91美元
• 短评：尽管7月份软件更新故障导致850万微软Windows设备的互联网服务中断，从而导致大量航班取消，但CrowdStrike报告第二季度收入增长32%，达到9.639亿美元，超过预期的9.586亿美元，调整后每股利润为1.04美元，高于预期的0.97美元。这一事件推迟了一些交易，尽管大多数交易仍在筹备中。在遭遇挫折后，CrowdStrike下调了收入和利润预期，并计划在下半年通过6,000万美元的客户支持计划来增强客户信任并加速平台的采用。由于数字诈骗和高调攻击的激增，网络安全产品的重要性正在上升。尽管最近的事件造成了影响，但客户更换供应商的成本可能会减轻更大的影响。该公司预计挑战将持续一年左右，但预计增长将在2024年晚些时候重新加速。尽管当前的经济低迷以及SentinelOne和Palo Alto Networks等竞争对手的市场份额增加可能会带来挑战，但我们认为，此次事件对CrowdStrike业绩的长期影响将是微乎其微的。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：240至280美元。中性前景。

Salesforce Inc (CRM)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $9.33B, +8.5% YoY, beat estimates by $100M
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.56, beat estimates by $0.20
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $9.31B to $9.36B vs consensus of $9.41B
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $37.7B to $38.0B vs consensus of $37.85B, maintain full-year subscription & support revenue growth expectations of slightly below 10% YoY and approximately 10% in constant currency. Update GAAP operating margin guidance to 19.7% and non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 32.8%. Raise operating cash flow growth guidance to 23%.
• Comment: Salesforce exceeded Wall Street expectations for its second-quarter revenue and profit, reporting US$9.33bn in revenue and an adjusted profit per share of US$2.56, driven by increased spending on its enterprise cloud products. The company raised its annual profit forecast to range between US$10.03 to US$10.11 per share, from US$9.86 to US$9.94 but projected third-quarter revenue of US$9.31bn to US$9.36bn below estimates of US$9.41bn, indicating a slower recovery in cloud spending. Additionally, Salesforce announced that its CFO will step down once a successor is appointed. Despite the company’s focus on AI integration through its own GPT and Copilot, concerns remain that AI might distract customers from long-term commitments. However, Salesforce has continued to outperform expectations in the current uncertain macroeconomic outlook, demonstrating continued customer faith in its products. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $240 to $290. Positive Outlook.

赛富时 (CRM)

• 25财年第二季营收：93.3亿美元，同比增幅8.5%，超预期1.0亿美元
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.56美元，超预期0.20美元
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收93.1亿至93.6亿美元，而市场预期为94.1亿美元
• 25财年指引：预计营收为377亿至380亿美元，高于市场预期的378.5亿美元，维持全年订阅及支援业务营收同比增长预期略低于10%，按固定汇率计算约为10%。更新GAAP营业利润率指引至19.7%，Non-GAAP营业利润率指引至32.8%。将经营性现金流增长预期提高至23%。
• 短评：赛富时第二季度营收和利润超出华尔街预期，营收93.3亿美元，调整后每股利润2.56美元，主要受企业云产品支出增加的推动。该公司将年度利润预期从每股9.86美元上调至9.94美元，至每股10.03美元至10.11美元，但预计第三季度收入为93.1亿美元至93.6亿美元，低于94.1亿美元的预期，表明云支出复苏放缓。此外，公司还宣布，一旦任命继任者，其首席财务官将辞职。尽管该公司通过自己的GPT和Copilot专注于人工智能集成，但人们仍然担心人工智能可能会分散客户对长期承诺的注意力。然而，在当前不确定的宏观经济前景中，公司的表现继续超出预期，表明客户对其产品的持续信心。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：240至290美元。积极前景。

HP Inc (HPQ)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $13.52B, +2.4% YoY, beat estimates by $160M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.83, misses estimates by $0.03
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.74 to $0.84 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.89 to $0.99 vs consensus of $0.95. Non-GAAP diluted net EPS estimates exclude $0.15 per diluted share.
• FY24 Guidance: Expect GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $2.62 to $2.72 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $3.35 to $3.45 vs consensus of $3.45. Non-GAAP diluted net EPS estimates exclude $0.73 per diluted share. Anticipates generating free cash flow in the range of $3.1B to $3.6B.
• Share repurchase: Share repurchase authorization increased to $10B.
• Comment: HP Inc reported its first quarterly revenue growth after eight consecutive quarters of decline, driven by a recovery in the personal computer market and increased demand for AI-capable systems. According to IDC data, global PC shipments rose 3% to 64.9mn units in the June quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth after a two-year decline. The company posted a 2.4% increase in revenue to US$13.52bn, surpassing Wall Street estimates of US$13.38bn, and announced a US$10bn share repurchase authorization. However, HP’s fourth-quarter profit forecast between US$0.89 to US$0.99 fell slightly below analyst expectations of US$0.95, and it narrowed its fiscal year 2024 profit outlook to be in the range of US$3.35 to US$3.45 per share as compared with its prior outlook of between US$3.30 to US$3.60. Looking ahead, demand in the PC market is anticipated to surge as companies deploy AI-capable PCs equipped with advanced, powerful processors designed for AI tasks. While HP’s current guidance may not be overly optimistic, we believe that as demand picks up in the upcoming fiscal year, the company will be able to sustain its revenue growth. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $30 to $37. Neutral Outlook.

惠普 (HPQ)

• 24财年第三季营收：135.2亿美元，同比增幅2.4%，超预期1.6亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.83美元，逊预期0.03美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在0.74美元至0.84美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在0.89美元至0.99美元之间，而市场预期为0.95美元。Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益预估不包括摊薄每股0.15美元。
• 股票回购：股票回购授权增加至100亿美元。
• 24财年指引：预计GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在2.62美元至2.72美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在3.35美元至3.45美元之间，而市场预期为3.45美元。Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益预估不包括每股摊薄0.73美元。预计将产生31亿至36亿美元的自由现金流。
• 短评：受个人电脑市场复苏和对人工智能系统需求增加的推动，惠普公司在连续八个季度下滑后，首次公布了季度收入增长。根据IDC的数据，6月当季全球个人电脑出货量增长3%，达到6,490万台，在连续两年下滑后连续第二个季度实现增长。该公司公布收入增长2.4%，达到135.2亿美元，超过华尔街预期的133.8亿美元，并宣布授权100亿美元的股票回购。然而，惠普第四季度的利润预测在0.89美元至0.99美元之间，略低于分析师预期的0.95美元，并将其2024财年的利润预期收窄至每股3.35美元至3.45美元，而之前的预期为每股3.30美元至3.60美元。展望未来，随着企业部署具有人工智能功能的PC，配备为人工智能任务设计的先进、强大的处理器，预计个人电脑市场的需求将激增。虽然惠普目前的指导可能不太乐观，但我们相信，随着需求在即将到来的财政年度回升，该公司将能够维持其收入增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：30至37美元。中性前景。