Technical Analysis – 16 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Adobe, Inc. (ADBE US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 550 Target 590, Stop 530

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 260, Target 276, Stop 252

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Comfort Delgro Corp Ltd (CD SP)

• Shares closed at a high since May 2024 with more volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.41, Target 1.49, Stop 1.37

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (ST SP)

• Shares higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 3.00 Target 3.20, Stop 2.90

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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd (1398 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 4.52, Target 4.80, Stop 4.38

Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (1658 HK)

• Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 4.20, Target 4.46, Stop 4.07

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $33.47B, +4.0% YoY, miss estimates by $1.15B
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPADR: $2.26, beat estimates by $0.17
• 2Q25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: Alibaba reported mixed 1Q25 results as it faces challenges in its core e-commerce business due to rising competition and cautious Chinese consumers. Despite better-than-expected earnings, revenue was weak. The company is battling competitors like PDD’s Pinduoduo and Temu, as well as JD.com, with these rivals cutting prices and launching promotions that could affect margins. Under Wu’s leadership since September 2023, Alibaba is transitioning to focus more on third-party merchants on Taobao and Tmall in China, reducing reliance on direct sales. The company plans to introduce new monetization features for its e-commerce platforms, aiming for growth by late 2025. In the short term, Alibaba is navigating a cautious consumer environment despite policies to boost consumption in China. Its cloud business saw a 6% YoY revenue increase to 26.5bn yuan, the fastest growth rate since 1Q23. Alibaba remains heavily invested in AI, selling AI products through its cloud unit, and expects AI-related product revenue to continue growing at triple-digit rates YoY. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $70 to $90. Neutral Outlook.

阿里巴巴 (BABA)

• 25财年第一季营收：334.7亿美元，同比增幅4.0%，逊预期11.5亿美元
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.26美元，超预期0.17美元
• 25财年第二季指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：由于竞争加剧和谨慎的中国消费者，阿里巴巴的核心电子商务业务面临挑战，阿里巴巴公布了25年第一季度业绩喜忧参半。尽管收益好于预期，但营收依然疲弱。该公司正在与拼多多旗下的拼多多、Temu以及京东等竞争对手展开竞争，这些竞争对手纷纷降价，并推出可能影响利润率的促销活动。自2023年9月以来，在吴的领导下，阿里巴巴正在转型，更多地关注中国淘宝和天猫上的第三方商家，减少对直销的依赖。该公司计划为其电子商务平台引入新的货币化功能，目标是到2025年底实现增长。从短期来看，尽管中国出台了刺激消费的政策，但阿里巴巴仍在谨慎的消费环境中前行。其云业务收入同比增长6%，达到265亿元，是自23年第一季度以来的最快增速。阿里巴巴仍在大力投资人工智能，通过其云计算部门销售人工智能产品，并预计人工智能相关产品收入将继续以三位数的速度增长。25年第二季度建议交易区间：70至90美元。中性前景。

Walmart Inc (WMT)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $169.3B, +4.7% YoY, beat estimates by $1.92B
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.67, beat estimates by $0.02
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect net sales to grow 3.25% to 4.25% vs an estimated growth of 3.88% YoY; Expect operating income to grow 3.0% to 4.5% in constant currency. FY25 Guidance: Expect net sales to grow 3.75% to 4.75%, compared to 3% to 4% previously, and vs an estimated growth of 4.68%; Expect adjusted operating income to grow 6.5% to 8.0% in constant currency.
• Comment: Walmart reported strong results driven by increased e-commerce and advertising sales and subsequently raised its outlook for the year. The company noted that consumer demand at their stores remains robust despite an uncertain economy, as core customers continue to rely on Walmart for everyday low prices, while higher-income households are also shopping there for value. This contrasts with other retailers who recently reported weaker consumer spending, despite a stronger-than-expected retail sales report in July. These results underscore Walmart’s strong market position. Additionally, improving consumer sentiment and better expectations for rate cuts are likely to boost consumer spending in the near term. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $69 to $81. Positive Outlook.

沃尔玛 (WMT)

• 25财年第二季营收：1,693亿美元，同比增幅4.7%，超预期19.2亿美元
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.67美元，超预期0.02美元
• 25财年第三季指引：预计净销售额将增长3.25%至4.25%，而预计同比增长3.88%；按固定汇率计算，预计营业收入将增长3.0%至4.5%。25财年指引：预计净销售额将增长3.75%至4.75%，而此前的预期增长为3%至4%，预计增长4.68%；按固定汇率计算，预计调整后的营业利润将增长6.5%至8.0%。
• 短评：在电子商务和广告销售增长的推动下，沃尔玛公布了强劲的业绩，随后上调了今年的预期。该公司指出，尽管经济不确定，但其门店的消费者需求仍然强劲，因为核心客户继续依赖沃尔玛的日常低价，而高收入家庭也在那里购物。与此形成对比的是，尽管7月份的零售销售报告强于预期，但其他零售商最近公布的消费者支出较弱。这些结果凸显了沃尔玛强大的市场地位。此外，消费者信心的改善和降息预期的改善可能会在短期内提振消费者支出。25年第三季度建议交易区间：69至81美元。积极前景。

JD.Com Inc (JD)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $40.1B, +1.2% YoY, miss estimates by $710M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.29, beat estimates by $0.42
• FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: JD.com reported mixed results, but its quarterly profit nearly doubled. The company posted a net profit of 12.64 billion yuan, up 92% year-over-year, significantly beating consensus estimates of 7.93 billion yuan. This strong performance reflects JD.com’s commitment to sustainable and high-quality growth. Despite facing stiff competition from Alibaba and PDD in its home market, which led to a “highly promotional” 618 shopping festival with aggressive price cuts, JD.com managed to deliver significantly better-than-expected net profit. This underscores the strength of JD.com’s business compared to its rivals, even amid competitive pressures that strain margins. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $25 to $30. Positive Outlook.

京东 (JD)

• 24财年第二季营收：401亿美元，同比增幅1.2%，逊预期7.1亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.29美元，超预期0.42美元
• 24财年指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：京东公布的业绩好坏参半，但其季度利润几乎翻了一番。该公司公布净利润为人民币126.4亿元，同比增长92%，大大超过市场普遍预期的人民币79.3亿元。这一强劲的业绩反映了京东对可持续和高质量增长的承诺。尽管在国内市场面临来自阿里巴巴和京东的激烈竞争，导致“高度促销”的618购物节大幅降价，但京东仍成功实现了明显好于预期的净利润。这凸显了京东业务相对于竞争对手的实力，即便是在利润率受到挤压的竞争压力下。24年第三季度建议交易区间：25至30美元。积极前景。

Applied Materials, Inc (AMAT)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $6.78B, +5.4% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.12, beat estimates by $0.10
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net revenue to be approximately $6.93bn, plus or minus $400mn and vs consensus of $6.92bn; Expects non-GAAP diluted EPS to be in the range of $2.00 to $2.36 vs $2.14 consensus.
• Comment: Applied Materials reported strong results and provided a 4Q24 outlook that exceeded estimates, anticipating a surge in AI-driven demand for its chip-making equipment. The booming demand for AI-powered chips has increased the need for sophisticated and costly wafer fabrication equipment essential for chip manufacturing, benefiting companies like Applied Materials. Additionally, the rise in demand for high-performance computing and data centres has boosted the need for memory semiconductors such as dynamic random access memory. Positive outlooks from several key semiconductor companies are also expected to benefit Applied Materials. The ongoing AI trend is likely to have a favourable impact on AMAT in the near term. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $195 to $245. Positive Outlook.

应用材料 (AMAT)

• 24财年第三季营收：67.8亿美元，同比增幅5.4%，超预期1.1亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.12美元，超预期0.1美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计净收入约为69.3亿美元，正负4亿美元，高于69.2亿美元的共识；预计Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益将在2.00美元至2.36美元之间，而市场预期为2.14美元。
• 短评：应用材料公司公布了强劲的业绩，并提供了超过预期的24年第四季度前景，预计人工智能驱动的芯片制造设备需求将激增。对人工智能芯片的旺盛需求增加了对芯片制造所必需的复杂而昂贵的晶圆制造设备的需求，这使应用材料等公司受益。此外，高性能计算和数据中心需求的增长也推动了对动态随机存取存储器等存储半导体的需求。几家主要半导体公司的乐观前景预计也将使应用材料公司受益。正在进行的人工智能趋势可能会在短期内对公司产生有利影响。24年第四季度建议交易区间：195至245美元。积极前景。