Technical Analysis – 14 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH US)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 112 Target 122, Stop 107

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR US)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 227, Target 247, Stop 217

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Olam Group Ltd (OLG SP)

• Shares closed at an eleven-month high above the 5wEMA.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
• Long – Entry 1.20, Target 1.30, Stop 1.15

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
• Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
• Long – Entry 9.90 Target 10.48, Stop 9.61

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People’s Insurance Co Group of China Ltd/The (1339 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 2.64, Target 2.88, Stop 2.52

PICC Property & Casualty Co Ltd (2328 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
• Long – Entry 10.02, Target 10.64, Stop 9.71

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On Holding AG (ONON)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $656.66M, +27.8% YoY, beat estimates by $5.82M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.16, miss estimates by $0.03
• FY24 Guidance: Reiterate FY24 outlook. Expects at least 30% net sales growth on constant currency basis, and implies a reported net sales of at least CHF 2.26bn in 2024; Expects to achieve a GPM of around 60% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.0% to 16.5%.
• Comment: On Holding reported mixed results but reaffirmed its FY24 guidance. The company achieved two consecutive record top-line quarters and sustained strong demand across channels, regions, and product categories, anticipating this momentum to persist in the next quarter. However, the company’s direct-to-consumer sales were slightly weaker than expected. Looking ahead, On Holding will concentrate on advancing its warehouse automation project in the U.S. to enhance distribution capabilities in North America over the medium term. The market also expects On Holding’s shoes to remain popular in the near term. Additionally, improving consumer sentiment is likely to boost the company’s sales. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $37 to $50. Positive Outlook.

昂跑 (ONON)

• 24财年第二季营收：6.5666亿美元，同比增幅27.8%，超预期582万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.16美元，逊预期0.03美元
• 24财年指引：重申对2024财年的展望。按固定汇率计算，预计净销售额至少增长30%，2024年净销售额至少达到22.6亿瑞士法郎；预计毛利率约为60%，调整后EBITDA利润率为16.0%至16.5%。
• 短评：昂跑公布了喜忧参半的业绩，但重申了其24财年的指引。该公司连续两个季度实现了创纪录的收入，并在渠道、地区和产品类别中保持了强劲的需求，预计这一势头将在下个季度持续下去。然而，该公司的直接面向消费者的销售额略低于预期。展望未来，公司将专注于推进其在美国的仓库自动化项目，以增强中期在北美的分销能力。市场还预计，公司的鞋子在短期内仍将受欢迎。此外，消费者信心的改善可能会提振该公司的销售。24年第三季度建议交易区间：37至50美元。积极前景。

Home Depot Inc (HD)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $43.2B, +0.7% YoY, beat estimates by $490M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.67, beat estimates by $0.12
• FY24 Guidance: Update its full-year guidance to reflect 1H24 performance and include SRS. Expect total sales to increase between 2.5% and 3.5% including the 53^rd week, 53^rd week is projected to add approximately US$2.3bn in total sales and SRS is expected to contribute approximately US$6.4bn in incremental sales. GAAP EPS declined 2% to 4%, and adjusted EPS dropped 1% to 3%. Comparable sales to decline between 3% and 4%, the gross margin rate to be about 33.5% and the operating margin rate to be between 13.50% and 13.60%.
• Comment: Home Depot reported revenue of US$43.2bn and EPS of US$4.67, exceeding analysts’ expectations. However, the company saw a 3.3% decline in overall comparable sales, a 0.8% drop in operating income, and a 2.1% decrease in net earnings to US$4.6bn. It warned of further declines in annual profit and sales due to reduced consumer spending on large projects amid high borrowing costs and inflation. The company expects annual comparable sales to decrease by 3% to 4%, and diluted profit per share to fall by 2% to 4%. Despite these challenges, the US$18.25bn acquisition of SRS Distribution contributed US$1.3bn to Q2 revenue, helping offset some losses. Home Depot also experienced growth in its outdoor power equipment, plumbing categories, and digital sales, although it faces slight market share erosion from competitors like Ace Hardware and Sherwin Williams. The company is focusing on its professional builders’ business, with SRS expected to add US$6.4bn to annual sales. With the expected easing of interest rates to revitalise the housing market and reduce economic pressures, we anticipate that Home Depot will gradually experience a positive impact on its business, driven by increased customer spending and improved economic conditions. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $340 to $375. Positive Outlook.

家得宝 (HD)

• 24财年第二季营收：432亿美元，同比增幅0.7%，超预期4.9亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.67美元，超预期0.12美元
• 24财年指引：更新全年指引，以反映全年业绩，并纳入SRS。包括第53周在内，预计总销售额将增长2.5%至3.5%，第53周预计将增加约23亿美元的总销售额，SRS预计将贡献约64亿美元的增量销售额。GAAP每股收益下降2%至4%，调整后每股收益下降1%至3%。可比销售额将下降3%至4%，毛利率约为33.5%，营业利润率在13.50%至13.60%之间。
• 短评：家得宝报告收入为432亿美元，每股收益为4.67美元，超出了分析师的预期。然而，该公司整体可比销售额下降3.3%，营业收入下降0.8%，净利润下降2.1%，至46亿美元。该公司警告称，由于借贷成本高企和通胀，大型项目上的消费者支出减少，年度利润和销售额将进一步下降。该公司预计年度可比销售额将下降3%至4%，摊薄后每股利润将下降2%至4%。尽管面临这些挑战，但以182.5亿美元收购SRS分销公司为第二季度贡献了13亿美元的收入，帮助抵消了一些损失。家得宝的户外电力设备、管道类产品和数字产品的销售也有所增长，尽管它的市场份额受到Ace Hardware和Sherwin Williams等竞争对手的轻微侵蚀。该公司正专注于其专业建筑商业务，预计SRS将为其年销售额增加64亿美元。随着预期的利率放松以振兴房地产市场并减轻经济压力，我们预计，在客户支出增加和经济状况改善的推动下，家得宝将逐渐对其业务产生积极影响。24年第三季度建议交易区间：340至375美元。积极前景。

Sea Ltd (SE)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $3.81B, +22.9% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.14, miss estimates by $0.05
• FY24 Guidance: Raise guidance for Shopee’s full-year GMV growth to mid-20% and expect Shopee to become adjusted EBITDA positive from Q3.
• Comment: Sea Ltd. reported second-quarter revenue of US$3.81bn, surpassing analysts’ estimates. The increase in its commission charges for merchants in many core markets by about a third since the beginning of the year contributed to this success. The higher fees, which are now well above those of its competitors, indicate Sea’s confidence in its efforts to become a key partner for merchants. This is supported by the company’s large user base and well-established delivery services. However, its EPS of US$0.14 fell below consensus estimates. The company raised its annual e-commerce sales outlook, indicating strong performance in fending off competition from rivals like TikTok and Lazada. Sea’s e-commerce arm, Shopee, is expected to see gross merchandise volume grow by mid-20% this year, up from predictions of high teens in March. Shopee also forecasted profitability on an adjusted basis in 3Q24. In the gaming sector, Garena’s revenue declined by 18% to US$435.6mn, while its bookings rose by 21% to US$536.8mn. Sea’s banking division also experienced a 21% growth and aims to continue growing despite stiff competition. Sea posted a net income of US$80mn for 2Q24, surpassing analyst expectations, with sales rising 23% to US$3.8bn. Despite challenges, including increased competition and the need for innovation in its gaming division, Sea’s overall strategy, including fee hikes and investments in AI and live streaming, continues to bolster its market leadership in Southeast Asia. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $65to $85. Positive Outlook.

东海集团 (SE)

• 24财年第二季营收：38.1亿美元，同比增幅22.9%，超预期9,000万美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.14美元，逊预期0.05美元
• 24财年指引：将虾皮全年GMV增长预期上调至20%左右，并预计虾皮调整后的EBITDA将从第三季度开始变为正值。
• 短评：东海集团公布第二季度收入38.1亿美元，超过分析师预期。自今年年初以来，该公司在许多核心市场向商户收取的佣金增加了约三分之一，这促成了这一成功。更高的费用(目前远高于竞争对手)表明，公司有信心努力成为商家的关键合作伙伴。这得益于该公司庞大的用户群和完善的交付服务。然而，其每股收益为0.14美元，低于普遍预期。该公司上调了年度电子商务销售预期，表明在抵御TikTok和Lazada等竞争对手的竞争方面表现强劲。该公司旗下的电商平台虾皮今年的总成交额预计将增长20%左右，高于3月份预测的10%左右。虾皮还预测了第三季度调整后的盈利能力。在游戏领域，Garena的收入下降了18%，至4.356亿美元，而预订量增长了21%，至5.368亿美元。东海的银行业务也实现了21%的增长，并计划在竞争激烈的情况下继续增长。东海公布了24年第二季度的净收入为8,000万美元，超过分析师预期，销售额增长23%，达到38亿美元。尽管面临挑战，包括竞争加剧和游戏部门需要创新，但公司的整体战略，包括费用上涨和对人工智能和直播的投资，继续巩固其在东南亚的市场领导地位。24年第三季度建议交易区间：65至85美元。积极前景。

Nu Holdings Ltd (NU)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $2.8B, +65% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
• 2Q24 EPS: $0.998, beat estimates by $0.908
• FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: Nu Holdings reported strong financial performance in the second quarter, with net income rising to US$487mn and adjusted net income reaching US$563mn, reflecting annualized ROEs of 28% and 33% respectively. Revenue grew by 65% YoY to US$2.8bn, and gross profit increased by 88% YoY to US$1.4bn, with a gross profit margin of 48%. The company’s capital and liquidity positions remain robust, with US$2.4bn in excess capital and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 39%. In Brazil, Nu’s customer base grew to 95.5mn, making it the fourth-largest financial institution by customer numbers. The company also saw significant international growth, with Mexico reaching 7.8mn customers and Colombia surpassing 1mn customers. Nu’s multi-product platform continues to expand, with millions of active users across its credit cards, accounts, loans, insurance, and investment products. Nu has become the institution with the largest number of active customers in credit operations, totaling 55.9 million customers, according to the Brazilian Central Bank. As it continues to expand its presence across Mexico, Brazil and Colombia and acquire more active customers, we believe that it will continue to deliver growth in revenue. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $12 to $15. Positive Outlook.

Nu控股 (HD)

• 24财年第二季营收：28.0亿美元，同比增幅65.0%，超预期4,000万美元
• 24财年第二季每股盈利：0.998美元，超预期0.908美元
• 24财年指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：Nu控股第二季度财务表现强劲，净收入上升至4.87亿美元，调整后净收入达到5.63亿美元，年化投资回报率分别为28%和33%。营收同比增长65%至28亿美元，毛利润同比增长88%至14亿美元，毛利率为48%。该公司的资本和流动性状况依然强劲，拥有24亿美元的过剩资本，贷存比为39%。在巴西，Nu的客户群增长至9550万，成为客户数量排名第四的金融机构。该公司还实现了显著的国际增长，墨西哥客户达到780万，哥伦比亚客户超过100万。Nu的多产品平台不断扩展，在其信用卡、账户、贷款、保险和投资产品中拥有数百万活跃用户。根据巴西央行的数据，Nu已成为信贷业务活跃客户数量最多的机构，客户总数达5590万。随着它在墨西哥、巴西和哥伦比亚的业务不断扩大，并获得更多活跃客户，我们相信它将继续实现收入增长。24年第三季度建议交易区间：12至15美元。积极前景。