Technical Analysis – 1 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US)

Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 335 Target 365, Stop 320

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Samsara Inc. (IOT US)

Shares closed at a 2-month high since May 24.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 38.0, Target 42.0, Stop 36.0

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SATS Ltd. (SATS SP)

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Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with higher volume.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 3.25, Target 3.65, Stop 3.05

Aztech Global Ltd. (AZTECH SP)

Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 1.02 Target 1.12, Stop 0.97

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China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co Ltd (966 HK)

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Shares closed above the 50dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
Long – Entry 8.10, Target 8.80, Stop 7.75

China Pacific Insurance Group Co Ltd (2601 HK)

Shares closed at a one-month high above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
Long – Entry 20.3, Target 21.9, Stop 19.5

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Boeing Co (BA)

2Q24 Revenue: $16.87B, -14.6% YoY, miss estimates by $480M
2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$2.90, miss estimates by $0.89
3Q24 Guidance: No guidance was provided but expect to increase the output of its Max planes to 38 a month.
Comment: Boeing reported weaker-than-expected revenue and larger-than-expected losses for Q2 2024. Both its commercial and defense units continue to face challenges from program delays and higher-than-anticipated costs. Since 2020, Boeing has lost about $25 billion, with a recent cash burn exceeding $1 billion per month, a trend expected to persist this quarter due to lower production and delivery rates. Despite this, Boeing plans to increase the output of its Max planes to 38 per month. The company is under increased federal scrutiny after a door plug blew out from a nearly new 737 Max 9 in January, affecting production of its best-selling narrowbody plane. Boeing is also dealing with manufacturing challenges, quality issues, and the potential for labor strikes amid ongoing contract negotiations. Additionally, Boeing has appointed Robert “Kelly” Ortberg as its new CEO, effective August 8, 2024. Ortberg, who has a degree in mechanical engineering, previously served as CEO of Rockwell Collins from 2013 until his retirement in 2021. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $180 to $200. Neutral Outlook.

波音 (BA)

24财年第二季营收：168.7亿美元，同比跌幅14.6%，逊预期4.8亿美元
24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：2.29美元，逊预期0.89美元
24财年第三季指引：没有提供指导，但预计将把Max飞机的产量提高到每月38架。
短评：波音公司公布2024年第二季度收入低于预期，亏损高于预期。其商业和国防部门都面临着项目延迟和高于预期成本的挑战。自2020年以来，波音已经亏损了约250亿美元，最近每月的现金消耗超过10亿美元，由于生产和交付率下降，预计这一趋势将在本季度持续下去。尽管如此，波音公司计划将其Max飞机的产量增加到每月38架。今年1月，波音一架几乎全新的737 Max 9飞机的一个门塞爆裂，影响了该公司最畅销的窄体飞机的生产，此后该公司受到了越来越多的联邦审查。波音还在处理制造挑战、质量问题以及正在进行的合同谈判中可能发生的罢工。此外，波音公司已任命罗伯特·凯利·奥特伯格为新任首席执行官，自2024年8月8日起生效。拥有机械工程学位的奥特伯格此前曾担任罗克韦尔柯林斯公司(Rockwell Collins)的首席执行官(2013年至2021年退休)。24年第三季度建议交易区间：180至200美元。中性前景。

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)

2Q24 Revenue: $2.4B, +8.6% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.40, beat estimates by $0.06
FY24 Guidance: Raise FY24 guidance.Expect net yield guidance of approximately 8.2%, compared to 7.2% previously; expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.35bn, compared to $2.30bn previously; expect adjusted net cruise costs excluding fuel per capacity day to remain flat YoY; expect adjusted net income guidance to approximately $79-mn, compared to $730mn previously; expect adjusted EPS of $1.53, compared to $1.42 previously, vs consensus of $1.45.
Comment: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) reported strong results, driven by increased efficiency and high demand for cruises. The company raised its FY24 guidance for the third time, citing strong consumer demand, with most new bookings shifting to 2025 sailings. Consequently, NCLH remains at the upper range of its optimal booked position on a 12-month forward basis. FY24 occupancy is now expected to average 105.2%, slightly above the previous guidance. Better than expected rate cut outlook is also likely to boost demand for cruises. However, the company remains vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices, influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $17 to $22. Positive Outlook.

挪威邮轮 (NCLH)

24财年第二季营收：24.0亿美元，同比增幅8.6%，超预期2,000万美元
24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.40美元，超预期0.06美元
24财年指引：提高24财年指引。净收益率预期约为8.2%，此前为7.2%；预计调整后的EBITDA约为23.5亿美元，此前为23亿美元；预计调整后的邮轮净成本(不包括每个运力日的燃油)将与去年同期持平；预计调整后的净收入指引约为7,900万美元，而此前为7.3亿美元；预计调整后每股收益为1.53美元，此前为1.42美元，而市场预期为1.45美元。
短评：挪威邮轮控股公司公布了强劲的业绩，这得益于效率的提高和对邮轮旅行的高需求。该公司第三次上调了24财年的预期，理由是消费者需求强劲，大部分新预订转向了2025年的航班。因此，公司在未来12个月的基础上仍处于其最佳预订位置的上限。目前预计24财年入住率平均为105.2%，略高于之前的指引。好于预期的降息前景也可能提振邮轮需求。然而，受中东紧张局势升级的影响，该公司仍然容易受到油价波动的影响。24年第三季度建议交易区间：17至22美元。积极前景。

Mastercard Inc (MA)

2Q24 Revenue: $7.0B, +11.1% YoY, beat estimates by $150M
2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.59, beat estimates by $0.08
FY24 Guidance: Expect net revenue to grow at the high end of a low double-digit range on a currency-neutral basis.
Comment: Mastercard reported stronger-than-expected results as consumer spending remained robust throughout the quarter. The company saw gross dollar volume increase by 9% and purchase volume rise by 10%. Cross-border payment volumes surged by 24% as global travel and eCommerce transactions continued to recover from the pandemic. During the quarter, Mastercard secured several new deals, including the significant conversion of neobank Varo Bank’s debit and credit portfolios to Mastercard and the extension of its enterprise agreement with Wells Fargo, enhancing its market presence. Additionally, Mastercard renewed partnerships and extended collaborations with several major U.S. prepaid partners. Looking ahead, an improved rate cut outlook and increased consumer confidence are expected to boost consumer spending in the near term, benefiting Mastercard. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $450 to $490. Positive Outlook.

万事达 (MA)

24财年第二季营收：70.0亿美元，同比增幅11.1%，超预期1.5亿美元
24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.59美元，超预期0.08美元
24财年指引：在汇率中性的基础上，预计净收入将以较低的两位数区间的高端增长。
短评：由于消费者支出在整个季度保持强劲，万事达卡公布了强于预期的业绩。该公司的总美元交易量增长了9%，购买量增长了10%。随着全球旅游和电子商务交易继续从疫情中复苏，跨境支付量激增24%。在本季度，万事达卡获得了几笔新交易，包括将neobank Varo Bank的借贷组合转换为万事达卡，以及延长与富国银行的企业协议，从而增强了其市场份额。此外，万事达卡与美国几家主要的预付费合作伙伴重新建立了合作关系，并扩大了合作范围。展望未来，降息前景改善和消费者信心增强预计将在短期内提振消费者支出，令万事达卡受益。24年第三季度建议交易区间：450至490美元。积极前景。

Meta Platforms Inc (META)

2Q24 Revenue: $39.07B, +22.1% YoY, beat estimates by $760M
2Q24 GAAP EPS: $5.16, beat estimates by $0.40
3Q24 Guidance: Total revenue expected to be in the range of $38.4bn – $41.0bn vs consensus of $39.18bn, assuming a 2% foreign currency headwind to YoY revenue growth. FY24 Guidance: Expect total expense to be in the range of $96bn – $99bn, unchanged from the prior outlook; Expect CAPEX of $37bn – $40bn, compared to $35bn to $40bn previously.
Comment: Meta reported strong results, driven by robust global advertising demand and advancements in AI. Daily active people (DAP) increased by 7% YoY to an average of 3.27bn in June. During the quarter, Meta released its first frontier-level open-source AI model and saw positive reception for its Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses, along with notable growth across its apps. The company continues to benefit from global advertising demand and a multiyear project aimed at enhancing ad targeting, ranking, and delivery through AI. Meta anticipates increased spending on AI but issued an optimistic sales forecast for the third quarter, indicating that strong digital ad revenue will offset the costs of its AI investments. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $480 to $570. Positive Outlook.

Meta平台 (META)

24财年第二季营收：390.7亿美元，同比增幅22.1%，超预期7.6亿美元
24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：5.16美元，超预期0.4美元
24财年第三季指引：总营收预计在384亿美元至410亿美元之间，而市场预期为391.8亿美元，假设同比营收增长受到2%的外汇不利因素影响。24财年指引：预计总费用在960亿至990亿美元之间，与之前的预期持平；预计资本支出为370亿至400亿美元，高于此前的350亿至400亿美元。
短评：Meta公布了强劲的业绩，这得益于强劲的全球广告需求和人工智能的进步。6月份，日活跃用户(DAP)同比增长7%，平均达到32.7亿人。在本季度，Meta发布了第一个前沿级开源人工智能模型，其Ray-Ban Meta人工智能眼镜获得了积极的反响，其应用程序也有了显著的增长。该公司继续受益于全球广告需求和一个旨在通过人工智能增强广告定位、排名和投放的多年项目。Meta预计人工智能方面的支出将增加，但对第三季度的销售预测持乐观态度，表明强劲的数字广告收入将抵消其人工智能投资的成本。24年第三季度建议交易区间：480至570美元。积极前景。

Arm Holdings PLC (ARM)

1Q25 Revenue: $939M, +39.1%YoY, beat estimates by $32.5M
1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.40, beat estimates by $0.05
2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $780mn – $830mn vs consensus of $812.75mn; Expect non-GAAP operating expense of approximately $500mn; Expect non-GAAP fully diluted EPS in the range of $0.23 to $0.27 vs consensus of $0.28. FY25 Guidance: Reaffirm FY25 outlook.Expect revenue to be in the range of $3.8bn to $4.1bn vs $3.99bn; Expect non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $2,050mn; expect Non-GAAP fully diluted EPS in the range of $1.45 to $1.65 vs consensus of $1.57.
Comment: Arm Holdings reported weaker-than-expected results and issued a conservative forecast, raising investor concerns about the slower realization of returns from its AI computing investments compared to chipmakers like Nvidia. The company emphasized that the financial benefits from designs licensed this year will take longer to materialize. Currently, Arm benefits from a design included in some versions of Nvidia’s H100 AI chips and expects to generate even more revenue from Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell chip family, which has begun sampling to customers. Although Arm is benefiting from the surge in AI spending, weaknesses in other markets, possibly due to inventory glut, have led management to temper high expectations. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $110 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

Arm控股 (ARM)

25财年第一季营收：9.39亿美元，同比增长39.1%，超预期2.6亿美元
25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.4美元，超预期0.02美元
25财年第二季指引：预计营收在7.8亿至8.3亿美元之间，而市场预期为8.1275亿美元；预计Non-GAAP运营费用约为5亿美元；预计Non-GAAP完全稀释每股收益在0.23美元至0.27美元之间，而市场预期为0.28美元。25财年指引：重申25财年展望。预计营收将在38亿至41亿美元之间，去年为39.9亿美元；预计Non-GAAP运营费用约为20.50亿美元；预计Non-GAAP完全稀释每股收益在1.45美元至1.65美元之间，而市场预期为1.57美元。
短评：Arm控股公布了低于预期的业绩，并发布了保守的预测，这引发了投资者的担忧，即与英伟达等芯片制造商相比，其人工智能计算投资的回报实现速度较慢。该公司强调，今年获得许可的设计带来的经济效益将需要更长的时间才能实现。目前，Arm受益于英伟达H100 AI芯片的一些版本中包含的设计，并希望从英伟达即将推出的Blackwell芯片系列中获得更多收入，该芯片系列已经开始向客户提供样品。尽管Arm正受益于人工智能支出的激增，但其他市场的疲软(可能是由于库存过剩)导致管理层降低了过高的预期。25年第二季度建议交易区间：110至160美元。中性前景。

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

3Q24 Revenue: $9.39B, +11.3% YoY, beat estimates by $170M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.33, beat estimates by $0.07
4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue in the range of $9.5B-$10.3B vs $9.71B consensus, Non-GAAP EPS of $2.45-$2.65 vs $2.45 consensus.
Comment: Qualcomm delivered revenue of US$9.39B and earnings of US$2.33 per share which surpassed estimates. It also forecasted fourth-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates, driven by strong demand for high-end Android devices and AI-upgraded smartphones. The company flagged a revenue hit from a revoked US export license for Huawei. Despite trade tensions and export curbs with China, Qualcomm remains optimistic about its AI-driven smartphone chip demand and premium-tier market share. It forecasted a midpoint revenue of US$9.9bn for the fourth quarter, slightly above analyst estimates and an adjusted earnings range with a midpoint of US$2.55 per share, above estimates of US$2.45 per share. Qualcomm’s revenue from its core chip business is also expected to exceed estimates, supported by the addition of AI features and strong sales of Apple’s iPhones and Vivo smartphones in China. The surging demand for premium smartphones is driving up orders for Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chips. Additionally, the integration of advanced AI features into smartphones is increasing Qualcomm’s semiconductor content per device, as manufacturers seek to enhance processing capabilities. Furthermore, Qualcomm’s new launch of Snapdragon X Series solutions for PCs, which offer superior performance, power efficiency, and AI capabilities, is expected to drive additional sales growth and mark Qualcomm’s transformation into an intelligent computing leader. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $175 to $210. Positive Outlook.

高通 (QCOM)

24财年第三季营收：93.9亿美元，同比增幅11.3%，超预期1.7亿美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.33美元，超预期0.07
24财年第四季指引：预计营收在95亿至103亿美元之间，而市场预期为97.1亿美元；Non-GAAP每股收益为2.45至2.65美元，而市场预期为2.45美元。
短评：高通当季营收93.9亿美元，每股收益2.33美元，超出预期。该公司还预测，受高端安卓设备和人工智能升级版智能手机的强劲需求推动，第四季度营收将高于华尔街预期。尽管与中国的贸易紧张和出口限制，高通仍对其人工智能驱动的智能手机芯片需求和高端市场份额持乐观态度。该公司预计第四季度营收中值为99亿美元，略高于分析师预期，调整后每股收益中值为2.55美元，高于每股2.45美元的预期。高通核心芯片业务的收入预计也将超过预期，这得益于人工智能功能的增加以及苹果iPhone和Vivo智能手机在中国的强劲销售。高端智能手机需求的激增推动了高通骁龙芯片的订单增加。此外，随着制造商寻求提高处理能力，将先进的人工智能功能集成到智能手机中，正在增加高通每台设备的半导体含量。此外，高通新推出的骁龙X系列pc解决方案具有卓越的性能、能效和人工智能功能，预计将推动额外的销售增长，并标志着高通向智能计算领导者的转型。24年第四季度建议交易区间：175至210美元。积极前景。

Lam Research Corp (LRCX)

4Q24 Revenue: $1.69B, +15.8% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.10, beat estimates by $0.16
1Q25 Guidance: Expect EPS ranging from $7.25 to $8.75 and revenue ranging from $3.75B to $4.35B vs the estimates of $8.10 and $4.02B respectively.
Comment: For the fourth quarter, Lam Research reported US$3.87bn in revenue and an adjusted profit of US$8.14 per share, both beating expectations, driven by rising demand for AI-powered chips, high-performance computing and data centres. Lam Research forecasted Q1 revenue above Wall Street estimates, driven by a surge in orders from chip firms amid the AI boom. The increased demand for AI-powered chips has bolstered the need for sophisticated wafer fabrication equipment, benefiting Lam Research. The company projected revenue between US$4.05bn, plus or minus US$300mn, exceeding the US$4.02bn estimate. Demand for high-performance computing and data centres has also boosted the need for memory semiconductors, aiding chip-making tool suppliers. Lam’s significant customers include Intel, Micron Technology, Samsung Electronics, and TSMC, with China accounting for 39% of its total revenue. Lam Research is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing AI boom. As demand for its products continues to rise, the company is expected to deliver increasing sales. However, the company’s substantial revenue exposure to China could introduce potential risks due to evolving export restrictions. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $890 to $1000. Neutral Outlook.

拉姆研究 (LRCX)

24财年第四季营收：169亿美元，同比增幅15.8%，超预期4,000万美元
24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.1美元，超预期0.16美元
25财年第一季指引：预计每股收益在725美元至875美元之间，收入在37.5亿美元至43.5亿美元之间，而市场预期分别为810美元和40.2亿美元。
短评：在第四季度，拉姆研究报告收入为38.7亿美元，调整后每股利润为8.14美元，均超出预期，这是由于对人工智能芯片、高性能计算和数据中心的需求不断增长。公司预测，受人工智能热潮中芯片公司订单激增的推动，第一季度营收高于华尔街预期。对人工智能芯片的需求增加，增加了对精密晶圆制造设备的需求，使公司受益。该公司预计收入在40.5亿美元之间，正负3亿美元，超过了40.2亿美元的预期。对高性能计算和数据中心的需求也推动了对存储半导体的需求，从而帮助了芯片制造工具供应商。公司的重要客户包括英特尔、美光科技(Micron Technology)、三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和台积电(TSMC)，中国占其总收入的39%。Lam Research在利用持续的人工智能热潮方面处于有利地位。随着对其产品的需求持续上升，该公司预计将实现不断增长的销售额。然而，由于不断演变的出口限制，该公司在中国的巨额收入敞口可能会带来潜在风险。25年第一季度建议交易区间：890至1000美元。中性前景。

Western Digital Corp (WDC)

4Q24 Revenue: $3.76B, +40.8% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.44, beat estimates by $0.27
1Q25 Guidance: Expect EPS ranging from $1.55 to $1.85 and revenue of $4B to $4.2B, vs analysts estimates of $1.74 and $4.22B respectively.
Comment: Western Digital Corp’s fourth-quarter revenue was US$3.76bn, beating expectations, but its adjusted profit per share of US$0.88 fell short. Revenue from its flash memory business rose nearly 28% to US$1.76bn and its revenue segment rose 21% QoQ, representing about 50% of total revenue. Western Digital Corp forecasted first-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates, indicating a slower recovery in its data storage products. Despite an AI-driven boost for some memory chipmakers, demand for chips in conventional data centers continues to decline, impacting companies like WDC. The company expects first-quarter revenue between US$4bn and US$4.20bn, slightly below analysts’ estimates of US$4.22bn, with adjusted earnings per share ranging from US$1.55 to US$1.85, also below the estimated US$1.74. With the continued lower demand for chips used in conventional data centres, Western Digital’s revenue will continue to be impacted. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $50 to $65. Negative Outlook.

西部数据 (WDC)

24财年第四季营收：37.6亿美元，同比增幅40.8%，超预期2,000万美元
24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.44美元，超预期0.27美元
25财年第一季指引：预计每股收益将在1.55美元至1.85美元之间，营收将在40亿美元至42亿美元之间，分析师的预期分别为1.74美元和42.2亿美元。
短评：西部数据公司第四季度收入为37.6亿美元，超出预期，但调整后每股利润为0.88美元，低于预期。其闪存业务收入增长近28%，达到17.6亿美元，其收入部门环比增长21%，约占总收入的50%。西部数据公司预计25财年第一季度收入低于华尔街预期，表明其数据存储产品的复苏速度放缓。尽管人工智能推动了一些内存芯片制造商的发展，但传统数据中心对芯片的需求持续下降，影响了西部数据等公司。该公司预计第一季度收入在40亿美元至42亿美元之间，略低于分析师42.2亿美元的预期，调整后每股收益在1.55美元至1.85美元之间，也低于预期的1.74美元。随着传统数据中心对芯片需求的持续下降，西部数据的收入将继续受到影响。25年第一季度建议交易区间：50至65美元。负面前景。