Technical Analysis – 31 July 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

General Mills, Inc. (GIS US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 67.50 Target 74.50, Stop 64.0

Campbell Soup Company. (CPB US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 47.3, Target 51.3, Stop 45.3

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Sheng Siong Group Ltd. (SSG SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 1.53, Target 1.61, Stop 1.49

Wilmar International (WIL SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with more volume. The 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 3.15 Target 3.35, Stop 3.05

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CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily -2X Inverse Product (7552 HK)

• Shares closed at a three-month high above the 200dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 6.70, Target 7.34, Stop 6.38

CSOP Hang Seng Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (7500 HK)

• Shares closed at a three-month high above the 5dEMA.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 5.61, Target 6.08, Stop 5.38

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PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $7.2B, +8.2% YoY, beat estimates by $80M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.19, beat estimates by $0.20
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect mid-single-digit revenue growth; Expect GAAP EPS between $0.96 to $0.98; Expects high single-digit non-GAAP EPS growth. FY24 Guidance: Expect GAAP EPS to be between $3.88 to $3.98 vs consensus of $4.16; Expect low to mid-teens non-GAAP EPS growth.
• FY24 share buyback: Expect to buy back $6bn of shares in 2024, compared to a prior guidance of at least $5bn.
• Comment: PayPal reported a solid set of results and raised its FY24 guidance for the second time, driven by the outperformance of its branded checkout business, which alleviated competition concerns. The company achieved its best transaction margin dollar growth since 2021 and is making consistent progress in its strategic transformation. Total payment volume increased by 11% to $416.8bn. PayPal also raised its share repurchase outlook for FY24. Additionally, the company noted that American consumers have remained resilient despite higher utility and credit card bills. PayPal is optimistic about continued consumer spending through the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. A favourable rate cut outlook and improved consumer sentiment are likely to further boost spending. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $60 to $72. Positive Outlook.

贝宝 (PYPL)

• 24财年第二季营收：72.0亿美元，同比增幅8.2%，超预期8,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.19美元，超预期0.2美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计营收将实现中等个位数的增长；预计GAAP每股收益在0.96美元至0.98美元之间；预计Non-GAAP每股收益将实现高个位数增长。24财年指引：预计GAAP每股收益在3.88美元至3.98美元之间，而市场预期为4.16美元；预计Non-GAAP每股收益增长将在15%至15%之间。
• 24财年股票回购：预计2024年将回购60亿美元股票，而此前的指引是至少回购50亿美元。
• 短评：贝宝公布了一系列稳健的业绩，并第二次上调了其24财年的指引，这得益于其品牌结账业务的出色表现，这缓解了对竞争的担忧。该公司实现了自2021年以来的最佳交易利润率增长，并在战略转型方面取得了持续进展。支付总额增长11%至4,168亿美元。公司还上调了其对24财年股票回购的预期。此外，该公司指出，尽管公用事业和信用卡账单较高，但美国消费者仍保持弹性。贝宝对消费者在返校和假日购物季的持续支出持乐观态度。有利的降息前景和消费者信心的改善可能会进一步提振支出。24年第三季度建议交易区间：60至72美元。积极前景。

Pfizer Inc (PFE)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $13.28B, +2.2% YoY, beat estimates by $260M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.60, beat estimates by $0.14
• FY24 Guidance: Raise FY24 guidance.Expect revenue between a range of $59.5bn to $62.6bn vs consensus of $60.58bn; expect adjusted diluted EPS to a range of $2.45 to $2.65 vs $2.37 consensus.   
• Comment: Pfizer reported stronger-than-expected earnings and raised its FY24 outlook. Revenue was bolstered by several acquired products and recent commercial launches, which offset a decline from its Covid-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and unfavorable foreign currency translation. Excluding Covid products, revenue rose 14% year-over-year. The company is advancing its strategy to drive growth and improve its share price through dealmaking, including the $43 billion acquisition of Seagen, cost-cutting programs, and launching new medicines. Pfizer is also making progress on its weight-loss pill, danuglipron, which showed promise in an early-stage pharmacokinetic study. The decreased reliance on COVID products indicates that Pfizer is transitioning into a growth-focused company rather than a pandemic-dependent one. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $28 to $36. Positive Outlook.

辉瑞 (PFE)

• 24财年第二季营收：132.8亿美元，同比增幅2.2%，超预期2.6亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.6美元，超预期0.14美元
• 24财年指引：提高24财年指引。预计营收在595亿美元至626亿美元之间，而市场预期为605.8亿美元；预计调整后的稀释每股收益将在2.45美元至2.65美元之间，而市场预期为2.37美元。
• 短评：辉瑞公司公布了强于预期的收益，并上调了24财年的预期。一些收购的产品和最近的商业发布提振了收入，抵消了其Covid-19疫苗Comirnaty的下降和不利的外币折算。不包括Covid产品，收入同比增长14%。该公司正在推进其战略，通过交易推动增长并提高股价，包括以430亿美元收购Seagen、削减成本计划和推出新药。辉瑞公司的减肥药danuglipron也取得了进展，在早期的药代动力学研究中显示出希望。对新冠产品的依赖程度降低，表明辉瑞正在从依赖大流行转向以增长为中心的公司。24年第三季度建议交易区间：28至36美元。积极前景。

Procter & Gamble Co (PG)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $20.53B, -0.1% YoY, miss estimates by $210M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.40, beat estimates by $0.03
• FY25 Guidance: Expect diluted net EPS growth in the range of 10% to 12%; Expect core net EPS growth in the range of 5%-7%, equating to a range of $6.91 to $7.05; Expect headwind of $500mn after-tax from unfavorable commodity costs and unfavorable foreign exchange; Expect adjusted FCF productivity of 90% and expect to pay around $10bn in dividends and to repurchase $6 to $7bn of common shares in FY25.
• Comment: Procter & Gamble reported mixed earnings. Organic sales of its baby-care products declined by a mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year. The company introduced a revamped version of its mid-priced Luvs diapers after market-share losses impacted its baby, feminine, and family care business. However, innovation on Luvs has been limited due to supply chain constraints. P&G has been heavily investing in launching new products across its laundry business, such as Tide Evo detergent tiles and lower-cost Luvs Platinum Protection diapers, to attract price-conscious and environmentally conscious customers. Despite these efforts, the company continues to face challenges from price-sensitive consumers. Several rivals, including Nestle and Unilever, also reported first-half 2024 sales growth below expectations. Nonetheless, improved rate cut expectations and consumer sentiment may boost consumption levels. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $150 to $170. Neutral Outlook.

保洁 (PG)

• 24财年第四季营收：205.3亿美元，同比跌幅0.1%，逊预期2.1亿美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.4美元，超预期0.03美元
• 25财年指引：预计稀释后每股收益净增长率在10%至12%之间；预计核心每股净收益增长在5%-7%之间，相当于6.91美元至7.05美元;预计不利的商品成本和不利的外汇将带来5亿美元的税后阻力；预计调整后的自由现金流生产率为90%，预计在25财年支付约100亿美元的股息，并回购60至70亿美元的普通股。
• 短评：宝洁公司公布的收益喜忧参半。其婴儿护理产品的有机销售额同比下降了个位数。在市场份额损失影响到婴儿、女性和家庭护理业务后，该公司推出了一款改进版的中等价位Luvs尿布。然而，由于供应链的限制，Luvs的创新受到了限制。宝洁一直在大举投资，在其洗衣业务中推出新产品，如汰渍Evo洗涤剂瓷砖和低成本的Luvs白金保护纸尿裤，以吸引对价格敏感和环保意识强的客户。尽管做出了这些努力，该公司仍然面临着来自对价格敏感的消费者的挑战。包括雀巢和联合利华在内的几家竞争对手也公布了2024年上半年的销售增长低于预期。尽管如此，降息预期的改善和消费者信心可能会提振消费水平。25年第一季度建议交易区间：150至170美元。积极前景。

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $5.84B, +9.0% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.69, beat estimates by $0.01
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be approximately $6.7bn vs $6.61bn consensus, plus or minus $300mn, representing a YoY growth of approximately 16% and sequential growth of approximately 15%; Expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 53.5%.
• Comment: AMD reported strong results, with record data centre segment revenue of $2.8 billion, up 115% year-over-year. This growth was driven by a steep increase in AMD Instinct GPU shipments and strong CPU sales, fueled by high AI demand. The client segment, which includes PC chip sales, also performed well, reflecting a recovery in the PC industry, with worldwide PC shipments increasing 3% YoY in 2Q24, according to IDC. However, gaming revenue declined YoY as the sector continues to slow down from the early pandemic sales surge. Despite this, there is optimism for a rebound with upcoming releases like Nintendo’s next console and “Grand Theft Auto VI” from Take-Two Interactive later in 2024. Management remains confident in the company’s future, highlighting expected strong revenue growth in the second half of the year, led by demand for Instinct, EPYC, and Ryzen processors. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $145 to $180. Positive Outlook.

超微半导体 (AMD)

• 24财年第二季营收：58.4亿美元，同比增幅9.0%，超预期1.2亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.69美元，超预期0.01美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计收入约为67亿美元，市场预期为66.1亿美元，上下浮动3亿美元，同比增长约16%，环比增长约15%；预计Non-GAAP毛利率约为53.5%。
• 短评：AMD公布了强劲的业绩，数据中心部门收入达到创纪录的28亿美元，同比增长115%。这一增长是由AMD Instinct GPU出货量的急剧增长和强劲的CPU销售推动的，这是由高人工智能需求推动的。包括个人电脑芯片销售在内的客户端市场也表现良好，反映出个人电脑行业的复苏，据IDC称，24年第二季度全球个人电脑出货量同比增长3%。然而，游戏收入同比下降，因为该行业从早期的疫情销售激增中继续放缓。尽管如此，随着任天堂的下一代主机和Take-Two Interactive在2024年晚些时候发布的“侠盗猎车手VI”等即将到来的反弹，人们对反弹持乐观态度。管理层仍然对公司的未来充满信心，强调下半年预期的强劲收入增长，主要由对Instinct, EPYC和Ryzen处理器需求驱动。24年第三季度建议交易区间：145至180美元。积极前景。

Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $64.7B, flat YoY, beat estimates by $260M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.97, beat estimates by $0.02
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect 1Q25 revenue to be between $63.8B and $64.8B, compared to consensus of $65.07B; Expect Azure to grow between 28% and 29% YoY in constant currency, with Intelligent Cloud revenue between $28.6B and $28.9B, up between 18% and 20%. Personal Computing is forecast to grow between 9% and 12% in constant currency to be between $14.9B and $15.3B, while Productivity and Business Processes is forecast to grow between 10% and 11% in constant currency.
• Comment: Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings, but Azure’s growth fell short of market expectations, rising 29% YoY in 4Q24 compared to the anticipated growth of over 30%. This shortfall indicates challenges in meeting market expectations for its cloud and AI services revenue growth. While the company highlighted a 60% increase in Azure AI customers compared to the previous year, concerns arose over the average spending per client. As key indicators of global AI adoption, the slower-than-expected growth for both Microsoft and Nvidia may suggest that AI’s rapid expansion is beginning to taper off after previously driving double-digit growth in Microsoft’s cloud computing business. Nevertheless, a favourable rate cut outlook could boost business sentiment and accelerate AI adoption. Meanwhile, competitors like Alphabet are experiencing better-than-expected growth in their AI-enhanced cloud and search ad businesses. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $370 to $450. Neutral Outlook.

微软 (MSFT)

• 24财年第四季营收：647亿美元，同比持平，超预期2.6亿美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.97美元，超预期0.02美元
• 25财年第一季指引：预计第一季度营收将在638亿美元至648亿美元之间，而市场预期为650.7亿美元；按固定汇率计算，预计Azure的年增长率将在28%至29%之间，智能云的收入将在286亿至289亿美元之间，增幅在18%至20%之间。按固定汇率计算，个人计算业务预计将增长9%至12%，达到149亿至153亿美元，而生产力和商业处理业务预计将增长10%至11%。
• 短评：微软公布的收益好于预期，但Azure的增长低于市场预期，24年第四季度同比增长29%，而预期增长超过30%。这一缺口表明，在满足市场对其云和人工智能服务收入增长的预期方面存在挑战。虽然该公司强调Azure人工智能客户与去年相比增长了60%，但人们对每个客户的平均支出感到担忧。作为全球人工智能应用的关键指标，微软和英伟达的增长速度都低于预期，这可能表明，人工智能的快速扩张在此前推动微软云计算业务实现两位数增长后，正开始放缓。然而，有利的降息前景可能提振企业信心，并加速人工智能的采用。与此同时，Alphabet等竞争对手在人工智能增强的云和搜索广告业务方面的增长好于预期。25年第一季度建议交易区间：390至450美元。中性前景。

Starbucks Corp (SBUX)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $9.1B, -1.1% YoY, miss estimates by $150M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.93, in-line with estimates
• FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue growth of a low single-digit percentage and earnings per share growth in a range of flat to a low single-digit percentage.
• Comment: Starbucks reported third-quarter revenue of US$9.1bn, falling short of analyst expectations. While profits aligned with Wall Street estimates at US$0.93 per share, driven by operational efficiencies, global sales declined due to weakened consumer spending in the US and China. Same-store sales plummeted 14% in China and declined by 7% internationally, missing expectations. Weakness was particularly pronounced in the Middle East, South Asia, and parts of Europe, exacerbated by consumer boycotts. Starbucks introduced its Siren System plan, updating equipment to speed up service and offering discounts and promotions to attract cost-conscious consumers. The plan was implemented in US stores and will be in less than 10% of global stores by year-end. The company has also expanded mobile ordering options by allowing customers to pay without being reward members. Enhanced app features, including more accurate order ready times, have contributed to reduced customer complaints. Starbucks opened 526 new stores in the quarter and its executives reaffirmed its annual profit forecast. Starbucks confirmed constructive talks with Elliott Investment Management, a shareholder. Starbucks is actively pursuing strategic partnerships to bolster its China operations amid intensifying competition from lower-priced local coffee chains. Despite challenges, the company has observed sequential improvements in average daily transactions and weekly sales within the Chinese market. The upcoming Pumpkin Spice season, coupled with increased promotional activity, could provide a temporary boost to sales in both the US and international markets. However, the full impact of recent strategic changes is likely to materialize over a longer timeframe. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $75 to $85. Positive Outlook.

星巴克 (SBUX)

• 24财年第三季营收：91亿美元，同比跌幅1.1%，逊预期1.5亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.93美元，符合预期
• 24财年指引：预计营收增长率为较低的个位数百分比，每股收益增长率在持平至较低的个位数百分比之间。
• 短评：星巴克公布第三季度收入为91亿美元，低于分析师预期。尽管在运营效率的推动下，该公司每股利润达到了华尔街预期的0.93美元，但由于美国和中国消费者支出疲软，该公司的全球销售额出现了下滑。中国同店销售额暴跌14%，国际市场下滑7%，低于预期。中东、南亚和欧洲部分地区的疲软尤为明显，消费者的抵制加剧了这种疲软。星巴克推出了“Siren系统”计划，更新设备以加快服务速度，并提供折扣和促销活动，以吸引注重成本的消费者。该计划在美国门店实施，到年底将在全球不到10%的门店实施。该公司还扩大了移动订购选项，允许顾客在不成为奖励会员的情况下付款。增强的应用程序功能，包括更准确的订单准备时间，有助于减少客户投诉。星巴克在本季度新开了526家门店，其高管重申了其年度利润预测。星巴克证实与股东埃利奥特投资管理公司进行了建设性的谈判。星巴克正在积极寻求战略合作伙伴关系，以加强其在中国的业务，以应对来自当地低价咖啡连锁店的日益激烈的竞争。尽管面临挑战，但该公司在中国市场的平均日交易量和周销售额连续改善。即将到来的南瓜香料季节，加上促销活动的增加，可能会暂时提振美国和国际市场的销售。然而，最近的战略变化的全面影响可能需要更长的时间才能显现出来。24年第四季度建议交易区间：75至85美元。积极前景。

Arista Networks Inc (ANET)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $1.69B, +15.8% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.10, beat estimates by $0.16
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue between $1.72B to $1.75B vs consensus of $1.72B, non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 63% to 64% and Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 44%.
• Comment: Arista Networks’ second-quarter revenue rose 16% to US$1.69bn, beating the US$1.65bn estimate, benefitting from strong demand from cloud computing firms and strong enterprise demand for powerful new generative artificial intelligence applications. The company reported a net income of US$665.4mn, up from US$491.9mn the previous year, with adjusted earnings of US$2.10 per share, compared to US$1.58 per share last year. Arista forecasted third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates, driven by strong demand for its networking gear from cloud computing and AI applications. This forecast reflects Arista’s significant role in the sector, benefiting from the AI boom. Arista projected third-quarter revenue between US$1.72bn and US$1.75bn, surpassing estimates of US$1.73bn. As data centers evolve into AI-centric hubs, Arista’s networking solutions are poised to benefit from increased demand driven by both cloud infrastructure providers and AI applications. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $300 to $350. Positive Outlook.

Arista 网络 (ANET)

• 24财年第二季营收：169亿美元，同比增幅15.8%，超预期4,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.1美元，超预期0.16美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计收入在17.2亿美元至17.5亿美元之间，而市场预期为17.2亿美元，Non-GAAP毛利率约为63%至64%，Non-GAAP营业利润率约为44%。
• 短评：Arista网络公司第二季度收入增长16%，达到16.9亿美元，超过了16.5亿美元的预期，这得益于云计算公司的强劲需求以及企业对强大的新生成人工智能应用的强劲需求。该公司公布净利润为6.654亿美元，高于去年的4.919亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.10美元，高于去年的1.58美元。由于云计算和人工智能应用对其网络设备的强劲需求，Arista预计第三季度收入将高于华尔街的预期。这一预测反映了Arista在该领域的重要作用，受益于人工智能的繁荣。Arista预计第三季度收入在17.2亿美元至17.5亿美元之间，超过了17.3亿美元的预期。随着数据中心发展成为以人工智能为中心的枢纽，Arista的网络解决方案将从云基础设施提供商和人工智能应用驱动的日益增长的需求中受益。24年第三季度建议交易区间：300至350美元。积极前景。

First Solar Inc (FSLR)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $1.0B, +23.3% YoY, beat estimates by $66.11M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $3.25, beat estimates by $0.54
• FY24 Guidance: Expect full-year EPS guidance between $13.00 to $14.00 and revenue guidance of $4.4B to $4.6B, vs consensus of $13.61 and $4.52B respectively. The company expects volume sold in the range of 15.6 to 16.3 gigawatts, and net cash of US$600M to US$900M.
• Comment: First Solar’s second-quarter profit more than doubled, driven by stable demand for its cadmium telluride solar panels, which do not rely on China-produced polysilicon. The company delivered revenue of US$1.0bn which surpassed analysts’ estimates. US utilities are increasing investments due to projected record power consumption in 2024 and 2025, fuelled by data centres and electric vehicles. First Solar’s net sales increased by 24.6% to US$1.01bn, thanks to higher module sales volumes and prices. The Biden administration’s tariffs on foreign-made solar modules also benefited the company. First Solar, selected as a preferred green-label panel vendor by the US government, reported record production of 3.7 gigawatts and a net income of US$349.4mn, or US$3.25 per share, up from US$170.6mn, or US$1.59 per share, last year. The company has secured 3.6 gigawatts in net bookings this year and a robust pipeline of 75.9 gigawatts in bookings, extending through 2030, as it capitalizes on the anticipated surge in power demand to support new data centers, reshoring of manufacturing, and cryptocurrency mining. Despite near-term concerns stemming from the US elections, the long-term growth trajectory for solar energy remains intact, driven by the increasing need for clean and renewable power sources. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $260. Positive Outlook.

第一太阳能 (FSLR)

• 24财年第二季营收：10亿美元，同比增幅23.3%，超预期6,611万美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：3.25美元，超预期0.54美元
• 24财年指引：预计全年每股收益指引在13美元至14美元之间，收入指引在44亿美元至46亿美元之间，而市场预期分别为13.61美元和45.2亿美元。该公司预计销售量在15.6至16.3千兆瓦之间，净现金为6亿至9亿美元。
• 短评：第一太阳能第二季度利润增长逾一倍，受其碲化镉(cadmium telluride)太阳能电池板需求稳定的推动。这种太阳能电池板不依赖于中国生产的多晶硅。该公司实现了10亿美元的收入，超出了分析师的预期。由于数据中心和电动汽车的推动，预计2024年和2025年的用电量将创下纪录，美国公用事业公司正在增加投资。得益于更高的组件销量和价格，第一太阳能的净销售额增长了24.6%，达到10.1亿美元。拜登政府对外国制造的太阳能组件征收关税也使该公司受益。第一太阳能公司被美国政府选为首选绿色标签电池板供应商，其产量达到创纪录的3.7吉瓦，净利润为3.494亿美元，合每股3.25美元，高于去年的1.706亿美元，合每股1.59美元。该公司今年已经获得了3.6吉瓦的净预订，并将在2030年之前获得75.9吉瓦的强劲预订，因为它利用了预期的电力需求激增来支持新的数据中心、制造业回流和加密货币挖矿。尽管美国大选引发了短期担忧，但在对清洁和可再生能源日益增长的需求的推动下，太阳能的长期增长轨迹仍然保持不变。24年第三季度建议交易区间：200至260美元。积极前景。