Technical Analysis – 25 July 2024
United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Eversource Energy (ES US)
- Shares closed at a high since Jan 24 with more volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 62.50, Target 66.50, Stop 60.50
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE US)
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 74.50, Target 78.50, Stop 72.50
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd. (YZJSGD SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 2.38, Target 2.52, Stop 2.31
CSE Global Ltd. (CSE SP)
- Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with a surge in volume. 50dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 0.470 Target 0.500, Stop 0.455
Bank of Communications Co Ltd (3328 HK)
- Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume.
- RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
- Long – Entry 5.76, Target 6.18, Stop 5.55
Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (1658 HK)
- Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume.
- RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
- Long – Entry 4.26, Target 4.60, Stop 4.09
Ford Motor Co (F)
- 2Q24 Revenue: $44.81B, +5.6% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
- 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.47, miss estimates by $0.21
- 2Q24 Dividend: Ford Motor declares $0.15/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 4.39%; Payable Sept. 3; for shareholders of record Aug. 7; ex-div Aug. 7.
- FY24 Guidance: Expectations for FY24 adjusted EBIT unchanged at $10bn to $12bn; adjusted FCF outlook raised $1bn, to between $7.5bn to $8.5bn.
- Comment: Ford reported a weak set of earnings as the company saw higher costs connected to product launches and warranty repairs for older model vehicles. However, recent initiatives to improve quality and vehicle launches are paying off and are expected to help reduce future warranty costs. The company saw improved profitability in its commercial division, but its ICE division saw profitability drop, and its EV segment saw a loss amid ongoing industry-wide pricing pressure. The company expects its EV segment to continue to report a loss as a result of continued pricing pressures and investments in next-generation EVs. Management highlighted that Ford+’s restructuring plan remains on track to make the automaker more profitable. Compared to General Motors which raised its guidance for the second time this year recently, Ford kept its revenue outlook unchanged, indicating that the company is still likely to face more headwinds and cost pressures for the rest of 2024. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $10.0 to $13.0. Negative Outlook.
福特汽车 (F)
- 24财年第二季营收：448.1亿美元，同比增幅5.6%，逊预期7,000万美元
- 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.47美元，逊预期0.21美元
- 24财年第二季股息：福特汽车宣布每股0.15美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期股息率为4.39%；9月3日为付息款日；8月7日为股东登记日和除息日。
- 24财年指引：24财年调整后息税前利润预期保持不变，为100亿至120亿美元；调整后的自由现金流预期上调10亿美元，至75亿至85亿美元之间。
- 短评：福特公布了一组疲软的收益，因为该公司看到了与产品发布和老款汽车保修维修相关的成本上升。然而，最近提高质量和推出新车型的举措正在取得成效，预计将有助于降低未来的保修成本。该公司商业部门的盈利能力有所改善，但内燃机部门的盈利能力下降，电动汽车部门在持续的全行业定价压力下出现亏损。由于持续的价格压力和对下一代电动汽车的投资，该公司预计其电动汽车部门将继续报告亏损。管理层强调，福特+的重组计划仍在正轨上，将使该汽车制造商更加盈利。与通用汽车公司今年第二次提高业绩预期相比，福特公司保持其收入前景不变，这表明该公司在2024年剩余时间内仍可能面临更多阻力和成本压力。24年第三季度建议交易区间：10.0至13.0美元。负面前景。
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
- 2Q24 Revenue: $15.8B, +1.9% YoY, beat estimates by $180M
- 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.99, beat estimates by $0.19
- FY24 Guidance: Expect constant currency revenue growth consistent with its mid-single digit model; Expect more than $12bn in free cash flow.
- Comment: IBM reported results that exceeded expectations, driven by increased AI-related spending from clients adopting the technology. The company continues to attract clients with its expertise in enterprise AI. IBM’s generative AI business has also shown significant progress, growing to over $2bn since the launch of Watsonx a year ago. The company remains optimistic about the positive macro-outlook for technology spending. However, IBM’s consulting revenue dropped about 1% to $5.18bn as clients reduced discretionary spending and short-term consulting projects due to prolonged high interest rates and inflationary pressures. Management noted that this shift is expected as clients prioritize technology spending for competitive advantage. IBM is now slightly more optimistic about its full-year free cash flow, projecting over $12bn, up from approximately $12bn previously. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $185 to $210. Positive Outlook.
国际商用机器 (IBM)
- 24财年第二季营收：158亿美元，同比增幅1.9%，超预期1.8亿美元
- 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.99美元，超预期0.19美元
- 24财年指引：预计按货币计算的收入将保持中等个位数的增长模式；预计自由现金流将超过120亿美元
- 短评：IBM公布的业绩超出预期，这得益于采用人工智能技术的客户增加了与人工智能相关的支出。该公司继续以其在企业人工智能方面的专业知识吸引客户。IBM的生成式人工智能业务也取得了重大进展，自一年前推出Watsonx以来，该业务已增长至逾20亿美元。该公司仍对技术支出的积极宏观前景持乐观态度。然而，由于长期的高利率和通胀压力，客户减少了可自由支配的支出和短期咨询项目，IBM的咨询收入下降了约1%，至51.8亿美元。管理层指出，随着客户优先考虑技术支出以获得竞争优势，这种转变是意料之中的。IBM现在对其全年自由现金流略微乐观，预计将超过120亿美元，高于此前的约120亿美元。24年第三季度建议交易区间：185至210美元。积极前景。
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)
- 2Q24 Revenue: $2.76B, +8.7% YoY, miss estimates by $60M
- 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.55, miss estimates by $0.01
- FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided
- Comment: Las Vegas Sands reported results that fell short of market expectations, despite showing YoY growth in both the Macao and Singapore markets. In Macao, the recovery continues, but visitation remains well below pre-pandemic levels, and consumption is weak due to economic uncertainty in China. In contrast, Marina Bay Sands in Singapore delivered strong financial and operational performance, with its new suite products and enhanced service offerings positioning the company for further growth as travel and tourism in Asia progress. The company remains optimistic about achieving industry-leading growth in both markets over the coming years as it continues to execute substantial capital investment programs in Macao and Singapore. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $33 to $43. Neutral Outlook.
金沙集团 (LVS)
- 24财年第二季营收：27.6亿美元，同比增幅8.7%，逊预期6,000万美元
- 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.55美元，超预期0.01美元
- 24财年指引：不提供指引。
- 短评：拉斯维加斯金沙集团公布的业绩不及市场预期，尽管澳门和新加坡市场均呈现同比增长。在澳门，复苏仍在继续，但游客人数仍远低于大流行前的水平，而且由于中国经济的不确定性，消费疲软。相比之下，新加坡滨海湾金沙凭借其新的套房产品和增强的服务产品，在亚洲旅游业的发展中为公司的进一步发展奠定了坚实的财务和运营业绩。随着公司继续在澳门和新加坡实施大量资本投资项目，公司对未来几年在这两个市场实现行业领先的增长持乐观态度。24年第三季度建议交易区间：33至43美元。中性前景。
General Dynamics Corp. (GD)
- 2Q24 Revenue: $11.98B, +18% YoY, beat estimates by $480M
- 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $3.26, miss estimates by $0.07
- FY24 Guidance: Expect combat systems’ annual revenue at $8.7B, a $200M hike from its prior forecast. It also lifted the full-year revenue forecast for its marine systems segment, which builds nuclear-powered submarines and ships, by $1B and now expects $13.4B to $13.8B. Expects total revenue for the year coming in at $47.8B to $48.2B, up from its previous forecast of $46.6B to $46.7B.
- Comment: General Dynamics reported mixed results but saw a significant revenue increase due to higher aircraft deliveries. Although the company delivered 50% more business jets in 2Q24, the number of high-end jets delivered was lower than expected. Persistent supply chain issues also caused delivery delays. Despite these challenges, the defense business continued to grow, and the company plans to accelerate its G700 deliveries to meet rising demand driven by the current threat environment. While cost pressures persist due to constraints on the U.S. defense budget, defense firms are experiencing strong demand for military equipment amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Similar to its peer Lockheed Martin, the company also raised its FY24 guidance, indicating that the company is seeing positive tailwinds in the aerospace and defense sector in the near term. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $265 to $305. Neutral Outlook.
通用动力 (GD)
- 24财年第二季营收：119.8亿美元，同比增幅18.0%，超预期4.8亿美元
- 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：3.26美元，逊预期0.07美元
- 24财年指引：预计作战系统的年收入将达到87亿美元，比之前的预测高出2亿美元。该公司还将其海洋系统部门(建造核动力潜艇和船舶)的全年收入预测上调了10亿美元，目前预计为134亿美元至138亿美元。预计今年的总收入将达到478亿美元至482亿美元，高于此前预测的466亿美元至467亿美元。
- 短评：通用动力公司报告了喜忧参半的结果，但由于飞机交付量的增加，收入显著增加。尽管该公司在24年第二季度交付的公务机增加了50%，但交付的高端飞机数量低于预期。持续的供应链问题也导致了交货延迟。尽管面临这些挑战，但国防业务仍在继续增长，该公司计划加快G700的交付，以满足当前威胁环境下不断增长的需求。尽管由于美国国防预算的限制，成本压力持续存在，但在地缘政治冲突不断的情况下，国防公司对军事装备的需求强劲。与同行洛克希德·马丁公司(Lockheed Martin)类似，该公司也上调了24财年的预期，这表明该公司在近期内看到了航空航天和国防领域的积极利好。24年第三季度建议交易区间：265至305美元。中性前景。
