KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 18 July 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Kellanova (K US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 200dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 58.4, Target 62.4, Stop 56.4
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Pepsico, Inc. (PEP US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 168.5, Target 180.5, Stop 162.5

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Q&M Dental Group Ltd. (QNM SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with higher volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.285, Target 0.315, Stop 0.270

First Resources Ltd. (FR SP)

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  • Shares closed at a high since Feb 24. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.47, Target 1.57, Stop 1.42

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a two-month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 40.6, Target 43.8, Stop 39.0
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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd (3692 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a one-month high above the 50dEMA. The 5dEMA closed above the 50dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 16.8, Target 18.0, Stop 16.2

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Bank of America Corp (BAC)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $25.4B, +0.8% YoY, beat estimates by $200M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.83, beat estimates by $0.03
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect 3 potential 25 basis points rate cuts in 2H24 in September, November and December. In 4Q24, expect NII to rise to $14.5B, above estimates of $14.4B pricing in the 3 potential rate cuts and repricing of mortgage and auto loans.
  • Comment: Bank of America’s second-quarter profit declined due to higher deposit costs affecting its interest income. However, it exceeded analysts’ revenue and EPS expectations thanks to strong investment banking and trading performance. The bank forecast better-than-expected net interest income (NII) for the fourth quarter, anticipating three Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of the year. Its CEO noted continued growth in consumer checking accounts, while investment banking fees rose by 29% to US$1.6bn, and sales and trading revenue grew by 7% to US$4.7bn. Despite a 3% drop in NII to US$13.7bn and higher provisions for credit losses, management predicts a recovery, forecasting NII to rise to US$14.5bn in the fourth quarter. As investors anticipate the first rate cut in the second half, Bank of America stands to benefit from the resurgence of capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, and sales and trading revenue. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $42 to $50. Positive Outlook.

美国银行 (BAC)

  • 24财年第二季营收：254亿美元，同比增幅0.8%，超预期2.0亿美元
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.83美元，超预期0.03美元
  • 24财年指引：预计今年下半年，9月、11月和12月可能会有3次25个基点的降息。在24年第四季度，预计净利息收入将上升至145亿美元，高于3次潜在降息以及抵押贷款和汽车贷款重新定价的预期144亿美元。
  • 短评：由于存款成本上升影响了利息收入，美国银行第二季度利润下降。然而，由于投行业务和交易表现强劲，该公司的营收和每股收益超出了分析师的预期。该银行预计第四季度的净利息收入(NII)好于预期，预计今年下半年美联储将三次降息。其首席执行官指出，消费者支票账户持续增长，而投资银行费用增长29%，达到16亿美元，销售和交易收入增长7%，达到47亿美元。尽管NII下降了3%，降至137亿美元，信贷损失拨备也有所增加，但管理层预计NII将出现复苏，预计第四季度NII将升至145亿美元。在投资者预期美联储将在下半年首次降息之际，美国银行将受益于资本市场、并购以及销售和交易收入的复苏。24年第三季度建议交易区间：42至50美元。中性前景。

Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $98.9B, +6.4% YoY, in-line with estimates
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.80, beat estimates by $0.17
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect FY24 earnings to be between $15.95 to $16.40 per share to reflect the classification to be held for sale of its remaining South America operations and the estimated Change Healthcare cyberattack impacts. The company completed the sale of its larger Brazilian operations in 1Q24. It also affirmed the adjusted net earnings outlook of $27.50 to $28.00 per share vs consensus of $27.69.
  • Comment: UnitedHealth reported a second-quarter profit of US$6.80 per share, beating estimates and revenue in line with estimates. The company revised its annual earnings forecast due to a February hack at its Change Healthcare unit but maintained its full-year profit outlook. The cyberattack disrupted payments to doctors and healthcare facilities and elevated medical costs, leading to a 30-cent per share impact on its FY24 adjusted profit. Despite these challenges, it reported a 12% revenue increase in its Optum services unit. The company’s medical care ratio was higher than expected at 85.1% in Q2 with costs expected to stabilize by 2025. The hack, one of the worst in the American healthcare industry, is still impacting billing channels and higher medical costs, and possibly exposing data from one-third of Americans. In spite of the significant impact of the hack, which resulted in increased costs and other difficulties for UnitedHealth, the company has reaffirmed its full-year adjusted profit forecast of between US$27.50 to US$28.00 per share, demonstrating confidence in its performance for the year. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $520 to $600. Positive Outlook.

联合健康 (UNH)

  • 24财年第二季营收：98.9亿美元，同比增幅6.4%，符合预期
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.8美元，超预期0.17美元
  • 24财年指引：预计24财年每股收益将在15.95美元至16.40美元之间，以反映其剩余南美业务的出售分类以及预计的Change Healthcare网络攻击影响。该公司于24年第一季度完成了其较大的巴西业务的出售。它还确认了调整后的每股净收益预期为27.50美元至28.00美元，而市场预期为27.69美元。
  • 短评：联合健康报告第二季度每股利润为6.80美元，超过预期，收入与预期相符。该公司修正了其年度盈利预期，原因是其Change Healthcare部门2月份遭到黑客攻击，但维持其全年盈利预期。网络攻击中断了对医生和医疗机构的支付，提高了医疗成本，导致其24财年调整后的每股利润受到30%的影响。尽管面临这些挑战，但Optum服务部门的收入增长了12%。该公司第二季度的医疗保健比率高于预期，为85.1%，预计到2025年成本将稳定下来。这次黑客攻击是美国医疗保健行业最严重的黑客攻击之一，目前仍在影响账单渠道和更高的医疗成本，并可能暴露三分之一美国人的数据。尽管受到黑客攻击的严重影响，导致联合健康公司的成本增加和其他困难，但该公司重申其全年调整后的每股利润预测在27.50美元至28.00美元之间，表明对其全年业绩的信心。24年第三季度建议交易区间：520至600美元。积极前景。

Morgan Stanley (MS)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $15.0B, +11.1% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.82, beat estimates by $0.17
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Dividend: Raise quarterly dividend to $0.925 per share from the previous $0.75 per share.
  • Comment: Morgan Stanley’s second-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations due to a significant rise in investment banking and trading revenues, despite muted results in wealth management. The bank reported a 23% increase in institutional securities revenue and a 51% surge in investment banking revenue, driven by a resurgence in equity and fixed-income underwriting. Its CEO and CFO expressed optimism about future dealmaking and healthy pipelines. Wealth management revenue growth slowed to 2%, with net new assets falling compared to the previous year and interest income plunged 17% YoY. Net income rose to US$3.1bn, or US$1.82 per share, surpassing analyst expectations. The bank announced a quarterly dividend increase to US$0.925 per share from the previous US$0.75 per share. The investment banking division has shown strong performance, but there is weaker growth in wealth management, although it is within the expected range of 5% to 7% annually for the bank. In the long term, the wealth management division might see further improvement once the interest rate cut cycle begins. In the short term, the bank will continue to benefit from the revenue generated by its institutional securities division due to improvements in capital markets. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $100 to $115. Positive Outlook.

摩根斯坦利 (MS)

  • 24财年第二季营收：150亿美元，同比增幅11.1%，超预期7,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.82美元，超预期0.17美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 股息：将季度股息从之前的每股0.75美元提高至每股0.925美元。
  • 短评：摩根士丹利第二季度营收和利润超出预期，原因是投行和交易业务收入大幅增长，尽管财富管理业务表现平平。该行报告称，受股票和固定收益承销业务复苏的推动，机构证券收入增长23%，投资银行业务收入激增51%。该公司首席执行官和首席财务官对未来的交易和健康的渠道表示乐观。财富管理收入增速放缓至2%，新增资产净值同比下降，利息收入同比暴跌17%。净利润增至31亿美元，合每股1.82美元，超出分析师预期。该银行宣布将季度股息从之前的每股0.75美元增加到每股0.925美元。投资银行业务表现强劲，但财富管理业务的增长较弱，尽管该行的年增长率在5%至7%的预期范围内。从长期来看，一旦降息周期开始，财富管理部门可能会进一步改善。短期内，由于资本市场的改善，该银行将继续受益于其机构证券部门产生的收入。24年第三季度建议交易区间：100至115美元。积极前景。

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $4.69B, +0.6% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.73, beat estimates by $0.01
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: The company reported mixed results. Total client assets reached a record $9.4 trillion, up 17% year-over-year, and core net new assets also rose 17% to $61.2 billion, indicating continued momentum. However, bank deposits fell as customers moved their money from low-yield accounts to higher-yield options, putting pressure on earnings due to increased short-term borrowings needed to cover deposit outflows. Net interest revenue declined 6% year-over-year to $2.16 billion. Additionally, fewer clients opened new brokerage accounts in the second quarter than expected, highlighting the competitive retail brokerage market. Looking ahead, the company plans to adjust its long-term strategy to protect profits by relying more on off-balance sheet arrangements for customer deposits, which may reduce the size of the bank. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $60 to $74. Neutral Outlook.

嘉信理财 (SCHW)

  • 24财年第二季营收：46.9亿美元，同比增幅0.6%，逊预期1,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.73美元，超预期0.01美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：该公司公布的业绩喜忧参半。客户总资产达到创纪录的9.4万亿美元，同比增长17%，核心净新增资产也增长17%，至612亿美元，表明增长势头持续。然而，随着客户将资金从低收益账户转移到高收益选择，银行存款出现下降，由于需要增加短期借款来弥补存款流出，这给收益带来了压力。净利息收入同比下降6%，至21.6亿美元。此外，第二季度新开经纪账户的客户少于预期，突显了零售经纪市场的竞争。展望未来，该公司计划调整其长期战略，通过更多地依赖于客户存款的表外安排来保护利润，这可能会缩小银行的规模。24年第三季度建议交易区间：100至115美元。积极前景。

Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $1.23B, +23.0% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.76, beat estimates by $0.02
  • 2Q24 Dividend: Interactive Brokers Group declared a $0.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 0.81%; Payable Sept. 13; for shareholders of record Aug. 30; ex-div Aug. 30.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: The company reported earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by increased customer trading volume. There was a 28% rise in customer accounts, bringing the total to 2.92mn. Daily average revenue trades (DARTs) also grew, reaching 2.39mn, up from 2.35mn in 1Q24 and 1.87mn in 2Q23. This upward trend is expected to continue as anticipated rate cuts may drive more trading activity. Additionally, the company’s net interest income grew to $792mn from $694mn a year ago. However, the company incurred a $48mn loss due to a share price glitch involving Berkshire Hathaway at the New York Stock Exchange. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $114 to $134. Neutral Outlook.

摩根斯坦利 (MS)

  • 24财年第二季调整后营收：150亿美元，同比增幅11.1%，超预期7,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.82美元，超预期0.17美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 股息：将季度股息从之前的每股0.75美元提高至每股0.925美元。
  • 短评：摩根士丹利第二季度营收和利润超出预期，原因是投行和交易业务收入大幅增长，尽管财富管理业务表现平平。该行报告称，受股票和固定收益承销业务复苏的推动，机构证券收入增长23%，投资银行业务收入激增51%。该公司首席执行官和首席财务官对未来的交易和健康的渠道表示乐观。财富管理收入增速放缓至2%，新增资产净值同比下降，利息收入同比暴跌17%。净利润增至31亿美元，合每股1.82美元，超出分析师预期。该银行宣布将季度股息从之前的每股0.75美元增加到每股0.925美元。投资银行业务表现强劲，但财富管理业务的增长较弱，尽管该行的年增长率在5%至7%的预期范围内。从长期来看，一旦降息周期开始，财富管理部门可能会进一步改善。短期内，由于资本市场的改善，该银行将继续受益于其机构证券部门产生的收入。24年第三季度建议交易区间：100至115美元。积极前景。