Technical Analysis – 16 July 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN US)

• Shares closed at a higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 238, Target 268, Stop 223

Marathon Digital Holdings. (MARA US)

• Shares closed at a high since Mar 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 24.0, Target 28.0, Stop 22.0

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Nanofilm Technologies International Ltd. (NANO SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Dec 2023 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 0.92, Target 1.04, Stop 0.86

Centurion Corp Ltd. (CENT SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 0.610, Target 0.670, Stop 0.580

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China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 28.7, Target 30.3, Stop 27.9

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd (916 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
• Long – Entry 7.24, Target 7.80, Stop 6.96

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $50.2B, +22% YoY, beat estimates by $4.54B
• 2Q24 non-GAAP EPS: $4.40, miss estimates by $0.11
• FY24 Guidance: Affirm full-year net interest income guidance of $91B and adjusted expense of $92B. Expects card services net charge-off rate to be 3.4%.
• Comment: In 2Q24, JPMorgan Chase reported revenue of US$50.2bn and record second-quarter profit, driven by a resurgence in dealmaking and strong capital markets, with investment banking revenue growing 46% YoY to US$2.5bn. The bank’s overall profits hit an all-time high, partly due to one-time accounting gains related to Visa. Despite robust results, its CEO expressed caution about economic risks like inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical instability. JPMorgan’s commercial and investment banking revenue for the first half reached a record US$35.5bn, with trading revenues also increasing. Net interest income (NII) rose 4% to US$22.9bn, benefiting from elevated interest rates, and profit rose 25% to US$18.15bn. However, the bank set aside US$3.1bn for credit losses due to potential loan deterioration. While US consumer finances remained strong, higher core costs and provisions could impact the company’s profitability alongside the potential NII decline due to lowered interest rates. Succession planning remains in focus and several potential successors have been identified for the CEO who is expected to step down within five years. JPMorgan plans to increase its common dividend for the second time this year, about a 19% cumulative increase. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $195 to $220. Neutral Outlook.

摩根大通 (JPM)

• 24财年第二季营收：502亿美元，同比增幅22.0%，超预期45.4亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.4美元，逊预期0.11美元
• 24财年第二季指引：确认全年净利息收入指引为910亿美元，调整后费用指引为920亿美元。预计信用卡服务净冲销率为3.4%。
• 短评：在并购交易复苏和资本市场强劲的推动下，摩根大通第二季度营收达到502亿美元，第二季度利润创历史新高，其中投行业务营收同比增长46%，至25亿美元。该行整体利润创历史新高，部分原因是与Visa相关的一次性会计收益。尽管业绩强劲，但该公司首席执行官对通胀、高利率和地缘政治不稳定等经济风险表示谨慎。摩根大通上半年的商业和投资银行业务收入达到创纪录的355亿美元，交易收入也在增长。净利息收入(NII)增长4%至229亿美元，受益于利率上升，利润增长25%至181.5亿美元。不过，该行拨备了31亿美元，以应对可能出现的贷款恶化造成的信贷损失。尽管美国消费者财务状况依然强劲，但核心成本和拨备的增加可能会影响该公司的盈利能力，同时利率下调可能导致NII下降。继任计划仍然是人们关注的焦点，预计将在五年内卸任的首席执行官已经确定了几位潜在的继任者。摩根大通计划今年第二次增加普通股股息，累计增幅约为19%。24年第三季度建议交易区间：195至225美元。中性前景。

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)

• 2Q24 Adjusted Revenue: $20.69B, +0.8% YoY, beat estimates by $460M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.33, beat estimates by $0.05
• FY24 Guidance: Expect net interest income to fall 8% to 9% from FY23’s $52.4B compared with prior guidance of a 7% to 9% decline. Not interest expense increased to $54B from prior guidance of $52.6B due to higher revenue related compensation expense as equity markets outperformed expectation, operating losses and other customer remediation-related expenses and the FDIC special assessment off $336M 1H24.
• Comment: Despite beating second quarter revenue estimates, Wells Fargo’s Q2 profit declined and missed analysts’ estimates for interest income due to higher deposit costs amid intense competition. Net interest income (NII) dropped 9% YoY to US$11.92bn, below expectations. The bank revised a forecasted annual NII decline of 8% to 9%. Its CEO noted a strong US economy but warned of risks from high inflation and interest rates. Deposit costs rose to 1.84% from 1.13% a year earlier. Despite these challenges, profit beat expectations, aided by a 38% rise in investment banking fees. Net income slightly decreased to US$4.91bn. Provision for credit losses was US$1.24bn. Noninterest income rose to US$8.77bn. Despite strong performance in investment advisory, trading, and investment banking fees, consumer banking, and commercial banking revenues declined. Loans and average deposits slightly decreased. Return on equity increased to 11.5%. Wells Fargo plans to buy back shares in 2H24. The bank continues to face constraints from an asset cap due to past regulatory issues, with ongoing efforts to improve its control environment. Looking ahead, we anticipate that the potential growth in its fee-based revenue may not be able to offset the decline in net interest income and increase in net charge-offs. Wells Fargo also expects to increase Q3 dividend by 14%. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $52 to $60. Negative Outlook.

富国银行 (WFC)

• 24财年第二季调整后营收：206.9亿美元，同比增幅0.8%，超预期4.6亿美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.33美元，超预期0.05美元
• 24财年指引：预计净利息收入将较23财年的524亿美元下降8%至9%，而此前的指导意见为下降7%至9%。利息支出从此前的526亿美元上调至54亿美元，这是因为随着股市表现超出预期，与营收相关的薪酬支出增加，以及运营损失和其他客户补救相关费用，以及美国联邦存款保险公司特别评估减少了24财年上半年的3.36亿美元。
• 短评：尽管第二季营收超出预期，但富国银行第二季获利下滑，且利息收入低于分析师预期，因激烈竞争导致存款成本上升。净利息收入(NII)同比下降9%，至119.2亿美元，低于预期。该行将NII年度降幅预期从8%修正至9%。该公司首席执行官指出，美国经济强劲，但警告称存在高通胀和高利率的风险。存款成本从上年同期的1.13%升至1.84%。尽管面临这些挑战，但在投资银行费用上涨38%的帮助下，利润还是超出了预期。净利润小幅下降至49.1亿美元。信贷损失拨备为12.4亿美元。非利息收入增至87.7亿美元。尽管在投资咨询、交易和投资银行费用方面表现强劲，但消费者银行业务和商业银行业务收入有所下降。贷款和平均存款略有下降。股本回报率上升至11.5%。富国银行计划在2009年下半年回购股票。由于过去的监管问题，该银行继续面临资产上限的限制，并正在努力改善其控制环境。展望未来，我们预计其收费收入的潜在增长可能无法抵消净利息收入的下降和净冲销的增加。富国银行也预计第三季度股息将增加14%。24年第三季度建议交易区间：52至60美元。负面前景。

Citigroup Inc (C)

• 2Q24 Adjusted Revenue: $20.1B, +3.6% YoY, in-line with estimates
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.52, beat estimates by $0.11
• FY24 Guidance: Re-iterate FY2024 Guidance. Expects revenue between $80B to $81B; Net interest income expected to be “modestly lower” YoY; FY24 Expenses excluding FDIC special assessment and civil money penalties, unchanged at $53.5B to $53.8B.
• Comment: Citibank reported earnings that surpassed expectations, featuring increased revenue and a 2.0% YoY decline in expenses. The company experienced ongoing growth in its services sector, fueled by strong fee growth, heightened cross-border payment activity, and the onboarding of new clients. Looking ahead, Citibank anticipates further expansion in its investment banking services due to favorable secondary markets and lower implied interest rates. Additionally, the company announced a $1bn share buyback plan for the current quarter. However, Citibank reported higher losses in its credit card division, attributed to a rise in delinquent borrowers. The company is also facing a $136mn regulatory fine for failing to meet the terms of a 2020 agreement with US banking regulators to enhance data management and risk controls. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $58 to $70. Neutral Outlook.

花旗银行 (C)

• 24财年第二季调整后营收：201亿美元，同比增幅3.6%，符合预期
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.52美元，超预期0.11美元
• 24财年指引：重申2024财年指导。预计营收在800亿至810亿美元之间；净利息收入预计同比“小幅下降”；不包括美国联邦存款保险公司特别评估和民事罚款在内的24财年费用，不变，为535亿至538亿美元。
• 短评：花旗银行公布的收益超出预期，收入增加，支出同比下降2.0%。由于收费增长强劲、跨境支付活动增加以及新客户的加入，该公司在服务领域实现了持续增长。展望未来，由于有利的二级市场和较低的隐含利率，花旗银行预计其投资银行服务将进一步扩大。此外，该公司还宣布了本季度10亿美元的股票回购计划。然而，花旗银行报告其信用卡部门的亏损增加，原因是拖欠借款人增加。该公司还面临1.36亿美元的监管罚款，原因是未能履行2020年与美国银行业监管机构达成的加强数据管理和风险控制协议的条款。24年第三季度建议交易区间：58至70美元。中性前景。