KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 3 June 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Under Armour, Inc. (UAA US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 7.10, Target 7.60, Stop 6.85
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Nike, Inc. (NKE US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 94.6, Target 99.6, Stop 92.1

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Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd. (STE SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 4.15, Target 4.35, Stop 4.05

SIA Engineering Ltd. (SIE SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 2.33, Target 2.43, Stop 2.28

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China Mobile Ltd (941 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 74.2, Target 80.0, Stop 71.3
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China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd (762 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA with rising volume.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.40, Target 6.92, Stop 6.14

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Kohls Corp. (KSS)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $3.38B, -5.3% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 1Q24 EPS: -$0.24, not comparable to consensus of $0.06
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales to decline between a range of 2% to 4%; comparable sales to decline between a range of 1% to 3%; Operating margin in the range of 3.0% to 3.5%; Diluted EPS in the range of $1.25 to $1.85; CAPEX of approximate $500mn, including expansion of Sephora partnership and other store-related investments.
  • 1Q24 Dividend: The company declared a 1Q24 dividend on the company’s common stock of $0.50 per share. The dividend is payable June 26, 2024 to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 12,2024.
  • Comment: Kohl’s reported weak results and lowered its FY24 forecast. While revenue exceeded market expectations, earnings significantly missed. The company cited slower sales due to tough comparisons, noting higher-than-usual clearance levels last year as part of an inventory cleanup and turnaround plan. Strong sales trends in January and February weakened in the last five weeks as poor weather deterred customers from buying spring clothing. Additionally, consumer spending remains pressured, particularly among middle-income customers, due to economic uncertainty. Despite these challenges, the women’s category and Sephora in-store shops showed strength. Kohl’s plans to open 140 more Sephora shops, mostly in the second quarter, and announced in March the addition of Babies R Us in-store outposts to about 200 locations. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $18 to $25. Neutral Outlook.

柯尔百货 (KSS)

  • 24财年第一季营收：33.8亿美元，同比跌幅5.3%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季每股亏损：0.24美元，超预期0.06美元
  • 24财年指引：预计净销售额将下降2%至4%；可比销售额将下降1%至3%；营业利润率在3.0%至3.5%之间；稀释每股收益在1.25美元至1.85美元之间；资本支出约5亿美元，包括扩大丝芙兰合作伙伴关系和其他门店相关投资。
  • 24财年第一季度股息：公司宣布第一季度普通股股息为每股0.50美元。6月26日为付息日，6月12日为股东登记日。
  • 短评：柯尔百货公布了疲弱的业绩，并下调了24财年的预期。虽然收入超出了市场预期，但收益却明显低于市场预期。该公司表示，销售放缓的原因是比较困难，并指出去年的清仓水平高于往常，这是库存清理和周转计划的一部分。过去五周，1月和2月强劲的销售趋势有所减弱，因为恶劣的天气阻止了消费者购买春装。此外，由于经济的不确定性，消费者支出仍然受到压力，尤其是中等收入消费者。尽管面临这些挑战，但女装品类和丝芙兰的实体店表现出了实力。柯尔百货计划在第二季度再开140家丝芙兰门店，并于今年3月宣布在约200家门店增设Babies R Us门店。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：18美至25美元。中性前景。

Dollar General Corp. (DG)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $9.91B, +6.1% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.65, beat estimates by $0.07
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect same-store sales growth in the low 2% range, and diluted EPS in the range of $1.70 to $1.85. FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales growth in the range of approximate 6.0% to 7.0%; same-store sales growth in the range of 2.0% to 2.7%; Expect diluted EPS in the range of approximate $6.80 to $7.55.
  • Comment: Dollar General reported better-than-expected results but warned that customers will likely remain price-sensitive throughout the year, impacting demand for more profitable discretionary items amid ongoing inflationary pressures on household budgets. This is expected to affect margins. The company provided weaker-than-expected guidance for Q2 2024 despite efforts to sell relevant merchandise, expand private-label offerings, and increase store staffing. Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest point since the start of the year in May, highlighting further headwinds in consumer spending amid economic uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $117 to $137. Neutral Outlook.

达乐 (DG)

  • 24财年第一季营收：99.1美元，同比增幅6.1%，超预期1,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：1.65美元，超预期0.07美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计同店销售额增幅在2%左右，摊薄后每股收益在1.70美元至1.85美元之间。24财年指引：预计净销售增长范围约为6.0%至7.0%；同店销售增长率在2.0%至2.7%之间；预计稀释每股收益在约6.80美元到7.55美元区间。
  • 短评：达乐公司公布了好于预期的业绩，但警告称，消费者全年可能仍将对价格敏感，在家庭预算面临持续通胀压力的情况下，这将影响对利润更高的非必需品的需求。预计这将影响利润率。尽管该公司努力销售相关商品，扩大自有品牌产品，并增加门店人员，但其2024年第二季度的指引低于预期。消费者信心指数在5月份跌至年初以来的最低点，突显出在经济不确定性和降息预期的背景下，消费者支出面临进一步阻力。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：117美至137美元。中性前景。

Best Buy Co Inc. (BBY)

  • 1Q25 Revenue: $8.85B, -6.5% YoY, miss estimates by $120M
  • 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.20, beat estimates by $0.13
  • 1Q25 Dividend: Best Buy declares $0.94/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 5.23%. Payable July 11; to shareholders of record June 20; ex-div June 20.
  • 2Q25 Guidance: Expect comparable sales to decline by approximately 3% and non-GAAP operating income rate to be approx. 3.5%. FY25 guidance: Maintained its FY25 guidance. Expects revenue trending to the midpoint of its guidance of $41.3bn to $42.6bn; Comparable sales of (3.0%) to 0.0%; Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.75 to $6.20; Capital expenditures of $750 to $800 million.
  • Comment: Best Buy reported mixed results. Revenue missed expectations due to continued weak demand for consumer electronics, but the company beat EPS estimates and maintained its full-year forecast. Consumer purchases of discretionary items declined as inflation drove higher costs, and Best Buy anticipates 2024 will be a year of increasing industry stabilization. The company expects sales trends to improve sequentially over the next three quarters. The company’s also saw a profitable quarter partially attributed to its restructuring efforts, including layoffs and cost cuts, amidst challenges like persistent inflation, high mortgage rates, and a decline in tech spending from the pandemic that still remains. The company also continues to invest in growth areas such as artificial intelligence. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $76 to $91. Positive Outlook.

百思买 (BBY)

  • 25财年第一季营收：88.5亿美元，同比跌幅6.5%，逊预期1.2亿美元
  • 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.20美元，超预期0.13美元
  • 25年第一季度股息：百思买宣布每股0.94美元的季度股息，与之前一致。远期收益率5.23%。7月11日为付息款；6月20日为股东登记日；6月20日为除息日。
  • 25财年第二季指引：预计可比销售额将下降约3%，Non-GAAP营业利润率约为3%。3.5%。25财年指引：维持其25财年指引。预计营收将趋向于413亿美元至426亿美元指引的中点；可比销售额为(3.0%)- 0.0%；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益5.75美元至6.20美元；资本支出为7.5亿至8亿美元。
  • 短评：百思买公布的业绩喜忧参半。由于消费电子产品需求持续疲软，该公司营收不及预期，但每股收益超出预期，并维持全年预期。由于通货膨胀推高了成本，消费者的非必需品购买量下降，百思买预计2024年将是行业日益稳定的一年。该公司预计，未来三个季度的销售趋势将依次改善。该公司还看到了一个盈利的季度，部分原因是其重组努力，包括裁员和削减成本，面对持续的通货膨胀、高抵押贷款利率以及仍然存在的疫情导致的技术支出下降等挑战。该公司还将继续投资于人工智能等增长领域。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：76美至91美元。积极前景。

Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $2.63B, +11% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.42, beat estimates by $0.37
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect total sales to increase in the range of 9% to 11%, adjusted EBIT margin to increase 30 to 50 basis points vs 2Q23, adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 26% and adjusted EPS to range between $0.83 to $0.93 vs $0.93 consensus.
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect total sales to increase in the range of 8% to 10%, capital expenditure to be approximately $750M, to open about 100 net new stores, net interest expense to be approximately $43M and adjusted effective tax rate to be 26.5%. Adjusted EPS to range between $7.35 to $7.75 vs $7.42 consensus, from prior expectations of $7.00 to $7.60.
  • Comment: Burlington Stores reported robust first-quarter results, exceeding expectations with quarterly net income of US$78.5mn, more than doubling compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EPS reached US$1.42, while revenue surged 11% to US$2.36bn, driven by improved gross margins of 43.5%, up from 42.3% a year ago. The company expanded its footprint with 14 net new stores, reaching a total of 1,021 stores by the end of Q1, and plans to open 100 net new stores for the year. Reduced inventories, decreased promotional activity, and improved freight costs bolstered performance. Comparable store sales grew 2%, alongside a 7% decrease in year-over-year inventories. Its CEO attributed a slow February start to weather and delayed tax refunds but highlighted a robust recovery in March and April, with comparable store sales rising 4% over these months. Looking ahead, Burlington Stores maintains a cautious outlook, expecting flat to 2% comp sales growth in Q2 and for the full year, with increased margin and adjusted EPS guidance for FY24 set between US$7.35 to US$7.75, surpassing analyst expectations. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $225 to $280. Positive Outlook.

伯灵顿百货 (BURL)

  • 24财年第一季营收：26.3亿美元，同比增幅11.0%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.42美元，超预期0.37美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计总销售额将增长9%至11%，调整后的息税前利润率将比第二季度增加30至50个基点，调整后的有效税率约为26%，调整后的每股收益将在0.83美元至0.93美元之间，而市场预期为0.93美元。
  • 24财年指引：预计总销售额将增长8%至10%，资本支出约为7.5亿美元，净开设约100家新店，净利息支出约为4,300万美元，调整后的有效税率为26.5%。调整后的每股收益介于7.35美元至7.75美元之间，而此前预期为7.00美元至7.60美元，市场普遍预期为7.42美元。
  • 短评：伯灵顿百货公布了强劲的第一季度业绩，季度净收入超过预期，达到7850万美元，比去年同期增长了一倍多。调整后每股收益达到1.42美元，而由于毛利率从去年同期的42.3%提高到43.5%，收入增长11%至23.6亿美元。到第一季度末，该公司新开了14家门店，门店总数达到1021家，并计划今年新开100家门店。库存的减少、促销活动的减少以及货运成本的提高都提振了业绩。同店销售额增长2%，库存同比下降7%。该公司首席执行官将2月份开局缓慢归因于天气和推迟退税，但强调了3月和4月的强劲复苏，这两个月的同店销售额增长了4%。展望未来，伯灵顿保持谨慎的前景，预计第二季度和全年的销售额增长将持平至2%，24财年的利润率和调整后的每股收益指引将在7.35美元至7.75美元之间，超过分析师的预期。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：225美至280美元。积极前景。

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $58.52B, +9.1% YoY, beat estimates by $520M

3Q24 GAAP EPS: $3.78, beat estimates by $0.10

  • 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Costco Wholesale beat third-quarter revenue expectations, reporting US$58.52bn compared to analysts’ estimate of US$58.07bn, driven by cash-strapped consumers seeking low-priced items and groceries. The retailer saw strong demand for fresh foods, bakery items, and newly added products as consumers preferred cooking at home due to high living costs. With inflation stabilizing, members increased purchases of discretionary items like toys, furnishings, and health and beauty products. Costco also posted a profit of US$3.78 per share, above the US$3.70 estimate. Visits to Costco increased by 8.9% YoY, total comparable sales rose 6.5%, and e-commerce sales jumped 20.7%, led by gold and silver bullion, gift cards, and appliances. Executive memberships increased to 34.5mn, representing 46% of paid members and 73.1% of sales. Costco opened four new warehouses and plans 12 more by the end of FY24. Nonfoods had the highest comps, driven by strong merchandising and new items, while fresh foods and bakery also performed well. Digital sales were robust, with significant growth in app downloads and site traffic. Furthermore, Costco also expanded its partnership with Uber Eats for broader delivery services. Looking ahead, with all the improvements being made, Costco is well-positioned to continue driving growth and delivering value to its members and investors. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $790 to $840. Positive Outlook.

好市多 (COST)

  • 24财年第三季营收：585.2亿美元，同比增幅9.1%，超预期520万美元
  • 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：3.78美元，超预期0.10美元
  • 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：好市多批发公司第三季度营收超过预期，达到585.2亿美元，高于分析师预期的580.7亿美元，这是由于现金短缺的消费者寻求低价商品和杂货的推动。由于生活成本高，消费者更喜欢在家做饭，因此对新鲜食品、烘焙食品和新产品的需求强劲。随着通货膨胀趋于稳定，会员们增加了诸如玩具、家具、保健和美容产品等非必需品的购买。好市多也公布了每股3.78美元的利润，高于每股3.70美元的预期。好市多的客流量同比增长8.9%，总可比销售额增长6.5%，电子商务销售额增长20.7%，主要是金银条、礼品卡和家电。高级会员增加到3450万，占付费会员的46%，占销售额的73.1%。好市多新开了4个仓库，并计划到2024财年末再开12个。在强劲的商品销售和新产品的推动下，非食品的销售额增幅最高，而新鲜食品和烘焙食品也表现良好。数字销售表现强劲，应用下载量和网站流量均有显著增长。此外，好市多还扩大了与Uber Eats的合作，提供更广泛的外卖服务。展望未来，随着所有的改进，好市多有能力继续推动增长，并为其会员和投资者创造价值。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：790美至840美元。积极前景。

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

  • 1Q25 Revenue: $22.2B, +6.2% YoY, beat estimates by $550M
  • 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.27, miss estimates by $0.02
  • FY25 Guidance: Expect adjusted gross margin rate to decline about 150 basis points.
  • Comment: Dell Technologies reported revenue for the first quarter rose 6% to US$22.2bn, surpassing analysts’ estimates, with adjusted profit slightly below expectations at US$1.27 per share. Dell’s infrastructure solutions group saw a 22% revenue increase, while the client solutions group remained flat. The company expects its adjusted gross margin rate to decline by about 150 basis points in fiscal 2025. Its CFO attributed the expected margin decline to inflationary costs, competitive pressures, and a higher mix of AI-optimized servers. Demand for high-performance computing and AI-capable products has driven server shipments to more than double, reaching US$1.7bn, with a backlog increase of over 30% to US$3.8bn. However, the competitive pricing environment is impacting margins as the market remains tight. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $130 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

戴尔科技 (DELL)

  • 25财年第一季营收：222亿美元，同比增幅6.2%，超预期5,500万美元
  • 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.27美元，逊预期0.02美元
  • 25财年指引：预计调整后的毛利率将下降约150个基点。
  • 短评：戴尔科技公司公布第一季度收入增长6%至222亿美元，超过分析师预期，调整后每股利润略低于预期1.27美元。戴尔的基础设施解决方案部门的收入增长了22%，而客户解决方案部门的收入则持平。该公司预计其调整后的毛利率将在2025财年下降约150个基点。其首席财务官将预期的利润率下降归因于通胀成本、竞争压力以及人工智能优化服务器的比例增加。对高性能计算和人工智能产品的需求推动服务器出货量增长了一倍多，达到17亿美元，订单积压量增长超过30%，达到38亿美元。然而，由于市场仍然紧张，竞争激烈的价格环境正在影响利润率。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：130美至160美元。中性前景。

Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL)

  • 1Q25 Revenue: $1.16B, -12.1% YoY, in-line with estimates
  • 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.24, in-line with estimates
  • 2Q25 Guidance: Expect to generate revenue of $1.25B plus or minus 5% vs consensus of $1.23B. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast to be $0.29, plus or minus $0.05, while adjusted gross margin is expected to be roughly 62%.
  • Comment: Marvell Technology reported first-quarter revenue and EPS in-line with Wall Street estimates, attributable to weak client spending in wireless carrier and enterprise markets. It reported US$1.16bn in revenue and EPS of US$0.24. The company is still struggling with reduced demand in consumer markets and cutbacks in IT spending by enterprise clients due to economic softness. However, its CEO expressed optimism for the second half of the fiscal year, expecting growth in data centers and recovery in enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure. Data center revenue rose 87% to US$816.4mn, outperforming estimates, while enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure revenues fell 58% and 75% respectively. Marvell forecasted second-quarter revenue in line with analysts’ estimates and adjusted earnings per share of US$0.29, compared to the expected US$0.30. With the expectations of reduced demand expected to persist in the current quarter, Marvell Technology may continue to face challenges in maintaining its revenue and profitability targets. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $65 to $80. Neutral Outlook.

迈威尔科技 (MRVL)

  • 25财年第一季营收：11.6亿美元，同比跌幅12.1%，符合预期
  • 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.24美元，符合预期
  • 25财年第二季指引：预计将产生12.5亿美元的收入，增减5%，而市场预期为12.3亿美元。调整后每股收益预计为0.29美元，上下浮动0.05美元，调整后毛利率预计约为62%。
  • 短评：迈威尔科技公布的第一季度营收和每股收益与华尔街预期相符，原因是无线运营商和企业市场的客户支出疲软。该公司公布的营收为11.6亿美元，每股收益为0.24美元。由于经济疲软，消费者市场需求减少，企业客户的IT支出减少，微软仍在苦苦挣扎。不过，该公司首席执行官对本财年下半财年表示乐观，预计数据中心业务将出现增长，企业网络和运营商基础设施也将恢复。数据中心收入增长87%，至8.164亿美元，超出预期，而企业网络和运营商基础设施收入分别下降58%和75%。公司预计第二季度收入与分析师预期一致，调整后每股收益为0.29美元，高于预期的0.30美元。由于预计本季度需求将持续减少，公司在维持其收入和盈利目标方面可能继续面临挑战。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：65美至80美元。中性前景。

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA)

  • 1Q25 Revenue: $2.7B, +3.8% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
  • 1Q25 GAAP EPS: $6.47, beat estimates by $0.19
  • FY25 Guidance: Expect net sales to be $11.5B to $11.6B, lower than prior outlook of $11.7B to $11.8B, vs $11.71B consensus. Lowered comparable sales guidance from 4% to 5%, to 2% to 3%. Number of new stores and remodel and relocation projects to remain at 60 to 65 stores and 40 to 45 projects respectively. Operating margin is expected to be between 13.7% to 14.0% lowered from prior forecast of 14.0% to 14.3%. Diluted earnings per share to be between $25.2 to $26.0 from previous $26.2 to $27.0. Maintain share repurchase target of approximately $1B.
  • Comment: Ulta Beauty exceeded first-quarter profit expectations due to strong demand for skincare and makeup and lower input costs. Ulta earned US$6.47 per share, surpassing the expected US$6.24, and reported a 3.8% increase in net sales to US$2.73bn. Gross profit as a percentage of net sales decreased slightly to 39.2% from 40% last year. Promotions and a luxury line launch with brands like Chanel and Dior helped maintain customer retention and support margins. However, Ulta lowered its annual profit and revenue forecast, citing high rental and interest rates as potential pressure on discretionary spending. Annual adjusted earnings per share are now projected between US$25.20 and US$26.00, with net sales forecasted at US$11.5bn to US$11.6bn. Despite beating estimates, high costs and the interest rate environment may continue to impact Ulta’s margins, potentially leading to a decline in its bottom line. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $380 to $430. Neutral Outlook.

Ulta美容产品 (BURL)

  • 25财年第一季营收：27.0亿美元，同比增幅3.80%，训预期3,000万美元
  • 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.47美元，超预期0.19美元
  • 25财年指引：预计净销售额为115亿至116亿美元，低于此前预期的117亿至118亿美元，而市场预期为111.1亿美元。将可比销售预期从4%至5%区间下调至2%至3%区间。新店数量和改造搬迁项目分别保持在60至65家和40至45家。营业利润率预计在13.7%至14.0%之间，低于之前预测的14.0%至14.3%。摊薄后的每股收益将在25.2美元至26.0美元之间，而之前的每股收益为26.2美元至27.0美元。维持股票回购目标约为10亿美元。
  • 短评：由于对护肤品和化妆品的强劲需求以及投入成本的降低，Ulta Beauty第一季度的利润超过了预期。Ulta的每股收益为6.47美元，超过预期的6.24美元，净销售额增长3.8%，达到27.3亿美元。毛利润占净销售额的比例从去年的40%略微下降至39.2%。与香奈儿(Chanel)和迪奥(Dior)等品牌合作的促销活动和奢侈品系列的推出，帮助维持了客户留存率，提高了利润率。然而，Ulta下调了年度利润和收入预期，称租金和利率高企可能对可自由支配支出构成压力。调整后的年度每股收益预计在25.20美元至26.00美元之间，净销售额预计在115亿美元至116亿美元之间。尽管超出预期，但高成本和利率环境可能会继续影响Ulta的利润率，可能导致其底线下降。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：380美至430美元。中性前景。

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