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Technical Analysis – 16 January 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Uranium Royalty Corp. (UROY US) 

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  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA. 
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 3.00, Target 3.30, Stop 2.85 

Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU US) 

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  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume.  
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 7.50, Target 8.30, Stop 7.10 

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Geo Energy Resources Ltd. (GEO SP) 

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.  
  • MACD is turning positive, RSI is constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 0.340, Target 0.380, Stop 0.320 

Seatrium Ltd. (STM SP) 

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  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA. 
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 0.113, Target 0.123, Stop 0.108 

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China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd (762 HK) 

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  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume.  
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 4.92, Target 5.28, Stop 4.74 

China Mobile Ltd (941 HK) 

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. 
  • MACD and RSI are constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 65.3, Target 68.7, Stop 63.6 

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $38.57B, +11.8% YoY, miss estimates by $1.21B 
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.97, beat estimates by $0.37 
  • FY24 Guidance: Net interest income of $90bn or $88bn excluding markets, vs estimates of $86.2bn, it is expected to remain at a similar level to 2023 as it anticipates loan growth to partly offset lower interest rates. Adjusted expense to be approximately $90bn and card services net charge-off rate to be less than 3.50%. 
  • Comment: Despite a drop in quarterly profit, JPMorgan posted its highest annual profit ever. The bank benefited from the acquisition of First Republic Bank, which increased its net interest income. The CEO noted the resilience of the U.S. economy but expressed concerns about persistent inflation and prolonged high interest rates. Despite strong economic performance in 2023, the bank remains focused on building reserves and maintaining a strong balance sheet. JPMorgan’s investment banking unit expects a strong pipeline, driven by a more dovish interest rate environment. While quarterly profits fell, full-year earnings hit a record $49.6 billion. The bank faces about $3 billion in charges to replenish the government’s deposit insurance fund, hurting quarterly profits. Investment banking fees and fixed income market revenue increased during the quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is critical of proposed Basel III capital rules, with its chief financial officer suggesting possible legal action against the regulator. Despite the challenges, the bank expects credit card business to improve, while average deposits will remain flat and consumer finances will remain healthy. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $168 to $180. Positive Outlook. 

摩根大通(JPM)  

  • 23财年第四季营收：385.7亿美元, 同比增幅11.8%，超预期12.1亿美元 
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.97美元，超预期0.37美元  
  • 24财年指引：净利息收入为 900 亿美元或 880 亿美元（不包括市场），而预期为 862 亿美元，预计将保持与 2023 年类似的水平，因为预计贷款增长将部分抵消较低的利率。 调整后的费用约为 900 亿美元，卡服务净冲销率低于 3.50%。 
  • 短评：尽管季度利润有所下降，摩根大通仍公布了有史以来最高的年度利润。 该银行受益于收购第一共和银行，增加了其净利息收入。 这位首席执行官指出了美国经济的韧性，但对持续的通货膨胀和长期的高利率表示担忧。 尽管 2023 年经济表现强劲，但该银行仍将重点放在建立储备和维持强劲的资产负债表上。 摩根大通的投资银行部门预计，在更加鸽派的利率环境的推动下，管道将会强劲。 虽然季度利润下降，但全年盈利达到创纪录的 496 亿美元。 该银行面临约 30 亿美元的补充政府存款保险基金的费用，影响了季度利润。 本季度投资银行费用和固定收益市场收入有所增长。 摩根大通对拟议的巴塞尔协议 III 资本规则持批评态度，首席财务官建议可能对监管机构采取法律行动。 尽管面临挑战，该银行预计信用卡业务将有所改善，而平均存款将保持平稳，消费者财务状况将保持健康。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：168美至180美元。积极前景。 

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) 

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $94.4B, +14.0% YoY, beat estimates by $2.22B 
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.16, beat estimates by $0.17 
  • FY24 Guidance: Expects full-year revenue range between $400bn to $403bn, vs analysts’ estimate of $395.77bn. Adjusted profit of $27.50 to $28.00 per share, in-line with analysts’ estimate of $27.90. Entered into an agreement to sell Brazil operations, which is expected to close in 1H24, leading to a record charge of about $7bn, the majority of which is noncash and largely due to foreign currency translation losses accumulated over several years. This one-time charge will be excluded from the FY24 EPS. 
  • Comment: UnitedHealth beat both earnings and revenue estimated despite reporting higher medical services costs than Wall Street estimates for the first time in two years. The costs surged towards the end of the year, driven by increased demand for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines among older Americans and additional medical services. Rising hospitalisations and increased spending on each patient during the holiday season, influenced by higher COVID-19 cases, contributed to the elevated costs. The company reassured its 2024 medical cost forecast but faced skepticism due to the potential impact of the increased spending trend. UnitedHealth and its peers are grappling with reimbursement pressures due to lower government payment rates for Medicare Advantage plans for individuals aged 65 and older. The medical cost ratio for 2024 is projected to be in the 83.5% to 84.5% range higher as compared to estimates of 83.29% in FY24 and 83.2% in FY23. The increase in medical cost ratio projection shows that there is not as much upside in 2024 as compared to previous years and costs pressures will still be a key issue faced by the company.  1Q24 recommended trading range: $510 to $530. Negative Outlook. 

联合健康集团(UNH)  

  • 23财年第四季营收：944亿美元, 同比增幅14.0%，超预期22.2 亿美元 
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.16美元，超预期0.17美元  
  • 24财年指引：预计全年收入在 4000 亿美元至 4030 亿美元之间，而分析师的预期为 3957.7 亿美元。 调整后每股利润为 27.50 美元至 28.00 美元，与分析师预期的 27.90 美元一致。 签订了出售巴西业务的协议，预计将于 2024 年上半年完成，导致约 70 亿美元的创纪录费用，其中大部分是非现金，主要是由于几年来积累的外币换算损失。 这项一次性费用将不计入 2024 财年每股收益。 
  • 短评：尽管联合健康保险报告的医疗服务成本两年来首次高于华尔街的预期，但其盈利和收入均超过了预期。 由于美国老年人对呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）疫苗的需求增加以及额外的医疗服务，成本在年底飙升。 受 COVID-19 病例增加的影响，假期期间住院人数增加以及每位患者的支出增加，导致费用上涨。 该公司重申了 2024 年医疗成本预测，但由于支出增长趋势的潜在影响而面临质疑。 由于政府对 65 岁及以上个人的 Medicare Advantage 计划支付率较低，联合健康保险 (UnitedHealth) 及其同行正在努力应对报销压力。 2024 年的医疗费用比率预计将在 83.5% 至 84.5% 的范围内，高于 2024 财年的 83.29% 和 2023 财年的 83.2% 的估计值。 医疗费用率预测的上升表明，2024年与往年相比上升空间不大，成本压力仍将是公司面临的关键问题。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：510美至530美元。负面前景。 

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) 

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $14.22B, +5.8% YoY, beat estimates by $420M 
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.28, beat estimates by $0.12 
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to increase 3% to 6% YoY and EPS to be between $0.25 and $0.50, below market estimates of $0.38 per share. FY24 Guidance: Expects an adjusted per-share profit of $6 to $7, compared to the 2021 target of more than $7. However, it is inline with analysts expectations of $6.5. 
  • Comment: Despite doubling its Q4 profit due to heightened travel demand, Delta Air Lines reduced its profit outlook for the year due to higher costs, supply chain challenges, and economic uncertainties. The adjusted per-share profit for 2024 is now expected to be between $6 and $7. Delta cited unexpected increases in wage rates, general inflation, and supply chain constraints for the adjustment. The company offered a more conservative outlook given ongoing uncertainties. Delta’s aircraft maintenance costs increased by 23% last year, and it expects maintenance expenses to stay elevated until labour shortages and inflation ease. The company has moderated hiring plans, including a more than 50% reduction in pilot hiring for 2024. The reduction in staff hiring as well as jet fuel costs will help to partially offset the increased costs, which may enable the company to see better bottom lines in 1Q24. The company’s share price may also continue to be negatively impacted by the recent incident with a Boeing airline, however, travel demand should not have much impact. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $38 to $42. Neutral Outlook. 

达美航空(DAL)  

  • 23财年第四季营收：142.2亿美元, 同比增幅5.8%，超预期4.2亿美元 
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.28美元，超预期0.12美元  
  • 24财年第一季指引：预计收入将同比增长 3% 至 6%，每股收益将在 0.25 美元至 0.50 美元之间，低于市场预期的每股 0.38 美元。 2024 财年指引：预计调整后每股利润为 6 至 7 美元，而 2021 年目标为超过 7 美元。 不过，这符合分析师 6.5 美元的预期。 
  • 短评：尽管由于旅行需求增加，第四季度利润翻了一番，但由于成本上升、供应链挑战和经济不确定性，达美航空下调了今年的利润预期。 目前预计 2024 年调整后每股利润在 6 美元至 7 美元之间。 达美航空表示，此次调整是由于工资率意外上涨、总体通胀和供应链限制等原因造成的。 鉴于持续的不确定性，该公司提出了更为保守的前景。 达美航空去年的飞机维护成本增加了 23%，预计维护费用将保持在高位，直到劳动力短缺和通胀缓解。 该公司已经调整了招聘计划，包括在 2024 年将飞行员招聘减少 50% 以上。员工招聘以及航空燃油成本的减少将有助于部分抵消增加的成本，这可能使公司获得更好的利润 2024 年第一季度。 该公司的股价也可能继续受到最近与波音航空公司发生的事件的负面影响，但是，旅行需求应该不会产生太大影响。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：38美至42美元。中性前景。 

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) 

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $21.96B, -10.5% YoY, miss estimates by $1.77B 
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.70, beat estimates by $0.06 
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided. 
  • Comment: In the fourth quarter of 2023, Bank of America experienced a decline in net income to $3.1 billion, marking a decrease of over 50% from the $7.1 billion reported in the same period the previous year. The bank attributed this downturn to a pretax charge of $1.6 billion associated with the transition away from the London Interbank Offered Rate. Additionally, the financial results included a special fee of $2.1 billion imposed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, linked to the issues faced by Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Despite these challenges, the company observed robust organic growth in its business operations, characterized by record client activity and increased digital engagement. The bank remains well-positioned for responsible growth in 2024, supported by strong capital and liquidity levels.1Q24 recommended trading range: $30 to $36. Neutral Outlook. 

美国银行(BAC)  

  • 23财年第四季营收：219.6亿美元, 同比下降10.5%，逊预期17.7亿美元 
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.70美元，超预期0.06美元  
  • 24财年指引：没有提供指导。 
  • 短评：2023年第四季度，美国银行净利润下降至31亿美元，较上年同期的71亿美元下降超过50%。 该银行将此次经济低迷归因于与伦敦银行间同业拆借利率转型相关的 16 亿美元税前费用。 此外，财务业绩还包括联邦存款保险公司征收的 21 亿美元特别费用，该费用与硅谷银行和 Signature 银行面临的问题有关。 尽管面临这些挑战，该公司仍观察到其业务运营强劲的有机增长，其特点是创纪录的客户活动和不断增加的数字参与度。 在强劲的资本和流动性水平的支持下，该银行仍处于有利地位，可以在 2024 年实现负责任的增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：28美至38美元。中性前景。 

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) 

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $20.48B, +2.2% YoY, beats estimates by $100M 
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.29, beat estimates by $0.20 
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided  
  • Comment: The company reported an upbeat profit for 4Q23 as the company benefit from cost cuts, but also highlighted at the same time that 2024 net interest income could b 7% to 9% lower than compared to a year earlier, as the federal reserve begins to cut rates in 1Q24. In 4Q23, net interest income slid 5%, and the bank has had to shell out more interest to depositors after the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively. The company highlights that their business remains sensitive to interest rates and the health of the U.S. economy, but remains optimistic that the company will be able to drive stronger returns over the cycle. Similarly, lower rates could tempt more consumers to take out loans, boosting another key source of income for banks. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $40 to $55. Neutral Outlook. 

耐克(WFC)  

  • 23财年第四季营收：204.8亿美元, 同比增幅2.2%，超预期1.0亿美元 
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.29美元，超预期0.20美元  
  • 24财年指引：没有提供指导。 
  • 短评：该公司报告称，由于公司受益于成本削减，2023 年第 4 季度利润乐观，但同时也强调，随着美联储开始削减利率，2024 年净利息收入可能比去年同期下降 7% 至 9% 24 年第 1 季度的利率。 23年第四季度，净利息收入下滑5%，在美联储大幅加息后，银行不得不向储户支付更多利息。 该公司强调，他们的业务仍然对利率和美国经济健康状况敏感，但仍乐观地认为该公司将能够在整个周期内带来更强劲的回报。 同样，较低的利率可能会吸引更多消费者申请贷款，从而增加银行的另一个主要收入来源。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：40美至55美元。中性前景。 

BlackRock Inc. (BLK) 

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $4.63B, +6.7% YoY, in-line with estimates 
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $9.66, beat estimates by $0.82 
  • FY24 Guidance: No Guidance provided. 
  • 4Q23 Dividends: 2% increase in quarterly cash dividend of $5.10 approved by Board of Directors  
  • Comment: The company posted a positive set of results, boosted by the company’s assets under management (AUM) amidst a rebound in markets. The company ended 4Q23 with US$10.01tn in AUM, up from US$8.59tn a year earlier. The company also recently announced acquire Global Infrastructure Partners, in its effort to extend its infrastructure investments portfolio. The company also recently launched its Bitcoin ETF following the SEC’s approval, allowing investors to increase their exposure to Bitcoin despite not having ownership in it. This ETF is likely to add to BlackRock’s AUM as well. With rate cuts in sight, BlackRock may see improved client sentiments and hence an increase in demand for certain investment strategies, which may further increase their AUM. The company also announced a layoff of around 3% of its workforce to increase profit margins as the company approaches a more mature phase in its business. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $750 to $900. Positive Outlook. 

贝莱德(BLK)  

  • 23财年第四季营收：46.3亿美元, 同比增长 6.7%，符合预期 
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：9.66美元，超预期0.82美元  
  • 24财年指引：没有提供指导 
  • 短评：在市场反弹的情况下，受公司管理资产（AUM）的推动，该公司公布了一系列积极的业绩。 截至 2023 年第四季度，该公司的资产管理规模为 10.01 万亿美元，高于去年同期的 8.59 万亿美元。 该公司最近还宣布收购 Global Infrastructure Partners，以扩大其基础设施投资组合。 在美国证券交易委员会批准后，该公司最近还推出了比特币 ETF，允许投资者在不拥有比特币所有权的情况下增加其对比特币的投资。 该 ETF 也可能会增加贝莱德的资产管理规模。 随着降息的临近，贝莱德可能会看到客户情绪的改善，从而增加对某些投资策略的需求，这可能会进一步增加其资产管理规模。 随着公司业务接近成熟阶段，该公司还宣布裁员约 3%，以提高利润率。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：750美至900美元。积极前景。 

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