17 June 2025: Futures Product Ideas
KGI Weekly Futures Update
SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participant switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
|
2024 |
Financial Institution (FI) |
Manage Money (MM) |
Physicals |
Others |
|
Net Long |
Below US$118/mt |
Above US$118/mt |
Below US$100/mt |
NA |
|
Net Short |
Above US$118/mt |
Below US$115/mt |
Above US$100/mt |
NA |
|
Net-position WoW Change |
Remarks | |
|
FI |
+25.68 |
Increase for three consecutive weeks. |
|
MM |
+0.27 |
Rebound from two consecutive weeks of decline. |
|
Physicals |
-17.51 |
Reverse from two consecutive weeks of incline. |
|
Others |
-8.43 |
Decrease for two consecutive weeks. |
Figure 1: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions declined for three consecutive weeks to 265. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions rose for three consecutive weeks to 325. Seasonally, more MMs are prone to long in 1HQ4 and 2HQ2, and there are more MMs with short positions in 1HQ2 and 1HQ3.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
423 |
427 |
393 |
248 |
|
Low |
176 |
131 |
154 |
83 |
Figure 2: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions declined for two consecutive weeks to 103. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions declined marginally to 134 after four consecutive weeks of increase. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to being long in 1Q, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
135 |
145 |
111 |
147 |
|
Low |
77 |
107 |
68 |
96 |
Figure 3: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions rose for four consecutive weeks to 93. The number of others with short positions fell to 92 after last week’s rebound.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
131 |
131 |
134 |
152 |
|
Low |
68 |
83 |
103 |
101 |
Figure 4: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX Baltic Panamax Time Charter Average Futures
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
|
2024 |
Financial Institution (FI) |
Manage Money (MM) |
Physicals |
Others |
|
Net Long |
NA |
Above US$9,000/t |
Below US$8,500/t |
NA |
|
Net Short |
NA |
Below US$9,000/t |
Above US$9,500/t |
NA |
|
Net-position WoW Change |
Remarks | |
|
FI |
+0.13 |
Rebound from last week. |
|
MM |
+2.30 |
Rebound from four consecutive weeks of decline. |
|
Physicals |
-2.22 |
Reverse from four consecutive weeks of increase. |
|
Others |
-0.21 |
Continue a general downtrend after a rebound last week. |
Figure 5: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions had remained stable at 21 since April 2025. On the other hand, the number of MM with short positions declined for two consecutive weeks to 46. Seasonally, more MM are prone to long in 1H, and there are more MM with short positions in 2H.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
47 |
51 |
29 |
33 |
|
Low |
20 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
Figure 6: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions declined after three consecutive weeks of incline to 149. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions fell after two consecutive weeks of increase to 76. The number of physicals has been on a general upward trend since 2Q24, while physicals with short positions generally saw a downtrend since 2Q24.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
171 |
114 |
120 |
123 |
|
Low |
98 |
78 |
78 |
62 |
Figure 7: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions remained stable after rising marginally for the last three consecutive weeks at 26, a high since October 2024.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
43 |
39 |
53 |
45 |
|
Low |
20 |
20 |
31 |
25 |
Figure 8: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX SICOM Rubber Futures – TSR20
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
|
2024 |
Financial Institution (FI) |
Manage Money (MM) |
Physicals |
Others |
|
Net Long |
Below US$1.90/kg |
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
Net Short |
Above US$1.60/kg |
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
Net-position WoW Change |
Remarks | |
|
FI |
-0.21 |
Decline after two consecutive weeks of incline. |
|
MM |
-5.53 |
Decline for three consecutive weeks. |
|
Physicals |
+5.07 |
Rise for three consecutive weeks. |
|
Others |
+0.67 |
Rebound after nine consecutive weeks of decline. |
Figure 9: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions declined for two consecutive weeks to 55, continuing its general downtrend since February. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions rebounded for three consecutive weeks to 80.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
114 |
56 |
89 |
80 |
|
Low |
63 |
21 |
25 |
27 |
Figure 10: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions remained stable after two consecutive weeks of incline at 46. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions rose marginally to 29 and represents a rebound from the previous low since August 2023. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to long in early Q3, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
39 |
48 |
43 |
39 |
|
Low |
26 |
28 |
24 |
24 |
Figure 11: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of long holders increased marginally for two consecutive weeks to 56. On the other hand, the number of short holders continued its general downward trend after previous rebound at 33.
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short | |
|
High |
77 |
48 |
82 |
51 |
|
Low |
48 |
26 |
51 |
28 |
Figure 12: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
|
Participant Category |
Description |
|
Financial Institutions |
An entity, such as a broker trading desk, bank trading desk or swap dealer, that uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk. |
|
Managed Money |
An entity that is engaged in organized futures trading on behalf of funds or other special investment purpose vehicles such as Pension Funds, Asset Managers, Hedge Funds, Proprietary Trading Groups, Family Offices, etc. |
|
Physicals |
An entity that predominantly engages in the physical markets and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with the conduct of those activities. Such activities could include the production, processing, trading, packing or handling of a physical commodity, or the provision of transportation, warehousing or distribution services. |
|
Others |
Every other trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories. E.g., Broker Agency, Bank Agency, Inter-Dealer Brokers, etc. |
凯基证券期货周报 – 6 月 10 日
SGX TSI 铁矿石 CFR 中国（62% 铁粉）指数期货
净多头/空头和价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
|
2024 |
金融机构 (FI) |
管理资金 (MM) |
实物交割(Physicals) |
其他 (Others) |
|
净多头 |
低于 118 美元/吨 |
118 美元/吨以上 |
低于 100 美元/吨 |
无 |
|
净空头 |
118 美元/吨以上 |
低于 115 美元/吨 |
100 美元/吨以上 |
无 |
|
净仓位按周变化 |
备注 | |
|
金融机构 |
+25.68 |
连续三周上升。 |
|
管理资金 |
+0.27 |
连续两周下跌后反弹。 |
|
实物交割 |
-17.51 |
连续两周上升后回落。 |
|
其他 |
-8.43 |
连续两周下跌。 |
图 1：按参与者细分的净持仓和价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易简报
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金数目连续三周下跌至265家。相应地，持有空头头寸的管理资金数目连续三周上升至325家。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在第四季上半旬和第二季下半旬持有多头，而在第二季上半旬和第三季上半旬持有空头的管理资金较多。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
423 |
427 |
393 |
248 |
|
最低值 |
176 |
131 |
154 |
83 |
图 2：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周下跌至103家。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在连续四周上升后小幅下跌至134家。季节性来看，更多实物交割交易者倾向于在第一季度持有多头，而在第四季度持有空头的实物交割较多。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
135 |
145 |
111 |
147 |
|
最低值 |
77 |
107 |
68 |
96 |
图 3：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。其他类别多头持仓数量连续四周上升至93家。而空头持仓数量在前一周反弹后下跌至92家。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
131 |
131 |
134 |
152 |
|
最低值 |
68 |
83 |
103 |
101 |
图 4：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX 波罗的海巴拿马型船平均期租期货
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
|
2024 |
金融机构 (FI) |
管理资金 (MM) |
实物交割(Physicals) |
其他 (Others) |
|
净多头 |
无 |
9,000 美元/吨以上 |
低于 8,500 美元/吨 |
无 |
|
净空头 |
无 |
低于 9,000 美元/吨 |
9,500 美元/吨以上 |
无 |
|
净仓位按周变化 |
备注 | |
|
金融机构 |
+0.13 |
上周反弹。 |
|
管理资金 |
+2.30 |
连续四周下跌后反弹。 |
|
实物交割 |
-2.22 |
连续四周上升后回落。 |
|
其他 |
-0.21 |
上周反弹后延续总体下行趋势 |
图 5：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。过去四周持有多头头寸的做管理资金交易者数量自25年4月以来维持在21家。另一方面，持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数连续两周下降至46家。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在上半年持有多头，而在下半年持有空头的管理资金较多。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
47 |
51 |
29 |
33 |
|
最低值 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
图 6： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。 持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续三周上升后下跌至149家。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周上升后下跌至76家。自去年第二季度以来，实物交割交易者数量总体呈上升趋势，而持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量自去年第二季度以来总体呈下降趋势。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
171 |
114 |
120 |
123 |
|
最低值 |
98 |
78 |
78 |
62 |
图 7： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。其他持有多头头寸的公司数量连续三周上涨至26家，是自2024年10月来最高水平。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
43 |
39 |
53 |
45 |
|
最低值 |
20 |
20 |
31 |
25 |
图 8： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX SICOM 橡胶期货 – TSR20
净多头/空头及价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
|
2024 |
金融机构 (FI) |
管理资金 (MM) |
实物交割(Physicals) |
其他 (Others) |
|
净多头 |
低于 1.90 美元/公斤 |
无 |
无 |
无 |
|
净空头 |
1.60 美元/公斤以上 |
无 |
无 |
无 |
|
净仓位按周变化 |
备注 | |
|
金融机构 |
-0.21 |
连续两周上升后下跌。 |
|
管理资金 |
-5.53 |
连续三周下跌。 |
|
实物交割 |
+5.07 |
连续三周上升。 |
|
其他 |
+0.67 |
连续九周下跌后反弹。 |
图 9：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金交易者数量连续两周下降至55，延续自二月份以来的下行趋势。相应地，持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量连续三周反弹至80家。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
114 |
56 |
89 |
80 |
|
最低值 |
63 |
21 |
25 |
27 |
图 10：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周小幅反弹后稳定在46家。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量小幅上升至29家，是从自2023年8月新低反弹。从季节性来看，实物交割交易者在第三季度初更倾向于持有多头头寸，而在第四季度则更多持有空头头寸。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
39 |
48 |
43 |
39 |
|
最低值 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
24 |
图11：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头头寸的投资者数量连续两周小幅上升至56家。另一方面，空头持仓数量在前一周反弹后重回总体下行趋势至33家。
|
2024 |
2023 | |||
|
看多 |
看空 |
看多 |
看空 | |
|
最高值 |
77 |
48 |
82 |
51 |
|
最低值 |
48 |
26 |
51 |
28 |
图 12：持仓橡胶期货数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
|
参与者类别 |
描述 |
|
金融机构 |
使用期货市场管理或对冲风险的实体，如经纪商交易台、银行交易台或互换交易商。 |
|
管理资金 |
代表基金或其他特殊投资目的工具（如养老基金、资产管理公司、对冲基金、自营交易集团、家族办公室等）从事有组织的期货交易的实体。 |
|
实物交割 |
主要从事实物市场并使用期货市场管理或对冲与这些活动相关风险的实体。这些活动可能包括生产、加工、贸易、包装或处理实物商品，或提供运输、仓储或分销服务。 |
|
其他 | 未归类到上述三类中的其他交易者，例如经纪代理、银行代理、交易商间经纪商等。 |
