- \n
- 9M26 results review. <\/strong>Raffles Education\u2019s 9M26 update showed a materially stronger balance sheet despite softer revenue. Revenue declined 5% YoY to S$81.14m, while adjusted EBITDA\/core earnings fell 5% YoY to S$22.71m; however, PAT rose 274% YoY to S$24.18m, supported by asset monetisation and lower finance-cost pressure. Total borrowings fell sharply to S$84.99m as at 31 Mar 2026, from S$206.78m a year earlier, while standalone bank borrowings were reduced to zero and cash\/bank balances rose to S$46.18m.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nK-12 Market Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The 2026 K\u201312 market backdrop remains supportive for Raffles Education\u2019s ASEAN expansion strategy. According to ISC Research data cited by ICEF Monitor, the global international K\u201312 school sector reached 15,075 schools in 2026, serving 7.7m students, employing 730,000 staff, and generating US$69.3bn in annual fee income, with growth increasingly driven by local families seeking international curricula. This supports Raffles Education\u2019s focus on premium K\u201312 expansion in Malaysia and Thailand, as well as its planned new Jakarta K\u201312 campus in 2H2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\nCoking Coal Optionality Flagged But Not In Base Case<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The 1 April 2026 binding term sheet to acquire a majority stake in PT Harfa Taruna Mandiri positions Geo for entry into the premium hard coking coal market, commanding 3-4x thermal coal pricing. We view this as identified upside pending due diligence completion and definitive agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\nValuation & Action<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
We reiterate our OUTPERFORM<\/strong> rating on Raffles Education, with a 12-month fully diluted target price of S$0.32<\/strong> previously S$0.34, implying 143.5% upside from current levels. Our target price is derived using a DCF valuation methodology, based on a WACC of 6.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. The slight reduction in our target price reflects a more balanced valuation approach, as we factor in the Group\u2019s improved corporate risk profile, while adopting a more conservative near-term revenue growth outlook given that its ASEAN K\u201312 expansion will take time to scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\nRisks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Key downside risks include (i) execution risk on new-campus launches across ASEAN, including the planned Jakarta K\u201312 opening in 2H26; (ii) margin pressure from rising competition in international schooling across Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia; and (iii) regulatory and foreign-exchange exposure across multiple jurisdictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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ResInvest deal validates MBJ at infrastructure multiple. On 11 May 2026, the Group secured a binding term sheet with Resource Invest AG to invest in MBJ at a valuation of US$1.5bn. At Geo’s 71.3% pre-deal effective interest, MBJ alone is attributable at US$1,069.5mn, exceeding the entire current market capitalisation and providing a third-party market-validated benchmark for our methodology refinement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":82356,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-89055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-company-reports"],"aioseo_notices":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Raffles-Education-NR7-SP-Logo.png?wsr",866,467,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Raffles-Education-NR7-SP-Logo-150x150.png?wsr",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Raffles-Education-NR7-SP-Logo-300x162.png?wsr",300,162,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Raffles-Education-NR7-SP-Logo-768x414.png?wsr",768,414,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Raffles-Education-NR7-SP-Logo.png?wsr",800,431,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Raffles-Education-NR7-SP-Logo.png?wsr",866,467,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Raffles-Education-NR7-SP-Logo.png?wsr",866,467,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"admin","author_link":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/author\/admin\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"ResInvest deal validates MBJ at infrastructure multiple. On 11 May 2026, the Group secured a binding term sheet with Resource Invest AG to invest in MBJ at a valuation of US$1.5bn. At Geo's 71.3% pre-deal effective interest, MBJ alone is attributable at US$1,069.5mn, exceeding the entire current market capitalisation and providing a third-party market-validated benchmark…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89055"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89055\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/researchstg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}