Space Potential Set for Lift-off!
Chart of the Week:
Israel-Iran Conflict Prolonged; U.S. Valuations Turn Attractive
Trump signaled military success against Iran, suggesting its near-term nuclear ambitions have been largely curtailed. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, with further strikes expected over the next two weeks. Market expectations have shifted from a quick resolution toa prolonged conflict exceeding 10 weeks, raising the risk of further oil price upside. U.S. equity sentiment has turned negative, reflecting growing market caution.
Major Recap 1:
Ceasefire Signals Emerge but Volatility Persists; Memory Price Weakness Weighs on Tech
Iran signaled willingness to end the conflict under security guarantees, while Trump claimed adecisive victory and near achievement of strategic objectives. With the U.S. set to intensify strikes and negotiations over the next 2–3 weeks, near-term uncertainty remains high, capping equity upside. Major indices traded sideways, with the Dow slightly higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged lower. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index underperformed, down 2.1%, as Google’s TurboQuant launch raised concerns over weaker future demand for memory and storage. Declines in DDR5 pricing further pressured hardware demand, weighing on tech stocks. European markets were relatively stable, with the UK outperforming due to its defensive sector mix.
Major Recap 2:
Powell Eases Rate-Hike Concerns; Bonds and Precious Metals Rebound
Bond markets this week reflected ongoing uncertainty around the Israel-Iran conflict, supporting gains across Treasuries and IG credit. However, persistent oil price strength has lifted inflation expectations, keeping bond markets under pressure over the past three months. On the 30th, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that monetary policy should not react to short-term oil price fluctuations, but remain focused on full employment and price stability, easing market concerns over further rate hikes.
What’s Trending:
Rising Inflation Risks Reprice Rate Cuts; 10Y Treasury Yields Surge
The Israel-Iran conflict has entered its second month, pushing energy prices higher and driving broader macro spillovers. Oil prices are up over 40% YoY, directly lifting U.S. inflation. While base effects suggest this may be largely one-off, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.
In Focus 1:
Mega IPO Buzz; Index Rule Changes Fuel Passive Inflows
Major index providers—FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones, and Nasdaq—are considering rule changes to shorten IPO inclusion timelines. Currently, S&P may require up to 12 months, while Nasdaq and FTSE typically require around three months. To capture upcoming mega listings such as SpaceX, Nasdaq is proposing faster inclusion, allowing companies with top-tier market caps to be added as early as 15 trading days post-listing. Minimum freefloat requirements may also be reduced from10%/5% to 0%. While S&P has yet to announce changes, market reports suggest ongoing internal discussions to address future mega-unicorn listings.
In Focus 2:
SpaceX Valuation Rises Post xAI Merger; Strong Post-IPO Inflow Expected
Recent AI developments have driven rapid valuation growth among unlisted unicorns — from about USD 1.2 trillion in the S&P U.S. Top 10 Private Stocks (2025) to over USD 3 trillion by end‑February 2026, equating tonearly 5% of S&P market cap.
In Focus 3:
Frequent SpaceX Launches Reinforce U.S. Space Dominance; Starlink Underpins Space-Based Data
Infrastructure
The global space technology market continues to expand steadily, with SpaceX leading commercialisation and becoming the most active launch provider across both private and government missions. Its Starlink program leverages reusable rockets and mass satellite production to significantly reduce launch costs. Each Starship launch can carry 60–90 satellites. Global low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites exceeded 5,000 in 2023, with SpaceX accounting for over 50%, reaching breakeven and beginning to generate profits. By 2025, its share is expected to approach 80%, with active satellites surpassing 10,000 this year. Extensive launch experience has driven meaningful cost reductions, with estimates suggesting China’s launch costs remain 6–10x higher than SpaceX.
