Technical Analysis – 12 May 2026

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

IonQ, Inc. (IONQ US)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.  
• RSI is near overbought levels, but MACD is still constructive. 
• Long – Entry 54, Target 80, Stop 41 

Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG US) 

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
• Long – Entry 3.4, Target 4.0, Stop 3.1 

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Top Glove Corp Bhd. (TOPG SP) 

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 
• MACD is positive, while RSI is at an overbought level. 
• Buy – Entry 0.270, Target 0.300, Stop 0.255  

United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB SP) 

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. 
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
• Buy – Entry 36.8, Target 38.6, Stop 35.9 

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China Resources Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (836 HK)  

• Shares closed at an eleven-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume. 
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is overbought. 
• Long – Entry 20.2, Target 21.4, Stop 19.6 

China Power International Development Ltd (2380 HK) 

• Shares closed at a five-months high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level. 
• Long – Entry 3.40, Target 3.52, Stop 3.34  

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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $694.13M, +20.0% YoY, miss estimates by $20.75M 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.21, best estimates by $0.03 

• 2Q26 Guidance: Expect EPS of -$0.24 and revenue of $48.2M. 

• FY26 Guidance: Circle maintained full-year guidance. 

• Comment: This was a decent quarter, but not a clean one. Revenue and reserve income grew 20% YoY, USDC in circulation rose 28% to $77B, and onchain transaction volume rose 263% to $21.5T, which confirms that the core stablecoin network is still scaling well. Adjusted EBITDA also improved to $151M, showing that operating leverage remains positive. The main issue is earnings quality versus expectations. Revenue missed, net income from continuing operations fell 15% YoY to $55M, and costs rose as Circle continued investing in growth and infrastructure. That leaves the stock highly dependent on continued USDC adoption, reserve-income durability, and regulatory momentum rather than on a clean near-term earnings beat. The market reaction was constructive, with coverage indicating the stock moved higher after the report as investors focused more on USDC growth, transaction volume, and regulatory tailwinds than on the revenue miss. The principal variables to monitor are USDC circulation growth, reserve yield trends, partner payout intensity, and whether newer initiatives such as Arc and payments products begin contributing more meaningfully to non-reserve revenue. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $100 to $200. Positive Outlook. 

Circle Internet Group, Inc.（CRCL) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：6.9413亿美元，同比增长20.0%，低于预期2075万美元 

• 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.21美元，优于预期0.03美元 

• 26财年第二季度指引：预计营收4820万美元，每股亏损0.24美元 

• 26财年全年指引：维持不变 

• 短评：本季度表现尚可，但并非完全干净的超预期。核心稳定币业务持续扩张：USDC流通量同比增长28%至770亿美元，链上交易额激增263%至21.5万亿美元，印证其作为主流稳定币基础设施的地位仍在强化。储备资产收入推动总营收增长20%，调整后EBITDA改善至1.51亿美元，显示运营杠杆仍为正向。然而，盈利质量与市场预期存在落差：营收小幅不及预期，持续经营净利润同比下降15%至5500万美元，同时成本因持续投入增长与基础设施建设而上升。公司估值逻辑仍高度依赖USDC采用率、储备收益可持续性及监管进展，而非短期盈利爆发。市场反应积极，股价上涨，反映投资者更关注USDC生态扩张、交易活跃度及美国监管环境趋明朗等长期利好。后续关键变量包括：（1）USDC流通规模增长动能；（2）储备资产收益率变化；（3）向合作伙伴支付的分成强度；（4）Arc平台及支付类产品等新举措能否逐步贡献更具意义的非储备类收入。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：100美元至200美元。积极前景。 
   

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $11.12B, +63.8% YoY, best estimates by $2.41B 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.74, best estimates by $0.13 

• FY26 Guidance: Affirmed FY26 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $11.00 to $12.00 per share. 

• Share Buybacks: Constellation deployed about $335M for share repurchases in the quarter. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter on the headline numbers. Earnings beat cleanly, revenue was well ahead of expectations, and the company continued to execute on key development milestones tied to the Calpine acquisition and its broader generation portfolio. At the same time, the market reaction was negative because management only affirmed, rather than raised, its full-year earnings outlook. The more important medium-term issue remains power demand monetization. Constellation continues to push forward on the Crane Clean Energy Center restart tied to Microsoft, but the timing of grid interconnection and regulatory approvals still matters materially for how quickly that upside can convert into earnings. The principal variables to monitor are regulatory progress on Crane, realized value from data-center power demand, integration benefits from Calpine, and whether earnings guidance begins to move higher later in the year. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $270 to $330. Neutral Outlook. 

Constellation Energy Corporation（CEG) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：111.2亿美元，同比增长63.8%，大幅超出预期24.1亿美元 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.74美元，超出预期0.13美元 

• 26财年全年指引：重申调整后运营每股收益11.00–12.00美元 

• 股票回购：第一季度动用约3.35亿美元用于股票回购 

• 短评：本季度顶层数据表现强劲。盈利清晰超预期，营收大幅领先市场预测，公司亦持续推进Calpine收购整合及整体发电资产组合的关键开发节点。然而，市场反应偏负面—因管理层仅重申全年盈利指引，未予上调，令期待更高确定性的投资者失望。中期核心议题仍在于电力需求的变现能力：公司正积极推进与微软合作的Crane清洁能源中心重启项目，但电网并网时点与监管审批进度将实质性影响该高价值机会转化为盈利的速度。后续关键变量包括：（1）Crane项目监管审批进展；（2）数据中心电力需求的实际变现水平；（3）Calpine整合带来的协同效益释放；（4）全年盈利指引是否在下半年获得上修。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：270美元至330美元。中性前景。 

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $608.1M, +3.8% YoY, miss estimates by $8.75M 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: -$0.40, miss estimates by $0.43 

• 2Q26 Guidance: Expect EPS of -$0.24 and revenue of $48.2M. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $2.8B to $3.0B and updated FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $275M to $350M. 

• Comment: The quarter was mixed. Subscriber growth remained healthy, with nearly 2.6M subscribers, up 9% YoY, but revenue missed expectations and the company swung to a net loss of $92.1M. Average monthly online revenue per subscriber fell to $80 from $85 a year ago, showing that mix and monetization were weaker even as the user base expanded. The main issue is the transition in the weight-loss business. Hims is moving away from compounded GLP-1 offerings toward branded products such as Wegovy, and that shift drove restructuring charges, write-downs, legal costs, and lower near-term profitability. Management clearly believes this improves the long-term quality of the model, which is why revenue guidance was raised, but the near-term margin profile is much weaker. The stock reaction was negative after the release, after-hours decline of roughly 14%. The principal variables to monitor are branded GLP-1 adoption, subscriber monetization, the pace of international expansion, and whether EBITDA recovers in 2H26 as one-time transition costs fade. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $21 to $30. Neutral Outlook. 

Hims & Hers Health, Inc.（HIMS) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：6.081亿美元，同比增长3.8%，低于预期8750万美元 

• 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.40美元，低于预期0.43美元（亏损远超预期） 

• 26财年第二季度指引：预计营收4820万美元，每股亏损0.24美元 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收至28亿–30亿美元；调整后EBITDA指引更新为2.75亿–3.5亿美元 

• 短评：本季度表现混合。用户基础持续扩张——订阅用户达260万（+9% YoY），但营收不及预期，且净亏损扩大至9210万美元。每用户平均月收入（ARPU）从去年同期的85美元降至80美元，显示尽管用户增长稳健，变现效率与产品组合质量有所弱化。核心挑战源于减重业务的战略转型：公司正从复方GLP-1药物转向品牌药（如Wegovy），此转变引发重组费用、资产减记及法律成本，显著拖累短期盈利。管理层认为此举将提升长期商业模式质量，因而上调全年营收指引；但近端利润率明显承压。财报发布后股价盘后大跌约14%，反映市场对盈利恶化与转型阵痛的担忧。后续关键变量包括：（1）品牌GLP1产品的用户采纳速度；（2）订阅用户ARPU能否企稳回升；（3）国际扩张节奏；（4）一次性转型成本消退后，2026年下半年EBITDA能否如期恢复。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：21美元至30美元。中性前景。 

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $14.74M, +2005.7% YoY, miss estimates by $21.84M 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: -$0.66, miss estimates by $0.46 

• FY26 Guidance: Maintained FY26 revenue guidance of $150M to $200M. Management also expects to have 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. 

• Comment: This was a weak quarter on the reported numbers. Revenue missed badly and the loss was much larger than expected, so the near-term income statement remains noisy and highly dependent on project timing rather than a stable recurring run rate. The more important issue remains execution against the network buildout. Management kept full-year revenue guidance intact, still pointed to 45 satellites in orbit by end-2026, and previously disclosed contracted revenue backlog above $1.2B, which suggests the long-term commercial opportunity is still the main driver of investor interest. Cash remains substantial at about $3.5B, which gives the company funding capacity, but negative cash flow is still expected through 2027. The stock reaction was negative after the release, with shares falling about 10% in after-hours trading. The principal variables to monitor are satellite deployment cadence, conversion of backlog into recognized revenue, cash burn through 2026 to 2027, and whether commercial service milestones are hit on time. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $60 to $100. Neutral Outlook. 

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.（ASTS) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：1474万美元，同比增长2005.7%，大幅低于预期2184万美元 

• 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.66美元，低于预期0.46美元（亏损显著超预期） 

• 26财年全年指引：维持全年营收1.5亿-2.0亿美元；预计到2026年底将有45颗卫星在轨 

• 短评：本季度财报数字表现疲弱。营收严重不及预期，亏损远超市场预测，反映其近端损益表仍高度波动，受项目确认时点驱动，而非稳定经常性收入。然而，投资者关注焦点不在短期财务，而在网络部署执行力：公司维持全年营收指引不变，重申2026年底实现45颗卫星在轨的目标，并此前披露已锁定超12亿美元的合约收入积压（backlog），显示长期商业潜力仍是估值核心支撑。公司现金储备约35亿美元，提供充足资金保障，但负向自由现金流预计将持续至2027年。财报发布后股价盘后下跌约10%，反映市场对执行节奏与变现延迟的担忧。后续关键变量包括：（1）卫星发射与部署进度；（2）积压订单向确认收入的转化效率；（3）2026-2027年现金消耗速度；（4）商用服务关键里程碑能否按时达成。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：60美元至100美元。中性前景。 

Barrick Mining Corporation (B) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $5.22B, +66.8% YoY, beat estimates by $380M 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.98, best estimates by $0.17 

• FY26 Guidance: Full-year production and cost guidance was maintained. Management expects gold production to increase sequentially through the year, with Q2 gold production guided to 730,000 to 770,000 ounces. 

• Dividends/Share buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share and approved a new $3.0B share repurchase program. The dividend is payable on June 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on May 29, 2026 

• Comment: This was a very strong quarter. Earnings, cash flow, and free cash flow all improved sharply, supported by a higher realized gold price and stronger-than-guided gold production. Operating cash flow reached $2.55B and attributable free cash flow reached $1.21B, which materially strengthens the capital return case. The key positives are operational momentum and capital allocation. Gold production exceeded the prior guided range, management kept full-year guidance intact, and the combination of a higher dividend framework plus a new $3.0B buyback materially improves the shareholder return profile. The North American Barrick IPO also continues to progress toward a year-end 2026 target, which could become an additional catalyst if executed cleanly.  The main variables to monitor are whether sequential production growth continues through the rest of 2026, whether gold prices remain supportive, and whether development milestones at Lumwana and Fourmile stay on track. The immediate stock reaction was very strong, with shares up about 9% on May 11, 2026, so part of the earnings upside is now reflected in the price. Still, the combination of strong cash generation, improving production, and a meaningful capital return step-up makes this one of the more constructive recent prints among large-cap miners. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $40 to $55. Neutral Outlook. 

巴里克黄金公司（B) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：52.2亿美元，同比增长66.8%，超出预期3.8亿美元 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.98美元，超出预期0.17美元 

• 26财年全年指引：维持全年产量与成本指引不变；预计黄金产量将逐季提升，第二季度黄金产量指引为73万–77万盎司 

• 股息与资本返还：宣布季度股息每股0.175美元（2026年6月15日支付，5月29日为股权登记日）；批准新一轮30亿美元股票回购计划 

• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲。受益于更高的实现金价及超指引的黄金产量，盈利、经营现金流（25.5亿美元）与可归属自由现金流（12.1亿美元）均显著改善，大幅强化资本返还能力。核心亮点在于运营动能与资本配置双升：黄金产量超出此前指引区间，全年目标维持不变；叠加股息框架提升与30亿美元新回购计划，股东回报前景明显优化。此外，北美巴里克（North American Barrick）分拆上市仍在按计划推进，目标2026年底完成，若顺利执行或成额外催化剂。财报发布后股价于2026年5月11日大涨约9%，部分利好已反映在价格中。后续关键变量包括：（1）2026年剩余季度产量能否持续环比增长；（2）金价是否维持高位支撑；（3）Lumwana与Fourmile等开发项目里程碑是否如期达成。综合强劲现金流、产量改善与资本返还加码，此份财报为近期大型矿业股中最积极之一。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：40美元至55美元。中性前景。 

MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $174.6M, -18.4% YoY, miss estimates by $9.61M 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: -$3.31, miss estimates by $0.97 

• FY26 Guidance: No guidance provided. 

• Comment: MARA Holdings reported a weak first quarter, with revenue of US$174.6mn missing expectations and a loss of US$3.31 per share, significantly wider than the expected US$1.41 loss. The decline was mainly driven by an 18% drop in the average bitcoin price and a US$1.0bn fair-value charge on digital assets, as bitcoin fell 22% during the quarter. Net loss widened to US$1.3bn from US$533.4mn a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA was negative US$1.0bn. Operationally, MARA produced 2,247 bitcoin and increased energized hashrate 33% YoY to 72.2 EH/s, showing continued infrastructure scaling despite weaker crypto economics. Looking ahead, MARA’s outlook depends heavily on bitcoin price recovery and its ability to turn power access into a strategic advantage, with the planned acquisition of Long Ridge Energy & Power potentially improving cash flow and strengthening its position as a broader digital infrastructure platform rather than a pure bitcoin miner. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $11 to $15. Neutral Outlook. 

MARA Holdings 公司 (MARA) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：1.746亿美元，同比-18.4%，低于预期9,610万美元。 

• 26财年第一季度GAAP每股收益：-3.31美元，低于预期0.97美元。 

• 26财年指引：未提供指引。 

• 短评：MARAHoldings公布了偏弱的第一季度：营收1.746亿美元未达预期，且每股亏损3.31美元，远差于预期的1.41美元亏损。业绩下滑主要由两部分推动：比特币平均价格下跌18%，以及数字资产计入公允价值的收费达到10亿美元——由于本季度比特币下跌22%，因此触发较大规模的公允价值计提。净亏损扩大到13亿美元，较一年前的5.334亿美元显著恶化；调整后EBITDA为负10亿美元。从运营层面看，MARA一季度产出2,247个比特币，并将通电算力同比提升33%至72.2 EH/s，说明尽管加密经济性转弱，公司仍在持续扩建基础设施。展望未来，MARA的前景高度依赖比特币价格能否反弹，以及能否把电力接入能力转化为战略优势；计划收购Long Ridge Energy & Power可能有助于改善现金流，并强化其作为“更广义数字基础设施平台”的定位，而不只是纯粹的比特币矿工。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：11美元至15美元。中性前景。