United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA US)
- Shares closed on the 5dEMA with elevated volume for the week.
- RSI is near overbought levels, but MACD is still constructive.
- Long – Entry 20, Target 26, Stop 17
TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO US)
- Shares closed above the 5dEMA with elevated volume for the week.
- RSI is near overbought levels, but MACD is still constructive.
- Long – Entry 12, Target 14, Stop 11
Ley Choon Group Holdings Ltd. (LEY SP)
- Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Buy – Entry 0.106, Target 0.130, Stop 0.094
Sunpower Group Ltd. (SPWR SP)
- Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Buy – Entry 0.50, Target 0.64, Stop 0.43
China Mobile Ltd (941 HK)
- Shares closed at a five-months high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
- MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 86, Target 90, Stop 84
China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd (762 HK)
- Shares closed at a two-months high above the 100dEMA.
- MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 7.74, Target 8.36, Stop 7.43
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)
- 1Q26 Revenue: $399M, +684% YoY, beat estimates by $10.43M
- 1Q26 GAAP EPS: $2.11, best estimates by $2.82
- FY26 Guidance: Management raised 2026 contracted capacity expectations to more than 4 GW by year-end and increased annual capex guidance to $20B to $25B from $16B to $20B.
- Comment: This was an exceptionally strong quarter on growth. Revenue rose nearly eightfold, well above expectations, driven by very strong AI cloud demand and large customer traction, including Meta and Microsoft. The company also announced a new Pennsylvania site with 1.2 GW of power and said it expects to exceed 4 GW of contracted power by year-end, which reinforces that demand is not the issue. The main issue is capital intensity and concentration risk. First-quarter capex jumped to $2.5B from $544M a year earlier, and full-year capex guidance moved sharply higher to support expansion. That can pressure margins and raises the burden on execution, especially with meaningful exposure to a small number of very large AI customers. The stock reaction was clearly positive, with shares rising roughly 14% to 18% after the release. The principal variables to monitor are backlog and demand conversion into recurring revenue, capex discipline, customer concentration, and how quickly new capacity ramps into profitable utilization. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $180 to $230. Neutral Outlook.
Nebius Group N.V.（NBIS)
- 26财年第一季度营收：3.99亿美元，同比增长684%，超出预期1043万美元
- 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股收益：2.11美元，大幅优于预期2.82美元（注：此处“优于”指亏损少于预期或盈利超预期；结合上下文应为盈利远超市场预测）
- 26财年全年指引：上调2026年底已签约算力容量至逾4吉瓦（GW）；资本支出指引上调至200亿–250亿美元（原为160亿–200亿美元）
- 短评：本季度增长表现极为强劲。营收同比近八倍增长，显著超预期，主要受益于AI云服务需求爆发及头部客户高度认可，包括Meta与微软等大客户的深度合作。公司宣布新建宾夕法尼亚州数据中心（规划电力容量1.2 GW），并预计年底签约容量将突破4 GW，印证需求端毫无瓶颈。然而，核心挑战在于资本密集度与客户集中风险：Q1资本开支飙升至25亿美元（去年同期仅5.44亿美元），全年CapEx指引大幅上调，虽支撑扩张，但也可能压制短期利润率，并对执行能力提出极高要求；同时，收入高度依赖少数超大规模AI客户，带来集中度风险。财报发布后股价大涨14%–18%，反映市场对高增长逻辑的认可。后续关键变量包括：（1）积压订单向经常性收入的转化效率；（2）资本开支纪律与回报周期；（3）客户集中度是否随新客户拓展而降低；（4）新增产能能否快速实现高利用率并贡献利润。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：180美元至230美元。中性前景。
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
- 4Q26 Revenue: $35.28B, +8.3% YoY, miss estimates by $1.08B
- 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.01
- FY26 Guidance: Management indicated AI and cloud investment will exceed the previously announced RMB380B three-year plan, and stated cloud AI-related products now account for about 30% of external cloud revenue, with that mix expected to exceed 50% within a year.
- Comment: This was a mixed quarter. Cloud Intelligence was the clear highlight, with revenue up 38% YoY to RMB41.63B, driven by strong AI demand, while China e-commerce held up better than feared. That supports the view that Alibaba’s AI strategy is beginning to commercialize in a meaningful way. The main issue is profit quality. Adjusted EBITDA fell 61% YoY to RMB16.44B and adjusted EBITA fell 84% YoY to RMB5.10B as Alibaba increased spending on AI infrastructure, technology businesses, quick commerce, and user experience. Management was explicit that growth and market share matter more than margins at this stage. The stock reaction was positive, with U.S.-listed shares rising about 7% after the release, indicating the market is focusing more on cloud and AI monetization than on the near-term earnings pressure. The principal variables to monitor are cloud AI revenue mix, pace of margin compression from elevated investment, improvement in quick commerce economics, and whether core commerce can reaccelerate beyond low-single-digit growth. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $130 to $180. Positive Outlook.
阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（BABA)
- 26财年第四季度营收：352.8亿美元，同比增长8.3%，低于预期10.8亿美元
- 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.01美元（未提供预期值，但显著低于过往水平）
- 26财年全年指引：管理层表示，AI与云业务投资将超过此前公布的三年3800亿元人民币计划；目前AI相关产品已占外部云收入约30%，预计一年内占比将超50%
- 短评：本季度表现混合，但战略转型信号明确。亮点在阿里云智能板块：营收同比增长38%至416.3亿元人民币，强劲AI需求驱动商业化加速；中国电商核心业务表现亦好于预期，显示基本盘仍具韧性。这印证公司AI战略正从投入期迈向实质变现阶段。然而，盈利质量显著承压：调整后EBITDA同比大跌61%至164.4亿元人民币，调整后EBITA骤降84%至51亿元人民币，主因公司大幅加码AI基础设施、科技业务、即时零售（quick commerce）及用户体验投入。管理层明确表示，当前阶段增长与市场份额优先于利润率。尽管财报顶层不及预期，美股股价仍上涨约7%，反映市场更关注云与AI的长期变现潜力，而非短期利润压力。后续关键变量包括：（1）云业务中AI收入占比能否如期突破50%；（2）高投入导致的利润率压缩是否可控；（3）即时零售单位经济能否持续改善；（4）核心电商能否摆脱低个位数增长，实现再加速。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：130美元至180美元。积极前景。
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
- 3Q26 Revenue: $15.84B, +11.9% YoY, beat estimates by $280M
- 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.06, beat estimates by $0.02
- FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $62.8B to $63.0B and FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.27 to $4.29. Q4FY26 revenue guidance is $16.7B to $16.9B and non GAAP EPS guidance is $1.16 to $1.18.
- Comment: This was a strong quarter. Product revenue rose 17%, networking revenue rose 25%, and total product orders increased 35%, indicating broad strength rather than a narrow beat. AI infrastructure demand remained the key driver, with year to date AI orders reaching $5.3B and the company now expecting about $9B of AI orders for FY26. The main issue is that the improved outlook comes with heavier restructuring. Cisco plans an AI-focused reorganization that will affect fewer than 5% of employees and could cost up to $1B, with about $450M expected in the current quarter. The market looked through that because the demand signal was strong, and the stock rose roughly 15% to 17% after the release. The principal variables to monitor are AI order conversion into revenue, durability of hyperscaler spending, margin impact from the restructuring, and whether Cisco can sustain this stronger growth profile into FY27. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $100 to $150. Neutral Outlook.
思科系统公司（CSCO)
- 26财年第三季度营收：158.4亿美元，同比增长11.9%，超出预期2.8亿美元
- 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.06美元，超出预期0.02美元
- 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收至628亿–630亿美元，上调非GAAP EPS至4.27–4.29美元；第四季度营收指引167亿–169亿美元，EPS指引1.16–1.18美元
- 短评：本季度表现强劲，增长具有广泛基础。产品收入增长17%，网络业务收入大增25%，总产品订单同比增长35%，显示并非单一产品驱动，而是全面需求回暖。AI基础设施需求仍是核心引擎：2026财年迄今AI相关订单已达53亿美元，公司现预计全年AI订单将达约90亿美元。然而，更强前景伴随结构性调整：思科正推进聚焦AI的重组计划，影响员工少于5%，但可能产生最高10亿美元费用（其中约4.5亿美元计入当前季度）。市场选择忽略短期重组成本，聚焦强劲需求信号，财报后股价大涨15%–17%。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI订单向确认收入的转化效率；（2）超大规模客户（hyperscaler）支出是否持续；（3）重组对利润率的短期影响；（4）公司能否将此轮高增长态势延续至27财年。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：100美元至150美元。中性前景。
