Powering the AI Revolution
Chart of the Week:
Fed Meeting: A Dilemma for Any Future Chair
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, in line with expectations. At his Senate hearing, chair nominee Kevin Warsh reiterated that interest rates should remain the primary policy tool and expressed concerns over the size of the balance sheet.
Market Recap 1:
Rising Oil Weighs on Markets; Intel Lifts Semiconductor Stocks
Earlier this week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher to record highs, driven by gains in mega-cap and tech stocks. However, sentiment weakened after Trump instructed aides to prepare for an extended maritime blockade on Iran and demanded a halt to its nuclear program, raising concerns of prolonged conflict. Rising oil prices subsequently weighed on markets.
Market Recap 2:
FOMC Holds Rates; No Clear Dovish Shift
The FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, in line with expectations. However, three regional Fed presidents opposed including a dovish bias in the statement. Uncertainty remains over the scope and duration of oil-driven economic impacts, keeping the Fed aligned with a relatively hawkish stance.
What’s Trending:
Rising Commodity Prices Signal China Emerging from Deflation
China’s PPI has remained negative over the past two years but turned positive in March, rising 0.4% YoY. The gap between PPI and core CPI has narrowed from a peak of 4.4 ppts in mid-2025 to 0.6 ppts, tightening over the past nine months.
In Focus 1:
Big Four CSP Earnings in Focus; Markets Watch AI Execution
The four AI hyperscalers—Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft—reported earnings this week, with markets focused on AI investment execution.
In Focus 2:
Software Landscape Shifts Rapidly; Asian Tech Anchors the AI Revolution
AI’s impact extends beyond hyperscalers (CSPs) into the private AI market, where sentiment has turned more cautious. The loosening of OpenAI’s exclusive partnership with Microsoft, alongside reports of missed internal growth and revenue targets, has shifted market sentiment from momentum chasing to closer scrutiny. The software landscape remains highly dynamic.
