United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Unusual Machines, Inc (UMAC US)
- Shares closed on the 5dEMA with rising volume.
- RSI is constructive and MACD is about to turn positive.
- Long – Entry 15, Target 19, Stop 13
Mercury Systems Inc. (MRCY US)
- Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
- RSI is constructive and MACD is about to turn positive.
- Long – Entry 84, Target 100, Stop 76
Hong Leong Asia Ltd. (HLA SP)
- Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Buy – Entry 3.23, Target 3.45, Stop 3.12
Banyan Tree Holdings Limited (BTH SP)
- Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 10dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Buy – Entry 0.61, Target 0.65, Stop 0.59
Standard Chartered PLC (2888 HK)
- Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 10dEMA crossed the 100dEMA.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Long – Entry 186, Target 200, Stop 179
Agricultural Bank of China Limited (1288 HK)
- Shares closed at a high since November 2025, above the 5dEMA.
- MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 5.90, Target 6.40, Stop 5.65
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- 1Q26 Revenue: €8.77B, +13.3% YoY, beat estimates by €110M
- 1Q26 GAAP EPS: €7.15, beat estimates by €0.54
- 2Q26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue outlook to €36B to €40B from €34B to €39B previously, with gross margin guidance of 51% to 53%.
- Comment: The quarter was strong on both headline revenue and profitability. Total net sales reached €8.8B, gross margin was 53.0%, and net income was €2.8B. This was a clean operational beat and supports the view that ASML remains one of the clearest infrastructure beneficiaries of AI-related semiconductor capex. The most important takeaway was not the quarter itself, but the raised full-year outlook. Management lifted FY26 revenue guidance despite export control uncertainty, which indicates that demand from leading-edge foundry and memory customers remains strong enough to absorb policy friction. Demand for chips is currently outstripping supply, prompting customers to accelerate expansion plans. AI remains the core demand engine. ASML is effectively the bottleneck supplier for EUV lithography, which means continued investment by TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and memory players feeds directly into its order visibility. The company expects to ship 60 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, up about 25% from 2025, with a further increase implied for 2027. That provides unusually strong medium-term volume support for a capital equipment name. The principal risk remains China and broader export policy. ASML expects about 20% of 2026 sales to come from China, down from roughly one-third in 2025, and further U.S. restrictions remain an overhang. That said, management’s decision to raise guidance suggests it believes non-China demand can absorb at least part of any policy-related shortfall. A secondary caution is expectations. ASML entered the print after a sharp rally, and expectations around AI capex were already elevated. That matters because for a stock at this quality and valuation level, even a strong beat-and-raise can fail to drive immediate upside if investors were already positioned for it. U.S.-listed ASML shares fell 6.2% later as investors judged that the strong outlook was already priced in. Fundamentally, this was a very good quarter. Revenue beat, margins were strong, guidance was raised, and the AI capex cycle remains supportive. The key variables from here are whether AI demand continues to offset China policy risk, whether supply chain constraints limit upside conversion, and whether valuation caps near-term rerating. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $1300 to $1800. Positive Outlook.
ASML Holding N.V.（ASML)
- 26财年第一季度营收：87.7亿欧元，同比增长13.3%，超出预期1.1亿欧元
- 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股收益：7.15欧元，超出预期0.54欧元
- 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收预期至360–400亿欧元（此前为340–390亿欧元）；毛利率指引维持在51%–53%
- 短评：本季度在顶层收入与盈利能力上均表现强劲。总净销售额达88亿欧元，毛利率53.0%，净利润28亿欧元，是一次清晰的运营超预期，进一步巩固ASML作为AI驱动半导体资本支出核心基础设施受益者的地位。最大亮点并非当季表现，而是全年指引上调——尽管面临对华出口管制不确定性，管理层仍提升FY26营收目标，表明来自先进制程晶圆厂（如台积电、三星、英特尔）及存储厂商的需求足够强劲，足以吸收政策摩擦带来的扰动。当前芯片需求持续超过供给，客户正加速扩产，而ASML作为极紫外光刻（EUV），实质上构成产能扩张瓶颈。公司预计2026年将交付60台低数值孔径（low-NA）EUV系统，较2025年增长约25%，并暗示2027年将进一步增加，为这家设备商提供罕见的中期出货量可见性。主要风险仍来自中国及出口管制政策：ASML预计2026年来自中国的销售额占比将降至约20%（2025年约为三分之一），若美国进一步收紧限制，仍将构成压力。但指引上调本身表明，管理层相信非中国市场可部分抵消政策相关缺口。次要谨慎点在于市场预期已高：财报前股价经历大幅上涨，AI资本支出乐观情绪已充分定价，因此即便“超预期+上调指引”，亦未能触发即时上涨——美股上市ASML股价盘后下跌6.2%，反映投资者认为利好已兑现。基本面角度，本季极为扎实：收入超预期、利润率强劲、指引上调、AI周期持续支撑。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI相关需求能否持续对冲中国政策风险；（2）供应链是否制约订单向收入的转化；（3）当前高估值是否限制短期重估空间。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：1300美元至1800美元。积极前景。
Morgan Stanley (MS)
- 1Q26 Revenue: $20.58B, +16.0% YoY, beat estimates by $820M
- 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.43, beat estimates by $0.41
- 2Q26 Guidance: Management emphasized strong operating momentum across the integrated firm, particularly in Institutional Securities and Wealth Management.
- Dividend/Share Buybacks: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share. Morgan Stanley repurchased $1.75B of common stock in 1Q26.
- Comment: The quarter was strong across the franchise. Net revenues reached a record $20.6B, net income applicable to Morgan Stanley was $5.6B, and ROTCE was 27.1%. The expense efficiency ratio improved to 65% from 68% a year ago, indicating meaningful operating leverage even as the firm continued investing in its businesses. Institutional Securities was the main driver. Segment revenue rose to a record $10.7B from $9.0B a year ago. Investment Banking revenue increased 36% to $2.12B, with advisory nearly doubling to $978M, while Equity revenue rose 25% to a record $5.15B and Fixed Income increased 29% to $3.36B. This was a clean read-through that client activity, volatility, and M&A execution all worked in Morgan Stanley’s favor during the quarter. Wealth Management was also notably strong. Revenue reached a record $8.52B, with a 30.4% pre-tax margin, $118.4B of net new assets, and $53.7B of fee-based asset flows. Net interest income in Wealth Management rose to $2.17B from $1.90B a year ago, supported by lending growth and higher average sweep deposits. This matters because it reinforces the durability of Morgan Stanley’s earnings mix beyond capital markets. Investment Management was the only softer area. Revenue fell 4% to $1.54B as lower performance-based income and other revenues more than offset higher asset management fees on stronger average AUM. That is not a thesis breaker, but it does show that not every part of the platform is firing equally at present. Credit and capital were both sound. Provision for credit losses was only $98M at the firm level, although Institutional Securities did note certain commercial real estate loan assessments and higher macro uncertainty. Standardized CET1 stood at 15.1%, leaving capital return capacity intact. Shares rose after the release as investors responded to record trading revenue, stronger dealmaking, and another strong Wealth Management quarter. The print was high quality. The firm delivered broad-based strength across advisory, equities, fixed income, and wealth, while still showing discipline on efficiency and capital return. The principal variables to monitor are whether capital markets activity remains elevated into 2Q26, whether Wealth Management margins can stay around current levels, and whether commercial real estate-related credit costs remain contained. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $170 to $230. Neutral Outlook.
摩根士丹利（MS)
- 26财年第一季度营收：205.8亿美元，同比增长16.0%，超出预期8.2亿美元
- 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.43美元，超出预期0.41美元
- 26财年第二季度展望：管理层强调全公司运营动能强劲，尤其在机构证券（Institutional Securities）与财富管理（Wealth Management）业务
- 股息与资本返还：董事会宣布季度股息每股1.00美元；第一季度回购17.5亿美元普通股
- 短评：本季度为全平台强势表现。总营收创纪录达206亿美元，归属于摩根士丹利的净利润56亿美元，有形普通股权益回报率（ROTCE）高达27.1%；费用效率比率从去年同期68%改善至65%，显示在持续投资的同时仍实现显著运营杠杆。机构证券业务为核心驱动力：板块营收创纪录达107亿美元（去年同期90亿），其中投行业务收入大增36%至21.2亿美元——顾问收入近乎翻倍至9.78亿美元；股票业务收入增长25%至创纪录51.5亿美元；固收业务增长29%至33.6亿美元，反映客户交易活跃、市场波动及并购执行全面利好。财富管理同样亮眼：营收达创纪录85.2亿美元，税前利润率30.4%；净新增资产1184亿美元，基于收费的资产流入537亿美元；净利息收入从19亿美元增至21.7亿美元，受益于贷款增长及更高的平均扫款存款（sweep deposits），强化了其作为非资本市场依赖型盈利支柱的地位。投资管理为唯一疲软板块：营收下降4%至15.4亿美元，主因业绩报酬及其他收入减少，尽管资产管理费因AUM上升而增长——此属正常波动，不损整体逻辑。信用与资本状况稳健：全公司信贷损失拨备仅9800万美元；虽机构证券提及商业地产贷款评估趋严及宏观不确定性上升，但标准化CET1资本比率高达15.1%，支持持续资本返还。财报发布后股价上涨，投资者认可创纪录的交易收入、强劲并购表现及财富管理持续高质增长。本季质量极高：顾问、股票、固收、财富全面发力，同时保持成本纪律与资本回馈。后续关键变量包括：（1）资本市场活动能否在Q2维持高位；（2）财富管理利润率能否稳定在30%左右；（3）商业地产相关信用成本是否可控。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：170美元至230美元。中性前景。
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
- 1Q26 Revenue: $30.3B, +7.2% YoY, beat estimates by $350M
- 1Q26 GAAP EPS: $1.11, beat estimates by $0.09
- 2Q26 Guidance: Management commentary highlighted continued business momentum, while third-party transcript reporting indicated a higher full-year 2026 NII growth outlook of 6% to 8%.
- Dividend/Share Buybacks: The bank returned about $9.3B to shareholders in 1Q26, including roughly $2.0B in common dividends and $7.2B in share repurchases.
- Comment: The quarter was strong and broadly supported by both spread income and markets activity. Bank of America reported $30.3B of revenue, $8.6B of net income, and a 16.0% return on tangible common equity. This was a clear beat relative to expectations and confirms that the franchise entered 2026 with solid momentum. Net interest income remained a core positive. NII rose 9% YoY to $15.7B, which is important because it suggests the earnings beat was not solely driven by trading volatility. Consumer activity also remained healthy, with debit and credit card spending up 7%, supporting the view that the U.S. consumer has not rolled over meaningfully. Markets and investment banking were also strong. Sales and trading revenue increased 13% to $6.4B, with equities revenue up 30% and investment banking fees up 21%. That combination indicates Bank of America benefited from elevated client activity, while also participating in the broader rebound in advisory and underwriting conditions. The underlying operating backdrop appears healthy across the balance sheet as well. Consumer banking revenue grew 5%, supported by growth in deposits and loans, while credit quality remained solid with a 0.48% net charge-off ratio. There are also no reported losses on the bank’s $20B private credit exposure, which reduces one area of investor concern. The main limitation is that some of the upside was clearly tied to a volatility-rich trading environment. That is favorable for the reported quarter, but less durable than a clean multi-quarter acceleration in core banking earnings. In addition, the stock had already recovered into the print, so the hurdle for a further rerating is now somewhat higher. Shares rose after the release of about 1.6% and a same-day move of roughly 2% to 3% as investors responded to the beat and strong equities trading result. The read-through is constructive. BAC delivered a good mix of NII resilience, healthy consumer trends, strong trading, improving investment banking fees, and aggressive capital return. The key variables to monitor are whether NII momentum can remain intact if rates shift, whether consumer credit stays benign, and whether investment banking continues improving even if market volatility fades. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $48 to $65. Neutral Outlook.
美国银行（BAC)
- 26财年第一季度营收：303亿美元，同比增长7.2%，超出预期3.5亿美元
- 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股收益：1.11美元，超出预期0.09美元
- 26财年第二季度展望：管理层强调业务动能持续；第三方纪要显示，公司上调2026年全年净利息收入（NII）增长预期至6%–8%
- 股息与资本返还：第一季度向股东返还93亿美元，包括约20亿美元普通股股息及72亿美元股票回购
- 短评：本季度表现强劲，利差收入与市场业务双轮驱动。总营收303亿美元，净利润86亿美元，有形普通股权益回报率（ROTCE）达16.0%，显著超预期，确认公司进入2026年具备坚实动能。净利息收入（NII）：同比增长9%至157亿美元，表明盈利增长不仅依赖交易波动，更具基础韧性。消费者活动保持健康：借记卡与信用卡支出同比增长7%，支持“美国消费者尚未显著疲软”的判断。市场与投行业务同样亮眼：销售与交易收入增长13%至64亿美元，其中股票业务激增30%；投行业务费用收入上升21%，反映公司在客户活跃度提升及并购/承销环境回暖中充分受益。资产负债表整体稳健：消费者银行业务收入增长5%，存款与贷款规模扩大；信用质量良好，净冲销率仅0.48%；且其200亿美元私募信贷敞口未报告损失，缓解市场对该领域风险的担忧。主要局限在于，部分超预期源于高波动交易环境——虽利好当季财报，但可持续性弱于核心银行业务的持续加速。此外，股价在财报前已有所反弹，抬高了进一步重估的门槛。财报发布后股价上涨1.6%（当日涨幅约2%–3%），投资者认可NII韧性、消费健康、交易强势及资本返还力度。整体信号积极：BAC展现了NII稳健、消费趋势良好、交易强劲、投行改善、资本返还激进的多元优势。后续关键变量包括：（1）若利率路径变化，NII动能能否维持；（2）消费者信用是否持续良性；（3）即使市场波动回落，投行业务能否延续改善趋势。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：48美元至65美元。中性前景。
