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- FY25 landed well ahead of our initiation case.<\/strong> Revenue rose 38.4% YoY to HK$13.95bn, making FY25 PCP’s second highest revenue year and third highest profit year on record. Brand revenue grew 67.3% and VGA revenue rose 50.0%, more than offsetting softer non brand and other PC lines.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nManagement’s FY26 Doule Digit Sales Outlook Initially Looked Aggressive<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Brand VGA ASP was already US$493 in 1H25 and US$452 in 2H25, while formal guidance only points to around US$500 in FY26. We now think this should be read as a floor, not a ceiling, given management is minimizing MSRP models, exiting low end SKUs and pushing premium boards harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\nRaise FY26 Revenue Growth Forecast to +12.3% from – 15.2%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Just as importantly, we think the probability of a 2022 and 2023 style revenue collapse after FY26 is now lower, with the next consumer GPU refresh wave likely to start building again into 2H27 in our base case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\nValuation & Action<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
We maintain Outperform and raise our 12-month TP to S$2.54 from S$1.73. Better mix and pricing support FY26 growth, while our revised DCF now uses a stricter FCFF definition that strips out the import loan funding benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\nRisks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Weaker than expected sell through after price hikes, tighter GPU allocation, deeper OEM and ODM weakness, and a slower handoff into the next cycle. The Section 301 tariff item also remains unresolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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