{"id":84007,"date":"2026-01-14T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/?p=84007"},"modified":"2026-01-14T10:09:22","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T02:09:22","slug":"weekly-securities-newsletter-14-january-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/weekly-securities-newsletter-14-january-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Securities Newsletter: 14 January 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Solid Core, Diversified Your Yield<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Chart of the Week:
U.S. Targets Venezuela, Intensifying the Global Resource Battle and Fuel-Market Volatility\u200b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After President Trump ordered an airstrike on Venezuela, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro was captured and will face trial on narcoterrorism and related charges. The underlying motive stems from Venezuela\u2019s status as the country with the world\u2019s largest proven crude reserves. According to OPEC, Venezuela holds roughly 20% of global reserves at 303bn barrels\u2014surpassing even Saudi Arabia\u2019s 260bn barrels. Following the tariff announcement, U.S. imports of heavy crude from Mexico and Canada declined, and Trump stated the U.S. will transfer 30\u201350mn barrels from Venezuela\u2014highlighting Washington\u2019s intent to control the world\u2019s largest heavy-crude reserve base.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Market Recap 1:
Capital Flows Lift Major Equity Markets; Policy Expectations Drive Sector Gains\u200b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. December ISM manufacturing PMI slowed to47.9, below the expected 48.4, though new ordersshowed slight improvement. ISM services PMI roseto 54.4 on a sharp rise in new orders and hiringreturning to expansion, beating expectations (52.2)and last month\u2019s 52.6\u2014the highest since October2024. This indicates economic resilience and acontinued K-shaped pattern. Despite a mild pickupin geopolitical tensions, accommodative policycontinues to channel liquidity into major equitymarkets, pushing indexes higher. U.S. equityvolatility remains low; upcoming political events andlabor data warrant attention.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Market Recap 2:
Loose Liquidity and Rising Geopolitical Tensions Keep Metal Prices Hitting New Highs\u200b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. rate futures now imply two Fed cuts in 2026pushed beyond June. Over the past week, Treasuryyields\u2014except the 2Y\u2014have mostly drifted lower,and risk appetite supported gains in global high-yield credit. President Trump announced plans todeploy USD 200bn from Fannie Mae and FreddieMac to buy mortgage-backed securities\u00a0in order topush mortgage rates down. Ahead, labor data andthe upcoming Supreme Court ruling on IEEPAremain key\u2014if tariffs are overturned, Treasury yieldscould see heightened volatility.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What\u2019s Trending:
CES Highlights AI Hardware Ramp-Up; Edge Devices Power Physical-AI Development\u200b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

CES 2026 centered on three themes\u2014AI, digitalhealth, and automotive solutions\u2014all pointingtoward more concrete AI applications extendingfrom the cloud to edge devices, including AI PCs,humanoid robots, automotive systems, and smart-home appliances. Key updates in servers includedNvidia\u2019s Rubin chips entering mass production,AMD unveiling a new system to compete withNvidia\u2019s NVL72 (with an OpenAI procurementagreement), and Intel introducing its next-generationCore Ultra 300 CPU aimed at enhancing edge-computing performance.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In Focus 1:
Policy Direction Lifts Markets; Economic Momentum Supports Quality Bonds\u200b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. labor-market cooling leaves room for at leasttwo Fed cuts in 2026, making the U.S. one of the fewmajor economies expected to maintainaccommodative policy. In contrast, the ECB and BoJlean slightly hawkish. Meanwhile, expansionary fiscalpolicy across the U.S., Eurozone, and Australiacontinues to push major government-bond yieldshigher\u2014Germany\u2019s 10Y near 3% and Japan\u2019s 10Yabove 2%, the highest since 2011 and 1997. Thissteepening of yield curves may challenge issuers\u2019refinancing costs.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In Focus 2:
Quality Bonds Still Attractive; Diversified Allocation Reduces Concentration Risk\u200b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With the Fed maintaining its expected pace of ratecuts\u2014and balance-sheet runoff ending alongsideReserve Management Purchases\u2014the outlook forTreasury supply has shifted, helping dampen ratevolatility. This environment also supports tighter creditspreads for rate-sensitive investment-grade (IG)bonds. For 2025, IG performance was driven not onlyby credit-spread levels but also by changes inissuance. We estimate U.S. IG supply will rise 17% in2026 to USD 1.8tn. Focus on sectors with below-average net issuance and appealing spreads, such asfinancials, telecom, energy, and utilities.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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U.S. effective tariffs have climbed to 17%, marking the sharpest annual shift in decades, with year-end levels the highest since the 1930s. This has reshaped global supply chains. We estimate tariffs will drag GDP growth by 0.3ppt, though increased AI investment offsets much of the impact. Tariffs generate over USD 200bn in revenue\u20144% of total government income, vs. 2% in 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":78162,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-markets-weekly-updates"],"aioseo_notices":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929.jpg?wsr",851,1280,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-150x150.jpg?wsr",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-199x300.jpg?wsr",199,300,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-768x1155.jpg?wsr",768,1155,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-681x1024.jpg?wsr",681,1024,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929.jpg?wsr",851,1280,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929.jpg?wsr",851,1280,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Enya Tan","author_link":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/author\/enya-tankgi-com\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"U.S. effective tariffs have climbed to 17%, marking the sharpest annual shift in decades, with year-end levels the highest since the 1930s. This has reshaped global supply chains. We estimate tariffs will drag GDP growth by 0.3ppt, though increased AI investment offsets much of the impact. Tariffs generate over USD 200bn in revenue\u20144% of total…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84007"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84034,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84007\/revisions\/84034"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}