{"id":82158,"date":"2025-12-10T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/?p=82158"},"modified":"2025-12-10T09:18:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T01:18:52","slug":"weekly-securities-newsletter-10-december-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/weekly-securities-newsletter-10-december-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Securities Newsletter: 10 December 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Record High for Silver and Copper<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Chart of the Week:
U.S. Holiday Spending Surges, E-Commerce Takes the Lead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Adobe Analytics reported that with U.S. economic conditions turning less stable, consumers increasingly rely on AI to compare prices online, hunt for deals, and even defer purchases until discount days. This year\u2019s Black Friday online retail sales hit USD 11.8bn, up 9.1% YoY, a new record. Holiday-season online spending (Nov 1\u2013Dec 31) is projected to reach USD 253.4bn, up 5.3% YoY. Key trends: 1. \u201cBuy now, pay later\u201d is expected to drive spending growth. 2. AI-driven traffic to retail sites surged 805% YoY, delivering significant contribution. 3. Mobile payments remain dominant; roughly 55% of Black Friday online sales came from smartphones, totaling USD 6.5bn (+10% YoY).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Market Recap 1:
U.S. Manufacturing Weakens as Markets Await Fed Rate Signals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. November ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, marking a ninth straight month below the 50 contraction threshold. New orders, backlogs, and supplier deliveries all dropped sharply, while the prices index rose, keeping stagflation concerns alive. Although services PMI edged up from 52.4 to 52.6, ADP employment data weakened, driven by a notable pickup in small-business layoffs. Markets now assign an 89% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December Fed meeting, well above 63% a month ago. Kevin Hassett, Chair of the White House National Economic Council, is viewed as a leading candidate for Fed Chair; his dovish stance and close ties with Trump have strengthened expectations of future monetary easing, lifting U.S. equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Market Recap 2:
Japan Rate-Hike Expectations Lift Long-End JGB Yields; USD Softens, Bitcoin Volatility Rises<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

ADP \u201cmini nonfarm\u201d data showed U.S. November employment rose by 32k fewer jobs than the prior month, missing expectations for a 10k increase, reflecting softer conditions and more cautious hiring. While Fed rate-cut expectations have strengthened, long-end JGB yields jumped sharply, pulling global sovereign yields higher. Long-tenor rates rose more than short-tenor, pressuring bonds. The PBoC on Nov 29 issued a warning against all illegal activities related to digital currencies, weighing on Hong Kong\u2013listed digital-asset names.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What\u2019s Trending:
Rate-Hike Expectations Support JPY Strength; Domestic-Demand Stocks Less FX-Sensitive<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After the BOJ Governor sent a hawkish signal this week, markets have now priced in a 25 bps hike this month. The expected hike aims to ease concerns over JPY weakness, as an overly weak yen would intensify imported inflation and weigh on consumption. Japan\u2019s benchmark rate remains at 0.5%, the second lowest in the G20, leaving room for tightening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In Focus 1:
Industrial Demand Surge and Softer USD, Coupled With Supply Constraints, Drive Silver to New Highs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Silver recently hit an all-time high, rising over 90% YTD and outperforming gold. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) estimates this year\u2019s supply deficit will equal roughly 9% of annual demand, marking a third consecutive year of shortage. Beyond support from Fed rate-cut expectations and a weaker USD, silver mine output in Latin America has declined over the past decade due to closures, resource depletion, and infrastructure challenges, while demand from India, global investors, and industrial sectors has surged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In Focus 2:
Short-Term Copper Tightness Persists; Medium-Term Demand Momentum Softens on Economic Slowdown<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although President Trump exempted refined copper from tariffs, he announced the policy will be reviewed in 2H26, keeping markets cautious about potential future tariffs. Policy uncertainty has prompted metal importers to accelerate shipments, while tariff expectations and geopolitical arbitrage have pushed copper prices to new highs. Global AI infrastructure build-out and the energy transition are driving electricity demand higher, supporting copper consumption. Since 2022, China\u2019s property curbs but strong support for new-energy industries have created divergence between iron ore and copper prices. In the near term, China\u2019s policy backing keeps copper demand firm, though EV production growth has started to slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Nvidia briefly reignited market optimism as 3Q revenue reached USD 57bn, up 22% QoQ and 62% YoY, beating expectations on improved supply-chain throughput and stronger-than-expected GB300 sales versus GB200. Data-center revenue hit a record USD 51.2bn\u2014about 90% of total\u2014up 25% QoQ. GPU-related revenue rose 27% QoQ, dispelling concerns about slowing GPU demand, while networking revenue surged 162% YoY. Both segments set new historical highs. Better supply-chain efficiency also narrowed the gap between orders and deliveries, supporting earnings upgrades. Nvidia\u2019s robust guidance triggered a sharp AI-stock rebound. However, accounts receivable rose sharply\u2014from USD 23.065bn to USD 33.391bn\u2014reviving concerns about whether AI workloads can generate enough profit to justify massive capex. AI-bubble worries persist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":78162,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-markets-weekly-updates"],"aioseo_notices":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929.jpg?wsr",851,1280,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-150x150.jpg?wsr",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-199x300.jpg?wsr",199,300,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-768x1155.jpg?wsr",768,1155,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929-681x1024.jpg?wsr",681,1024,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929.jpg?wsr",851,1280,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/g9fb145868bbf4b2a0a600cc5191443399fbcb8b9a0187cdd7c7e76e4e43f03ce27420dc14de53e4d0b320ccd4e12316d_1280-582929.jpg?wsr",851,1280,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Enya Tan","author_link":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/author\/enya-tankgi-com\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Nvidia briefly reignited market optimism as 3Q revenue reached USD 57bn, up 22% QoQ and 62% YoY, beating expectations on improved supply-chain throughput and stronger-than-expected GB300 sales versus GB200. Data-center revenue hit a record USD 51.2bn\u2014about 90% of total\u2014up 25% QoQ. GPU-related revenue rose 27% QoQ, dispelling concerns about slowing GPU demand, while networking revenue…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82158"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82159,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82158\/revisions\/82159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kgieworld.sg\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}