TRIP.COM (TCOM US / 9961 HK)

Updated 14 April 2021

• The dual listing in Hong Kong is priced at HK$268, 19.52% discount to the initial price of HK$333. The public tranche subscription rate is 16x.
• Shares will start trading on Monday, 19 April. 
• The company is a leading one-stop travel platform globally, integrating  a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China, and increasingly for travelers around the world, to explore travel and get inspired, to make informed and cost-effective travel bookings, and to enjoy hassle-free, on-the-go support and share travel experience.
• While it reported net loss in 1Q and 2Q 2020 due to the negative impact of travel restrictions, earnings have recovered in 3Q and 4Q 2020. Looking into 2021, under the backdrop of supportive government policy towards opening inbound and outbound travel in 2H21,  China Tourism Academy expects outbound travel to reach 30% of 2019 level, and 100% by 2022, assuming normal progress of Covid-19 vaccination. 
• Valuations are currently attractive at 91x/24x/18x FY2021/22/23F and the company is forecasted to report earnings per share growth (EPS) of 85%/280%/33% in FY 2021/22/23F, according to consensus estimates. 

Financials highlights:

(RMB mn)	FY20	FY19	FY18
Revenue	18,316	35,666	30,965
YoY growth	-48.6%	15.2%	15.6%
Gross profit	14,285	28,294	24,641
YoY growth	-49.5%	14.8%	11.4%
Net profit	-3,269	6,998	1,096
YoY growth	N.M.	538.5%	-49.6%

Market share by gross merchandise volume as of 2019:

Global market		Chinese Domestic market
Players	Market share	Players	Market share
Trip.com	2.3%	Trip.com	13.7%
A	1.9%	A	3.8%
B	1.7%	B	2.6%
C	0.7%	C	0.9%
D	0.5%	D	0.6%
Total	7%	Total	21.5%

• The key risk is that global prolonged COVD-19 lockdowns will slow down the recovery of tourism.
• According to market consensus, the company’s performance will normalize in FY22. However, if quarantine measures or travel restrictions remain tight due to slow vaccination, full normalization will be delayed.  

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携程集团 (TCOM US / 9961 HK) 上市发行价为268港元

• 在香港二次上市的发行价为268港元，较发行价333港元低19.52%。公开部分认购率为16倍公开发售录得超额认购逾16倍。股票将于4月19日星期一开始交易。
• 公司是全球领先的一站式旅行平台，该平台可提供一套完整的旅行产品、服务及差异化的旅行内容。对于中国游客而言，以及对于越来越多的世界各地的游客而言，公司是其首选的旅行平台，并鼓励其进行旅行探索，激发其旅行灵感，帮助其获取全面的信息作出高性价比的旅行预订，为其提供随时随地的旅程中的支持，并鼓励其分享旅行体验。
• 虽然由于旅行限制的负面影响，该公司在2020年第一季度和第二季度出现了净亏损，但在2020年第三季度和第四季度盈利已经恢复。展望2021年，在政府大力支持21年下半年开放入境和出境旅游的背景下，中国旅游研究院预计，在新冠肺炎疫苗接种正常进行的情况下，出境旅游将达到2019年水平的30%，到2022年达到100%。
• 目前，该公司市盈率分别为21/22/23财年的91倍/24倍/18倍，其估值具有吸引力，根据市场共识，预计在21/22/23财年每股收益同比增长分别为85%/280%/33%。
• 主要财务状况：

(百万人民币)	FY20	FY19	FY18
营业收入	18,316	35,666	30,965
同比	-48.6%	15.2%	15.6%
毛利润	14,285	28,294	24,641
同比	-49.5%	14.8%	11.4%
净利润	-3,269	6,998	1,096
同比	无意义	538.5%	-49.6%

• 截至2019年按总商品交易总额的市场份额：

全球		中国国内
公司	市场份额	公司	市场份额
携程集团	2.3%	携程集团	13.7%
A	1.9%	A	3.8%
B	1.7%	B	2.6%
C	0.7%	C	0.9%
D	0.5%	D	0.6%
总计	7%	总计	21.5%

• 主要风险是，全球持续的封关将减缓旅游业的复苏。根据市场共识，该公司的业绩将在22财年恢复正常。然而，如果由于疫苗接种缓慢，检疫措施或旅行限制仍然严格，业务全面正常化将被推迟。