Technical Analysis – 8 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Shopify, Inc. (SHOP US)

• Shares closed at a high since Feb 2024. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 84.0 Target 94.0, Stop 79.0

Docusign, Inc. (DOCU US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 75.0 Target 85.0, Stop 70.0

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Sheng Siong Group Ltd (SSG SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 1.62, Target 1.72, Stop 1.57

Yanlord Land Group Ltd (YLLG SP)

• Shares closed at a three-week high above the 5dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
• Long – Entry 0.730 Target 0.780, Stop 0.705

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Bank of Communications Co Ltd (3328 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5wEMA.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 6.00, Target 6.48, Stop 5.76

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd (1398 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA with rising volume.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 4.8, Target 5.2, Stop 4.6

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Vistra Corp (VST)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $6.28B, +53.9% YoY, beat estimates by $1.27B
• 3Q24 EPS: $1.24, beat estimates by $0.08
• 3Q24 Dividend: Vistra declares $0.2215/share quarterly dividend, 0.9% increase from prior dividend of $0.2195; Forward yield 0.71%; Payable Dec. 31; for shareholders of record Dec. 20; ex-div Dec. 20.
• 4Q24 Share buyback: Vistra’s BOD authorized an additional $1.0bn of share repurchases. As of November 4, 2024, ~$2.2bn of the share repurchase authorization remains available, which is expected to complete by year-end 2026.
• 4Q24 Guidance: Raise and narrow 2024 ongoing operations Adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations Adjusted FCF guidance ranges to $5.0bn– $5.2bn and to $2.65bn – $2.85bn, respectively, excluding any potential benefit from the nuclear production tax credit.
• FY25 guidance: Initiate 2025 ongoing operations Adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations Adjusted FCF guidance ranges of $5.5bn– $6.1bn and $3.0bn – $3.6bn, respectively.
• Comment: Vistra Corp delivered strong quarterly results, provided initial guidance for 2025, and announced an additional $1 billion for its share repurchase program. During the quarter, the company made significant progress in solar, energy storage, and nuclear initiatives. It secured two power purchase agreements for new solar facilities and expanded its nuclear portfolio by agreeing to acquire the remaining 15% minority interest in its Vistra Vision subsidiary. Looking ahead, Vistra is in discussions with two major companies to develop new gas plants supporting a data center project, potentially driving additional sales. The company is also actively pursuing deals across multiple sites in its portfolio. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $125 to $155. Positive Outlook.

维斯达能源 (VST)

• 24财年第三季营收：62.8亿美元，同比增幅53.9%，超预期12.7亿美元
• 24财年第三季每股盈利：1.24美元，超预期0.08美元
• 24财年第三季股息：维斯达宣布派发每股0.2215美元的季度股息，较先前派发的每股0.2195美元增加0.9%；远期股息率为0.71%；12月31日付息日；12月20日为股东登记日和除息日。
• 24财年第四季股票回购：维斯达董事会批准了另外10亿美元的股票回购。截至2024年11月4日，约有22亿美元的股票回购授权仍然可用，预计将于2026年底完成。
• 24年第四季度指引：将2024年持续经营调整后EBITDA和持续经营调整后自由现金流指引范围分别提高和缩小至50亿美元至52亿美元和26.5亿美元至28.5亿美元，不包括核电生产税收抵免带来的任何潜在利好。
• 25财年指引：初步估计2025年持续经营调整后EBITDA和持续经营调整后自由现金流的指引范围分别为55亿美元至61亿美元和30亿美元至36亿美元。
• 短评：维斯达能源公布了强劲的季度业绩，提供了2025年的初步指引，并宣布为其股票回购计划增加10亿美元。本季度，该公司在太阳能、能源储存和核能方面取得了重大进展。它获得了两个新的太阳能设施的电力购买协议，并通过同意收购其子公司Vistra Vision剩余15%的少数股权来扩大其核能投资组合。展望未来，维斯达正在与两家大公司讨论开发新的天然气厂，以支持一个数据中心项目，这可能会推动额外的销售。该公司还在其投资组合中的多个网站上积极寻求交易。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：125至155美元。中性前景。

Cameco Corp (CCJ)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $721M, +25.4% YoY, miss estimates by $31.2M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.01, not comparable to consensus of $0.35.
• FY24 Guidance: Continue to expect strong cash flow generations. Update exchange rate assumption of US$1.00 to CDN$1.35, compared to US$1.00 to CDN$1.30 previously. The average realized price of uranium is expected to be higher at $77.80 per pound, compared to $74.70 per pound previously; Expect revenue to be between $3.01bn to $3.16bn, compared to between $2.85bn to $3.0bn previously; Expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $460mn and $530mn, compared to $445mn to $510mn previously.
• Comment: Cameco reported weaker-than-expected results but raised its revenue forecast for the year and outlined plans to increase shareholder payouts. With higher production anticipated from its McArthur River/Key Lake operations in northern Saskatchewan, the company now expects to produce up to 23.1 million pounds from its owned and operated sites this year, up from its previous target of 22.4 million pounds. Additionally, investments in nuclear energy by tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, aiming to meet the demands of generative AI, are likely to drive both uranium demand and prices, benefiting Cameco. The company also intends to significantly increase its dividend over the next few years, supported by improved cash flow and rising uranium prices. Cameco has proposed a dividend growth plan to its board, targeting at least double last year’s payout, from C$0.12 per share to C$0.24 per share, over the 2023-2026 period. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $52 to $60. Positive Outlook.

卡梅科 (CCJ)

• 24财年第三季营收：7.21亿美元，同比增长25.4%，逊预期3,120万美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.01美元，与市场预期得0.35美元盈利不可比较
• 24财年指引：继续预期产生强劲的现金流。将美元兑加元汇率假设从之前的1美元兑换1.30加元更新为1.35加元。预计铀的平均实现价格将为每磅77.80美元，高于之前的每磅74.70美元；预计收入将在30.1亿美元至31.6亿美元之间，高于之前的28.5亿美元至30亿美元；预计调整后的EBITDA将在4.6亿美元至5.3亿美元之间，高于之前的4.45亿美元至5.1亿美元。
• 短评：卡梅科公司报告的业绩逊于预期，但上调了全年营收预期，并概述了增加股东分红的计划。随着该公司位于加拿大萨斯喀彻温省北部的麦克阿瑟河/基湖矿场的产量预期增加，该公司目前预计今年从自有和运营的矿场的产量将达到2,310万磅，高于此前的2,240万磅的目标。此外，微软、亚马逊和谷歌等科技巨头对核能的投资，旨在满足生成型AI的需求，这可能会推动铀的需求和价格，从而使卡梅科受益。该公司还计划在未来几年大幅提高其股息，这将得到改善的现金流和上升的铀价格的支持。卡梅科已向董事会提出了分红增长计划，目标是在2023年至2026年期间将分红至少提高一倍，从每股0.12加元提高到每股0.24加元。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：52至60美元。积极前景。

DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.1B, +39.2% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.17, beat estimates by $0.07
• FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue in the range of $4.85bn to $4.95bn vs consensus of $5.12bn, and compared to $5.05bn to $5.25bn previously. The updated FY24 revenue guidance range equates to a YoY growth of 32% to 35%.
• FY25 Guidance: Expect FY25 revenue to be between $6.2bn to $6.6bn vs consensus of $6.26bn, which equates to approx. 31% YoY growth; Expect FY25 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $900mn to $1.0bn.
• Comment: DraftKings reported mixed results for 3Q24. While revenue came in below market expectations, management emphasized robust top-line growth driven by the return of the NFL and college football seasons. Monthly Unique Payers (MUPs) reached 3.6 million on average, a 55% increase over 3Q23, reflecting strong customer acquisition and retention across its Sportsbook and iGaming platforms. Growth was also supported by Sportsbook’s expansion into new markets and the recent acquisition of Jackpocket. With several major sports converging on the calendar, DraftKings is well-positioned to sustain this momentum as it enhances its leading sportsbook app with more live betting features and new NBA market options. However, the company lowered its FY24 revenue outlook, pointing to a challenging start to 4Q24 amid persistent pressures on consumer spending. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $33 to $43. Neutral Outlook.

DraftKings (DKNG)

• 24财年第三季营收：11亿美元，同比增长39.2%，逊预期1,000万美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.17美元，超预期0.07美元
• 24财年指引：预计营收在48.5亿美元至49.5亿美元之间，低于分析师预期的51.2亿美元，而此前的预期为50.5亿美元至52.5亿美元。更新后的2024财年营收指引范围相当于年同比增长32%至35%。
• 25财年指引：预计2025财年营收将在62亿美元至66亿美元之间，高于共识预期的62.6亿美元，相当于同比增长约31%；预计2025财年调整后的息税折旧及摊销前利润将在9亿美元至10亿美元之间。
• 短评：DraftKings在24年第三季度报告了混合的业绩。尽管营收低于市场预期，但管理层强调，强劲的营收增长是由美国职业橄榄球联盟（NFL）和大学美式足球赛季的回归驱动的。平均月活跃用户（MUPs）达到360万，较23年第三季度增长55%，反映了其体育博彩和在线赌博平台在客户获取和留存方面的强劲表现。增长还得益于体育博彩业务在新市场的扩张以及最近收购的杰克波克特（Jackpocket）。随着多个主要体育赛事即将在日程上亮相，随着达拉斯金公司通过在其领先的体育博彩应用中添加更多现场投注功能和新的NBA市场选项来提升其地位，该公司有望保持这一势头。然而，该公司下调了24财年的营收预期，指出由于消费者支出持续承压，第四季度的开局将面临挑战。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：33至43美元。中性前景。

Block Inc (SQ)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $5.98B, +6.4% YoY, miss estimates by $280M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.88, in-line with estimates
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect gross profit of $2.31bn, representing a growth of 14% YoY; expects adjusted EBITDA to be $725mn, representing an EBITDA margin of 31%; expects adjusted operating income at $355mn, representing an operating income margin of 15%.
• Comment: Block reported lower-than-expected revenue, indicating softer consumer spending, despite exceeding profit expectations thanks to disciplined cost management. The company has cut jobs, reduced its real estate footprint, and scaled back discretionary spending to drive profitable growth. Cash App, its popular mobile payment platform and key profitability driver, generated $1.31 billion in gross profit, up 21% year-over-year. Block also emphasized that its lending products leverage AI for quicker, smarter underwriting decisions, helping the company manage risk and keep loss rates low across offerings. Looking ahead, Block plans to transform Cash App Cards into a stronger alternative to credit cards by integrating Afterpay. As part of its cost-cutting strategy, the company is also scaling back investment in Tidal, its music-streaming service, and winding down TBD, its Bitcoin-focused division, to further boost profitability and operational efficiency. With consumer spending normalizing from post-pandemic highs, a potential soft economic landing could improve consumer confidence and support renewed growth in spending. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $70 to $84. Positive Outlook.

Block (SQ)

• 24财年第三季营收：59.8亿美元，同比增长6.4%，逊预期2.8亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.88美元，符合预期
• 24财年指引：预计毛利润为23.1亿美元，同比增长14%；预计调整后的EBITDA为7.25亿美元，EBITDA利润率为31%；预计调整后的营业收入为3.55亿美元，营业利润率为15%。
• 短评：Block公布的收入低于预期，表明消费者支出疲软，尽管由于严格的成本管理，利润超出预期。该公司已经裁员，减少了房地产业务，并缩减了可自由支配的支出，以推动盈利增长。该公司颇受欢迎的移动支付平台Cash App创造了13.1亿美元的毛利润，同比增长21%。Block还强调，其贷款产品利用人工智能来做出更快、更明智的承销决策，帮助公司管理风险，并将所有产品的损失率保持在较低水平。展望未来，Block计划通过整合Afterpay，将现金应用卡转变为比信用卡更强大的替代品。作为削减成本战略的一部分，该公司还缩减了对其音乐流媒体服务Tidal的投资，并逐步关闭了其专注于比特币的部门TBD，以进一步提高盈利能力和运营效率。随着消费者支出从大流行后的高点开始正常化，潜在的经济软着陆可能会提振消费者信心，并支持支出的重新增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：70至84美元。积极前景。

Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $874M, -34.8% YoY, miss estimates by $136M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.99, miss estimates by $0.09
• 4Q24 Guidance: Reaffirm FY24 guidance. Expect production of between 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles; Expect delivery of between 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles and $1,200mn in capital expenditures; Revise annual adjusted EBITDA guidance to between a -$2.825bn loss to a -$2.875bn loss.
• Comment: Rivian Automotive reported weaker-than-expected results, marking its first quarterly revenue decline since going public three years ago. However, the company reassured investors that it remains on track to achieve gross profitability in the fourth quarter, supported by cost reductions and a significant rise in sales of green car credits, despite challenges from parts shortages and soft electric vehicle (EV) demand. Rivian has been actively cutting costs by renegotiating supplier contracts and optimizing manufacturing processes to improve its profitability. Cost control is essential for Rivian and other EV makers, as high borrowing costs have led consumers to favour more affordable petrol-electric hybrids over fully battery-powered options. Looking ahead, Rivian plans to launch more budget-friendly models in 2026 to expand its customer base. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $9.0 to $11.5. Neutral Outlook.

Rivian 汽车 (RIVN)

• 24财年第三季营收：8.74亿美元，同比下降34.8%，逊预期1.36亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.99美元，逊预期0.09美元
• 24财年第四季指引：重申2024财年指导。预计产量在47,000至49,000辆之间；预计交付50,500至52,000辆汽车，资本支出为12亿美元；将年度调整后EBITDA指引调整至亏损28.25亿美元至亏损28.75亿美元之间。
• 短评：Rivian 汽车公布的业绩低于预期，这是该公司自三年前上市以来首次出现季度收入下滑。然而，该公司向投资者保证，尽管面临零部件短缺和软电动汽车需求的挑战，但在成本削减和绿色汽车信贷销售大幅增长的支持下，该公司仍有望在第四季度实现毛盈利。Rivian一直在通过重新谈判供应商合同和优化制造流程来积极削减成本，以提高盈利能力。对于里维安和其他电动汽车制造商来说，成本控制至关重要，因为高昂的借贷成本导致消费者更青睐更实惠的油电混合动力车，而不是全电池供电的选择。展望未来，Rivian计划在2026年推出更多预算友好型车型，以扩大其客户群。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：9.0至11.5美元。中性前景。

Unity Software Inc (U)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $446.52M, -18.0% YoY, beat estimates by $18.32M
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.31, beat estimates by $0.08
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $422.0mn to $427.0mn versus the analyst consensus of $424.90mn.
• FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $1.70bn to $1.71bn versus the analyst consensus of $1.77bn, compared to $1.68bn to $1.69bn previously; Expect adjusted EBITDA of $363 to $368mn compared to $340mn to $350mn previously.
• Comment: Unity reported stronger-than-expected results despite an 18% year-over-year decline in revenue. The company appointed Steve Collins as CTO and Jarrod Yahes as CFO, bringing fresh leadership to its technology and finance teams. Additionally, Unity introduced a price increase for all Unity Pro and Enterprise customers, effective January 1, 2025, applying at purchase, renewal, or upgrade. Since announcing these changes, Unity has observed positive renewal trends and early adoption of Unity 6. In the long term, this pricing strategy is anticipated to support top-line growth. Unity has accelerated product releases within its Grow business, focusing on expanding user acquisition, enhancing automated ROAS campaigns across ad networks, and diversifying ad placements to improve effectiveness. Management also highlighted AI’s role in increasing returns for advertising clients, which strengthens Unity’s value proposition. While these initiatives are expected to drive longer-term growth, Unity’s 4Q24 outlook indicates the company may continue to face consumption challenges in the near term. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $18 to $25. Neutral Outlook.

Unity软件 (U)

• 24财年第三季营收：4.44652亿美元，同比下降18.0%，超预期1,832万美元
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股亏损：0.31美元，超预期0.08美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计营收为4.22亿至4.27亿美元，分析师预期为4.2490亿美元。
• 24财年指引：预计营收为17.7亿美元至17.1亿美元，分析师预期为17.7亿美元，此前预期为16.8亿美元至16.9亿美元；预计调整后EBITDA为3.63亿美元至3.68亿美元，而此前为3.4亿美元至3.5亿美元。
• 短评：Unity公布了强于预期的业绩，尽管收入同比下降了18%。该公司任命Steve Collins为首席技术官，Jarrod Yahes为首席财务官，为其技术和财务团队带来了新的领导。此外，从2025年1月1日起，Unity为所有Unity Pro和企业用户推出了价格上涨，适用于购买、续订或升级。自从宣布这些变化以来，Unity已经观察到积极的更新趋势和早期采用Unity 6。从长期来看，这种定价策略预计将支持营收增长。Unity在其Grow业务中加速了产品发布，专注于扩大用户获取，在广告网络中增强自动化ROAS活动，并使广告位置多样化以提高效果。管理层还强调了人工智能在提高广告客户回报方面的作用，这加强了Unity的价值主张。虽然这些举措有望推动长期增长，但Unity的24年第四季度前景表明，该公司可能在短期内继续面临消费挑战。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：18至25美元。中性前景。

Arista Networks Inc (ANET)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.81B, +19.9% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.40, beat estimates by $0.32
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of between $1.85B to US$1.90B, vs consensus of $1.82B, non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 63% to 64% and non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 44%.
• Comment: For the third quarter, Arista Networks reported a profit of US$747.9mn, US$2.33 per share, with adjusted earnings of US$2.40 per share, beating the US$2.08 estimate. Revenue grew 7.1% to US$1.81bn, and the adjusted gross margin improved to 64.6% from 63.1% a year ago, fuelled by AI-driven demand for networking equipment. Arista Networks projected higher-than-expected fourth quarter revenue, forecasting US$1.85bn to US$1.90bn, surpassing analysts’ estimate of US$1.81bn. Investments in AI technologies have boosted the need for data centres, benefiting Arista’s Ethernet switches and routers. The company announced a four-for-one stock split effective 4 December to attract more investors. With the improving interest rate environment, more enterprise customers are expected to upgrade their networking systems, which should further boost Arista’s revenue. Additionally, the stock split will make its shares more accessible to retail investors. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $390 to $450. Positive Outlook.

Arista 网络 (ANET)

• 24财年第三季营收：18.1亿美元，同比增长19.9%，超预期5,000万美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.4美元，超预期0.32美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计收入在18.5亿至19.9亿美元之间，而市场预期为18.2亿美元，Non-GAAP毛利率约为63%至64%，Non-GAAP营业利润率约为44%。
• 短评：第三季度Arista 网络报告利润为7.479亿美元，每股2.33美元，调整后每股收益为2.40美元，超过了2.08美元的预期。营收增长7.1%至18.1亿美元，调整后毛利率从一年前的63.1%提高至64.6%，这得益于人工智能驱动的网络设备需求。Arista 网络预计第四季度收入高于预期，预计为18.5亿至19.9亿美元，超过分析师预期的18.1亿美元。对人工智能技术的投资提高了对数据中心的需求，使Arista的以太网交换机和路由器受益。为了吸引更多投资者，该公司宣布从12月4日起进行一股四股拆股。随着利率环境的改善，预计更多的企业客户将升级他们的网络系统，这将进一步提高Arista的收入。此外，股票分割将使散户投资者更容易获得其股票。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：390至450美元。积极前景。

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $698.5M, +40.7% YoY, beat estimates by $34.51M
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: -$0.31, beat estimates by $0.03
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of between $770M and $810M, or $790M in the middle of the range, versus the average estimate of $785M. Affirm is guiding to GMV in the range of $9.35B to $9.75B vs analysts’ consensus of $9.48B.
• Comment: Affirm reported better-than-expected fiscal first quarter results, with a loss per share of US$0.31, beating the estimated loss of US$0.35, and revenue of US$698mn, surpassing expectations of US$664mn. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 35% YoY to US$7.6bn, and revenue grew 41% to US$698mn. Revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) reached US$285mn, exceeding previous guidance. Affirm expects to achieve GAAP profitability by 4Q25 and projects second quarter revenue between US$770mn and US$810mn, with GMV between US$9.35bn and US$9.75bn. The company’s partnerships with Apple, Amazon, and Shopify have supported its growth. Furthermore, Affirm’s high-quality underwriting, particularly for larger, interest-bearing purchases, differentiates it from competitors in the commoditized BNPL space. Looking ahead, as the interest rate environment continues to improve alongside the holiday season approaching, we anticipate higher spending on such BNPL applications during the current quarter. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $45 to $55. Positive Outlook.

Affirm 控股 (AFRM)

• 25财年第一季营收：6.985亿美元，同比增长40.7%，超预期3,451万美元
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股亏损：0.31美元，超预期0.03美元
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收在7.7亿美元至8.1亿美元之间，或介于中间的7.9亿美元，而平均预期为7.85亿美元。Affirm的商品交易总额指引在93.5亿美元至97.5亿美元之间，而分析师的共识是94.8亿美元。
• 短评：Affirm公布了好于预期的第一财季业绩，每股亏损0.31美元，超过了预期的亏损0.35美元，收入6.98亿美元，超过了预期的6.64亿美元。商品交易总额（GMV）同比增长35%至76亿美元，收入增长41%至6.98亿美元。收入减去交易成本（RLTC）达到2.85亿美元，超过此前的预期。Affirm预计到2015年第四季度实现GAAP盈利，预计第二季度收入在7.7亿美元至8.1亿美元之间，GMV在93.5亿美元至97.5亿美元之间。该公司与苹果、亚马逊和Shopify的合作关系支持了它的增长。此外，Affirm的高质量承保，特别是对于较大的有息购买，将其与商品化的BNPL领域的竞争对手区分开来。展望未来，随着假日季节的临近，利率环境继续改善，我们预计本季度此类先买后付应用程序的支出将会增加。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：45至55美元。积极前景。

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.51B, +13.5% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.63, beat estimates by $0.11
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect to generate revenue in the range of $1.56B to $1.62B in the fourth quarter, the midpoint of which is in line with analysts’ average estimate of $1.59B.
• FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue for fiscal year 2024 between $5.86B and $5.92B, up from its earlier forecast of $5.8B to $5.9B. Analysts expect $5.86B in revenue.
• Comment: Fortinet delivered Q3 results that exceeded estimates with revenue slightly exceeding estimates at US$1.51bn and earnings of US$0.63 per share. Fortinet’s Q4 revenue forecast aligned with analysts’ expectations, with the company expecting revenue of between US$1.56bn to US$1.62bn compared to estimates of US$1.59bn. High-interest rates and economic uncertainty are curbing enterprise spending, while competition from larger cybersecurity firms like Palo Alto Networks is limiting Fortinet’s growth. In September, Fortinet also reported a data breach affecting a small number of customer files, though it confirmed no malicious impact. For the full year 2024, the company raised its 2024 revenue outlook to between US$5.86bn and US$5.92bn. Investors remain concerned about growing competition in the cybersecurity sector and enterprise demand, which may impact its revenue growth in the current quarter. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $75 to $85. Neutral Outlook.

飞塔信息 (FTNT)

• 24财年第三季营收：15.1亿美元，同比增长13.5%，超预期3,000万美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.63美元，超预期0.11美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季度营收将在15.6亿美元至16.2亿美元之间，中间值与分析师平均预期的15.9亿美元一致。
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季度营收将在15.6亿美元至16.2亿美元之间，中间值与分析师平均预期的15.9亿美元一致。
• 短评：飞塔信息公布的第三季度业绩超出预期，收入略高于预期，达到15.1亿美元，每股收益0.63美元。飞塔的第四季度收入预测与分析师的预期一致，该公司预计收入在15.6亿美元至16.2亿美元之间，而此前的预期为15.9亿美元。高利率和经济不确定性抑制了企业支出，而来自帕洛阿尔托网络（Palo Alto Networks）等大型网络安全公司的竞争也限制了飞塔信息的增长。今年9月，飞塔信息也报告了一起影响少量客户文件的数据泄露事件，但证实没有恶意影响。对于2024年全年，该公司将2024年的收入预期上调至58.6亿美元至59.2亿美元之间。投资者仍然担心网络安全领域日益激烈的竞争和企业需求，这可能会影响其当前季度的收入增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：75至85美元。中性前景。

Airbnb Inc (ABNB)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $3.73B, +9.7% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.13, miss estimates by $0.02
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect to deliver revenue of $2.39B to $2.44B, representing YoY growth of 8% to 10%, inclusive of a modest foreign exchange tailwind. Anticipate implied take rate in Q4 will be slightly lower on a YoY basis, primarily due to one-time benefits recognized from unused gift cards in 4Q23. Excluding one-time benefits related to gift cards in 4Q23, revenue growth in 4Q24 would be approximately two percentage points higher.
• FY24 Guidance: Expect to deliver an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of approximately 35.5% and a full-year 2024 Free Cash Flow Margin several points above its Adjusted EBITDA Margin. Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Margin is expected to decline relative to the same time period last year due to higher marketing and product development expenses.
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect YoY growth rate of revenue to be negatively impacted by the comparison to 1Q24, which benefited from both the timing of Easter and inclusion of Leap Day. For the full-year 2025, expect to continue to pursue growth initiatives, including offering new products and services alongside expanding in global markets.
• Comment: Airbnb reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue narrowly surpassing estimates at US$3.73bn, up 10% YoY, but earnings per share slightly missed estimates by US$0.02 at US$2.13. Increased marketing expenses in underdeveloped markets like Brazil and Japan led to a 27.5% jump in sales and marketing costs. Nights and experiences booked grew 8%, driven by strong gains in Asia-Pacific and Latin America by 19% and 15% respectively. Looking ahead, Airbnb forecasts Q4 revenue of US$2.39bn to US$2.44bn, expecting an increase in bookings alongside a modest rise in average daily rates, which were US$164 in Q3, up 1% from the prior year. Its implied take rate remained flat at 18.6%, balanced by service fee revenue and customer service investments. With a projected increase in daily rates and demand, we expect continued demand for its listings through Q4. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $135 to $150. Neutral Outlook.

爱彼迎 (ABNB)

• 24财年第三季营收：37.3亿美元，同比增长9.7%，超预期1,000万美元
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：2.13美元，超预期0.2美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预预计营收为23.9亿美元至24.4亿美元，同比增长8%至10%，其中包括适度的外汇利好。预计第四季度的隐含接受率将略低于去年同期，主要是由于第四季度未使用礼品卡确认的一次性收益。不包括23年第四季度与礼品卡相关的一次性福利，24年第四季度的收入增长将高出约两个百分点。
• 24财年指引：预计调整后EBITDA利润率约为35.5%，2024年全年自由现金流利润率比调整后EBITDA利润率高出几个百分点。由于较高的营销和产品开发费用，预计第四季度调整后的EBITDA利润率将相对于去年同期下降。
• 25年第一季度指引：预计收入同比增长率将受到与24年第一季度相比的负面影响，这得益于复活节和闰日的时间安排。对于2025年全年，预计将继续追求增长计划，包括提供新产品和服务，同时扩大全球市场。
• 短评：爱彼迎公布的第三季度业绩喜忧参半，营收勉强超过预期，达到37.3亿美元，同比增长10%，但每股收益略低于预期，为2.13美元，比预期低0.02美元。巴西和日本等欠发达市场的营销费用增加，导致销售和营销成本飙升27.5%。在亚太地区和拉丁美洲的强劲增长推动下，预订的夜数和体验数分别增长了19%和15%。展望未来，爱彼迎预计第四季度的收入为23.9亿美元至24.4亿美元，预计预订量将增加，平均日房价也会小幅上涨，第三季度的平均日房价为164美元，比去年同期增长1%。在服务费收入和客户服务投资的平衡下，其隐含采用率保持在18.6%。随着每日房价和需求的预计增长，我们预计第四季度对其房源的需求将持续增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：135至150美元。中性前景。